Tuesday, October 27, 2026

10/27 Links Pt1: Netanyahu and His Main Opponent Disagree - but Not on Israel's Security; Gal Gadot: ‘Each of us has the chance to make a difference at the polls’; Danon tells Albanese she’s ‘liar, fraud, stain on United Nations’

From Ian:

Netanyahu and His Main Opponent Disagree - but Not on Israel's Security
Israelis will vote on Tuesday in the first national election since the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas-led attacks, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot the leading candidates.

Eisenkot has said he would end Hamas's rule in Gaza within 18 months - whether through President Trump's peace plan or by force - and told Israel Radio he supported building Israeli communities in the West Bank and opposes the establishment of a Palestinian state. "I am adamantly opposed to a foreign army between the river and the sea," he said, referring to the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea.

The statements leave little separating him on security issues from Netanyahu. Netanyahu's opponents "are basically saying the same thing in a more elegant way," said Tamar Hermann, a senior fellow at the Israel Democracy Institute.

Israelis remain concerned about the prospect of another Oct. 7-like attack and support continued troop presence in Gaza and Lebanon. There is now greater support for building Israeli communities in the West Bank compared with previous years, according to polls.
Nicole Lampert: Even the Israeli Left can see the West is deluded about a two-state solution
And now for most Israelis, whatever their political persuasion, the blinkers have come off. And as much as we see the conflict through a particular lens – through the suffering of the Palestinians – that is just a small part of the picture. Zoom out and you see Hamas growing in power in the West Bank without having disarmed, a radicalised population, and Iran – hurt but not broken – still intent on destroying the country.

Many Israelis feel that we in the West have on the same blinkers that blinded them to the enemies who harboured so much hatred. And that by being blind to the threat around us, we are encouraging it against them and ourselves. “As long as I hear voices coming Europe and America saying that Hamas is a legitimate organisation and they are only freedom fighters who want to liberate their people, I know there is no way for both me and the people in Gaza to have a better future,” says Hila. “We will be tangled in that story and all that is happening is Hamas is gaining its money and power.”

Her cry was echoed even more forcefully from Alon Davidi, the Netanyahu-supporting mayor of Sderot, the nearest city to Gaza which had endured regular rockets from the Strip since Hamas took over in 2007 but has seen a 10 per cent rise in its population since the ceasefire with Hamas.

“With the Muslim Brotherhood influence in London, I am afraid for you, not for me,” he warned. “There is a challenge in understanding that the Islamist radical organisations really want to finish you.”

But understanding doesn’t solve the big issues. These are the issues that Israelis, as divided as they are on internal affairs, are mostly concerned by: the wars that Israel has been enduring for the past three years with Hamas, with Hezbollah in Lebanon, with the Houthis in Yemen and with Iran – the ultimate ringmaster of the three terrorist groups.

All may have been simmering, rather than raging, but they have not gone away.

So if Netanyahu – the man who presided over the intelligence failures that precipitated October 7, who allowed the extremists in his coalition to have a dangerous amount of power, who ignored the pleas of the hostage families and who oversaw his country becoming increasingly regarded as a pariah in Western countries – wins the election it is for this reason.

Many Israelis still feel safer with him despite everything. His endorsement from Donald Trump has felt like a guarantee of America’s support for at least the final two years of the US president’s term.

And if they choose his main rival, Gadi Eisenkot – a former IDF chief who is seen as just as hawkish but without the baggage – it won’t be because he looks at the Palestinian issue in a different light, but because it will be more of the same.

Israelis see that Hamas is still a danger which won’t disappear by itself, however many times Western governments pretend a few stern words will do the trick. “We want peace, of course we do,” says Hila. “We don’t want our children and grandchildren to grow up under the shadow of bombs and rockets. But how do you have peace when there is no partner for it?”
"The Pattern" Theory of Antisemitism Explains a Moral Sickness
The Pattern is a theory of antisemitism proposed by the physicist David Deutsch. It is "a contagious, irrational pattern of thinking about morality that has persisted for millennia, characterized by a compulsive need to legitimize hurting Jews for being Jews." "Legitimization" means "acting to protect [the hurting of Jews] from being deemed morally wrong, dishonorable, taboo or intolerable."

