Monday, March 23, 2026

03/23 Links Pt1: Suicide by Timidity; Trump negotiating potential deal with Iran; Cracks in Tehran's Regime Widen; Iran Lost the Arab Street

From Ian:

Suicide by Timidity
There is a particular kind of comfort in the phrase no imminent threat, a talking point that has gained prominence with the joint U.S.-Israeli military operation against Iran. For opponents of the operation, on the left and the right, the phrase serves as evidence that the rationale for attacking Iran is fraudulent. It functions both as a linguistic sedative—whispered by bureaucrats and pundits to assure a nervous public that the wolf is not yet at the door—and as an assertion that any military action at this time constitutes reckless and unnecessary warmongering. It is the language of “principled restraint,” a rhetorical shield used across the ideological spectrum, from the skepticism of Sens. Mark Warner and Elizabeth Warren to the isolationist critiques of Tucker Carlson and Rand Paul. But beneath the surface of this bipartisan consensus lies a profound psychological pathology.

By reducing the complexity of strategic judgment to a single, binary metric—Is an attack occurring right this second?—we have traded genuine security for a dangerous, and ultimately temporary, emotional relief.

In the realm of behavioral economics, this tendency is known as “present bias” or “hyperbolic discounting.” Humans are hardwired to undervalue future risks in favor of present comforts. For a modern populace, the “immediate reward” of social stability today—no sirens, no mobilization, no disruption of the daily routine—is so intoxicating that we are willing to accept the “delayed punishment” of an adversary completing a nuclear facility that renders future defense impossible. Avoiding military action delivers an instant hit of political relief, while the catastrophic risks of inaction remain deferred and abstract. We are, in effect, choosing a quiet today at the cost of a radioactive tomorrow.

This cognitive trap is reinforced by a legal doctrine that has failed to keep pace with the physics of modern slaughter. The traditional formulation for anticipatory self-defense emerged from the Caroline incident of 1837, when Canadian militia, under British authority, crossed into the United States and destroyed the Caroline, an American steamer that had been used by sympathetic Americans to supply Canadian rebels, nearly setting off a crisis between the United States and Great Britain. The legal theory, articulated in the diplomatic correspondence between U.S. Secretary of State Daniel Webster and British envoy to the U.S. Lord Ashburton, required a threat to be “instant, overwhelming, leaving no choice of means, and no moment for deliberation.” In the mid-19th century, when armies moved at the speed of a horse, and mobilization was a visible, weeks-long process involving steamships and infantry, this standard was a workable safeguard against adventurism.

But we no longer live in the world of the Caroline. Modern warfare has compressed the timeline of destruction into a digital pulse. Ballistic missiles, cyberwarfare, and nuclear enrichment programs have eliminated the visible “mobilization phase” of old. Today, an adversary can achieve a “breakthrough” that permanently alters the strategic balance before a single soldier crosses a border.

Legal scholars like Daniel Bethlehem have proposed a necessary evolution: Imminence must be assessed contextually. It must weigh the probability of an attack, the pattern of hostile conduct and, most critically, the “last window of opportunity” to act. As Mark L. Rockefeller has argued, equating imminent with immediate risks transforms the sacred right of self-defense into a “strategic suicide pact.” If we wait until the missile is airborne to satisfy a 19th-century definition of timing, we have already lost.
Israel Is America's Best Ally - We Must Reject the Evil of Antisemitism
The stunning and ominous rise in antisemitism in the U.S. cannot be disputed, but can be resisted. It is particularly the obligation of genuine Christians to participate in the repression through education of the ancient evil. It is the particular obligation of Christian institutions to do their part in making this sin once again an obvious source of shame and to help cure those who suffer from it and, where it cannot be cured, to force it back by shaming and shunning into the deepest shadows where it belongs.

In a dangerous world, even the dominant superpower - the U.S. - needs allies. Israel is, objectively, the most important ally of the U.S. It is the equal of any military on the globe in its ability to strike far and hard and to dominate its region. It's an intelligence superpower and an engine of technological excellence and ever-increasing breakthroughs. If any country had to pick one strong ally not named the U.S., it would pick Israel.

