Wednesday, July 08, 2026

07/07 Links Pt1: A Richer Iranian Regime Means a More Violent One; US launches ‘powerful strikes’ against Iran in response to Iran firing on ships in Hormuz

From Ian:

Tom Tugendhat: A Richer Iranian Regime Means a More Violent One
Supporters of the U.S.-Iran MoU in Tehran consider it an ideological victory, a deal that confirms the regime's claims to dominate the Strait of Hormuz and project power in the Middle East. Yet, skeptical observers want to know: How much extra security spending will be necessary if Iranian terror groups receive the biggest injection of funds in a generation?

A decade ago, once the Obama administration eased sanctions as part of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the Iranian regime spent billions on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' support for the Assad regime in Syria and on Hizbullah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza and the Houthis in Yemen.

Some in Europe have viewed Iran as a regional problem, but in October 2025, the director general of MI5, Britain's domestic security agency, said the country had tracked more than 20 potentially lethal Iran-backed plots in the past year alone. Tehran's influence campaigns have evidently moved online too. Pro-Scottish independence accounts recently went silent when the internet was shut off in Iran.

Since the death of the last supreme leader, the IRGC has largely taken over the state. They aren't interested in serving their fellow citizens but in killing ours. Whatever any treaty says, once new money is in the country, it will allow funds once spent on essentials to be used to spread hate. No deal will tie the hands of the IRGC.

History suggests, then, that this deal is more expensive than the fine print lets on. A richer Iranian regime will be a more violent regime, costing lives in the region and threatening others around the world. That means national security services will face more hostile state activity and a new urgency in detecting and disrupting threats. They will need more resources for that fight.
Jake Wallis Simons: The three-word chant that demolishes the case for peace with Iran
The Iranians want peace, apparently. At least, that’s what Donald Trump has been claiming since he exchanged his determination to defeat the Islamic Regime for an insatiable desire to appease it.

Sure, the US president has sometimes oscillated back towards childish threats of death and destruction. Last month, he vowed to “finish the job” and “resume a bombing campaign” if Iran did not “behave”.

But his actions – cancelling the most effective parts of his campaign before signing a deal that vowed to end US hostility, lift all sanctions, fund a rebuilding effort, tie Israel’s hands in Lebanon and kick the nuclear can down the road – have already shown the world which of his Janus faces should be taken more seriously.

Well, one can only imagine how he feels watching the dreadful scenes at the funeral of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, which was so provocatively timed to coincide with the 250th anniversary of the birth of America.

A cowed and broken regime might have been expected to tone down the usual “death to America” and “death to Israel” content, for fear of further aggravating the world’s only superpower. We’d better give it a rest, they might have muttered. For now, at least.

Instead, the rhetoric was gratuitous. Along with the standard “death to America” cries, they shouted, “our word is one! revenge! revenge!” amid the sight of Khamenei’s coffin. In the mob at Grand Mosalla, a banner displayed the slogan: “#KillTrump”.
Hamas Rakes in Millions, Prepares for War
Israeli security officials say Hamas is continuing to grow stronger and rebuild itself for a confrontation with Israel, both through money reaching it from outside Gaza and thanks to the "humanitarian" aid that continues to enter Gaza unchecked, about 600 trucks a day, while the real need is only about 200-250 trucks a day.

Hamas directly taxes the incoming trucks, collecting a tax of 15-30% from merchants. Hamas also forces merchants to sell their goods to traders operating under its auspices at a "supervised" price, so it can take a cut of the profits. In addition, Hamas manages to smuggle banned products into Gaza, such as cigarettes, which are sold at high prices and taxed at a higher rate.

There is evidence that Hamas sells electricity produced by hospital generators to residents living near the hospitals, using fuel that enters Gaza for humanitarian needs. It also charges rent for local merchants operating markets and stalls, and imposes fees for renewing business licenses. All this enables Hamas to efficiently fund its military arrays.

Sources in the defense establishment said, "The money Hamas receives from outside Gaza, along with the strengthening it achieves through the aid entering the Strip, enables it to rehabilitate military infrastructure and recruit new and young operatives who cannot find other work in Gaza. The money Hamas offers is their solution."

"We cannot repeat the statements we made before Oct. 7, according to which Hamas was deterred and would not attack. We cannot once again ignore what the other side is doing."


Dear Antonio Guterres: Fairness, Israel, and the legacy of your UN
Dear Antonio,
I have hesitated before writing this letter.

Not because I lack heavy concerns about the direction the United Nations has taken regarding Israel, but because I have known you for many years and have always believed your intentions were honorable.

