Wednesday, March 04, 2026

03/04 Links Pt1: With Iran attacking the region, Israel has the chance to step out of the villain role; The US and Israel are fighting the same war — in opposite political realities

From Ian:

JPost Editorial: With Iran attacking the region, Israel has the chance to step out of the villain role
While much of the Jewish world marked Purim yesterday, Jerusalem is celebrating it today. The reason rests within Jewish law and memory. In antiquity, Jerusalem was a walled city, so it observes Purim on Adar 15, a day later than most communities in what Jews call Shushan Purim (Purim in walled cities).

Per the Book of Esther, Jews in Persia’s capital, Shushan, fought one more day, thus celebrated one day later. Jerusalem keeps that tradition alive, as if the city insists on living within the tale’s original rhythm.

One phrase from Purim captures the holiday’s spirit better than any military briefing. It is the term v’nahafoch hu, which suggests that all on this day is the opposite, all on this day is flipped upside down.

In the megillah, the plot reverses: The threatened become the defenders, the confident become the anxious, and the power dynamics turn upside down. Jerusalem reads that line in the scroll today with costumes in the street and, this year, with a war in the background.

The war has already delivered its own v’nahafoch hu.
A War Too Logical to Explain By Abe Greenwald
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The amnesiacs are forgetting America’s case for war on Iran not because the regime’s crimes directly caused them trauma. They’re discarding it, rather, because what’s traumatic for them is to accept that Israel, the U.S., and Donald Trump are doing the right, moral, and necessary thing—after so many administrations allowed the threat to grow.

This problem, like most of our current maladies, manifests in different versions on the left and right. To many on the left, American action abroad is by definition criminal. So, too, are the existence of Israel and Trump’s exercise of presidential power. Only the enemies of the U.S. and the Jewish state are righteous in the use of deadly force.

A smaller contingent on the right shares the left’s hostility to Israel and sees any shared goals between it and the U.S. as the deceptive product of Jewish manipulation. Alliances in general are a zero-sum trap for an America that must always shoulder the burden. Indeed, these populist right-wingers have anathematized a whole range of concepts and terms that would otherwise explain Trump’s decision to strike. Preemptive war is immediately suspect and specifically unacceptable absent an imminent threat. American military intervention becomes morally tainted if a byproduct of its success is the protection or liberation of non-Americans. And regime change is the language of madmen and fools.

For years, Trump helped to promote these anti-historical attitudes. They now permeate different parts of MAGA to varying degrees. As a result, he and his administration are at a loss to explain what they clearly now understand: that strong alliances based on shared values are the guarantors of civilization, and that the U.S.-Israel alliance is the strongest of all; that it’s better to strike one’s enemies before they pose an imminent threat; that liberation from tyranny is a rare miracle that the United States alone can facilitate in foreign lands; and that, except in wars over land, regime change is the only way that wars end.

Administration figures have instead offered thin, sometimes contradictory, justifications for Operation Epic Fury. These attempts at assuaging right-wing skeptics only stoke the populist suspicion that they’re being lied to. And they are, only not in the way they think. Trump isn’t protecting the secret agenda of an all-powerful cabal. He’s hiding the fact that he took his base for a wild ride only to return to the boring but valuable realities of establishment statecraft.
Spoiled by Peace, Again By Abe Greenwald
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When the U.S. went to war with Iran, more Americans disapproved than approved of the decision. But two new polls, one by Fox News and the other by Politico, show the country is now split almost evenly on the question. The change isn’t surprising. American and Israeli forces have done an incredible job of targeting the regime and its weapons, and success is a sure path to popularity. But when support for a war hangs on day-to-day military fortunes, that war is only as popular as the latest developments.

If Americans were down on the war from the start, and if that’s their baseline attitude, I suspect it has a lot less to do with the logical reasons for skepticism that pundits cite and more to do with feelings toward Donald Trump and ideas about America’s general safety.

There are, of course, many Americans who are unable to support anything that Trump does. Given that the president’s popularity has taken a big hit over the past year, I doubt he’d have made much headway with the public regarding Iran even if he and his administration hadn’t offered a confusing account of its war aims and painted a very blurry portrait of victory.