Israel is also a reliable and fully-integrated-into-our-military ally. Israel takes what the U.S. makes and improves on it, as had been the case with the F-35 fighter. It sometimes takes the rudiments of a technology and develops them to scale and deploys them, as with Iron Dome and soon Iron Beam. Those advancements will return to America as the Golden Dome and the Golden Beam.

Finally, and perhaps most importantly, Israel shares America's founding values of individual liberty and democratic governance. Freedom of speech is as robust there as it is here. Human rights are respected there as they are here. It is a "Western nation" in every respect.
Criticizing Israel in Wartime
According to a survey by the Institute for National Security Studies, 91% of Israeli Jews support the war against Iran, which most view as a battle for Israel's very right to exist. Israel's American critics say Iran does not present an imminent threat.

In practice, Iran's ballistic missile program was growing at a rapid rate and becoming an extreme threat to Israel, of which we are now getting an initial "taste." Iran was also building new nuclear facilities at Natanz and Isfahan and would eventually have unearthed the 400 kg. of highly enriched uranium, sufficient for the first 10 bombs.

Part of adulthood is the ability to put one's overall political preferences aside and assess specific issues on their merits. Trump and Netanyahu are doing an effective job of severely degrading a major threat to American security and an existential one to Israel's. On this they deserve our support and appreciation.

The critics have never had to cower in their shelters and safe rooms, grab their kids off the swings in a playground during an alert, or jump into a ditch on the highway. They rarely served in the IDF or sent their children to serve. They have never spent three or more years of sleepless nights, worrying whether their sons - and increasingly daughters - who serve in combat units are all right. Most American Jews have never lived in a country in which one is rarely out of sight of the nearest hostile border.

They have never had to live for decades in the face of existential threats and the knowledge that Israel's enemies would annihilate its civilian population if ever given the opportunity, as proven so tragically on Oct. 7. They have never had to live with continuous terrorism and repeatedly had to call the cell phones of loved ones to make sure they were okay after another barbarous attack.

If you care deeply about Israel and want to have a positive impact, support AIPAC. It may not be perfect, but it is the only pro-Israel lobby.


Iran's Top Officials Underestimated Mossad's Reach - and Paid the Price
Iran's security chief Ali Larijani believed he would be safe at his daughter's house, 12 miles outside Tehran. And then 20 one-ton bombs were dropped on him. Hours later, Gholamreza Soleimani, commander of the Basij paramilitary force, was tracked down to a combat tent in a wooded area on the outskirts of the capital with other Basij commanders.

Ali Younesi, Iran's intelligence minister from 2000-2005, said competing intelligence agencies focused on the surveillance of domestic critics and fighting each other for bureaucratic advantage, instead of working together against foreign agents.

The pattern of Israeli intelligence operations showed systematic infiltration that should have triggered comprehensive security reforms. But it did not.

During this war, it has been discovered that Israeli intelligence has accessed Tehran's traffic camera network, using the surveillance system meant to protect the capital to track the movements of targets through the city.

Iran has arrested hundreds on espionage charges and executed several, but officials acknowledge these actions are meant to "show that the system is still functioning" rather than addressing systematic infiltration.

Every additional day of war gives Israeli intelligence more time to target surviving officials, recruit additional sources, and establish the infrastructure for post-war operations.


Why Iran Is Far from Collapse
It is difficult to form definitive assessments in the midst of war. What is clear at this stage is that there is no indication the Iranian regime is nearing a breaking point or is prepared to make any concessions.

On the contrary, it now seems to be seeking to exploit the war as a strategic opportunity to reshape the regional order. Iran aims to establish regional arrangements based on recognition of its status and its capacity for harm.

There is no evidence of a loss of control by the security forces. Arrests and executions of civilians accused of espionage or collaboration with the regime's enemies have continued and even intensified.

The recent increase in launches from Iran indicates it is capable of continuing missile fire - at least at the current scale - for several more weeks.