Legitimizing the hurting of Jews is how a lot of antisemitism works these days in the West. Relatively little of it involves physical violence. Most of it involves making contorted and bizarre arguments, in polite or virtuous language, in order to defend, at any cost, regimes or groups or actions whose main purpose is to hurt Jews.

The most common version now is that Israel is committing a genocide, and that the war on Hamas is driven by Israeli zeal for killing Palestinian children. Such a position regularly leads people to excuse and lessen actions of Hamas on Oct. 7 and of Palestinian terror in general.

Antisemitism is not in fact principally a hatred, as coherent as an ideology. When hating or detesting Jews is widespread too, the Pattern posits, this is "a consequence, not a cause, of the need to legitimize hurting Jews." German composer Richard Wagner had an inkling of what was at work in him and his brethren. In 1850, he described "that unconscious feeling, which manifests itself as the People's inherent disgust at Jewish existence." The impulse precedes the manifestation.

Ayaan Hirsi Ali explained the predisposition toward antisemitism: "In Saudi Arabia, everything bad was the fault of the Jews. When the air conditioner broke or suddenly the water stopped running, the Saudi women next door used to say the Jews did it." That there were no Jews there made no difference.

Why it works like this, only in relation to Jews, is not yet explained. But for some reason, it always does. Antisemitism is capable of uniting and mobilizing unbelievably widespread and disparate blocs. Only the Pattern accurately describes the uniquely bizarre moral contortions, contradictions and flagrantly illogical arguments required for ensuring that pathways to harming Jews remain open.

Only through recognizing that the Pattern is a moral sickness can we begin to see its magnitude and power. As Deutsch says, where there is sufficient evil, you will likely see the Pattern. "No demographic is exempt from it."


Gal Gadot: ‘Each of us has the chance to make a difference at the polls’
We’ve been through three difficult and painful years since October 7. We’ve experienced loss, fear, and uncertainty here in Israel and in Jewish communities around the world, anti-Semitism has always been with us, and unfortunately, it’s not going away. In these moments, our connection to one another and to Israel become a source of strength and hope.

As an Israeli and a Jewish woman working internationally, I feel the distance between the home I know and the way we’re sometimes portrayed from the outside. I know many of you feel the same way. No matter how far I travel, Israel’s always my home. These are my people, my family, and when you love a home, you want to protect it and make it them.

In just a few hours, the polls will open for what may be the most momentous election this country has seen in years, or even ever. And tomorrow, each and every one of us, whoever can vote here, has the opportunity to make a difference.

This is the moment when we must all show up and exercise the most powerful civic right we have: the right to vote, to vote according to our beliefs, with a sense of responsibility for the people, women and men, who call it home. There’s a term in Hebrew called arvut hadadit, mutual responsibility.

And while you can translate the words, there is something about their meaning that is really, really hard to capture in any language. It is one of the most fundamental values that has always connected us. It is the instinct to reach out and help a complete stranger in a moment of need. It is knowing that there is always someone to lean on, even if you’re a new immigrant who arrived here alone from a foreign country.

And that’s what mutual responsibility means here, because in so many ways we truly are one big family. And while these past few years have been difficult for all of us, I believe that light will always overcome darkness, and I believe that this deep sense of mutual responsibility, arvut hadadit, is what will bring us back together.

I believe in our ability to build a better future here, a future with security, with hope, and with willingness to listen to one another and work together. It is in this spirit that I’m especially happy to see Bar-Ilan University placing such importance on the coexistence programs which the president spoke about earlier. I am proud to be part of this initiative and to help give them a voice, because beyond the big decisions, our future is built through people, through getting to know one another, through education, creativity, and working side by side.
Gal Gadot awarded honorary doctorate at Bar-Ilan University 70 year gala celebration
Israeli actress Gal Gadot was awarded an honorary doctorate as Bar-Ilan University celebrated its 70th anniversary with a grand gala yesterday.