But beyond the public’s feelings about Trump, there’s the matter of how Americans think about threats to the country. The fact is, it’s very hard for many of us to believe that foreign actors or countries pose a threat to the United States so great as to require military action.

There are multiple reasons for this. One is that a massive majority of living Americans have enjoyed some or all of what’s called the Long Peace—the period from the end of World War II to the present. When your life coincides with a stretch of history during which there has been no great-power conflict, you can begin to believe that’s the norm. And if your own country—the United States—is the chief cause and guarantor of that peace, you’re even more likely to believe in it.


The US and Israel are fighting the same war — in opposite political realities
Today, more than 20 years after it was launched, the US war in Iraq is widely viewed as a destructive debacle that achieved little. But that hindsight obscures the fact that, more than a year after it began, the war was still relatively popular in the United States.

When the US invaded in March 2003, close to 70% of Americans supported it, according to CBS. By September 2004, US forces were dying, the war was turning into a quagmire and, earlier in the year, US troops’ abuse of prisoners at Abu Ghraib had exposed the world to disturbing images of brutality.

Yet 18 months after the invasion, 54% of Americans still said the US did the right thing by going to war in Iraq. Two months later, then-US President George W. Bush won reelection.

Not so the current war with Iran. Polls show that the decision to launch airstrikes on the Islamic Republic is deeply unpopular in the United States, with just a quarter of the country supporting it. Even among Republicans, who generally back US President Donald Trump’s policies, the figure is a tepid 55%.

Add on that Trump hasn’t presented a clear rationale for the war, or outlined what would constitute success, or defined how long it might last, or said definitively whether American ground troops will get involved, or executed a plan to evacuate Americans from the region. All in all, it’s hard to imagine the war gaining popularity in the US or putting Trump in a stronger position to govern for the rest of his term.

The picture in Israel could hardly be more different.

Surveys in Israel have found that north of 80% Israelis support this war. One poll said that even among opposition voters who are generally vehement critics of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, approval for the war was at 77%. Majorities report trust in the security establishment, say they understand the goals of the war, and say it should continue until the regime is overthrown.

Try to find another major issue in Israel that polls this well, I dare you. That’s apparent anecdotally, as Israelis seem prepared, if not eager, to disrupt their routine and shuttle back and forth between home and bomb shelter.


'I've Waited 30 Years': American Families of Iranian Terror Victims See Justice Served in US-Israeli Campaign
Families of the victims of the 1996 Khobar Towers bombing organized by Iran and carried out by an Iranian proxy, as well as a survivor of the attack, see the U.S.-Israeli campaign against the Islamic Republic as justice belatedly being served, they told the Washington Free Beacon.

"I'm so emotional, because watching this Iran thing unfold is so different for me," said Dawn Woody, whose husband Joshua was killed in the attack. "I've waited 30 years to watch the leaders finally be held accountable for what they did. No other president has ever held them accountable."

Dawn and Joshua Woody had only been married a few months when the airman first class deployed to Saudi Arabia with the Air Force to provide support services to Operation Southern Watch in the aftermath of the Gulf War. He and the other airmen stationed in Saudi Arabia were living in the Khobar Towers, where Iran targeted them in its proxy's attack.

"His specific job was a 'weapons jammer,'" Dawn Woody recalled. "He basically loaded the bombs on F-15s. He was so proud of what he was doing and would have been a career military man. That was the plan, anyway."

A day before Joshua Woody was set to return home, a truck bomb exploded at the Khobar Towers complex, killing him, 18 other Americans, and wounding nearly 500 more people. The U.S. government eventually announced that Hezbollah Al-Hejaz, an Iranian proxy then operating in Saudi Arabia, was responsible. By 2006, a federal judge ruled that the Islamic Republic itself was directly involved in the planning and execution of the attack.

Dawn Woody spent a decade in the Secret Service, a role that at times gave her an up-close view of how presidents handled Tehran.

"I worked when Obama sent, literally, a pallet full of cash back to Iran," Woody told the Free Beacon, referencing the infamous payments that comprised part of former president Barack Obama's Iran deal. "[It was] a hard day for me, knowing that they were giving money back to the people that murdered my husband."

