Sunday, April 14, 2024

04/14 Links: The Real War in the Middle East Comes into Focus; Israel-Arab Normalization Proves Its Worth; Hamas rejects hostage deal

From Ian:

Matti Friedman: The Real War in the Middle East Comes into Focus
Last night should make clear, for those still in doubt, that Gaza is just one part of the broader story of Iran’s growing power and its tightening encirclement of Israel. When understood in this context, the behavior of Israel and its opponents becomes easier to understand.

Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza are one link in the Iranian encirclement. The Houthis in Yemen, who have been harassing commercial ships and firing at Israel’s southern port of Eilat, are another link. The Iranian-backed militias in Iraq make up a third. The Iranian forces and proxies in Syria, including the Revolutionary Guard commanders killed in the recent Israeli airstrike in Damascus, are a fourth. (The strike on April 1, which came after months of attacks against Israel by proxies directed and armed by the Revolutionary Guards, is typically being cast by Israel’s opponents as an unprovoked attack on a diplomatic facility, as if the commanders were cultural attachés in town for a goodwill concert.) Lebanon’s Hezbollah, whose bombardments have depopulated a swath of northern Israel since October 7, is the fifth. If you look at a map, you’ll see that Iran has methodically installed proxies that can strike Israel from almost any direction except the west, where we border the Mediterranean.

The importance of last night’s barrage was that for the first time, the full Iranian alliance gave us a practical demonstration of its scope, orchestration, and intentions. The radical departure here was that the Islamic Republic itself dared to attack directly for the first time. If you’d been watching from space, you probably could have seen the lines of this new Middle East etched in orange and red across the map of the region. You might have also seen the second part of the story, which is the successful defense mounted not just by Israel but by the U.S. and Britain, and also by Jordan and, apparently, by Saudi Arabia—a welcome development hard to imagine a few years ago, and still puzzling to a Western observer fed stories about an “Israeli-Palestinian conflict.”

Whether this attack was a masterstroke or an error by Iran will eventually become clear. But it’s already obvious that they’ve done observers a favor by emerging from the shadows to end any doubt about what this war is and who’s fighting it.
Col. Kemp: The world stands on the brink of all-out war
Israel will have no choice other than to respond to this Iranian attack, as every country would. The IDF has of course been preparing for that as well, perhaps by striking military targets inside Iran and other countries from which any missiles or drones are launched.

As the US sought to prevent Iran from attacking Israel by intensive diplomatic efforts, the Biden administration will likely try to pressure Israel to limit its retaliation, in other words to de-escalate. However, even if limited damage is inflicted in this attack, Israel should strike back hard – perhaps with even greater strength – to deter further attacks.

While hostilities directly with Iran are unlikely to expand beyond air attacks and possibly naval conflict, a major attack by Hezbollah might well lead to an all-out war in Lebanon, which has been on the cards since October.

This latest development in the Middle East shows that this is not just a conflict between Israel and the Palestinians. The war in Gaza was initiated by Hamas and Islamic Jihad, both Iranian proxies, and has been joined since the start, in the form of attacks on Israel, by Tehran’s proxies in Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, Iraq and the West Bank.

The ayatollahs have been declaring their intention to eradicate the Jewish state for many years and have built a proxy “ring of fire” around Israel to achieve that, as well as working on a nuclear weapons programme.

However this conflict develops, Israel’s allies, including the US and UK, must do all that is needed to stand strongly by their main ally in the Middle East, if necessary with military action. Failure to do so will increase the prospects of escalating conflict in the region.
Seth Mandel: Israel-Arab Normalization Proves Its Worth
The 1991 Gulf War, in which President George H.W. Bush organized a coalition to dislodge Saddam Hussein from Iraq, offers a good point of contrast. The Desert Storm coalition notably included Saudi Arabia and Egypt, a diplomatic coup for Bush. In order to try and split off the Arab world from the coalition, Hussein ordered the firing of dozens of Scud missiles at Israel, intending to provoke a response that would force the Arab states to the sidelines. Bush understood that the breadth of the coalition was a historic achievement and that as the Cold War ended, the emergence of a pro-Western bloc in the Gulf would be of immense strategic value.

This meant Israel had to sit on its hands, despite fear that some of the Scuds might be carrying chemical weapons. In return, American Patriot interceptors would protect Israel from the Scuds. Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir agreed.

The problem was that the Patriots were far less effective than expected. Israeli civilians were killed both by direct Scud attacks and by heart attacks and unnecessary injection of anti-nerve-gas medications. The absence of the promised protection made it harder for Israeli leaders to hold their fire. (It didn’t make it any easier that the U.S. was claiming an absurdly high interception rate that wasn’t publicly debunked until well after the war.) This was less a matter of effectiveness—the U.S. needed no help defeating Saddam’s troops, so Israeli intervention was viewed as high-cost and low-reward—than a basic demonstration of self-defense of a nation under fire.

In the end, Israel held its fire but won itself no favor from the Bush administration for doing so, leaving a sour taste in many Israeli mouths.

Fast forward to 2024, and we read this report in the Times of Israel: “Jordanian jets downed dozens of Iranian drones flying across northern and central Jordan heading to Israel, two regional security sources said in a dramatic show of support from Amman, which has heavily criticized Israel’s prosecution of its war against Hamas in Gaza.

“The sources said the drones were brought down in the air on the Jordanian side of the Jordan Valley and were heading in the direction of Jerusalem. Others were intercepted close to the Iraqi-Syrian border. They gave no further details.”

The coalition was mobilized not for offensive moves but for the sole purpose of defending Israeli territory from Iranian missiles. Israeli and American and Jordanian and British jets flew a coordinated defense maneuver, presumably with the tacit support of Saudi Arabia and other Sunni Arab states.

This is the post-Abraham Accords Middle East. And it is the key to understanding the true strategic accomplishment of those peace agreements: all these states are in a very public coalition not only with the United States but with Israel. Recognition and normalization of ties with Israel by Arab states enables the U.S. to organize and broaden its own alliances. The only variable now is whether the Biden administration wants those alliances to thrive or whether it will continue its courtship of Iran, whose overarching goal is the destruction of all of America’s strategic gains over the past 30 years.