The event was held in the presence of university President Prof. Arie Zaban, members of the university’s leadership, members of the Board of Trustees, philanthropists and supporters of the university, and prominent guests from Israel and around the world.

The evening celebrated exceptional achievement, visionary leadership, innovation, and outstanding contributions to society, with honorary doctorates also given to U.S. Special Envoy for Peace Missions Steve Witkoff; Chief Rabbi of Russia Rabbi Berel Lazar; Sivan Yaari, founder and chief executive of Africa Innovation; and philanthropist Sandy Frankel, trustee of the Helmsley Charitable Trust.

Accepting the award in what she called “a deeply moving moment for me”, Gadot initially joked, saying “Ima, Abba, I’m officially a doctor! I might not be able to help you with a medical emergency, but finally now you can be proud of me.”

Acknowledging the “serious stuff”, she continued: “I accept this recognition with great emotion and gratitude. It inspires me to keep creating, telling stories, and using my voice to bring people together. Thank you for choosing to honour me in this way. We’ve been through three difficult and painful years since October 7. We’ve experienced loss, fear, and uncertainty here in Israel and in Jewish communities around the world, anti-Semitism has always been with us, and unfortunately, it’s not going away”

“In these moments”, she added, “our connection to one another and to Israel has become a source of strength and hope. As an Israeli and a Jewish woman working internationally, I feel the distance between the home I know and the way we’re sometimes portrayed from the outside. I know many of you feel the same way. No matter how far I travel, Israel’s always my home. These are my people, my family, and when you love a home, you want to protect it and make it them.”


Eisenkot and Netanyahu have reason to celebrate, but Israel does not, yet
If there are two clear winners from Tuesday’s election, at least according to the exit polls, they are Gadi Eisenkot and Benjamin Netanyahu.

The former IDF chief of staff began this campaign with his party polling in the single digits. If the projections hold, the ended it as the clear head of the bloc seeking to oust Benjamin Netanyahu.

That is no small achievement, and it sends a clear message to Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Liberman: It is time to set aside their plans to force Eisenkot into a rotation agreement that would make one of them prime minister first. The opposition camp has spoken, and the voters have chosen Eisenkot. The others need to respect that decision, and if the opposition is to form a government, Eisenkot should lead it.

Netanyahu also pulled off an impressive win. Based on the projections, he is close to 27 seats, almost nine more than what the final polls said he would get. He couldn't increase his bloc, which is at about 50, but he led the Likud to an impressive accomplishment: ending, despite everything, as the largest party in the Knesset.

But while Eisenkot and Netanyahu scored personal accomplishments, the question is whether the Israeli people have won. That will take time to know.

The exit polls point to a problem that has long been known throughout the campaign: Neither camp has a decisive 61-seat majority, and neither has a clear path to forming a coalition. That leaves us with a simple but unavoidable conclusion. For Israel to form a government in the coming weeks, someone will have to break a campaign promise.

It could be Eisenkot deciding to form a government with the support of Ra’am, the Arab party led by Mansour Abbas. It could be Bennett, Liberman or even Eisenkot deciding to cross the partisan line and join a government with Netanyahu.

That is why the coming days will be so consequential. Because if no one is willing to compromise, Israel could find itself barreling straight toward another election. And after everything this country has endured in recent years, that would be a gamble we simply cannot afford.

Another conclusion from the exit polls is worth noting: a decisive majority of Israelis oppose Netanyahu and want to see him out of office. Based on projections, approximately 70 seats went to parties, Jewish and Arab, committed to ousting Netanyahu.

That does not mean all 70 support Eisenkot or that they can necessarily sit together in one government. But it does mean that Netanyahu and his coalition have lost the support of a majority of the electorate.