The Islamic Republic's continued attacks against U.S. service members—often carried out through its various proxy groups in the Middle East—were one reason President Donald Trump gave for his decision to launch the ongoing operation against Iran.
Senate votes down Iran war powers resolution 53-47
The Senate voted down a measure from Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) on Tuesday that would have directed U.S. President Donald Trump to withdraw American forces from hostilities against Iran.

Kaine’s motion to discharge his war powers resolution was defeated by a vote of 53-47, mostly along party lines. Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) was the lone Democrat to vote against the measure. Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) was the only Republican in favor.

Many Democrats have described the combat operations against Iran as illegal and have hammered Trump for failing to seek congressional authorization. Some Democrats have said that the Iranian regime ought to be removed, but that the president still needs to make his case before Congress.


IAF F-35 shoots down Iranian jet over Tehran
An Israeli Air Force F-35 “Adir” stealth fighter shot down an Iranian Air Force YAK-130 warplane over Tehran, the Israel Defense Forces said on Wednesday.

The incident marks the first time an F-35 “Adir” fighter jet has downed a manned aircraft in combat, according to the IDF.

It was also reportedly the first Israeli air-to-air engagement with a manned enemy plane in more than 40 years. The last such encounter occurred in 1985, when Israeli F-15s shot down two Syrian MiG-23s over Lebanon.

The IDF published audio of a conversation between IAF Commander Maj. Gen. Tomer Bar and the pilot, in which Bar tells him that “the historic shootdown over the Tehran skies is a testament to the strength of the Israeli Air Force and to your personal determination,” adding that “the next mission is already awaiting you.”


US said to be in talks with Iranian Kurdish militias regarding direct action in Iran
The United States has reportedly entered discussions with Iranian Kurdish militias about the possibility of attacking the Ayatollah regime’s security forces , opening up the possibility that the US will use the region’s sectarianism to launch armed resistance inside Iranian territory itself.

As initially reported by CNN, the CIA has been in discussions with Kurdish militias in the semi-autonomous region of Iraqi Kurdistan. It is unclear at this point whether the United States has decided to work together with these groups to further destabilise the Iranian regime.

Kurds make up approximately 10% of the Iranian population, with half a dozen provinces in the northwestern region of the country containing either a majority or a sizeable minority from the distinct ethnic group.

Just weeks ago, however, the Trump administration signalled that despite a decade of US support for Kurdish fighters in Syria, America was now inclined to support both the Syrian and Turkish governments in their attempts to crush the Kurdish enclave in northeastern Syria. It is unknown whether this perceived betrayal will affect how Kurds elsewhere view US offers of aid and arms in return for launching an operation against the Iranian regime.


Turkey says Iran fired missile at its territory
Iran fired a missile at Turkey on Wednesday that crossed into Iraqi and Syrian airspace, and was intercepted en route by NATO defense systems, the Turkish defense ministry said.

“NATO air and missile-defense elements deployed in the Eastern Mediterranean” shot down the missile, per the official statement.

“Threats will be responded to wherever they come from,” the Turkish Ministry of Defense wrote in a statement about the incident.

No casualties or injuries were reported.

Turkey is a NATO member state and an ally of the United States. Iran reportedly has fired missiles and projectiles at Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Iraq, Jordan, Cyprus and Oman, as well as Israel, since Saturday’s launch of a major offensive against Iran by the United States and Israel.

“We are capable of ensuring the security of our land and our citizens, regardless of who or where it comes from. All necessary steps to defend our airspace will be taken decisively and without hesitation. We remind you that we reserve the right to respond to any hostile attitude towards our country,” the Turkish statement also said.


IDF orders evacuation of Southern Lebanon
The Israel Defense Forces on Wednesday ordered all civilians in Southern Lebanon to evacuate and move north of the Litani River.

“The activities of the Hezbollah terrorist organization are forcing the Israel Defense Forces to act against it with force. The IDF does not intend to harm you,” said Avichay Adraee, head of the Arab Media Branch in the IDF Spokesperson’s Unit, in a notice posted to X.

