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Friday, August 28, 2026

08/27 Links Pt1: Who Is Really Running Iran?; Why Did Israel Take Over an UNRWA School in Jerusalem?; IDF kill Sinwar bodyguard who took part in Oct. 7 attack

From Ian:

Who Is Really Running Iran?
In late July, Iran's president, Masoud Pezeshkian, was finally granted an audience with the country's elusive new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei. According to Iran International, citing sources inside the president's office and others, Pezeshkian was driven to an undisclosed location, transferred into a commercial vehicle with tinted windows, and placed beside a man he was told was the supreme leader.

The car was kept in darkness. No handshake was permitted. The encounter was reportedly brief and conducted entirely by voice. Pezeshkian allegedly left wondering whether he had met Mojtaba Khamenei at all.

Iran has a supreme leader whom almost nobody sees, a president who cannot reliably reach him, and a military establishment that increasingly makes decisions in his name. In Iran, where the leader's image is part of the machinery of authority, invisibility creates a vacuum.

The most important leader is Ahmad Vahidi, commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. He has served as defense minister, interior minister, and commander of the Quds Force, Iran's principal instrument of foreign covert action.

Argentina accuses Vahidi of involvement in planning the 1994 bombing of the AMIA Jewish community center in Buenos Aires, which killed 85 people. This allegation places Iran's most powerful military institution under a man associated with terrorism, proxies and covert action as ordinary instruments of statecraft.

Around Vahidi stands a small fraternity of veteran Guards commanders and intelligence officials whose careers stretch back to the revolution and the Iran-Iraq War. Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, shapes strategy. Mohammad-Bagher Zolghadr connects the institutions. Hossein Taeb, the former chief of IRGC Intelligence who now heads the Basij paramilitary organization, watches the streets. Together, they are the operating system of the Islamic Republic.

Iran's security establishment captured the decisive institutions of the state. The Guards did not abolish the clerical state; they climbed inside it. They kept its constitution, rituals and religious vocabulary while concentrating practical power in the hands of men with military and intelligence backgrounds. They do not need Iran to win today. They need the West to lose patience tomorrow.
The Best Outcome for Core U.S. Interests Is the Collapse of the Iranian Regime
Twenty years of experience as an American diplomat has made me realize that no amount of diplomatic ingenuity can contain Iran. President Donald Trump is right to resort to an intensive economic pressure campaign, backed by the implicit threat of renewed kinetic action. The U.S. should keep pushing until it gets the best outcome for American interests, the region and the Iranian people: the shattering of the illegitimate regime in Tehran.

I was sent to Kuwait for my first State Department assignment, arriving in 2007 at the peak of Iraq's bloody civil war. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps drove much of the violence, building death squads and militias and arming them with IEDs that killed and injured hundreds of U.S. service members.

My subsequent tour in Bahrain coincided with the onset of the Arab Spring protests in 2010. Popular grievances fueled the demonstrations, but Iran exploited the situation, pouring fuel on sectarian tensions. Gulf rulers seized on fears of Iranian interference to justify the Saudi-led intervention that put an end to the protests.

From 2011 to 2013, I coordinated State Department policy for Lebanon - a country hollowed out by decades of Iranian meddling and hostage to Tehran's shadow war against Israel. Billions of dollars of IRGC backing meant Hizbullah outgunned Lebanon's national army and possessed an arsenal of 60,000 rockets and missiles aimed at Israeli towns and cities. Iran in 2013 dispatched Hizbullah to shore up the Assad regime in Syria during the civil war, fueling a conflict that led to over half a million deaths.

The mullahs might not have orchestrated Hamas's Oct. 7, 2023, attacks, but IRGC know-how and hundreds of millions of dollars of funding over two decades enabled the rampage into Israel that killed more than 1,200 people, including 46 Americans.

The regime in Tehran bears overwhelming responsibility for the mayhem and misery in the Middle East since 1979, and its hold on power is a dire threat to regional stability. The current showdown is an inevitable result of the Iranian regime's efforts to dominate the region through bullying, blackmail and terror. The best outcome for the region - and for core U.S. interests - is the regime's collapse.
How Tehran Survives U.S. Sanctions
Iran has spent years setting up a complex system of oil sales and clandestine shadow banking that it hopes will sustain its economy and military long enough to outlast the latest U.S. economic assault.

The U.S. naval blockade of Iran's ports has reduced Iranian oil exports to near zero. But Tehran still has 80 million barrels of oil stored offshore in oil tankers, mainly in the waters off Malaysia.

Relying on a ship-to-ship transfer system, sanctioned tankers unload crude onto other tankers in international waters to mask the fuel's origin, then ship the cargo to China.

U.S. sanctions generally aim to cut off targets from the U.S. financial system. But sanctions become less effective if U.S. enemies avoid the U.S. financial system entirely.

Iran's transactions with China are increasingly settled in Chinese yuan, outside U.S. oversight. Iran also uses cryptocurrencies to avoid U.S. oversight.

Moreover, Tehran operates a network of shell companies in hubs including Hong Kong and Dubai that are controlled by Iranian exchange houses. These move Iranian oil proceeds into other currencies.