And this brings us to another disturbing feature of this election – the Arab turnout and the results that they brought, either 17 or 18 seats. That is unprecedented, despite the campaign that the Likud led in which it warned that Arab citizens were voting in large numbers. The message was unmistakable: high Arab turnout was presented not as a celebration of Israeli democracy but as a threat to Israel’s future.

We have become so accustomed to this rhetoric that we barely notice it anymore. But we should.
Israel election exit polls: Netanyahu, Eisenkot deadlocked as both blocs fall short of majority
No clear winner emerged in Israel’s election, according to exit polls published by Channels 11, 12, and 13 on Tuesday night, all of which showed both Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc and the opposition bloc seeking to replace him falling short of a 61-seat Knesset majority.

The opposition bloc, comprising Yashar, B’Yachad, Yisrael Beytenu, and the Democrats, was projected to win 49-51 seats, compared with 51-52 for Netanyahu’s bloc. Channels 13 and 11 exit polls projected that both Netanyahu's bloc and the opposition bloc were tied at 51 seats each, while Channel 12 polls projected Netanyahu's bloc to receive 52 seats. Polling data predicted Likud winning 27 seats, with Yashar projected to win 21-22 seats. Neither side appeared to have a clear path to forming a coalition, though the opposition bloc declared victory shortly after the exit polls were released.

The Joint List and Ra’am were projected to win a record-breaking combined 18-19 seats, potentially making Arab parties pivotal to coalition negotiations. However, opposition leaders have largely ruled out forming a government with the Arab parties, barring the Democrats' Yair Golan.

Netanyahu’s Likud was projected to receive 27 seats and was set to remain the largest party in the next Knesset, while Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar was expected to win 20-22 seats, according to the exit polls.

Most recent polling ahead of the Tuesday vote had shown neither Netanyahu’s bloc nor the opposition bloc as managing to secure a 61-seat majority. Voter turnout reached its highest level since at least 1973, according to Central Elections Committee records, which have tracked turnout at set times throughout Election Day since then.

The final voter turnout number came out as 77.7% when polls closed at 10:00 p.m., according to the Central Elections Committee (CEC), up by 7.1% recorded in the 2022 election.

The small right-wing parties hovering near the electoral threshold, Ofer Winter’s People of Israel and Yoaz Hendel’s The Reservists-Economic party, were both projected to fall short of the required 3.25% threshold, potentially further complicating efforts by Netanyahu’s bloc to secure a majority.
Commentary Podcast: Let it Bibi
The Israeli election is in full swing with the highest turnout in 50 years. What will this mean for the Arab parties, Netanyahu's chances of survival, and will an Eisenkot victory expose American leftists who claim to only be anti-Bibi? Plus, the midterms loom large with the Michigan race seemingly tied and reports that early voting turnout in the state is down.
HonestReporting: Who Will Keep Me Safe? Yaakov Katz on What Israel's First Election Since October 7 Really Means
On October 27, Israel holds its first national election since October 7, and the coalition on the ballot is the one that was in office that morning. Yaakov Katz, former editor-in-chief of The Jerusalem Post and a senior fellow at the Jewish People Policy Institute, calls it a referendum on accountability. But he calls October 7 "a coin" with two sides: the failures that led to it, and a war that left Hamas "a shadow of its former self," Hezbollah degraded and Iran's nuclear facilities damaged. That's a big part of why so many Israelis who are angry at this government may still vote for it.

He walks through how Israeli elections actually work, and whether anyone will know the next government on election night ("Pretty sure we won't"). He explains why left and right don't explain this race: with the two-state solution off the table, what keeps the party leaders apart is personalities. From there: the "konseptzia" at the heart of his book While Israel Slept, written with Amir Bohbot; the tribes of Israeli politics; why he thinks Donald Trump's endorsement "mostly helps" Netanyahu; how Israel can stop being "a football that you kick around in American politics"; and what American Jews misunderstand about "what government, statehood, and a Jewish state actually means."