Adraee emphasized that any Lebanese civilians “near Hezbollah members, facilities or combat equipment are putting their lives at risk.”

“Any home used by Hezbollah for military purposes may be subject to targeting,” he said. “Any movement southward may endanger your life.”
Historic Tel Aviv Bauhaus building damaged by Iran missile explosion
The Iranian rocket strike that killed Filipina caregiver Mary Anne Velasquez de Vera and injured over two dozen others on Saturday night as it destroyed an entire apartment building also devastated the historic building next door, one of the White City in Tel Aviv’s architectural treasures.

“No one can live there right now,” said architect Alon Bin Nun, whose firm handled the apartment building’s restoration more than ten years ago. “All the windows are broken; it’s uninhabitable for the moment.”

Bin Nun said someone sent him a message on Saturday night saying the rocket struck the block on which the building is located.

“I saw it on TV and could immediately identify it,” said Bin Nun.

The downstairs cafe, Grasyani House, a beloved neighborhood bakery and coffee spot, was also destroyed in the blast.

The Home Front Command determined that a complete Iranian ballistic missile — not fragments — impacted next to the apartment building, causing extensive damage and a large crater. The missile carried a warhead of several hundred kilograms, the Home Front Command assessed.

The building was relatively old, without its own safe rooms. Most residents had evacuated to a nearby public bomb shelter, according to the Home Front Command.

The historic building next door was a familiar landmark in the neighborhood, noted for the two external staircases with rounded walls and the busy ground-floor cafe.


Vast majority of Israelis support the war against Iran, polls find
More than 80% of Israelis support the war against Iran, polls by two major Israeli research institutions found this week, while Americans were evenly split, according to a new Fox News poll.

The Israel Democracy Institute found that 82% of Israelis — 93% of Jewish Israelis and 26% of Israeli Arabs — support the war with Iran.

Among Jewish Israelis, the war has strong support across the political spectrum, with 76% of respondents on the left backing it, 93% of voters from the center and 97% from the right.

Similarly, the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University found that 81% of Israelis back the war against Iran, and 63% support continuing military efforts until the Iranian regime falls.

Among Jewish Israelis, support for the war was at 92%, while only 38% of Israeli Arabs support it. About half (49%) of Israeli Arabs oppose the war, while the rest said they did not know.

The Fox News poll found that exactly half of Americans support the current U.S. action against Iran, while half disapprove, with Republicans overwhelmingly supportive and Democrats overwhelmingly against. Most American respondents (61%) saw Iran as a “real national security threat,” and only 38% did not.

Three-fourths (74%) of Jewish Israelis said they supported continuing the war until the Iranian regime is overthrown, while only 18% of Israeli Arabs agreed; 61% of Israeli Arabs called for a ceasefire as soon as possible, while only 3% of Jewish Israelis chose that as their preferred option.

Over a third of respondents (37%) to the INSS poll said that Israelis would be able to live under the current war situation for up to a month, while 29% said they could continue for over a month.


Why the U.S. ACTUALLY Went to War with Iran
On Saturday, the United States and Israel launched a joint attack on Iran, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and at least 40 Iranian leaders. Iran is now retaliating against American allies and military assets in a counteroffensive that has killed at least six American service members.

In the days since, social media has filled with a single narrative: Israel dragged the United States into a misbegotten war to serve Israeli interests. But Free Press Middle East analyst Haviv Rettig Gur sees it differently. “For years, Iran has funded terrorism, harassed global shipping, threatened America’s allies, and kept the Middle East expensive and unstable,” he wrote in The Free Press.

But that’s not all. According to Gur, this war is also about China.

Here’s what he means: About 90 percent of Iran’s oil exports go to China, helping Beijing build large oil reserves that could keep its economy running during a naval blockade. China, Russia, and Iran have also held joint naval exercises in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important oil choke points. And Iran’s navy, missile sites, and coastal bases could threaten American ships and global shipping lanes in the event of a wider conflict.

