Friday, March 20, 2026

03/20 Links Pt1: The West should double down on the Iran war; That Was Before October 7; Guterres and the gutless United Nations; Iranian missile hits Jerusalem’s Old City

From Ian:

Seth Mandel: That Was Before October 7
For some reason, the world still hasn’t quite grasped how much has changed since that day, at least for Israelis. One reason is the terrifying “what if” that Israeli policymakers have had to ask themselves: What if Hezbollah had invaded along with Hamas on October 7, when Israel’s defenses were down and it had to fight to regain territory within its own borders?

What if Hamas’s control of the highway near the Gaza Envelope meant a Lebanese convoy could be on the scene within two hours? By many accounts, it took IDF units twice as long to reach Kibbutz Be’eri that day.

Even without the prospect of an actual Hezbollah ground invasion, consider: Hamas pushed Israel’s border residents into retreat, essentially moving the border itself for a brief period. Hezbollah periodically forces the same effect on residents of the north just by using rockets. And while both of those groups were working to herd Israelis into the center of the country, Iran was developing the capability to overwhelm Israeli air defenses with its ballistic-missile arsenal.

Each of those three threats must be neutralized. There cannot be a force in Gaza able to slaughter communities on the other side of the fence. There cannot be an arsenal in Lebanon that forces the evacuation of Israeli towns. And Iran cannot be allowed to retain or reacquire the means to make the country dwell in bomb shelters.

October 7 revealed what can never happen again. That’s why a yellow line divides Gaza. Lebanon is getting its own line, whatever color it ends up being designated.

New lines, new rules, new terms—all set by Israel. That’s how this works now.

The old rules put Israel’s enemies in a great position to strike at the Jewish state’s vulnerabilities. But, well, that was before October 7. They will not get a second shot at it.
Seth Mandel: The Media’s Attempt to Drive a Wedge Between the U.S. and Israel
Trump is indeed responsible for elevating Kent to his recently vacated position. But thankfully the administration very publicly vested exactly zero credibility in Kent. He was given a job with an important title, but he was not responsible for policymaking and his influence was nil. Kent is under FBI investigation, and he decided to leap before he was pushed.

So who is Kent influencing against Israel? Democrats don’t need his help, unfortunately, independents repeatedly rejected him as a candidate for office because of his ties to white nationalists, and Republicans back Trump in the war with Iran.

The third and final example is at least a point of legitimate debate: the question of whether the U.S. and Israel have contradictory war aims.

CNN uses the Israeli attack on Iran’s Pars gas field to frame this question. That attack was followed by an Iranian retaliatory strike on Qatar’s section of the gas field, sending energy prices up. Trump disavowed any knowledge or approval of the initial Israeli strike, but that is not remotely plausible. Nonetheless, it’s clear that Trump doesn’t want a repeat of that incident.

It’s also clear that Israel will respect the president’s wishes. Indeed, at yesterday’s press conference, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made this point explicitly. Trump, he said, is “the leader. I’m, you know, his ally. America is the leader. Israel is, as the national security memorandum described us … they called Israel the model ally. That’s how they call it, the model ally. It’s not a superpower.”

You can see the progression here of attempts by narrative-setters to degrade Israel’s credibility. First it was that Israel is joining Trump’s war, and Trump’s war doesn’t poll all that well. Then it was “Israel is responsible for this war.” But nobody believes that, and Trump has been happy to own this war; he sees it as a legacy-defining conflict. Then it was “Israel’s interests clash with U.S. interests.” But that, too, fails to ignite because Israel comes right out and says it’ll follow Trump’s lead on every aspect of the war. And now it’s “Israel’s reputation will continue to suffer if it sticks with this war.”