Iran has identified the potential of the energy issue through its control of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on regional energy infrastructure. From Tehran's perspective, this is a strategic card that allows it to prolong the war until it secures guarantees that serve its interests.
Israel's U.S. Ambassador: Cracks in Tehran's Regime Widen
Israel's Ambassador to the U.S. Yechiel Leiter told Bloomberg on Sunday, "We have small units within the system of the IRGC and the Basij, which are not turning their weapons yet on their superiors, but they're not showing up for work. And that's a first. It's developing, and it's a process."

"The edifice of this tyrannical regime is cracking. It has not opened up to wide chasms yet, but that's the direction it's going." Leiter added that it wasn't just Iran's military capabilities that were being degraded, but also the morale of its armed forces.

"Look at the ICBM that was fired yesterday [at the Diego Garcia military base]. They claimed for years and years, 'we don't have an ICBM.' Well, they did. And the ICBM that can be fired at 4,000 km., you know, give them a little bit more time, and they're going to have an ICBM that's going to hit Chicago."
The Energy Panic Is Overblown for Now
Iran's clerical regime is now attempting to manipulate the regional energy picture to its advantage by threatening to shut down tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. News channels and social media platforms are now awash with commentary about the catastrophic effects that such disruptions might have on the world energy market.

But the actual picture is significantly less dire. In a recent analysis, Ariel Cohen of the Atlantic Council details that the high-water mark for oil prices in the past quarter-century came in 2008, when oil hit $147 per barrel - equivalent to roughly $223 per barrel in today's dollars. Current prices are nowhere near those levels.

Moreover, recent decades have seen regional producers like Saudi Arabia and the UAE erect workarounds to keep regional oil flowing in the event of a disruption of traffic through the Hormuz. In addition, other potent oil producers (like Nigeria and Azerbaijan) have the ability to surge capacity to the market, thereby helping offset losses from the Strait.
Trump: Jared Kushner, Steve Witkoff negotiating potential deal with Iran
President Donald Trump revealed on Monday that White House Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and advisor Jared Kushner have been negotiating with Iran amid the ongoing war, which played a role in Trump’s decision to delay by five days potential strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure in response to Iran’s threat to fully close the Strait of Hormuz.

“We have had very, very strong talks. We’ll see where they lead. We have major points of agreement, I would say almost all points of agreement. Perhaps that hasn’t been conveyed. The communication, as you know, has been blown to pieces. They were unable to talk to each other,” Trump told reporters from Palm Beach International Airport before boarding Air Force One.

“But we have had very strong talks,” Trump added. “Mr. Witkoff and Mr. Kushner had them. They went, I would say, perfectly. If they carry through with that, it’ll end that problem, that conflict, and I think it’ll end it very, very substantially.”

“We’re going to get together today, by probably phone because it’s very hard to find a country, it’s very hard for them to get out. But we’ll at some point very soon meet. We’re doing a five-day period. We’ll see how that goes,” Trump continued.

But the president kept the option of continued military action open: “If it goes well, we’re going to end up with settling this. Otherwise, we’ll just keep bombing our little hearts out,” he said.

Trump’s comments came hours after he announced that he was delaying his planned attacks on Iranian energy targets by five days based on the parties’ “very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East,” which he said will continue over the course of the week. The president announced the pivot about 12 hours before his 48-hour deadline to the Islamic Republic was set to expire.

Any future military action, Trump wrote, will be determined “subject to the success of the ongoing meetings and discussions.”


Iran’s hardline parliament speaker Mohammed Qalibaf enters spotlight amid reported US talks
Iran’s parliament speaker, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, is taking a more central role, as Israeli and US strikes pick off the Islamic Republic’s political leadership, making him a critical figure at a decisive moment.

An Israeli official and a source familiar with the matter said on Monday that Qalibaf had been negotiating on Iran’s behalf with the United States as the conflict has escalated, a sign of his growing role.

With fewer of Iran’s most prominent figures remaining, the former Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander, Tehran mayor, national police chief, and presidential candidate is now a key node between the political, security, and clerical elites.

Nearly three weeks after the sudden assault on Iran began with the killing of then-supreme leader Ali Khamenei, the leadership in Tehran is engaged in a bitter attritional effort to outlast its assailants.