In Gur’s view, Iran functions, for China, as an energy supplier, a military outpost, a naval threat to U.S. forces, and a lever over global oil supplies. And in a conflict between the United States and China, Iran would be a critical partner for Beijing.

Haviv breaks down how Iran made itself China’s most important ally in the Middle East, how the two countries have become economically and strategically intertwined, why that is so dangerous for the United States, and why—at its core—this isn’t only Israel’s war. It’s America’s.




If This Is Illegal, International Law Has Failed
Politicians and pundits around the world are claiming that U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran violate international law, but what if that narrative completely misunderstands how the law of armed conflict actually works? In this episode of Basic Law, Aylana Meisel is joined by Natasha Hausdorff, barrister and legal director of 'UK Lawyers for Israel' to break down the difference between jus ad bellum and jus in bello, the legal meaning of “imminent threats,” and why much of the international commentary may be misapplying the rules that govern war. Cutting through political rhetoric and legal buzzwords, this episode explains how context, ongoing conflict, and self-defense shape the legal framework behind modern military strikes—and why misinterpreting international law can ultimately undermine its credibility.


Call me Back: Did Israel force America into war with Iran? - with Nadav Eyal and Mark Dubowitz
Was America dragged into the Iran war by Israel, as some commentators seem to suggest?

An out-of-context statement by State Secretary Marco Rubio seems to give credence to the conspiratorial accusation that America is fighting Israel's war in Iran. Dan is joined by Nadav Eyal and Mark Dubowitz to discuss the truth behind these claims, the delicate politics behind the decision to launch the war, and how it all plays out in American public discourse. They also cover the possible succession of Iran’s Supreme Leader, the campaign against Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities, and the broader strategy shaping the conflict—along with what outcomes Israel and the U.S. would ultimately consider a victory.

In this episode:
04:20 – The strike in Qom and the disruption of Iran’s leadership succession
06:05 – The possible rise of Mojtaba Khamenei
11:05 – What the past 72 hours reveal about the military campaign
13:25 – Why Qom is central to the Islamic Republic
15:05 – The emerging strategy to pressure the regime from within
20:05 – The debate in the U.S. over how the war began
37:35 – Iran’s strategy for surviving the conflict
40:05 – What Israel and the U.S. would consider a victory




Ben Shapiro: We Are Winning
As Iran takes heavy body blows from the US-Israeli combined operation, Iran tries to activate its American friends; we discuss just why the US went active against Iran now; and we talk about whether America is safer.


After classified briefing, senators reject claims Israel forced U.S. into Iran war
Following a classified briefing on Tuesday, Senate Republicans strongly rejected claims that Israel had effectively forced the U.S.’ hand into war with Iran or dictated the timeline of the conflict, claims that were fueled by comments on Monday by Secretary of State Marco Rubio and top lawmakers who were briefed on the Trump administration’s plans.

Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL) told Jewish Insider he had been in touch with the administration since the war began, and that no one in the administration had told him that Israel had triggered the U.S. to act.

“Anybody that thinks they’re going to get President Trump to do anything — talk to anybody that’s done business with him for his entire business career,” Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-OK) told JI, calling the idea that Israel had forced Trump’s hand “a joke.”

Sen. John Hoeven (R-ND) added, ”We work very closely with our ally Israel for maximum effect to take out Iran’s capabilities when they are the weakest so we minimize the risk to our military and civilians in the region.”

Democrats also distanced themselves from the narrative that emerged on Monday.

Asked whether Israel had prompted the start of hostilities, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), who was also briefed on Monday, told JI, “No one wants an endless war, but we certainly don’t want a nuclear Iran, that’s for sure.”

Sen. Andy Kim (D-NJ) said that the responsibility for the operation “always falls squarely on President Trump. Regardless of what other countries are doing, he is the one that owns this.”

“Look, I certainly have my concerns about how this all unfolded, but I think it’s very important for the American people to know that this was still Donald Trump’s decision,” Kim continued.


Qatar reads Iran the riot act over ‘flagrant’ civilian attacks
Qatari Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani slammed his Iranian counterpart for “flagrant” violations of Qatar’s sovereignty on Wednesday in the first publicly revealed call between a Gulf Arab state and the Islamic Republic since the start of the recent conflict.