That has been the case since October 7, 2023. Israel has been forced to choose between survival and shallow, fleeting popularity with the president’s critics. Israel is not going to “fix” its unpopularity by committing suicide, and this type of concern trolling is ineffective against people fighting for their survival.
Spectator Editorial: The West should double down on the Iran war
The regime may yet be proven right. America’s Nato allies equivocate over efforts to restore freedom of navigation – a core interest of the West. The traumas of past interventions have encouraged formidable resistance within the US political establishment to deploying ground forces. European political leaders, including our Prime Minister, are courting short-term popularity by resisting what they see as Trump’s ‘adventurism’.

But what would the consequences be if this war was allowed to end with the Iranian regime still in place? Our allies in the Gulf – from Oman to the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia – would be left to reflect on our inconstancy. They would be left, too, with a wounded and resentful Iran, plotting its revenge. Tehran would have renewed incentive to fund terrorist proxies and nuclear missile technology, the better to deter and overawe its neighbours. Russia and China would feel confirmed in their view that a weakened West has neither the strength nor the stamina to resist their own adventurism. Iran’s people would see the democracy they dreamt of vanish beyond the horizon, and those who had been anything other than fierce in their loyalty to the regime would be crushed underfoot.

What of the West? Those celebrating such an outcome would be the ‘post-colonial’ left, who would rejoice in an epochal reversal of American power, and the ethno-nationalist right, who rage against Israel, Jewish influence and ‘the Epstein class’ which, as they see it, dragged us into a costly and counter-productive debacle. These are the forces within western society that disdain western civilisation itself – liberal, open, capitalist, creative, Judeo-Christian and confident. These people would feel emboldened in their drive towards identitarianism, division and communal enmity.

Victory in Iran, by contrast, would give that country the chance to show the world what a free, successful, post-Islamist but majority-Muslim society could achieve. It would liberate the talents, voices, and consciences of millions. It would undergird the stability and prosperity of Gulf powers and their orientation towards the West, with the leadership of nations such as the UAE in the vanguard. It would liberate Israel from existential threat and enable both an accommodation with its Palestinian neighbours and western support to that end. It would re-affirm the ability of the West to secure its strategic goals through united deployment of military strength and thus bolster the defence of Ukraine and the security of Taiwan. It would place control of oil and gas in the hands of western allies to counter the huge economic advantages that China has built up.

Victory is far from easy or assured. It will require a commitment of time, troops and patience that has so far not been articulated. But if that commitment is not made then the price will be far higher than what we might endure in the weeks ahead. We can either finish the job in Iran, or it will finish us.


America and Israel have discarded the containment doctrine
Under his watch, former President Joe Biden sought to revive the JCPOA in an effort to continue the containment policy of his former boss. The Tehran regime refused to negotiate and proceeded to increase the enrichment of uranium to levels that would enable the country to produce an atomic bomb.

In the meantime, Netanyahu also followed the containment doctrine. He and top Israeli military leaders believed that Hamas could be deterred. In all previous skirmishes with Hamas in Gaza (2008-2009, 2012, 2014), Israel sought limited operations, essentially seeking quiet along the border. Rather than taking decisive action to eliminate the Hamas threat, once and for all, they opted for containment. The limited responses did not deter Hamas from seeking a permanent war and the destruction of Israel.

“Operation Cast Lead” (2008-09) lasted three weeks. Israel withdrew its forces and left Hamas, with little damage to their infrastructure, in a position to provoke the next war.

“Operation Pillar of Defense” (Nov. 14-21, 2012) was an eight-day Israeli military campaign in the Strip targeting Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad leadership, initiated as a response to intense rocket fire. Key actions included the killing of Hamas military chief Ahmed Jabari and significant damage to rocket launchers. The operation ended with an Egypt/U.S.-brokered ceasefire.

“Operation Protective Edge” was a 50-day military operation launched by Israel against Hamas from July 8 to Aug. 26, 2014, aimed at stopping rocket fire and destroying cross-border infiltration tunnels.