Qalibaf, long seen as a protégé of Khamenei and a confidant of his son Mojtaba who has inherited the position of supreme leader, has been a leading voice of defiance against Israel and the United States, vowing revenge for their attacks.

Addressing US President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu after the killing of Khamenei, he promised “such devastating blows that you will be begging.”

“I say to these two dirty criminals and their agents: you have stepped on our red line, and you have to pay for it,” he declared in a television speech.

That fiery rhetoric reflects his longstanding position as a fierce disciple of the Islamic Republic’s theocratic system of government, a stance he has also demonstrated through helping to crush displays of internal dissent.

Yet despite that hardline, anti-reformist profile, and his direct role in brutally crushing anti-regime protests, Qalibaf has also built a reputation as a potential modernizer and pragmatist, posing during his 2005 presidential run in his uniform as a qualified pilot for campaign advertisements to bolster his image as a professional.

That stance may have helped position him as a useful candidate for backchannel talks with Washington as the conflict continued, though Iran’s Fars news agency has also reported that there have been no communications with the US.


Iran Lost the Arab Street
Most of the analysis surrounding Operation Epic Fury has concentrated on the battlefield. On the strikes, the damage assessments, the Iranian military’s capacity to absorb and respond. That focus is understandable. What has received far less attention is what the operation is failing to produce, and what it is failing to produce is the one asset the Islamic Republic has spent four decades treating as its ultimate strategic reserve: the Muslim and Arab street.

To appreciate the full weight of that failure, one must first understand what kind of state Iran is. The Islamic Republic was never a conventional government that occasionally dabbles in propaganda. Fundamentally a revolutionary regime, its entire institutional identity rests on the perpetual production of ideological energy, on the broadcasting of grievance, the choreography of rage, and the transformation of foreign policy into a continuous performance addressed simultaneously to domestic audiences and to the wider Muslim world.

Information warfare and psychological operations stand among the Iranian state’s primary functions. The clerical establishment has worked with considerable sophistication to shape how populations across the Muslim world understand American power, Israeli policy, and the obligations of Muslim solidarity.

As a matter of fact, the Islamic Republic wagered very early on a deceptively simple premise: the Muslim world can be reliably activated against American power and Israeli existence whenever Tehran needs cover, leverage, or time. Iran cultivated that resource through an estimated 700 million dollars in annual spending on satellite broadcasting across the Arab world, the financing of religious seminaries stretching across three continents, and the inflation of the Palestinian cause into an all-purpose mobilization myth. The Arab street, in this conception, serves as a permanent force in reserve, one that no Arab government can entirely ignore and that Washington must always price into its calculations.

Operation Epic Fury was always going to test that assumption and Tehran’s response was never conceived as purely military. It wanted images, wanted the streets of Cairo and Casablanca filled with crowds chanting for the resistance, wanted the spectacle of Muslim solidarity to flood Western television screens and force an American president to hesitate, to calculate the political cost of continuing, to flinch. Hitting Gulf targets was one lever. Triggering a civilizational parade was the other. Neither produces what Tehran needs.
Iran Is at the Center of Regional Instability, Not the Palestinians
In the Guardian last week, Nesrine Malik argued that everything now convulsing the Middle East flows from a single "original sin" - Israel and the plight of the Palestinians.

But this argument does not withstand even the most basic scrutiny. The organizing force at the center of regional instability is not the Palestinians. It never has been.

The inconvenient truth, for those who advance this view, is that the Islamic Republic of Iran, and the IRGC, are driving instability in the region and further afield.

It is their extremist revolutionary ideology, regional ambitions, and decades-long investment in building, funding and directing a network of proxies to project Iranian power, encircle, threaten and ultimately destroy the state of Israel, intimidate its neighbors, and challenge the West.

The Iranian regime has been engaged in the systematic repression and slaughter of its own people.

Tens of thousands of Iranians have been killed in brutal crackdowns, shot in the streets, arrested, tortured, mutilated, disappeared or executed. Victims' families are intimidated into silence.

These atrocities have nothing whatsoever to do with Gaza or the West Bank.

The same regime slaughtering its own people and denying them the most basic freedoms, pours vast resources into Hamas, Hizbullah, the Houthis, and every other proxy willing to take up arms against Israel.