Katz ran The Jerusalem Post through five elections in three and a half years. His verdict on how the world's media explains Israeli politics: "Mostly wrong." He closes on what still gives him hope: the resilience of Israel's young people.

CHAPTERS
00:00 Cold Open & Introducing Yaakov Katz
03:28 The first election since October 7
05:12 "Who's gonna keep me safe?"
12:38 Coalition math and the Arab parties after October 7
17:51 How Israeli elections actually work
20:49 Why left and right don't explain this race
25:59 While Israel Slept and the konseptziya
29:31 Why voting feels real in Israel
31:24 What each side fears, and Israel's tribes
38:09 Trump's endorsement and Israel in American politics
45:33 What American Jews misunderstand about Israel
49:29 Could there be a national unity government?
51:50 How the world's media will cover the results
53:37 What still gives him hope
56:15 Closing thoughts


Ben Shapiro: What Americans Need to Know About Israel’s Elections
We give you everything you need to know about today’s elections in Israel.


Ask Haviv Anything: 156: Go vote. It isn't optional
Even if you hate every option on the ballot today, staying home is a vote for the factions you dislike most. And understanding David Ben-Gurion’s founding principle of mamlachtiut reveals why showing up to the polls is as vital to Israel's survival as military reserve duty.

Chapters
00:00 Why voting is a duty, not an option
02:02 How staying home can help the side you oppose
05:14 What Ben-Gurion meant by mamlachtiut
07:07 Statehood as shared responsibility
09:17 Freedom through obligation and public service
12:14 Collective responsibility and the danger of oppression
14:25 Ben-Gurion on individual rights and the collective
16:29 Why elections and the rule of law matter
21:10 The biblical roots of lawful political power
25:32 Voting as ownership of the political choice
26:29 The call to vote and sustain Israeli democracy




Danon tells Albanese she’s ‘liar, fraud, stain on United Nations’
Danny Danon, Israeli ambassador to the United Nations in New York, told Francesca Albanese, U.S. special rapporteur on the “situation of human rights in the Palestinian territory occupied since 1967,” that she is embarrassing the global body.

Albanese, who is one of the advisers that the United Nations considers an “independent expert,” presented her most recent report, which calls for Israeli media figures to be prosecuted for, she said, inciting “genocide,” on Monday. She also accused the Jewish state of targeting Palestinian journalists.

Danon responded after the presentation.

“You are a liar, a fraud, and a stain on the United Nations,” he told Albanese. “Your accusations are not proof. Your assumptions are not evidence, and repeating the word ‘genocide’ does not make it true.”

The Israeli envoy also accused Albanese of claiming “to defend human rights while ignoring the Hamas terrorist organization that tramples them.”

He showed her a resignation letter that the Israeli mission had drafted with her name on it and urged her to sign it.

“You are undermining the credibility of the United Nations and exploiting its emblem to spread anti-Israel propaganda,” he said. “The only official letter you should issue is your resignation letter. It’s time for you to go home.”


U.S. Wants Control of Israeli Technology in Exchange for Aid
The stumbling block in talks over a new U.S.-Israel defense aid package is not financial support but control of technology.

The current Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) on U.S. military aid to Israel expires in 2028 and Prime Minister Netanyahu has said Israel can no longer rely on U.S. defense assistance in its current form.

U.S. officials are demanding not merely the sharing of knowledge, but the transfer of Israeli expertise to the U.S., to be managed by the U.S., including patents and joint development programs.

This is a scenario that Israel cannot accept. It means the erosion of the fundamental technological advantage held by its defense industries in the international market.

Even after a MOU has been signed, Congress must still approve aid to Israel annually. If the majority shifts to the Democrats in the midterm elections, this may pose a challenge, even with an MOU in place.
RAF Fairford ‘plot coordinated by handler working on behalf of Iran’
A group of men were ordered to drive vans loaded with petrol to RAF Fairford by a handler known as ‘Ali’ who police believe was working on behalf of Iran, a court heard.