Jared Kushner brought peace to the Middle East – unlike the Democrats
Kushner negotiated the landmark Abraham Accords arrangement that saw Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Morocco establish diplomatic relations. The accords were a massive success, boosting Middle Eastern security cooperation, political stability, trade and tourism. They also provided a foundation for a possible Saudi-Israeli normalisation agreement. And while Rhodes plays to populism with his criticism of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, he belies his false claims to foreign policy credibility in doing so.

After all, the vast majority of US diplomats, intelligence and military personnel focused on Middle Eastern politics believe that the Trump administration was right to prioritise Saudi relations beyond the scope of Khashoggi’s obviously terrible murder. Bin Salman was responsible for that murder, yes, but the Trump administration rightly recognised that more US interests are at stake with Riyadh than the fate of one man.

It’s not just about trade, energy security and balance of power politics. Saudi Arabia has been a keystone US counter-terrorism partner since 2003, providing invaluable intelligence assistance in the fight against both al Qaeda and ISIS. Saudi intelligence officers and agents have died to save Western lives. And though his autocratic tendencies and repression of certain officials is lamentable, bin Salman’s domestic reform program is critically important.

The crown prince is diversifying his economy away from oil, seeking greater cultural connectivity with the West and strengthening women’s rights. These are the facts. But if bin Salman fails, Saudi Arabia will be left with a very young population that lacks opportunity and hope. This will be a goldmine for Salafi-Jihadist recruiters. Indeed, it will pose the threat of a supercharged ISIS 2.0, and– if the Iranians develop a nuclear weapon – an ISIS 2.0 kitted out with weapons of mass destruction. Is that an acceptable cost for Rhodes’ creative scorn?

President Obama willfully ignored Iranian human rights protesters as they were brutally subjugated. He endorsed the Arab spring then backed down when things started getting complicated. He compared ISIS to a junior high school team, only acting against the terrorist caliphate when it had seized a vast area of Iraq and Syria. And he ignored the Sunni Arab monarchies in both form (deeply offending Arab sensibilities) and action (negotiating the Iran nuclear agreement without any serious collaboration with these close US allies). Rhodes didn’t simply play an intimate role in all these failures, he often revels in his record as the supreme conductor for them.

So, yes, Kushner deserves close scrutiny and significant skepticism over his business dealings. But Rhodes deserves no quarter in his foreign policy analysis.
Israel confirms Hamas rejection of hostage deal
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed early on Sunday morning that Hamas has rejected the latest U.S.-mediated hostages-for-ceasefire proposal.

“It has been over a week since the Cairo meeting—Hamas has rejected the outline that was tabled by the mediators,” said Netanyahu’s office.

“The rejection of the proposal by the three mediators [United States, Egypt and Qatar], which included the most significant flexibility on Israel’s part, proves that [Hamas chief in Gaza Yahya] Sinwar does not want a humanitarian deal and the return of the hostages, is continuing to exploit the tension with Iran and is striving to unite the sectors and achieve a general escalation in the region,” the statement continued.

“Israel will continue to strive to realize the objectives of the war with Hamas with full force, and leave no stone unturned to return the 133 hostages from Gaza forthwith,” it concluded.

According to reports, the latest proposal would have seen Jerusalem release 900 terrorist prisoners, including murderers, in exchange for 40 hostages, along with a partial IDF withdrawal from the Gaza Strip and the unrestricted return of Palestinians to the northern part of the coastal enclave.

The plan proposed that Hamas would release more hostages at a later stage following the withdrawal of all Israeli troops from Gaza.
Israel mulls response to Iranian attack amid fears of regional war
Israel’s airspace reopened on Sunday morning following an unprecedented direct attack by Iran during the overnight hours that saw over 300 drones and missiles fired at the Jewish state.

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant held an operational situation assessment on Sunday morning with other senior security officials. He praised the coordinated defensive response to the attack, which stopped the vast majority of the missiles and drones, but warned the public to remain vigilant as the campaign continues.

“Overnight, the whole world saw the true face of Iran—a terrorist state that attacked the State of Israel from a distance of 1,500 kilometers [932 miles] and in doing so also attempted to employ all of its proxies,” said Gallant. “On the other hand, the world also saw the power of a coalition, and how Israel, together with the United States and additional partners, stood together and thwarted this attack in a way that is unparalleled,” he added.

The State of Israel was attacked with “hundreds” of missiles and drones, which the Israel Defense Forces stopped “in an impressive manner,” he said.

“Together with the United States and additional partners, we managed to defend the territory of the State of Israel. Very little damage was caused—this is the result of the IDF’s impressive operations,” said Gallant.

“The campaign is not over yet—we must remain alert and attentive to the instructions published by the IDF and Homefront Command. We must be prepared for every scenario. Having said this, we have thwarted the most significant wave [of the attack], and we did so successfully,” he continued.

Israel Defense Forces Spokesperson Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said on Sunday that Israel is “preparing plans for the continuation, discussing alternatives and will do everything necessary to protect the citizens of the State of Israel. The IDF is fully qualified tonight and today and for the continuation of the missions ahead.”

Hagari said that Israel intercepted 99% of the threats, calling it a “significant strategic achievement” and noting that none of the 170 drones that Iran launched penetrated Israeli territory. They were shot down by fighter jets, the air defense array and defense systems of allied countries.

Additionally, Hagari noted that some missiles penetrated the Nevatim Airbase in the Negev desert, causing minor damage. The base continues to function.
Israeli Bedouin girl wounded by Iranian missile fights for life
A 7-year-old Israeli Bedouin girl injured overnight during Iran’s missile and drone assault on Israel underwent surgery Sunday for a serious head wound and remains in critical condition, according to Israel’s Soroka Medical Center.

The girl, Amina Alhasoni, from a Bedouin town near the southern Israeli city of Arad, was wounded by shrapnel from an intercepted ballistic missile that fell on her family’s home at around 2 a.m.