When Iranians chant "Neither Gaza nor Lebanon, I sacrifice my life for Iran," they are rejecting the obsession with the annihilation of Israel, and the cynical diversion of their country's wealth and future into wars that serve no one but the regime.
Adm. Brad Cooper: ‘Iran’s combat capability is in steady decline’
“Iran’s combat capability is on the steady decline as our offensive strikes ramp up,” U.S. Central Command chief Adm. Brad Cooper said in an operational update video on Saturday.

U.S. forces have struck “more than 8,000 military targets, including 130 Iranian vessels,” the admiral said, calling it “the greatest destruction of a navy in a three-week period since World War II.”

Cooper added that “We are destroying thousands of Iranian missiles, advanced attack drones and the entirety of the Iranian fleet.”

Two days ago, the U.S. Army carried out “the longest field artillery strike in the Army’s history,” using precision-guided missiles that hit Iranian military infrastructure, he continued.

The commander also addressed the Strait of Hormuz, saying that earlier this week, U.S. forces dropped “multiple 5,000-pound bombs” on a fortified underground facility along Iran’s coast where the regime had stored “anti-ship cruise missiles, mobile missile launchers and additional equipment.”

According to Cooper, the strike also destroyed “intelligence support sites and radar relay stations used to track ship movements.” He added that “Iran’s ability to threaten freedom of navigation around the Strait of Hormuz has been severely degraded, and we will not stop pursuing these targets.”

Cooper said the U.S. had built “the most extensive air-defense umbrella ever established in the Middle East.” According to him, Gulf partners had defended against “thousands of Iranian drone attacks,” which he said was “clear evidence of the resilience of our partnerships as we operate shoulder to shoulder.”


Missile Interceptions and Falling Debris Are Striking Cities across Jordan
Iran fired 240 missiles and drones at Jordan in three weeks of war, the Jordanian military said Saturday.

The Royal Jordanian Air Force shot down 222. Eighteen got through. On the ground, civil defense teams logged 414 debris incidents across the kingdom.

Jordan's armed forces spokesman, Brig.-Gen. Mustafa al-Hayyari, rejected suggestions that Iranian projectiles were merely transiting Jordanian airspace on their way to Israel. The missiles and drones targeted Jordanian sites, he said, "vital installations inside Jordanian territory."


IDF kills senior Hamas moneyman in Lebanon
The Israel Defense Forces targeted and killed Walid Muhammad Dib, a senior Hamas operative responsible for financing terrorist operations in Lebanon, the military said on Sunday.

Dib was responsible for transferring funds to Palestinian terrorists in Judea and Samaria, Lebanon and “additional countries,” according to the military, which said he also recruited Hamas operatives and directed terrorist activity from Syria and Lebanon.

“His elimination adds to a series of strikes carried out against the funding sources of terrorist organizations since the beginning of ‘‘Operation Roaring Lion,’” the IDF added, referencing the operation against Iran, which Jerusalem launched in conjunction with the United States on Feb. 28.

“The IDF and Israel Security Agency [Shin Bet] will continue to operate with determination against the terrorist organizations in Lebanon, and will remove threats posed to the civilians of the State of Israel,” it said.

In response to Hezbollah’s violations of the U.S.-brokered Nov. 27, 2024, Israeli-Lebanon truce agreement, Jerusalem this month launched an aerial campaign and ordered ground troops to advance and take control of additional areas in Southern Lebanon to halt cross-border attacks by the Iranian-backed terrorist group and its allies.


Two injured as Hezbollah rocket hits Kiryat Shmona
A man around 50 years of age was seriously wounded when Hezbollah rocket fire from Lebanon struck the northern Israeli city of Kiryat Shmona on Monday afternoon, according to the Magen David Adom emergency medical service.

He was treated at the scene with shrapnel injuries to his face and was to be evacuated via MDA-RescueAir helicopter to Rambam Medical Center in Haifa, MDA said.

Another man in his 80s who suffered minor shrapnel wounds was taken by MDA ambulance to Ziv Medical Center in Safed.

