Monday, November 04, 2024
Elder of Ziyon
We have been hearing about what seem to be sporadic attacks by Iraqi Shiite groups, but the media has not paid much attention to them.
This is a mistake. They are much larger than we have been led to believe, have much higher capabilities and are indistinguishable from Iran itself.
The umbrella group is called the Islamic Resistance in Iraq (IRI) , comprising at east six separate Shiite militant groups. Its first actions occurred shortly after October 7, 2023, when they began attacking US bases in Iraq and Syria.
These are not small terror cells. The major groups (Kataib Hezbollah, Ahl al Haq and Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba) each have about 10,000 fighters.
Iran has managed to essentially subvert Iraq, as these groups and other Shiite groups have cooperated with the Iraqi army in fighting ISIS. Some of these groups are part of Iraq's Popular Mobilization Forces which is officially integrated with Iraq's security apparatus. The PMF has between 100,000 and 150,000 fighters.
Much like Hezbollah, Iran controls these groups. They are funded by Iran's Revolutionary Guards and benefit from Iranian training and weapons. Their logos resemble that of Hezbollah.
Iran has been transferring ballistic missiles to these groups for years, but that activity has been increasing in recent weeks.
Reports indicate that Israel has identified targets in Iraq but this is far more complicated than attacking Hezbollah in Lebanon. Not to mention that Iraq is officially an ally of the US.
So we have an Iraqi government that not only cannot control these anti-Israel terror groups but cooperates with them. The groups even claim that they have received US air support in battles against ISIS.
The threat is only growing. The Institute for the Study of War counts 64 separate claimed drone attacks against Israel in October from Iraq, double the September numbers - and the IRI promises to double that number again in November.
While Israel should never say it wouldn't attack these groups in Iraq, it should make clear that the rules have changed in Iran's game of using proxies to attack Israel. If there is a major drone an/or missile attack from Iraq (or Yemen) against Israel, Israel must clearly say it will retaliate against Iran itself. The fiction that these wars are all separate and distinct is a major Iranian propaganda point, but it is obvious that Iran is directing all the actions from Gaza, Lebanon,. Iraq, Yemen and many from the West Bank. Israel needs to explicitly say that it regards all of these groups as Iranian and will respond to the head of the octopus, not only the tentacles.
Right now Iran has no skin in the game, and its dependence on proxies proves that it is frightened of Israel, especially since Israel decimated its air defenses. Only by Israel linking Iran with the actions of its proxies could the attacks stop. No less important is for Israel to establish the direct link between Iran and the proxies and its ultimate responsibility for their actions, because the news media has been avoiding making that linkage and Israel must end the pretense that these groups are supporting Hamas rather than attempting to encircle and destroy Israel.