The home is not equipped with a shelter, and the girl was sleeping in her bedroom when the shrapnel hit. Her father, Mohammed, said that the family had heard air-raid sirens shortly before the missile fragment hit.
UNSC to meet late on Sunday to discuss Iran’s missile and drone attack on Israel
The United Nations Security Council was set to meet late Sunday afternoon in New York on Iran’s overnight missile and drone attack on Israel.

“The gravity and the volume of the attacks are unprecedented and are a flagrant violation of Israel’s sovereignty, of international law, and of Security Council resolutions,” Israel’s Ambassador to the UN Gilad Erdan said in a letter he wrote to the UNSC president asking the 15-member body to convene on the matter.

“The time has come for the Security Council to take action against the Iranian threat,” he said.Iran’s mission to the UN in New York stated in a post on X early Sunday morning that its attack was an act of self-defense permissible under Article 51 of the UN Charter.

“Iran’s military action was in response to the Zionist regime’s aggression against our diplomatic premises in Damascus,” it wrote, as it referred to the April 1 strike that killed seven of its military officials.

Iran defends its actions against Israel
“The matter can be deemed concluded. However, should the Israeli regime make another mistake, Iran’s response will be considerably more severe,” Iran stated.

It added that it took action against Israel after the UNSC failed to condemn the Damascus attack, stating that when it came to the Islamic Republic there was a “reversal of roles, equating the victim with the criminal.”

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres wrote in a post on X, “I strongly condemn the serious escalation represented by the large-scale attack launched on Israel... I call for an immediate cessation of these hostilities.”

“I am deeply alarmed about the very real danger of a devastating region-wide escalation,” he said, as he urged “maximum restraint to avoid any action that could lead to major military confrontations on multiple fronts in the Middle East.

“I have repeatedly stressed that neither the region nor the world can afford another war,” he stated.
US, UK, France and Jordan help Israel stop Iranian drones, missiles
The United States, United Kingdom and Jordan downed many of the over 300 projectiles launched at Israel by Iran overnight Sunday, while France also played a role in defending the Jewish state against the unprecedented attack.

According to Israeli estimates, Tehran and its terror proxies fired some 170 drones, 30 cruise missiles and 120 ballistic missiles at various targets in Israel.

Israel Defense Forces Spokesperson Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said on Sunday that Israel and its allies intercepted 99% of the threats, calling it a “significant strategic achievement” and noting that none of the 170 drones that Iran launched penetrated Israeli airspace.

American military forces intercepted over 100 airborne threats, while Amman, a frequent and harsh critic of Israel’s six-month war in Gaza against Hamas, stopped dozens of drones hurtling through its airspace east of Israel.

An official statement from Amman on Sunday morning confirmed the interceptions, adding that some shrapnel had fallen in various places in the country, causing no injuries or damage.

The Pentagon said that it intercepted “dozens of missiles” and drones launched from Iran, Iraq, Syria and Yemen. U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin told his Israeli counterpart Yoav Gallant during a telephone conversation early on Sunday that “Israel could count on full U.S. support to defend Israel against any future attacks by Iran and its regional proxies.”

U.K. Royal Air Force fighter jets and refueling aircraft also assisted in the defense operation, taking off from bases in Cyprus and reportedly shooting down drones near the Syria-Iraq border.

France also participated in Israel’s air defense, Hagari confirmed on Sunday morning.
G7 ‘unequivocally’ condemns Iran in ‘strongest terms’
The G7 leaders—of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States, as well as the European Union—condemned the Iranian regime’s “unprecedented” attack on Israel “unequivocally” and “in the strongest terms” on Sunday.

“Iran fired hundreds of drones and missiles towards Israel,” the G7 stated. “Israel, with the help of its partners, defeated the attack. We express our full solidarity and support to Israel and its people, and reaffirm our commitment towards its security.”

The Iranian regime “further stepped toward the destabilization of the region and risks provoking an uncontrollable regional escalation. This must be avoided,” per the G7. “We will continue to work to stabilize the situation and avoid further escalation.”

“In this spirit, we demand that Iran and its proxies cease their attacks, and we stand ready to take further measures now and in response to further destabilizing initiatives,” the leaders stated.

“We will also strengthen our cooperation to end the crisis in Gaza, including by continuing to work towards an immediate and sustainable ceasefire and the release of hostages by Hamas, and deliver increased humanitarian assistance to Palestinians in need,” they added.
Biden said to tell Netanyahu US won’t back Israeli response to Iran attack
U.S. President Joe Biden told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during a phone call on Saturday that Washington will not support an Israeli retaliatory attack for Iran’s drone and missile assault on the Jewish state, Axios reported, citing a senior White House official.

Iran fired more than 300 missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles from its territory toward Israel on Saturday night, in what Tehran says was retaliation for the April 1 killing of several IRGC officers in Syria by Israel.

The United States and other countries helped Israel shoot down the projectiles, which amounted to a 99% success rate, according to the IDF. American military forces intercepted over 100 airborne threats.

“You got a win. Take the win,” Biden told Netanyahu, according to the official, amid fears of a regional war should Jerusalem respond.

Netanyahu reportedly said he understood when Biden told him that the United States will not participate in offensive military operations against Tehran.

In a White House statement, Biden condemned the Iranian assault, which marked the first direct attack on Israel from Iranian territory.

“At my direction, to support the defense of Israel, the U.S. military moved aircraft and ballistic missile defense destroyers to the region over the course of the past week. Thanks to these deployments and the extraordinary skill of our servicemembers, we helped Israel take down nearly all of the incoming drones and missiles,” said Biden.

“I’ve just spoken with Prime Minister Netanyahu to reaffirm America’s ironclad commitment to the security of Israel. I told him that Israel demonstrated a remarkable capacity to defend against and defeat even unprecedented attacks—sending a clear message to its foes that they cannot effectively threaten the security of Israel.

“Tomorrow, I will convene my fellow G7 leaders to coordinate a united diplomatic response to Iran’s brazen attack. My team will engage with their counterparts across the region. And we will stay in close touch with Israel’s leaders. And while we have not seen attacks on our forces or facilities today, we will remain vigilant to all threats and will not hesitate to take all necessary action to protect our people.”