I still remember the early days of your candidacy for secretary-general. I recall you saying that Portugal’s decline began with the oppression of its Jews. It was a thoughtful observation that reflected an understanding of Jewish history, and the damage societies inflict upon themselves when they exclude their Jewish communities.

Over the years, our paths crossed several times. As CEO of the World Jewish Congress, I was involved in your one and only visit to Israel and had the opportunity to meet with you on several occasions. Those meetings left me with the impression of a leader committed to human dignity, dialogue, and fairness.

That is why I turn to you personally today.

Let me be clear: I do not believe you are personally biased against Jews. I do not believe you harbor hostility toward Israel. On the contrary, I have always believed that your desire was to strengthen the United Nations as a force for peace and human rights.

Yet when I look at the UN’s approach toward Israel in recent years, I struggle to reconcile what I know of you with what I see coming from the institution you lead, which is completely disproportional and unjustified.

One meeting remains particularly vivid in my memory. It took place in 2024, not long after the horrors of the October 7 massacre.

What was supposed to be a brief conversation lasted nearly ninety minutes. We discussed the hostages, the trauma inflicted on Israeli society, and the responsibility of the international community. I left believing you genuinely cared and intended to act. I felt similarly encouraged when you appointed a senior UN official dedicated to combating antisemitism.

Those decisions mattered.


US reimposes oil sanctions on Iran
The U.S. Treasury Department reimposed sanctions on the export of Iranian oil on Tuesday, removing one of the largest benefits Iran received under the memorandum of understanding between the two countries.

The department revoked its General License X from June 21, which waived nearly a dozen sanctions packages and authorized the regime to produce, deliver and sell “crude oil, petrochemical products and petroleum products of Iranian-origin” for 60 days without restriction.

The move comes after Iran fired two missiles at a pair of commercial ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz between Iran and Oman. The attack reportedly caused significant damage to the vessels but no casualties.

Iran’s position that it has the right to control and potentially charge tolls on shipping through the vital energy corridor has been one of the largest sticking points in negotiations with the United States before and since the signing of the memorandum of understanding to end the war between the two countries.

Officials from the Trump administration have insisted that the deal would be “performance-based” and that any benefits Iran received, including unfrozen Iranian assets and lifted sanctions, could be revoked at any time.

The new order from the Treasury Department to “wind down” the previous license allows Iran to proceed with any sales already underway until July 17, creating a 10-day window in which the United States and Iran could try to resolve the dispute.


US says it has launched ‘powerful strikes’ against Iran in response to Iran firing on ships in Hormuz
American forces launched strikes against the Iranian regime in response to the Islamic Republic’s attacks on civilian-manned commercial ships on Tuesday.

U.S. Central Command said that its forces “have begun launching a series of powerful strikes against Iran to impose heavy costs for targeting and attacking commercial shipping crewed by innocent civilians in an international waterway.”

“The U.S. strikes are in response to Iranian attacks on three commercial vessels that were transiting the Strait of Hormuz,” CENTCOM said. “Iran’s demonstrated aggression was unwarranted, dangerous and a clear violation of the ceasefire.”

Iran fired missiles at commercial ships transiting the waterway between Iran and Oman, reportedly causing significant damage but no casualties.

The strikes come as the U.S. Treasury Department reimposed sanctions on the export of Iranian oil in response to Iran’s attacks, and as U.S. President Donald Trump is currently in Ankara, Turkey, for a NATO summit.

Jason Brodsky, policy director of United Against Nuclear Iran, said that “the costs for Iran’s regime’s violations of the memorandum of understanding have been increasing.”

Hussain Abdul-Hussain, a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, called the renewed strikes a “brilliant step.”

“CENTCOM is disciplining Islamic Iran, which was taking America’s measurements and testing its limits,” he said.

Iran’s deputy foreign minister for legal and international affairs, Kazem Gharibabadi, accused the United States of violating the memorandum of understanding, not only with Tuesday’s renewed strikes but also due to recent “actions of the Zionist regime in Lebanon and threatening statements against Iran.”

He warned that Iran “will take decisive actions to safeguards its national interests and security.”


Explosions rock Damascus, wounding 18, near visiting French President Macron’s hotel
Explosions rocked Damascus on Tuesday as France’s president met with his Syrian counterpart in a landmark visit, wounding at least 18 people, Syria’s Interior Ministry said.

Emmanuel Macron had entered the presidential palace to meet Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa when the explosions happened near the Four Seasons Hotel, where Syrian media reported that the French president was staying.