In May 2023, Israel responded to rockets from the Palestinian Islamic Jihad by launching “Operation Shield and Arrow.” Significantly, Hamas was not actively involved, giving Israel the impression that Hamas was deterred.

Oct. 7 changed Jerusalem’s strategic thinking: No more opting for temporary “quiet time” to give Israelis a little respite. Instead, the new policy called for direct and decisive action in dealing with Iran and its terror proxies, including Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis. This time, Israel will not stop until it achieves the elimination of the existential threat to its people.

Unlike his predecessors, Trump no longer believes in containment; instead, he is engaged in peacemaking to solve global conflicts. However, when Iran refused to negotiate a stricter nuclear deal, eliminate its lethal rockets and stop producing long-range rockets with potential nuclear payloads while continuing its engagement in worldwide terror, Washington took decisive action to destroy Iran’s ability to pose an existential threat to the United States and its allies.

China and Russia are now facing a strong U.S. president who fortified America’s defense budget and is willing to exercise power on the global stage. The administration is acting with confidence that sends strong signals to its adversaries: Do not provoke Trump’s America.


Saudi Arabia reserves right to take military action against Iran, foreign minister says
Saudi Arabia has not ruled out military action in response to repeated missile and drone attacks from Iran, Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan said on Thursday.

Speaking to reporters following a meeting in Riyadh of foreign ministers from the region, Prince Faisal said that Iran “tries to pressure its neighbors” with attacks.

“The kingdom is not going to succumb to pressure, and on the contrary, this pressure will backfire… and certainly, as we have stated quite clearly, we have reserved the right to take military actions if deemed necessary,” he said.

Saudi Arabia reported more Iranian attacks on Wednesday, as the foreign minister hosted his counterparts from about a dozen Arab and Islamic countries for talks on the fallout from the Middle East war.

Several strong blasts were heard in the Saudi capital on Wednesday, while the defense ministry said it had intercepted ballistic missiles.

“The targeting of Riyadh while a number of diplomats are meeting… I think that’s the clearest signal of how Iran feels about diplomacy,” Prince Faisal said. “It doesn’t believe in talking to its neighbors.”

The Saudi foreign minister condemned the repeated “targeting of civilian sites” across the Gulf, dismissing Iran’s justification that it was targeting US interests in the region as “weak.”

“Neither Saudi Arabia nor the Gulf states would accept… blackmail, and escalation will be met with escalation,” he said.
Iranian Official Threatens Attacks on 'Parks, Recreational Areas, and Tourist Destinations' Worldwide
An Iranian military leader on Friday threatened to attack "parks, recreational areas, and tourist destinations" around the world in response to the ongoing campaign against the Islamic Republic, the Associated Press reported.

Iran's military spokesman, Gen. Abolfazl Shekarchi, said the hardline regime views these public places as legitimate theaters.

"From now on, based on the information we have about you, even parks, recreational areas, and tourist destinations anywhere in the world will no longer be safe for you," Shekarchi said, warning that the regime could expand the conflict far beyond the Middle East.

The Islamic Republic has already spread the fighting across the region, striking numerous Gulf states. The United Arab Emirates has been the regime's main target, with Tehran firing more than 2,000 drones and missiles at the country since February 28. More than 80 percent of those strikes have targeted civilian infrastructure.

Shekarchi's threat comes as U.S. authorities remain on high alert for the possibility of domestic terror attacks, whether orchestrated by the regime or carried out by lone-wolf sympathizers. The United States has faced several such attacks since Operation Epic Fury began, most recently when a terrorist gunman drove a truck full of explosives into a synagogue in West Bloomfield, Mich., last week. That gunman, Ayman Mohamad Ghazali, was the brother of a Hezbollah commander, according to the Israel Defense Forces.


Guterres and the gutless United Nations
"Why do Israelis so often criticize the UN?” is a question I hear a lot.