According to the Qatari readout of the discussion, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi claimed that Iran’s missile and drone strikes against Qatar were “directed at American interests and were not intended to target the Gulf state.”

Sheikh Mohammed, who is also the Qatari prime minister, “categorically rejected” that assertion, per the Qatari Foreign Ministry.

The Qatari foreign minister cited “the civilian and residential areas inside the country struck by the attacks,” including “the vicinity of Hamad International Airport, as well as vital infrastructure and industrial zones” and “facilities linked to liquefied natural gas production,” per the readout.

“He added that the attacks were not limited to missiles but were ongoing through drones, as well as aircraft that had entered Qatari airspace and were intercepted by the country’s armed forces,” the Qataris added.

“These Iranian actions reflected ‘an escalatory approach’ and did not indicate any genuine desire for de-escalation or resolution,” per the readout, which added that Tehran is “seeking to harm its neighbors and draw them into a war ‘that is not theirs.’”

As of Tuesday, Iran had fired about 150 drones and missiles at Qatar since the United States and Israel launched combat operations against Iran on Saturday. Qatar announced on Monday that it also shot down two Iranian Su-24 tactical bombers.


MPs call for ban on London’s Al Quds Day march amid extremism concerns
MPs and peers are calling for the annual Al Quds Day march, which has long seen displays of support for the Iranian regime, to be banned over extremism fears.

The demo is scheduled to take place on March 15 and is organised by the Islamic Human Rights Commission, which is under investigation by the Charity Commission over funding concerns.

It has previously seen attendees carrying Hezbollah flags, before the group was proscribed, and a video promoting this year’s demonstration showed protesters holding signs bearing the IHRC logo, which said the late Ayatollah Khamenei was on the “right side of history”.

In a statement on Sunday, the IHRC said Khamenei was a “rare role model”, and his “legacy will be etched into history as someone who resisted oppression and stood on the right side of history”.

The Al Quds demonstration, held in London each year during Ramadan, is part of an international day of demonstrations established in 1979 by Ruhollah Khomeini after the Iranian revolution.

At the centre of the messaging is hatred of Israel.

David Taylor, Labour MP for Hemel Hempstead, said: “The police must stop this march from going ahead. We cannot allow hundreds of supporters of Iran’s hardline regime to march through London calling for strikes on Israel and death to the West. “The march is organised by a charity with a history of support for the ayatollahs and Islamist terrorism. In the past, we have seen open support for terrorist organisations at these demonstrations. These are people who clearly hate Britain. Why should we be OK with them marching on our streets?”


British students mourn ‘beloved’ Ayatollah
Students at British universities have shared posts mourning the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the dictator of Iran.

More than a dozen student-led societies have expressed their “sincere condolences” to the so-called “beloved” Iranian supreme leader, with one even advertising a “candlelight vigil” in his memory.

Ahlul-Bayt Islamic societies (AbSocs), the student-led groups affiliated with the dominant Shia sect of Islam in Iran, are leading tributes.

AbSoc members at the University of Manchester plan to hold a candlelit vigil on Wednesday “honouring the Ayatollah”.

On March 6, they also plan to host a “commemorative” gathering to “remember the martyrs of the recent strikes”, and they encourage attendees to bring food.

On Instagram, alongside a giant picture of a tearful Khamenei bowing his head, organisers wrote: “Bring your families, bring your placards, bring your voices.”

At the University of Cambridge, students affiliated with AbSoc shared a picture of Khamenei embracing a young girl with the caption: “This is the man who was killed by the leaders in the Epstein files.”

Students at UCL posted a warning against the “policing of Muslim” grief on campuses, explaining: “Students are entitled both legally and morally to mourn, to speak, and to organise within the law.”

At the University of Edinburgh, students shared a black and white photo of the Ayatollah alongside the caption: “Condolences on the martyrdom of Ayatollah Sayyid Khaemenei.” An Instagram story by City AbSoc 'on the martyrdom of Ayatollah Sayed Ali Khamenei' An Instagram story by City AbSoc ‘on the martyrdom of Ayatolla




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