An Elysee official said Macron was safe and that his meeting with Sharaa was continuing. He is the first major Western leader to visit Syria since Sharaa came to power, and his visit comes before he heads to a NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey. The official spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss Macron’s whereabouts and security.

In a post to his X feed, Macron wrote, “Nothing can smother the aspiration of Syrian women and men to live in a fully sovereign, safe, pluralistic, and united Syria.

“This morning I met Syria in all its diversity. I saw dignity, courage, and determination. My visit continues,” he wrote.

But the explosions are a blow for Sharaa, who came to power after leading an insurgency that ousted Bashar al-Assad in 2024.


Israeli, Greek air forces hold joint aerial refueling exercise
The Israeli Air Force conducted a joint aerial refueling exercise with Greece’s Hellenic Air Force in the eastern Mediterranean in recent days, the Israel Defense Forces confirmed to JNS on Monday.

The IDF Spokesperson’s Unit told JNS that the exercise “was conducted as part of a routine training activity aimed at maintaining operational readiness, in cooperation with the Greek Air Force.”

It added, “as part of the exercise, aerial refueling aircraft participated in joint training activities.”

The drill, first reported by Greek military news website OnAlert.gr on Monday, took place shortly before the July 7-8, 2026 NATO Summit in Ankara.

The IDF said its operations were carried out “in a designated refueling area south of the island of Crete, which is not located in an area of friction with NATO or the Turkish military.”

“This is a pre-approved training area coordinated with the relevant civilian air traffic control authorities and the Greek Air Force, and all relevant air traffic authorities in the area are familiar with the activity,” the statement concluded.

According to OnAlert.gr, the exercise involved an IAF aerial tanker refueling Greek F-16 fighter jets, a drill the report said demonstrated Athens’s ability to conduct long-range operations with Israeli support.

OnAlert.gr noted that Ankara has grown increasingly concerned by closer Israeli-Greek military ties, particularly cooperation between their air forces, which operate advanced aircraft including Israel’s F-35I “Adir” and Greece’s F-16 “Viper” fighter jets.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu earlier on Monday urged U.S. President Donald Trump not to provide advanced fighter jets or engines to Turkey, saying that doing so would undermine both America’s and the Jewish state’s military edge in the region.
Parched Jordan fuming at Israeli refusal to renew expired water deal – report
Jordan is furious about Israel’s continued refusal to renew a 2021 water agreement between the two neighbors, the Kan public broadcaster reported Monday.

The 1994 peace treaty between Israel and Jordan mandates that Jerusalem supply 50 million cubic meters annually to its eastern neighbor. In 2021, during the Naftali Bennett-Yair Lapid government, Israel agreed to double the amount of fresh water it provides to Jordan, one of the world’s most water-deficient countries.

The 2021 agreement expired in late 2025 after a series of extensions, though Israel still supplies the initial 50 million cubic meters laid out in the peace treaty. Israel reportedly conditioned the supply of the additional volume on Jordan moderating its rhetoric toward Israel and restoring full diplomatic ties.

A Jordanian source close to the royal family told the outlet: “The water issue is very important to us, and is part of the peace treaty.”

Jordan’s King Abdullah declined repeated requests from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to meet in March, according to Israeli media reports. One of Abdullah’s demands for agreeing to a meeting was the renewal of the water agreement, the report said.

Energy Minister Eli Cohen had been renewing the additional agreement every six months, reportedly under pressure from the US and because Jordan helped shoot down Iranian drones fired at Israel, the Ynet news site reported. However, Jerusalem became reluctant to continue the process in the face of repeated criticism of Israel by Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi.

The water issue is one of the topics that would be on the agenda of a possible trilateral energy summit that would be hosted by the United Arab Emirates, Ynet said.


Committee to Protect Journalists: We will continue to recognize media members affiliated with terror groups
The Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ), the world's largest organization of its kind dubbed the 'Red Cross of journalism,' voted 17 to 1 to maintain its definition recognizing media members affiliated with terror organizations like Hamas as legitimate journalists 'as long as they are not involved in combat or inciting violence in a manner that could have immediate impact.' The vote came amid public criticism surrounding the organization's list of journalists killed in the Gaza war, which includes dozens of military operatives from Hamas and other terror organizations. Fox News was the only network that voted against the decision, while other major media outlets, The New York Times, Reuters and AP voted in favor.


Turkey's Erdogan Wages War on the West and Israel
American and European leaders are revving up their engines to coddle, cradle, and embrace the radical, antisemitic, and viciously anti-Western and anti-Israeli Turkish President Erdogan at a meeting of NATO leaders in Ankara.