One of the five men tasked with driving to the base called police in the early hours of September 27 after the organiser warned the group of a bomb in the vans, prosecutors told Westminster Magistrates’ Court.

Mohmed Abdulkarim, 24, and Nouman Essghir, 24, both appeared in court on Tuesday charged under the National Security Act 2023.

Abdulkarim, of London, is accused of assisting a foreign intelligence service, by acting as an “intermediary” for the handler Ali.

While Essghir, also of London, has been charged with entering a prohibited place for a purpose prejudicial to the UK, relating to an alleged “reconnaissance” mission on August 22, around a month before the Fairford incident.

Both men appeared in court and spoke to confirm their names, addresses and dates of birth.

After loading the vans and travelling to RAF Fairford, the men were allegedly told to park the vans and walk away by the organiser over the phone.

Prosecuting, Louise Gray, said: “Shortly thereafter the message was received that there was a bomb in the vehicles and one of them called the police.”

Police attended, located three white vans and five men, who were arrested.

No explosives, or improvised explosives were found in the vans, the court heard.

Police did find a metal oil drum in each, two of which had petrol in, along with hard plastic water butts and internet-enabled dashcams.

Abdulkarim is alleged to have aided the organiser, Ali, who is believed to be abroad and to be acting in the interests of the Iranian state.

Ali is also potentially connected to an incident at the Israeli embassy earlier this year, where propaganda videos were posted online suggesting it had been attacked with a chemical weapon by a drone, the court heard.
Spate of Shootings in Toronto Were Likely Paid For by Iran
A CBC News investigation has pinpointed a dozen politically-motivated gun-for-hire shootings in Toronto that appear to have been financed by the Iranian government.

The attacks targeted synagogues, a school, and businesses in the Greater Toronto Area, as well as the U.S. Consulate. Many of the shootings came in the hours and days after the U.S. and Israel began bombing Iran on Feb. 28.

No one was injured in the shootings, which bore the hallmarks of gun-for-hire incidents: early morning attacks where suspects arrived via stolen cars and emptied handguns into building entranceways, while they or their accomplices filmed the acts on a phone.

In recent years, the Iranian government and its intelligence service have been linked to plots and attacks in Germany, the Netherlands, the UK, Australia and the U.S.
Europe's New Financial Transparency Rules Expose Iran's IRGC Networks
New regulations announced on Oct. 16, 2026, represent a major operational turning point in the EU's counter-proliferation and anti-financial crime architecture.

Their practical effect is the eradication of the structural ambiguity that sanctioned actors, like the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), have historically exploited to penetrate Europe.

The regulation dismantles the viability of front companies, nominee arrangements, and multi-layered cross-border trusts used to establish European corporate footprints and secure access to banking, payment, and capital market infrastructures.
What Are Gazans Saying about Disarming Hamas?
Gaza social media discourse has recently shown a clear shift regarding the disarmament of Hamas. Once an ideological symbol whose relinquishment was seen as surrender, the issue has become the subject of pragmatic debate about the benefits of continuing the armed struggle weighed against the heavy price Gaza's population is paying.

Sustained and substantial online debate about disarmament took shape mainly over the past year, as the debate over disarming moved beyond Hamas's critics and began to appear among Hamas supporters as well. Among those who criticize Hamas, disarmament marks a shift in priorities resulting from the consequences of the war: for now, the population's survival and reconstruction take precedence over preserving Hamas's weapons.

Pragmatic voices are also being heard among Hamas supporters, willing to discuss disarmament as part of an arrangement that would end the war and allow Gaza's reconstruction. This should not be interpreted as abandoning the idea of resistance. Rather, it marks a willingness to give up some military capability to ensure Hamas's survival and allow the armed struggle to continue.