Iran is threatening a larger attack if Israel responds militarily, while also warning the United States against further involvement.

“We used an attack with ballistic and cruise missiles. The operation was designed to attack the air base from which the Israeli planes that attacked the consulate [in Damascus] were launched. There were direct hits in the attack. We only targeted military bases,” said Mohammad Bakri, chief of staff of the Iranian Army.

“We sent a message to the U.S. that if it cooperates with Israel in the next steps, its bases will not be safe,” he added.
Iran threatens larger attack if Israel retaliates
Iran is threatening a wider attack should Israel respond militarily to its massive drone and missile assault, while also warning the United States against further involvement.

The Islamic Republic fired more than 300 missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles from its territory toward Israel overnight Saturday, in what Tehran says was retaliation for the April 1 killing of several Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps officers in Syria by Israel.

“If the Zionist regime (Israel) or its supporters demonstrate reckless behavior, they will receive a decisive and much stronger response,” Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi said in a statement on Sunday.

“We used an attack with ballistic and cruise missiles. The operation was designed to attack the air base from which the Israeli planes that attacked the consulate [in Damascus] were launched. There were direct hits in the attack. We only targeted military bases,” said Mohammad Bakri, chief of staff of the Iranian Army.

“We sent a message to the U.S. that if it cooperates with Israel in the next steps, its bases will not be safe,” he added.

“Should the Israeli regime make another mistake, Iran’s response will be considerably more severe. It is a conflict between Iran and the rogue Israeli regime, from which the U.S. MUST STAY AWAY!” Iran warned.

Meanwhile, the attack was celebrated in Tehran, with festive crowds gathering in Palestine Square waving Palestinian flags and dancing. The celebratory mood extended to the parliament, where Speaker of the Parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf threatened: “The blow the Zionist entity suffered was strong and will make it regret. If it escalates in any way, our response will be more severe.”

Parliamentarians stood up with clenched fists and chanted “death to Israel!”


Iran Failed and Israel Succeeded
The unprecedented Iranian attack against Israel has failed, due to the IDF's defensive plan which relied on precise military intelligence and the exceptional capabilities of the Air Force pilots and their active protection systems. Israel needs to deter Iran. The ayatollahs deliberately attacked Israel, aiming to cause significant damage. If Israel fails to respond to this attack aggressively, the ayatollahs and their allies - as well as regional countries willing to normalize their relations with Israel - may see it as weakness.

At the same time, Israel must consider the aggressive demand by the U.S., the UK, France, and Germany that Israel refrain from a response that could lead to a regional war. Israel has an interest in responding to the Western demand and returning to focus on the wars in Gaza and the northern border, leaving the schooling of Iran for another opportunity.

In any case, response and revenge are dishes best served cold. It's better to plan them well to ensure their effectiveness, even if it takes time and is done covertly. When considering a response, priority should be given to maintaining Israel's legitimacy in the eyes of the West. Deterrence is a passing thing by its nature, whereas the alliance with the West and the regional defense architecture are strategic assets to Israel.

As a result of early detection, Israel's air defense system was able to focus its efforts and intercept the ballistic missiles, drones and cruise missiles launches by Iran before they reached its territory. Out of 100 ballistic missiles fired, only a handful crossed into Israeli airspace. Most of the ballistic missiles were intercepted by the Arrow and David's Sling air-defense systems. Similarly, not a single drone or cruise missile out of the 200 fired reached the country. The U.S. and its allies intercepted around 70 missiles, with the rest downed by Israeli Air Force fighter jets.

Iran, naturally, is trying to turn its failure into a victory in the eyes of its domestic audience using fake news, but the Iranian public will know what really happened within days, and this will mark another blow to the regime's credibility and its ability to threaten its surroundings. This is another Israeli achievement in repelling this attack.
What Has Iran's Attack on Israel Achieved?
The result of the Iranian attack on Israel was underwhelming, to say the least. The attacks only managed to harm one Israeli, a 7-year-old Muslim Bedouin girl. "It's kind of pathetic," said Danielle Pletka, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. "This is not the outcome they were hoping for." Tehran refocused Arab attention on the importance of stopping Iran's nuclear program, Pletka maintained. "They're looking at the attack and saying, 'That was bad. What would have happened if they had nuclear weapons?'"

"Iran officially inaugurated the regional defense coalition that has been in the works for the last decade," observed Israeli military theorist Brig.-Gen. (res.) Eran Ortal. "Iran gave Israel its first strategic achievement in this war."

Moreover, the focus has shifted from Gazan civilians, as Iran succeeded in rallying the U.S. and top European powers to Israel's side. Instead of the UN Security Council discussing the need for a ceasefire in Gaza, it will be debating the Iranian threat and Israel's right to self-defense on Sunday. And in Washington, the Iranian attack pushed the Republicans to accelerate an aid bill for Israel that had been stalled in the House.
Why Iran May Have Just Overplayed Its Hand by Attacking Israel
Let's game this out, taking some of the most hysterical suggestions at face value. For example, what are the chances this turns into a "regional war" being fought by multiple state powers against Israel? The answer to that is almost zero. Most of the Arab nations hate the Iranian regime and want to see it falter. Sure enough, instead of offering support to Iran, the Saudis and Jordanians immediately pledged to shoot down any Iranian projectiles and aircraft that violated their airspace.

There is no reason to believe any other nation in the Middle East will join Iran in a hot war against Israel. The Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria, one of Iran's only true allies in the region, has no capacity to do anything but hold what territory it still has following its civil war. The rest of the Arab nations are mostly aligned against Iran, even if not explicitly. Yes, they make a lot of noise in Arabic about the Palestinian issue, but that's for domestic consumption. When push comes to shove, they aren't putting their necks on the line for Iran.

So what happens if Israel and Iran engage in a more protracted war? From the jump, we know Israel isn't going to invade Iran nor does Iran have any ability to invade Israel. That means an air war is the only real possibility, and one that Israel would easily win. Iran's air force is multiple generations behind. We are talking about less than 200 very outdated fighters, with ancient F-14s and Mig-29s being the pinnacle of their technology. American-made F-35s and even older F-15s would have a field day. Does Iran want to engage in such a fight? I tend to doubt it given they know they'd lose everything they have. I bet they want their attack to be the end of this, but Israel may not give them a choice.

