The US talks tough on Lebanon - but also gives Hezbollah a huge prize at the same time ~ Elder Of Ziyon

Tuesday, July 15, 2025

The US talks tough on Lebanon - but also gives Hezbollah a huge prize at the same time

According to L'Orient Today US negotiator for Lebanon Tom Barrack dropped two bombshells last week.

The first:

He spoke of a 90-day disengagement agreement, a trial period to test whether trust can be established. In the same interview, he hinted that the cease-fire agreement reached in late November is no longer working in its current form.

What was he insinuating? Despite official statements, Lebanon has not upheld the terms of that deal, particularly with regard to dismantling Hezbollah’s weapons south of the Litani, and even north of it.

On the 91st day, it will already be too late.

For those still hesitating or betting on time — specifically, on the outcome of negotiations with Tehran‚ it should be remembered how Donald Trump gave Iran 60 days to reach a deal before Israel took matters into its own hands.

The path Barrack laid out for Lebanon is clear: the country is expected to follow in Syria’s footsteps toward a new Pax Americana. The demands, therefore, go far beyond Hezbollah’s disarmament, which is now seen as a necessary step, regardless of the broader process. Failing that, what lies ahead is abandonment, isolation, explosion, and implosion.

The US is expecting Lebanon - as well as Syria - to at least make peace with Israel, if not normalization.

But Barrack also said something which goes against US policy since 1997:

for the first time, he referred to Hezbollah as a Lebanese political party, drawing a clear line between its political role and its armed wing, which is designated by several countries as a terrorist organization.

This marks a significant shift in the U.S. approach, which maintains sanctions on the party as a whole. In the current context, it also represents a rare opportunity, an unexpected offer for Lebanon’s Shiites to break free from Iran’s grip and reintegrate into the Lebanese fold.

This distinction could offer Hezbollah a chance to build on its considerable parliamentary, administrative, social and economic influence. If the party truly chooses to abandon its military project.

In other words, Washington is not necessarily seeking to dismantle Hezbollah, but rather to bring it into the ‘rules of the game,’ under the logic of the state rather than that of ‘resistance.’

While I have reservations about this, it is a very Trump-like approach. If Hezbollah wants to survive in any form, it has to give up its weapons, and to the US, this is non-negotiable. Once that is done, then it can represent Lebanon's Shiites politically and can lose its terrorist designation from the US (and likely from everyone else.)

It's a gamble, but I can see its appeal. Hezbollah isn't going to disappear in any scenario. Here Barrack is giving Hezbollah both a carrot and stick - if it doesn't cooperate with Lebanon in giving up its weapons, within 90 days, Israel will strike.

It comes down to how much influence Iran still has over Hezbollah. It couldn't convince Hezbollah to attack during the June war, but the loyalty is still there. Severing those ties would have huge positive repercussions. But even if that happens, Iran could still create smaller militias in Lebanon, as they are doing in Syria, that those respective governments simply are not equipped to combat.

Terrorists love chaos. And it is too easy to create chaos in the Middle East. The US has a plan, and it is in many ways as good as any we've seen up until now, but that doesn't mean it can be achieved.