MDA earlier said its medics and paramedics were dispatched to search areas where reports of impacts were received.

The Israel Police said that weapons components were found in the Upper Galilee on Monday, causing damage and injuring one person. Northern District officers, Border Police troops and bomb disposal experts were operating at the scene. Police urged the public to stay away from rocket impact areas, avoid touching debris and follow safety instructions.

Video circulating on social media appeared to show a city bus hit by rocket fire.


Commentary Podcast: Oil Shock, Missile Relief
FDD's Jonathan Schanzer joins us to discuss the prospect of an Iranian uprising, as well as negative media reports on the progress of the war after two major strikes on Israeli population centers and an American ultimatum to open the Strait of Hormuz. Plus, the current state of Iran's missile arsenal, and what potential steps can the U.S. take next?




Triggernometry: Why I Told President Trump to Attack Iran - Sen. Ted Cruz
00:00:00 – Trailer
00:01:06 – Ad: Hillsdale Course
00:01:14 – Early Life and Anti-Communism Roots
00:06:04 – Advising Trump on Iran Strategy
00:10:02 – Regime Change vs Military Objectives
00:15:07 – Ad: Quo
00:16:08 – Arming Protesters & Iraq Comparison
00:24:07 – Weakening Iran & Global Consequences
00:27:35 – Ad: Superpower
00:29:05 – Energy Crisis & Nuclear Threat Debate
00:38:58 – Israel, US Interests & Criticism
00;40;20 - Ad: BIOoptimizers
00:42:49 – Why I'm a 'Noninterventionist Hawk'
00:48:11 – Rising Anti-Israel Sentiment
00:53:26 – War Timeline & Political Risks
00:56:00 – Israel Intelligence & Military Value
01:00:12 – Ad: Sheath
01:01:36 – Cuba, Venezuela & Regime Collapse




‘Propaganda’: AFR publishes ‘odious’ cartoon of Netanyahu and Trump
The Australian Financial Review has published an "odious" cartoon depicting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu riding a missile with the face of President Donald Trump.

Cartoonist David Rowe’s latest illustration shows Mr Netanyahu conducting an oil check on the Trump-faced missile, with the caption reading: “Running on empty. Oil check.”

However the "oil" being drawn from the Trump missile, presumably powering the journey of the missile and its rider, is red - not a colour traditionally associated with oil.

A speech bubble pointing to the mouth of the US President reads: “Torah! Torah! Torah! Or whatever.”

Next to the Israeli Prime Minister, the words “oy vey” are written while in the bottom righthand corner a building is adorned with the words “Pearl Harbour 2026” in a subtle nod to President Trump’s recent Oval Office remarks.

AFR editor-in-chief James Chessell told Sky News host Sharri Markson he approved of the cartoon and found no issue with it.

“I'm supportive of the cartoon,” he said.

However, Executive Council of Australian Jewry co-CEO Alex Ryvchin called the cartoon “odious”, dissecting the “piece of propaganda” which appealed to “rusted on antisemites”.

“Trump’s critics have always cast him as wholly self-centred, isolationist and in contempt of traditional allies. Until now. Suddenly he has the blood-soaked Jew steering him, coercing him to do his bidding,” Mr Ryvchin wrote in a social media post.

“Chanting ‘Torah’ as the Jew leads him to disaster because the Jews are our misfortune. ‘Oy vey’, the Yiddish phrase of angst. Not Hebrew, the official language of Israel, but Yiddish, the language of exiled European Jews which mockingly adorns a million neo-Nazi tweets and cartoons.

“This isn’t clever or insightful. It plays for the cheap thrills of rusted on antisemites and haters of Israel, which are increasingly difficult to tell apart.

“Odious piece of propaganda from AFR’s David Rowe.”


'Plays into the ugliest antisemitic tropes': Sharri Markson reacts to AFR cartoon
Sky News host Sharri Markson reacts to a cartoon released by the Australian Financial Review.


Travis Hawley: I uncovered a coordinated foreign Information Operation here on X.



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"He's an Anti-Zionist Too!" cartoon book (December 2024)

PROTOCOLS: Exposing Modern Antisemitism (February 2022)

    
 

 



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