That's where Iran has likely overplayed its hand. The Islamic nation could now see many of its most important strategic sites hit, including its nuclear facilities. In return, they can only fling low-tech drones and missiles over at Israel, most of which will never make it through. The status quo of its proxy militias launching largely ineffective attacks will also continue.

Overall, though, Iran could be left significantly weakened after this, with other nations in the region looking to capitalize. This isn't World War III. It's not even a regional conflict at this point, and the combined air power of Israel, the United States, and the United Kingdom represents a huge technological advantage over anything Iran can put into the sky. The Islamic Republic has officially pushed too far to try to save face, and they'll now pay the price.
Mark Dubowitz: Iran’s terror-enabling supreme leader only opens the door for Israel to hit back hard
Khamenei took no heed of the Friday warning from President Biden, who told the Iranians “Don’t!” when asked what his response would be to an Iranian attack. The president had dispatched US Central Command Gen. Michael Kurilla to Israel to meet with his IDF counterparts and sent a US warship up the Red Sea. None of this seemed sufficient to deter an Iranian attack though it may have mitigated its severity.

Now the Biden administration must do more by providing Israel with ballistic-missile-defense support as the two forces have practiced for decades. Washington also should provide all the military supplies the IDF needs to respond to this aggression and unwavering political support to see Israel through this critical time.

Biden’s wavering support for Israel in its war against Hamas, and the threat from dozens of Democratic members of Congress to cut off military support, surely emboldened Khamenei.

Israel is a formidable military power with extensive military assets. It has a multilayered air-defense system that can shoot down drones and cruise and ballistic missiles. But the IDF cannot only play defense. It will be under pressure to respond directly to Iranian aggression with its powerful air, naval and cyber capabilities. If not, this could normalize Iranian direct attacks against Israel. This may also be an opportunity to attack assets connected to Iran’s rapidly expanding nuclear-weapons program.

The Islamic Republic has been at war with Israel for decades. But Iran’s supreme leader now has crossed an Israeli red line that he may come to regret.
Stephen Pollard: The Israel attack shows the catastrophic consequences of appeasement. The only way to secure peace is strength
Trump rightly tore up Obama's deal, facing down hysterical objections from co-signatories Britain, France and Germany. But The Donald's approach worked.

Trump's sanctions shrunk Iran's economy by 4.8 per cent in 2018 and 9.5 per cent in 2019 – diminishing the wider threat to the Middle East.

But after Biden was inaugurated in 2021, he resumed talks on a renewed deal. And although the sanctions have not been formally lifted, their enforcement has been weakened, sending an implicit message to Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, that the US was no longer serious about imposing them.

Iran has since vastly expanded its oil exports, largely to China – just as it has escalated its malign behaviour in Gaza, Lebanon and now from its own soil.

We need to learn some lessons here. When Neville Chamberlain signed the Munich agreement in 1938, Hitler felt empowered to invade Poland.

When Vladimir Putin annexed Crimea in 2014, the West stood back and watched – galvanising him to launch an all-out invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

And now Israel has been attacked on its own soil once again after Biden undid Trump's good work in standing up to the mad mullahs.

The world is growing too dangerous for us to keep repeating this mistake.
Stephen Pollard: Where's the march? We are waiting...
I’m waiting. Aren’t we all? Waiting, that is, for the march. You know – the march in solidarity with a nation that has come under sustained drone and missile attack.

So where are they? Out on the streets, expressing their support for ordinary Israelis who could have been murdered on Saturday in their masses – for a second time in just over six months – if it hadn’t been for the brilliance of the IDF and the support of Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the US and the UK?

Oops, sorry. I forgot the First Rule of Hate Marches. The marches aren’t about solidarity with victims. They’re about support for the perpetrators. After all, it took just seven days for the first hate march, before Israel had begun any military action. Out they came in support of Hamas. Not that they put it like that, of course. No, it was about a “Free Palestine”. It’s just that the march against Israel happened to coincide with Hamas’ butchery of 1,200 people the week before. Pure coincidence, obviously.

So, this time it’ll be a march in support of Iran, the plucky Islamic Republic quietly going about its business of wiping Israel off the map until interrupted by the forces of the Zionist regime.

It’s been fascinating watching the likes of Mary Dejevsky, always reliably on the wrong side, telling us on social media that it’s “Not quite right for @BBCNews et al to describe #Iran actions as 'escalation'. 'Escalation' was when #Israel attacked #Iran diplomatic territory in #Damascus. Iran had no choice but to respond.”

Ah yes, because obviously Iran is the good guy. Pushed to the edge by those nasty Zios, of course. As LSE professor Fawaz Gerges told CNN and Sky this morning, poor Iran has been so restrained for so many years in the face of Israel's provocation. It was finally pushed over the edge and just had to send 300 drones and missiles. It had to! "Fawaz, it's good to have you," said the CNN host, Becky Anderson, after he shared his insights.

It’s the same dynamic as with the Hamasniks on the streets. My enemy’s enemy is my friend. Though it can be confusing deciding just who the enemy is. For some, it’s the free world generally - as it is for the Stop the War crowd, for whom North Korea, Russia et al are so obviously on the side of the angels, pushed around by the unspeakable West.
Daniel Greenfield: This Was Not Iran’s Actual Attack
This is not the actual Iranian attack.

This is the ‘attack’ prearranged for show between Iran and the Biden administration through backchannels.

It’s an attack that allows Iran to show off that it can reach Israel (look at those lights over the Temple Mount) without inflicting any real damage.

The Biden administration has already made it clear that it will oppose any Israeli response. There will be public condemnations and warnings about escalating the conflict further.

So does that mean it’s over? No.

Iran did burn up some resources doing this, but apart from the morale boost of doing it, it set out to test US and Israeli defenses. And the defenses did what they were supposed to.