Washington just announced that it will ship to Ankara eighty engines worth more than $700 million for Turkey's homegrown fighter jet, and it is positively considering letting Turkey back into the F-35 jet program.

This is astonishingly unwise and infuriating because Turkey under Erdogan openly seeks to undermine the values and long-term interests of the West, and to obliterate Israel. Erdogan regularly brands the U.S. a declining hegemon and an "imperialist sponsor of terrorism," sides with Russia against the West in defense of Iran, and hosts Hamas military headquarters. It is time to confront Erdogan about his much-too-close alignment with Russia, China, and Iran; his military occupation of northern Cyprus and northern Syria; and the actual war he wages against Israel.

Erdogan is a true-believing antisemite who considers classic antisemitic myths like the Protocols of the Elder of Zion as truth. He honestly hates Jews and Israelis, and his preference is to lead a pan-Islamic coalition to crush Israel. In 2025, he publicly prayed that "Allah make Zionist Israel destroyed and devastated." Just this week, he repeated the wild claim that the 2016 coup attempt in Turkey was organized by "the genocidal, occupying, and expansionist ideology called Zionism."

According to President Trump, Erdogan's military was prepped to join Iran's war against Israel this year until Trump "asked Erdogan not to do so." Last week, the IDF revealed yet another Hamas terrorist network directed from Turkish soil which recruited operatives to carry out terror attacks and which transferred weapons and funds into Judea and Samaria.

Erdogan has jailed more journalists, judges, generals and academics than any other country in the world, including China. He is building 40,000 new jail cells to handle the overload. Erdogan needs to be cut down to size. How can it be that American and European leaders don't see this?
Don’t Launder Erdogan’s Record at the NATO Summit
The NATO summit convening in Ankara this week will offer Turkish strongman Recep Tayyip Erdogan an opportunity to present himself as a vital ally: one with a military capable of blunting Russian aggression, credibility among Muslim and Arab countries to help stabilize the Middle East, and the ability to project power in defense of NATO’s southeastern flank.

The Trump administration appears tempted to buy what Erdogan is selling. It should not.

In late June, the administration notified Congress of its intent to proceed with the sale of more than $700 million in General Electric F110 engines to power Turkey’s indigenous fifth-generation fighter — the Kaan — overriding a congressional hold. Speaking alongside Vice President JD Vance, the president signaled he was prepared to make Erdogan “very happy” on both the engines and even on potentially readmitting Turkey to the F-35 program.

Turkey was removed from the F-35 program in 2019 after it purchased the Russian S-400 missile defense system — potentially allowing Moscow to collect sensitive data on the F-35’s stealth signature. The legal framework Congress developed to address this — CAATSA sanctions and Section 1245 of the FY2020 National Defense Authorization Act — bars F-35 transfers to Turkey unless Ankara removes the S-400 and its personnel. Inexplicably, that system remains on Turkish soil.

Congressional opponents of making Erdogan “very happy” say the administration bypassed required review and failed to certify that Turkey had addressed the conditions that led to its expulsion from the program in the first place. Those objections have yet to be formally heard.

Erdogan’s allies argue that Turkey is an important ally of the West and that the Ankara summit is proof of this. U.S. Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack is chief among them but is on the wrong side of this debate. Since 2024, Turkey has deployed F-16 combat aircraft — acquired through U.S. foreign military sales — to Northern Cyprus, which Turkey has occupied illegally since 1974. In June, Turkish jets harassed aircraft carrying the defense ministers of Greece, France, and the Netherlands as they flew into Nicosia for an EU meeting. These are not the actions of a loyal ally. They are the actions of a government testing Western resolve to defend its own members.


Terrorists, tyrants, loons – and the BBC – descend on Khamenei’s funeral
How Hitler must be turning in his metaphorical grave. The 20th century’s leading Jew hater did not get to enjoy a state funeral. His fellow Nazis were left to mourn his passing in private.

But for Hitler’s successor to the title of his century’s leading Jew hater, things are very different. There’s only one global gathering that matters at the moment for the world’s loons, bigots, racists and – oh yes – “anti-imperialists” and it’s not the World Cup. All eyes are on Tehran and Qom and the spectacle of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s state funeral.

Like flies to faeces, the funeral of one of the most evil men in living memory has drawn a collection of appropriate visiting dignitaries. Hamas political bureau chief Mohammed Darwish is there along with a Hezbollah delegation under Mohammed Fneish, including the families of dead terrorists. A nice city break for the martyrs’ kin.