The answer can be found by reversing the words: The UN bashes Israel literally as a matter of routine. It is mandated to discuss Israel’s perceived faults and wrongdoings every three months in the Security Council, three times a year in the Human Rights Council, and finishes every year with a round of condemnations in the General Assembly.

In short, Israel is never far from the UN spotlight as the “bad guys,” while an entire department is dedicated to promoting the Palestinian narrative.

Indeed, on February 3, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres addressed the 2026 opening session of the “Committee for The Exercise of the Inalienable Rights of the Palestinian People.” After listing grievances against Israel, he declared: “In Gaza, Palestinians continue to endure grave suffering,” as if Israelis don’t suffer from war and terrorism.

Guterres spouted his usual mantras: “The work of this committee reminds the world that we must never lose sight of the core objective: resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The occupation must end, as affirmed by the International Court of Justice. The inalienable rights of the Palestinian people must be realized. International law must be respected, and accountability ensured. The unity, contiguity, and integrity of the Occupied Palestinian Territory must be preserved.”

The path to “a just, lasting peace between Palestinians and Israelis,” according to Guterres, lies solely in the “two-state solution… A solution with Israel and a fully independent, democratic, contiguous, viable, and sovereign Palestinian state, of which Gaza is an integral part – living side by side in peace and security within secure and recognized borders, on the basis of the pre-1967 lines, with Jerusalem as the capital of both states.”

The fact that the Palestinians in Gaza and Judea and Samaria (“Occupied Palestinian Territory,” in UN terminology) don’t have peace even among themselves – and are not demanding to live in security alongside Israel, but to destroy it – did not faze him.


Iran fires ballistic missiles at US-UK Diego Garcia military base, does not hit it — report
Iran fired two intermediate-range ballistic missiles at Diego Garcia but did not hit the US-U.K. military base in the Indian Ocean, the Wall Street Journal reports, citing multiple US officials.

One of the missiles failed in flight, while a US warship fired an SM-3 interceptor at the other, although it could not be determined if the interception succeeded, the newspaper says. The Journal does not specify when the missiles were fired.

The White House and the British embassy in Washington and the UK’s Defence Ministry do not immediately respond to Reuters requests for comment.

Iran’s attempt to hit the base, around 4,000 kilometers from the country’s territory, indicates that the Islamic Republic’s missiles have a longer range than it has previously acknowledged.

Iran’s targeting of Diego Garcia, some 4,000 kilometers from Iran, indicates its missiles have a greater range than Tehran has previously acknowledged, the Journal points out. It notes that Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi claimed last month that Iran has limited the range of its missiles to 2,000 kilometers.


Fragment from downed Iranian missile impacts in Jerusalem’s Old City; Rehovot homes damaged
Iran fired nine salvos of ballistic missiles at Israel from early Friday morning into the night, at least three of which appeared to carry cluster bomb warheads, damaging houses and lightly wounding some residents, as Israel named several Iranian officials it killed in recent days.

Fragments from one intercepted missile impacted in Jerusalem’s Old City, causing damage to a parking lot in the Jewish Quarter — around 400 meters from the Western Wall and Al-Aqsa Mosque compound on the Temple Mount.

No injuries were reported.

Israel Police officers soon after inspected a public playground, just below the site where debris from the intercepted Iranian missile careened onto the walled city’s southern flank, for further fragments.

The impact was just above Dung Gate, one of seven functional entrances into the Old City, and came shortly before the start of Shabbat, disrupting residents’ preparations with a loud bang.

After the hit, soldiers moved away crowds of Orthodox children craning their necks to see the damage. Up a limestone passageway, an Armenian man quietly swept up shards of glass blown out from his window.


Cops forcefully clear Eid prayers outside Jerusalem’s Old City amid Iran war closure
Hundreds of Muslim worshipers clashed with police while holding Eid al-Fitr prayers at the gates of Jerusalem’s Old City on Friday, as the Al-Aqsa Mosque, Western Wall and other holy sites remain closed amid the war with Iran.