However had Iran actually been trying to launch a serious attack, it would have used its Hezbollah, Houthi, Iraqi, and whatever is left of its Hamas proxies to saturate local air defenses.

The Oct 7 attacks, planned by an Iranian IRGC general who was killed in the Israeli strikes on a terror target in Damascus, carefully analyzed Israel’s border and air defenses, its infrastructure, command and control in search of weaknesses to exploit. And did so effectively. That is what a serious attack would have done. And this was not it.

So what will Iran do next?

Iran is not currently ready for a regional war and it prefers to use its proxies to do its dirty work for it until that day comes. Oct 7 was an example of that, so were the Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea and the Iraqi Shiite attacks on a U.S. base in Jordan that killed three servicemembers.

But Iran will do things beyond this light show which was largely meant to reassure the Biden administration that its “diplomatic tools” have successfully solved the problem. That’s an illusion that Iran has used to allow it to build up its nuclear weapons program, to sow dragon’s teeth around the region and to cut off international shipping at will.


Daniel Greenfield: After Calling for Arms Embargo, Pelosi Claims She Stands With Israel
How much contempt for their voters do politicians like this have? Almost limitless.

Rep. Nancy Pelosi, along with Rep. Jamie Raskin and others, just signed a letter calling for an arms embargo on Israel alongside Rep. Ilhan Omar, Rep. Rashida Tlaib and other ‘Squad’ members.

After the Iranian attacks, Pelosi and Raskin tweeted about their “unwavering” and “ironclad” solidarity with the Jewish State.

“America’s support for Israel’s security is resolute as we condemn Iran’s horrible attacks,” Pelosi’s account tweeted. “Our commitment to the Israeli people and support of their defense remains unwavering – and we must pass the Senate’s national security supplemental.”

“This direct attack on our ally Israel by Iran, an authoritarian terror state, is unacceptable. Israel, aided by America and others, thwarted the attack. We stand in ironclad solidarity with the people of Israel against efforts by fanatics to ignite catastrophic regional war,” Raskin’s account tweeted.

There’s apparently some interpretation of ironclad and unwavering solidarity that covers an arms embargo.

But Rep. Raskin and Rep. Pelosi just had their staffers assemble a generic statement to reassure Jewish voters. Do they believe in the arms embargo letter that they signed on in the tweets of support after the attack? Either one?


The staggering cost of Israel's defense against Iran's missile attack: '4-5 billion shekels per night'
Iran's massive missile attack overnight between Saturday and Sunday on Israel was stopped by Israel's sophisticated defense systems. It obviously cost a lot of money, and the question, among others that arise the next morning, is how much? Brig. Gen. Reem Aminoach, former financial advisor to the IDF chief of staff, tried to estimate. "The defense tonight was on the order of 4-5 billion shekels," he said in a conversation with Ynet studio. "If we're talking about ballistic missiles that need to be brought down with an Arrow system, cruise missiles that need to be brought down with other missiles, and UAVs, which we actually bring down mainly with airplanes - then add up the costs - $3.5 million for an Arrow missile, $1 million for a David's Sling, such and such costs for airplanes. An order of magnitude of 4-5 billion shekels," he said.

"What is significant is above all the insight that says: 'Let's figure out how much it cost the Iranians.' And you want to be prepared for the number of attacks. So, you have to try to understand what amount of defense we need. Let's say that if the IDF's net budget in 2023 was 60 billion shekels, with less than double that you have no chance of reaching a situation where you are able to maintain the required amounts."

Aminoach also spoke about Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich's decision to postpone ordering new fighter jets from the U.S.

"Currently the Treasury, for its own reasons, is holding up ordering planes from the U.S., using American money in the form of aid dollars and we are talking about planes that are not supposed to be added more to the numbers to existing planes, but only to replace existing planes. Those who try to understand a little bit what the planes did today, are not able to understand how they could be ready to retire. It seems that the planes went out to protect, in fact, the opposite of what the interceptors are doing of an Iron Dome that stops the missiles in Israeli territory."


Iran Attacks Israel with Drones and Missiles | FDD SITREP with Jon Schanzer and Jonathan Conricus
The Islamic Republic of Iran has launched a barrage of drones from its soil, in-bound for targets in Israel. After more than 6 months of attacks on Israel by Iranian-backed proxies following the Hamas massacre of October 7, this escalation comes in response to the recent killing of top IRGC commanders by Israel in Damascus. Numerous drones have been intercepted by U.S. and Israeli air defense systems, with explosions heard in the skies of Jerusalem. Is this the beginning of a multiday attack by Tehran? FDD Senior Vice President Jonathan Schanzer and FDD Senior Fellow and former IDF International Spokesperson Lt. Col. (Ret.) Jonathan Conricus deliver a timely situational report on what we know and what we can expect.




Call Me Back PodCast: Special Episode: Did Iran Miscalculate? – with Nadav Eyal
Hosted by Dan Senor
To help us understand what happened overnight in Israel, ourguest today is NADAV EYAL, who returns to the podcast. He is a columnist for Yediot. Eyal has been covering Middle-Eastern and international politics for the last two decades for Israeli radio, print and television news.




Caroline Glick, Fmr. Sr. Foreign Policy Advisor to Netanyahu on Newsmax TV - Iran's attack on Israel
Caroline Glick, former Senior Foreign Policy Advisor to Netanyahu, former IDF Captain, current Senior Contributing Editor at JNS, host of the Caroline Glick Show, and Newsweek columnist, author and speaker, joins Newsmax TV with updates on Iran's attack on Israel. April 13, 2024




Iran launches extensive attack to ‘overwhelm Israel’s missile defence’
Former British Commander Richard Kemp says Iran’s attack on Israel is “very significant”.

Iran has launched more than a hundred drones, dozens of cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles at Israel.

The IDF has confirmed the attack is targeted at specific places in the country.

Israeli officials have declared they are ready and well prepared for the attack.

Mr Kemp told Sky News Australia that Iran planned to “overwhelm Israel’s missile defence”.