To understand how such a concession has become possible involves the distinction in Palestinian discourse between defeat (hazima) and surrender (istislam). A military defeat can be explained as the result of an imbalance of power and does not require abandoning the legitimacy of the struggle. Surrender, by contrast, carries the connotation of humiliation.

The online discourse on disarmament reflects a rare moment in which the boundaries of debate in Gaza are shifting. For the first time, issues once treated as beyond question are being publicly reassessed in light of the war's consequences. Underlying this shift is a recognition that Gaza's reality has changed. The weapons are shifting from a source of legitimacy to a subject of scrutiny: What have they achieved? What is the cost of keeping them?


Israel marks 32 years of peace with Jordan
Israel’s Foreign Ministry on Monday marked the 32nd anniversary of the signing of the peace treaty with Jordan, describing the agreement as a cornerstone of regional stability.

“Today, we mark 32 years since the signing of the Israel–Jordan Peace Treaty: a historic milestone that laid the foundation for dialogue and cooperation between our two countries,” read a ministry statement posted to X.



“Especially during challenging times, the strategic treaty remains a cornerstone of regional stability and a solid platform for future mutually beneficial initiatives,” it added.

The Oct. 26, 1994 agreement made Jordan the second Arab country to establish diplomatic relations with Israel, following Egypt in 1979.

Relations have nonetheless been strained. Last month, Israel’s Foreign Ministry sharply criticized Jordan’s King Abdullah II after he accused Israel of pursuing expansionist policies during a U.N. General Assembly address, urging countries to consider sanctions, embargoes and diplomatic isolation. The ministry accused Jordan of hypocrisy, citing its 1988 decision to revoke the citizenship of Palestinians living in Judea and Samaria.


Mike Kelly: What must Australia Learn from the Middle East War? Part 1 | Ep081 Frontlines & Faultlines
Australia may be far from the frontlines—but it is not beyond the reach of modern warfare.

In Part 1 of this two-part strategic analysis, Dr. Mike Kelly identifies strategic insights from the conflicts involving Israel, Hamas and Iran—and considers what they reveal about intelligence, cyberwarfare, energy security and national resilience.

Beginning with the Hamas-led attack of October 7, we examine the intelligence failure that allowed a substantial force to penetrate deep into southern Israel. Hamas reduced its electronic communications, relied heavily on word of mouth and restricted knowledge of the operation to a tightly controlled inner circle, limiting the effectiveness of Israel’s signals and human intelligence networks.

The implications extend well beyond Israel: an adversary will study your greatest strengths and search for a way around them. Technological superiority cannot replace human intelligence, rigorous red-teaming or a willingness to question assumptions about an opponent’s capabilities.

Dr. Kelly unpacks how seemingly harmless online activity can become a source of operational intelligence. Social-media posts, background details in videos and fragments of publicly available information can be collected and combined to reveal military facilities, security measures and patterns of behaviour. For Australian defence personnel, government agencies and critical-infrastructure operators, the implications are immediate.

The discussion turns to the systems that keep a country functioning during war. Israel’s experience exposed vulnerabilities created by centralised power generation, limited emergency reserves and infrastructure that could be targeted physically or digitally. Its response has included greater use of distributed energy, microgrids, storage systems, backup fuel supplies and infrastructure capable of continuing to operate when parts of the national network are damaged.

Communication resilience is equally critical. Redundant fibre and satellite connections, secure mesh networks, mobile base stations, mirrored databases and trusted cloud backups can preserve command, emergency services and economic activity during missile attacks, sabotage or cyber disruption.

This episode also delves into the expanding cyber confrontation between Israel and Iran. Modern warfare no longer separates physical attacks from digital operations: cyber capabilities can disrupt command networks, banking, energy systems, government communications and information channels while conventional military operations are underway.

For Australia, the warning is clear. Energy, communications, cloud infrastructure and public digital literacy can no longer be treated solely as civilian concerns. They are essential components of national defence—and resilience must be built before a crisis exposes the weaknesses.

Part 2 next week will continue this strategic analysis with AI-enabled targeting, intelligence and the evolving systems shaping modern warfare.