A few hours later, a fragment from an intercepted Iranian ballistic missile struck some 400 meters from the Western Wall and Al-Aqsa Mosque compound on the Temple Mount, causing damage at a parking lot in the Old City’s Jewish Quarter but no injuries.

Since the start of the US-Israel war against Iran on February 28, Israeli authorities have, for security reasons, barred access to the Old City for anyone other than residents or shop owners. The restrictions extend to all holy sites, including the Western Wall, Al-Aqsa Mosque and Church of the Holy Sepulchre, which have been closed since March 6. Gatherings nationwide remain limited to 100 people indoors and 50 people outdoors, provided a shelter can be reached in time.

For Eid al-Fitr, which marks the end of Ramadan, Muslim worshipers denied access to the Old City arrived with prayer mats under their arms at dawn on Friday under the watchful supervision of Israeli police.

Shouting “Allahu akbar” (“God is the greatest”) or chanting the shahada (the Muslim declaration of faith), the crowd tried to push through the city gates.

Police forcefully dispersed hundreds of worshipers, with footage showing officers using tear gas and batons against the crowd of Palestinians, running after individuals who gathered to pray outside Herod’s Gate.

At least one individual was arrested, Haaretz reported.
IDF kills Iran's Basij Force intelligence chief in Tehran strike
The IDF killed the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Basij militia's intelligence chief, Esmail Ahmadi, in a strike in central Tehran, the military announced on Friday.

Ahmadi was killed in the strikes that targeted other senior Basij militia members, including commander Gholamreza Soleimani and his deputy Seyyed Karishi, earlier this week.

The IDF announcement followed a series of Israeli strikes targeting the Iranian regime's infrastructure across Tehran during the early morning hours on Friday.

IRGC spokesperson Ali Mohammad Naini was later confirmed killed in the strikes.

Naini, who also served as the IRGC's Public Relations Array chief, held several propaganda and public relations roles and served as the group's "main propagandist" for the past two years, the IDF stated.

"In his role, Naini disseminated the regime's terrorist propaganda to its proxies across the Middle East in order to influence and advance terror attacks against the State of Israel from the different fronts," the IDF stated. "Naini’s elimination joins a series of eliminations of dozens of senior figures of the Iranian regime during the operation."


Hamas given proposal for gradual weapon handover in months-long process — officials
The disarmament proposal presented to Hamas by Gaza ceasefire mediators this week in Cairo envisions all armed groups in the Strip gradually handing over their weapons over the coming months, two Arab diplomats familiar with the matter told The Times of Israel on Friday.

The proposal requires Hamas to — within 90 days — hand over its heavy weaponry, such as missiles and rocket launchers, in addition to maps of its tunnel network.

A buy-back program would also offer jobs and funds to armed group members who agree to hand over their personal weapons, though, that process is expected to take longer than the initial three-month timeline given for heavy weaponry, the first Arab diplomat said.

While Hamas negotiators have expressed willingness in talks with Arab mediators to hand over the terror group’s heavy weapons, they have insisted on maintaining lighter weapons, arguing that they are necessary for self-defense, the Arab diplomat added.

Details of the disarmament proposal were first published by the National Public Radio, The New York Times, and Haaretz.

The proposal envisions the weapons being handed over to the yet-to-be-formed Palestinian police. The National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG), which is supposed to replace Hamas in governing Gaza, began recruitment for the new police force last month.

Palestinians who previously served as Hamas civil servants have been allowed to apply to the new police force, but they will have to undergo Israeli vetting in order to be approved, the first Arab diplomat said, adding that those who Israel says were involved in Hamas’s October 7 onslaught may not be granted immunity.

The weapon handover will take place geographically, beginning with southern Gaza, and will see the Palestinian police and the International Stabilization Force phase out the IDF in areas from which weapons have been cleared, the Arab diplomat said.