Danny Danon: Israel has to 'send clear message' to Iran | Israel-Hamas war
Israeli politician Danny Danon has told Sky News Israel needs to "act fast" and retaliate against Iran following its drone and missile barrage against Israel.

Mr Danon, a former ambassador to the UN, said Israel needed to "target Iran" to "send a clear message" that it was unacceptable to attack Israel in the way it did.

Israel said Iran had launched 300 drones and missiles in the attack - Iran said it was retaliating to an Israeli strike on its consulate in Damascus.




Tablet: Special Edition: Iran Attacks Israel
On Saturday evening, Iran targeted Israel with hundreds of suicide drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles. The vast majority of these projectiles, according to IDF Spokesman Daniel Hagari, were intercepted outside of Israel’s borders by Israeli jets and missile defense systems. “A few impacts” were identified inside Israel, including at a military base in the south, causing “slight damage to infrastructure.” One injury has been reported so far—a young Bedouin girl who was hurt in the Negev. The most recent update from Israel’s Home Front Command, sent just before 4 a.m. in Israel, said that Israelis no longer need to remain near bomb shelters, which suggests that the current wave of attacks may be over.

We are now waiting to see how Israel responds. Although an unnamed “senior Israeli official” has been quoted promising a “significant response” to the attacks, Iran appears to have pre-cleared the attacks with the United States via the Oman diplomatic backchannel. And according to Roi Kais of Israel’s Kan News, a U.S. official told Saudi Arabia’s Al-Arabiya on Friday, “the United States will take part in the response to the Iranian response if Tehran escalates the situation inappropriately”—which means that the United States tacitly approved an appropriate level of Iranian escalation, such as, we don’t know, a “symbolic” drone-and-missile attack.

The United States has also, as Barack Ravid reported Friday, demanded to “have a say before decisions are made about any retaliation by Israel.” Pair that with the series of comments on Saturday from top U.S. officials reiterating their ironclad commitment to Israel’s defense against Iran, and you get a sense of what’s really going on here. The United States will help “defend” Israel against Iran, but it will also attempt to constrain Israel from “escalating” by retaliating too aggressively against a “harmless,” “appropriate” Iranian attack.

Indeed, immediately after the attack, Iran’s permanent mission to the UN addressed the United States directly:


Translation: We did our part, now you do yours, and curb your Israeli dog.

Tablet News Editor Tony Badran explains how it works:
The United States has now set itself in between Israel and Iran. On paper, it is “equidistant” between the two parties, and its rhetoric will even emphasize its ironclad commitment to the defense of Israel (i.e., we manage Israeli “defense,” because they are an imperial province). But it also demands info on what the Israelis plan to hit, and tells them whether or not they can hit it. So, in fact, the United States isn’t equidistant at all. It’s Tehran’s bagman/lawyer/errand boy. That’s what gets telegraphed to everyone in the region, too.


American Anti-War Activists Cheer for Iran’s War
About 300 anti-war activists crowded into the basement of the Teamsters Union’s headquarters on Saturday to hear organizers from all over the country describe their plans to disrupt the Democratic National Convention this August. Joe Biden’s backing of Israel since Hamas’s October 7 attack has turned these left-wing radicals against their own party.

It’s really inspiring to see that people are just as enthusiastic, and maybe even more enthusiastic, to march on the DNC as they are to march on the RNC,” says Omar Florez, a Milwaukee-based activist. “We can thank Genocide Joe and our movement for that.”

But then a man stumbles to the podium, wiping sweat from his forehead. He grabs the microphone to announce that the Islamic regime of Iran has launched missiles and drones heading straight toward Israel.

“They believe that they will be in Palestinian—I don’t call it Israeli—airspace between two and four a.m., which means about two to four hours from now,” he says. “In addition, there are reports of drones having been fired on Israel from Yemen and Iraq.”

The crowd, all wearing black N95s, erupts into applause. Someone in the back lowers their mask to send a celebratory whistle soaring throughout the room.

The man at the podium, Hatem Abudayyeh, heads the U.S. Palestinian Community Network, “a purported community group which, on information and belief, is an affiliate of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, a designated terror organization based in Gaza,” according to a lawsuit over the alleged relations between U.S. advocacy groups and Hamas.

“This is when this country and the world needs us because the United States is going to, quote unquote, defend the criminal Israeli state,” says Abudayyeh, whose home was raided by the FBI in 2010 as part of an investigation “concerning the material support of terrorism.”

“We have to assume that the United States is going to try to retaliate against Iran.”


Seth Frantzman: Deaths of WCK humanitarians highlight role of security coordinators
On April 1, Israel Defense Forces airstrikes on three vehicles in a humanitarian convoy of the World Central Kitchen in Gaza led to the deaths of seven humanitarian aid workers.

In the wake of the tragedy, its CEO Erin Gore said that “these are the heroes of WCK. These seven beautiful souls were killed by the IDF in a strike as they were returning from a full day’s mission. Their smiles, laughter, and voices are forever embedded in our memories.”

Three of those killed in the airstrike were members of the WCK security team, who were military veterans. This sheds light on the important work that security coordinators have in working with NGOs and also other organizations.

According to reports in UK media, the three members of the security team included John Chapman (57), James Henderson (33) and James Kirby (47). All of them were from the UK.

In a statement by James Kirby’s family at the BBC, they said “James understood the dangers of venturing into Gaza, drawing from his experiences in the British Armed Forces, where he bravely served tours in Bosnia and Afghanistan. Despite the risks, his compassionate nature drove him to offer assistance.”

Kirby was born in Bristol and had served in the army, including in Afghanistan in 2011. Chapman was born in Aylesbury and was a former Special Forces soldier in the Special Boat Service. Later he worked in private security work in the Gulf, according to a remembrance at the Daily Mail. Henderson was from Cornwall and had served in the Royal Marines for six years before moving to security work in 2016. Kirby’s LinkedIn profile said he was an SIA-licensed close protection officer with experience in “executive protection, hostile and covert surveillance, security management and maritime security.”