Palestinian Islamic Jihad leader Ziyad al-Nakhalah has come, as has senior Houthi Dhaif Allah al-Shami. They’re joined by Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif and army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir, Tajikistan's President Emomali Rahmon and Armenia's PM Nikol Pashinyan. Russia, China, and Turkey have also sent representatives.

It’s like a mash up of Smersh, Spectre and all the baddies from Team America: World Police. Of course it is: what else to expect from a funeral organised by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)? The organising committee is headed by Brigadier General Hassan Hassanzadeh of the IRGC's Tehran Command. Indeed, the funeral has seen the public re-emergence of Ahmad Vahidi, the newly appointed IRGC commander-in-chief. For months he has been in hiding, doubtless as a result of the previous IRGC command structure being wiped out.

Not that you’d know any of this from the cloying coverage of so much of the media. The state funeral, reported with route maps and breathless commentary of the millions on the streets, has been staged and choreographed by an organisation which is about to be prescribed by legislation in the UK and is already a designated foreign terrorist organisation in the US, the EU, Canada and Australia. For the BBC, ITV and Sky, however, it’s just a state funeral like any other, with the usual language: "mourners throng", "sea of mourners", "paying their respects", accompanied by vox pops of weeping “ordinary” Iranians and royal-funeral-style logistics coverage and credulous regurgitating of the IRGC-supplied crowd figure of 20 million (so far), with no hint that these might – could you ever credit it? – be exaggerated. Then again, as we know all too well now, it’s par for the course for broadcasters to recycle uncritically figures supplied by terrorists.

For CNN, the Ayatollah was “slain” – as if the leader of the world’s largest sponsor of terror was some sort of innocent victim gunned down in a terrible mistake. The broadcaster had a team embedded in the processions, which reported on the chants of “Death to America”, “Death to Israel” and “Death to the West” with the description, “Funeral crowds fill Tehran streets in show of defiance". Defiance is one word for screaming for the murder of millions.

If you’re looking for alternative perspectives on the funeral, I’d suggest avoiding social media. The Iranians have flown in a group of the usual suspects to do their usual thing. Max Blumenthal, for example, tells us how he has “met people from around the world who've come to pay respects, including many from across the West…These days of mourning will amount to one of the most resonant moments in the history of anti-imperialist movements…What we're witnessing in the Mosala consolidates the Islamic Republic and its revolutionary society as a political reality that can not be erased through regime change war or sanctions. This is a turning point in the region that will echo for a generation.” Not that he is a shill for the world’s leading sponsor of terror. Of course not.
The Ayatollah’s Funeral: Understanding the Tyrant Behind the Propaganda
This week, the eyes of the world are on Iran, as the Islamic Republic lays to rest its former Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Foreign dignitaries, terrorist leaders, and anti-Western activists have all descended on the Middle Eastern country in order to attend the funeral and pay their respects to the former Ayatollah, who was killed during the opening strikes of the American and Israeli war against Iran on February 28, 2026.

The international media coverage is not lacking either, with all the major news outlets giving the funeral ample exposure, and even several foreign journalists reporting from inside Iran.

However, with all the news stories and analyses focused on the Ayatollah’s funeral, the media seems to be failing in providing basic context to their audiences. News outlets are choosing to present the funeral as a standard state ceremony for a departed leader, instead of a propaganda pageant for a tyrannical regime.

The Islamic Republic is not a standard regime and the Ayatollah was not a normal statesman. He was an authoritarian who firmly held the reins of power, subjugated his own people, and destabilized the Middle East.

In 1989, Khamenei assumed the highest office in the Islamic Republic of Iran, following the death of its founder, Ayatollah Khomeini. Upon his assumption of office, Khamenei became the guardian of the Islamic Republic’s ideology, the same ideology that had driven the replacement of the Persian monarchy with a theocratic state during the Iranian Revolution 10 years earlier.

This ideology, which continues to fuel the Islamic Republic to this day, is a unique blend of political Shia Islam, revolutionary Marxism, anti-imperialism, and anti-colonialism. According to this doctrine, the Islamic Republic is not merely a political regime but the vanguard of a crusade by the oppressed against their oppressors (i.e. the West) throughout the Middle East and the wider world. This ideology also does not view the Revolution as a historical event but an ongoing process, safeguarded by dedicated institutions like the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

Thus, within the worldview of this ideology, the Islamic Republic of Iran is responsible for spreading its “just” revolution to other countries and is constantly working to ensure that it is not corrupted by anti-revolutionary elements.

It is within this ideological system that Ayatollah Khamenei operated for more than 35 years.





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