Iron Dome reservist soldier indicted for spying for Iran
The police and Shin Bet announced on Friday that an IDF reservist serving in the Iron Dome air defense system was recently arrested and indicted on charges of spying for Iran.

A joint investigation by the police’s Unit for International Crime Investigations and the Shin Bet found that the reservist, 26-year old Raz Cohen from Jerusalem, was in contact with Iranian intelligence agents for about a month, and provided information about Iron Dome and other military sites to his handler during that time.

These included passing sensitive security information to the Iranian agent during December 2025, including details about how Iron Dome works, locations of Israeli Air Force bases, and the locations of Iron Dome batteries.

The indictment, served to the Jerusalem District Court on March 18, makes clear that Cohen was fully aware he was working with an Iranian agents.

He received the equivalent of $1,000 in cryptocurrency in return for the information he passed to his handler, before he cut off contact with him in February this year.

Cohen has been charged with assisting the enemy during a war, transmitting information to the enemy with the intent to harm state security, and transmitting information to the enemy which is likely to assist the enemy.


The Times of Israel: Caroline Glick: Why we went back to war in Iran
Welcome to The Times of Israel's Lazar Focus. Each Friday, join host diplomatic correspondent Lazar Berman for a deep dive into what's behind the news that spins the globe.

Almost three weeks of the US-Israeli war on Iran have gone by. There are undoubtedly important achievements. This week, Israel assassinated Ali Larijani, perhaps the most important leader left in the Islamic Republic. It also took out leaders of the brutal Basij force, and there is no question that Iran's ability to launch ballistic missiles and drones at its enemies has been severely degraded.

Top officials in Gulf states are speaking out more openly about Iranian attacks, with a senior UAE adviser saying that the strikes will push the Gulf closer to Israel.

Despite the impressive -- even unprecedented tactical achievements -- key questions remain. How does this war end? How will Israel "create the conditions" for Iran's people to topple the regime, and will we be back at war again in the coming years if they don't?

Caroline Glick, a veteran journalist who has served as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's international affairs adviser during both Iran wars, lays out why Israel is fighting against Iran less than a year after Netanyahu declared that the 12-day war last June achieved a historic victory.

She says that Netanyahu and US President Donald Trump are aligned on the goals on the campaign, and reports of discord do not reflect reality.

Glick makes clear that it is up to the Iranian people to achieve their freedom, but Israel is doing what it can to pave the way from the air.


Ben Shapiro: Most Of Our Allies Are Freeloaders. Here's Why.
America's international allies join our cause… by writing a strongly worded letter; the America-hating right and Left unite to undermine President Trump yet again; and California is spending all of its money on hospice fraud and mountain lion bridges.


Commentary Podcast: Boered to Death
Contributing editor Eli Lake joins us on this Friday to discuss the media's emerging quagmire narrative a mere 20 days into the war with Iran and what an American victory will look like, and how the attempts to mollify Iran in the past have led to the current unlikely regional coalition. Plus, how the Middle East conflict impacts the Indo-Pacific region and the Ukraine war.




Ryan McBeth: Why Iran's Shadow Militias Are More Dangerous Than Its Army
Who are the groups attacking Israel, targeting U.S. bases, and disrupting global shipping, and what does Iran have to do with all of it?

In this video, I break down Iran’s network of proxy militias: who they are, how they operate, and why Tehran relies on them instead of conventional military force.

We’re going to look at groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and the various Shia militias operating inside Iraq. These aren’t random actors. They are part of a broader strategy that allows Iran to project power, create instability, and maintain plausible deniability—all without triggering a full-scale war.

I also dig into how Iran’s political system shapes this strategy, why proxy warfare is so effective in the “gray zone,” and why many countries in the region struggle to respond.

And yes, I’ll address the comparison everyone brings up: does the United States do the same thing? The answer is more complicated than you might think.

If you’ve ever wondered how Iran can influence events across the Middle East without directly fighting, this video will give you the framework to understand it.




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