What must Australia learn from the Middle East War? Part 2 | Ep082 Frontlines & Faultlines
Is Australia preparing for the conflicts it could actually face? From AI-assisted targeting to drone swarms and vulnerable shipping routes, the conflicts in the Middle East carry direct implications for our own defence planning.

In Part 2 of this two-part analysis, Dr. Mike Kelly turns from the broader strategic picture to the operational challenges of modern warfare—and what Australia should learn from them. How do armed forces process overwhelming volumes of intelligence, defend against simultaneous threats and sustain operations when the cost of defence far exceeds the cost of attack?

The discussion begins with artificial intelligence: its role in intelligence analysis, targeting, missile detection and civilian warning systems, alongside questions of human oversight, accountability and civilian protection. These developments highlight the urgency for Australia to develop and integrate its own capabilities as military decision-making evolves.

The focus then shifts to Iran’s relationships with Russia, China and North Korea, and the connections between military cooperation, information warfare and threats beyond the Middle East. Dr. Kelly explores why setbacks on the battlefield may increase a regime’s reliance on asymmetric tactics—and why these challenges matter for Australia’s domestic security as well as its regional strategy.

The Strait of Hormuz provides a central case study. Sea mines, fast attack boats, drones, anti-ship missiles and electronic interference can place enormous pressure on commercial shipping and the forces protecting it. Defeating those threats requires layers of defence, but also raises difficult questions about cost, ammunition supplies and endurance. How sustainable is it to fire a multimillion-dollar missile at a relatively inexpensive drone?

Other areas explored include Iran’s nuclear ambitions, the challenges of urban and underground warfare, and the potential role of electronic warfare and directed-energy systems in making defence more sustainable.

The final section considers Israel’s approach to adapting and sustaining its F-35 fleet, drawing out implications for Australia’s aircraft readiness, maintenance independence, software integration and operations across the vast distances of the Indo-Pacific.


The ABC reveals it is investigating bombshell claims taxpayer funds were used to hire a Hamas terrorist to work on its flagship 7.30 program
The ABC is investigating allegations that a Gaza-based freelancer who provided footage to its 7.30 program had links to Hamas.

Executives have told a Senate estimates hearing they were seeking further evidence from Israeli authorities before drawing any conclusions, but ABC editorial director Gavin Fang said the broadcaster took the allegations 'very seriously'.

Fang revealed that he had approached the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) for further information about freelance videographer Roshdi Sarraj, 31, who was killed in Gaza on October 22, 2023.

His death in an Israeli air strike was eulogised by 7.30 host Sarah Ferguson, who publicly sent condolences to the family, and called him 'brave' and an 'excellent journalist'.

The claims emerged after The Australian reported that Sarraj was among media workers killed in Gaza whom the IDF alleges were connected to Hamas.

Asked by Liberal senator Sarah Henderson whether the ABC had investigated the allegations, Fang replied: 'Yes, absolutely.'

'We have attempted to get some clarification from the IDF about their position on this, and as yet, they have not provided us with any evidence to suggest otherwise,' Fang said.

'We have asked for further evidence from the IDF, and until we are able to find something that goes to the veracity of that claim, I don't think it's incumbent on us to make a decision, to declare that that person was a member of Hamas.'

Henderson pressed ABC managing director Hugh Marks on what safeguards the broadcaster had in place to ensure it was not hiring Hamas members.

'I just want to ask what the ABC's doing to vet journalists and media companies in Gaza to make sure that you are not hiring terrorists,' she said.



 



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2019 Nobel Peace Prize nominee

Elder of Ziyon - حـكـيـم صـهـيـون



This blog may be a labor of love for me, but it takes a lot of effort, time and money. For 20 years and 40,000 articles I have been providing accurate, original news that would have remained unnoticed. I've written hundreds of scoops and sometimes my reporting ends up making a real difference. I appreciate any donations you can give to keep this blog going.

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