The three men all worked for a security company called Solace Global, according to a Channel 4 report in the UK. Solace Global’s non-executive director Matthew Harding told the channel that “the impact on operations is that we will clearly and have clearly taken a very close look at all of our planning, risk control measures and our activities up to, during and after the event. I think the majority of people working in this industry are either ex-military or ex-law enforcement and have a lifetime of experience of operating in this kind of environment before they embark on this type of career.”
IAF strikes deep in Lebanon after Hezbollah fires over 100 rockets
Israeli jets on Sunday afternoon struck a Hezbollah weapons production site in the Baalbek region of northern Lebanon, some 60 miles from the border, in response to missile launches toward northern Israel.

“A short time ago, Air Force fighter jets attacked a significant Hezbollah weapons production site in the Al-Nabi Shayth area, deep in Lebanon,” the Israel Defense Forces announced in a post on X.

Air raid sirens blared near the Israeli border with Lebanon early on Sunday. Alerts were activated in Kibbutz Snir, located at the seam between the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and the Eastern Galilee.

Hezbollah launched more than 100 rockets into the Upper Galilee, Israel’s Ynet reported. Air defenses intercepted most of the projectiles and there were no casualties, the outlet added.

The Iran-backed terror group attacked as Tehran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched more than 300 missiles and drones at Israel from Iran, most of which were intercepted outside Israeli territory.


50 Batman creators sign petition urging Qatar, Egypt to facilitate Bibas release
Fifty creators of the iconic Batman superhero character signed a petition urging the governments of Egypt and Qatar to press for the release of Yarden and Shiri Bibas along with their two red-haired sons, Ariel and Kfir. All four family members have been held hostage in Gaza since October 7.

The family was kidnapped from Nir Oz by Hamas terrorists on October 7, a day that saw 3,000 terrorists infiltrate southern Israel to massacre 1,200 Israelis — most of them civilians — and kidnap 253 people into the Strip. Mother Shiri and her sons were captured separately from her husband Yarden.

One of the iconic images of the family that has been circulated since their capture shows the four wearing Batman apparel. Ariel, 4, is a dedicated fan of the Gotham City protector.

The petition was sent to Egyptian and Qatari ambassadors in Washington, DC, on April 12. The effort was organized by Dr. Rafael Medoff, historian and director of the David S. Wyman Institute for Holocaust Studies.

“These comics creators have spent decades developing a hero who fights for the innocent and stands as a beacon of hope for his community, and we’re trying to channel that spirit through this effort,” Medoff told The Times of Israel.

Batman was introduced as a character in the 27th edition of Detective Comics (DC), printed in 1939. DC has produced numerous Batman franchises since then, and the character is familiar around the world from Hollywood films, video games, merchandising and television.


Anti-Israel protest organisers not obtaining a permit slammed
Former New South Wales Police minister David Elliott says the anti-Israel protests planned for tomorrow refusing to give police details or obtain permits is “an offence”.

“That’s an offense, if you are protesting and you do not have a police permit, well that is an offence,” he said.

“Nobody denies … the police certainly are the last ones to deny anybody the right to express their political opinion in Australia.

“If they are doing it without the appropriate authority.

“Well, that is an offense.”




Furious uni student unleashes on 'dangerous' internet sleuths after he was wrongly identified as knifeman who killed six people in Bondi
A Sydney university student claims he was sent 'thousands' of messages after he was wrongly identified as the knifeman behind a horrific attack that saw six innocent shoppers killed.

Ben Cohen, a 20-year-old first-year computing science student at the University of Technology, was accused of stabbing shoppers at Bondi Junction Westfield on Saturday afternoon.

New South Wales Police Minister Yasmin Catley has since identified 40-year-old Queensland man Joel Cauchi as the man who attacked shoppers with a knife.

The name 'Benjamin Cohen' began trending on X - formerly known as Twitter - just hours after the stabbings with more than 50,000 posts mentioning his name.

Mr Cohen slammed internet sleuths' accusations as 'very dangerous' noting they could 'destroy people's lives'.

'People don’t really think too hard about what they’re posting and how it might affect someone,' he told News.com.au.

Mr Cohen's father, Mark, said the family, who live together in Sydney's eastern suburbs, were 'freaked out' by the shocking allegations.

'I think they've just gone for the first face that kind of looks the same and matches their own motives or what they wanted the story to be,' Mark told the publication.

Mark added the vicious rumours even reached Mr Cohen's extended family with loved ones ringing to find out if they were true.

'Everyone's asking what's going on, people asking if it's true. Of course it's not true, he's not even a politically motivated person. He's just a normal kid who now has got to deal with this,' he said.

Hours before police held a press conference and revealed Cauchi as the knifeman, Mark had taken to X to clear his son's name.

'Hey NSW Police, you need to release the name of the Bondi junction attacker before this nonsense claiming it was my son causes more harm,' he wrote.
Islamic extremists 'planning to "bomb" Eurovision Song Contest in Sweden next month over Israel taking part', reporters claim after undercover visit to Malmo mosque
Islamic extremists are planning to bomb the Eurovision Song Contest venue in Sweden next month in protest at Israel taking part, it was claimed last night.

Undercover reporters from an Israeli news channel said they were told by guards at the biggest mosque in Malmo – the city hosting the event – that terrorists are plotting to attack the arena where the five-day contest will be held.

Posing as Muslim British tourists, the reporters claim the security guards warned them not to attend the event as it will 'explode'.

One added: 'Don't go there, don't go there. They will blow it up.'

The Israeli TV channel, Keshet 12, reported the recorded conversation to organisers of the event as well as the Swedish police, who are now investigating.

Islamic extremists are planning to bomb the Eurovision Song Contest venue in Sweden next month in protest at Israel taking part, it was claimed last night.

Undercover reporters from an Israeli news channel said they were told by guards at the biggest mosque in Malmo – the city hosting the event – that terrorists are plotting to attack the arena where the five-day contest will be held.

Posing as Muslim British tourists, the reporters claim the security guards warned them not to attend the event as it will 'explode'.

One added: 'Don't go there, don't go there. They will blow it up.'

The Israeli TV channel, Keshet 12, reported the recorded conversation to organisers of the event as well as the Swedish police, who are now investigating.




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