As Washington sanctions one front company, Tehran simply spins up another.
Iranian Cyber Sabotage Is Targeting U.S. Water Systems
The Iranian regime recently executed a series of targeted digital intrusions against water infrastructure in the U.S. This aggressive campaign focused on the operational technology networks of municipal drinking water and wastewater treatment facilities across 7-12 states.

The primary mechanism of the attacks is the scanning of the public internet for exposed programmable logic controllers, which are specialized industrial mini-computers responsible for managing physical machinery, water flow, and chemical treatment cycles.

A pivotal potential vulnerability exposed during this campaign was the indirect threat to the chemical treatment and safety of the supply of drinking water. If water flow drops significantly at a particular location while automated chemical injectors continue to pump in the disinfectant chlorine at pre-set levels, the concentration of chlorine in that section of the facility can rapidly skyrocket to toxic, highly corrosive levels.

Irrespective of its actual impact, this sabotage event borders on the threshold of biochemical warfare insofar as it was a deliberate attempt to inflict a toxicant on an adversary population. The sabotage was designed to prove that a foreign adversary can silently compromise the safety of both U.S. industry structures and individual Americans' household tap water from thousands of miles away.


Khaled Abu Toameh: America's New Scam?: Hamas Elections by Another Name is Still Hamas
Hussein al-Sheikh, vice president of the Palestinian Authority (PA) and deputy chairman of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), revealed this week that Hamas... has reached an understanding with the US permitting figures affiliated with the terrorist organization to participate [in the upcoming November 29 PA elections] through a "new political framework."

If this account is accurate, the scheme amounts to a dangerous exercise in deception.

Changing Hamas's name does not change Hamas. Pretending that Hamas-affiliated election candidates are somehow different from Hamas because they are running under another banner is a scam.

Perhaps they could call themselves the "Palestinian Peace Movement," or the "Palestinian Party for Democracy and Transparency"?

Hamas does not recognize Israel's right to exist. It has never accepted the PLO as the "sole legitimate representative of the Palestinian people." It rejects the Oslo Accords. Its ideology remains centered on "resistance" and the claimed "liberation" of Palestine — which in fact has never existed — wishfully from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean Sea.

Most importantly, Hamas has still not demonstrated that it is prepared to surrender its weapons and cease functioning as an armed organization.

Hamas will promise anything if doing so helps it survive and return to political legitimacy.

Hamas has proved itself adept at telling outsiders what they want to hear while pursuing its long-term objectives.

The same danger applies to elections

Why, after October 7, should anyone, let alone the Trump administration, be searching for formulas to facilitate Hamas's return to Palestinian political life?

Why, nearly three years after October 7, 2023, does a terrorist organization such as Hamas continue to be treated by various international and regional parties as some kind of indispensable political actor? Hamas officials continue to participate in negotiations and meetings through regional mediators, while discussions increasingly seem aimed not at removing Hamas from Palestinian political life but at finding ways to accommodate it.

There can be no loophole called "Hamas-affiliated independents." There can be no cosmetic rebranding and no supposedly "new political framework" designed to disguise the identity of candidates who continue to embrace Hamas and its jihadist ideology.

Stop the deception. Stop searching for ways to sneak Hamas back into Palestinian political life through the back door. It is not good for either their election or America's.
Why Did Israel Take Over an UNRWA School in Jerusalem?
The United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) was placed in the spotlight once again when Israeli forces took over an UNRWA facility in northern Jerusalem that had served as a vocational school.

This follows the dismantling of UNRWA’s headquarters by Israel in January 2026.

Both incidents follow Israel’s 2024 decision to bar the UN agency from operating in Israeli territory, including the entire city of Jerusalem.

While the media and the United Nations are predictably aghast at Israel’s actions, feigning shock at how a UN body could be treated this way, Israel’s barring of UNRWA from its territory and subsequent reclamation of property used by the agency make sense when you zoom out and look at the context through which these actions are taking place.

UNRWA was founded in 1949 as a provider of welfare and relief services to Palestinians who were displaced by the violence during the closing days of the British Mandate and the Israeli War of Independence.

However, unlike the Jewish refugees from the same time period who were quickly absorbed by the nascent Jewish state, the Palestinian refugees were left in a perpetual position of statelessness and never integrated into the Arab states to which they had been displaced.

UNRWA played a large role in the perpetuation of the Palestinian refugee issue by extending the definition of who is a Palestinian refugee. The agency allowed all descendants of male refugees to claim this status, and allowed those with alternative citizenships to maintain their refugee status (a benefit not given to other refugees).

As HonestReporting noted earlier this year, “Rather than resettlement, rehabilitation, or integration, UNRWA has institutionalized a frozen political and national identity rooted in 1948.”

Before October 7, UNRWA was heavily criticized for its role in not settling the Palestinian refugee problem but instead perpetuating it for political ends. Its schools and summer camps were used for the indoctrination of children into antisemitism and violence, and a blind eyes was given to terror groups hiding weapons in its facilities. UNRWA was criticized for not acting as a neutral humanitarian organization but more like an activist group that had taken an active antagonistic role in the Arab-Israeli conflict.

This all came to a head following the terrorist invasion of southern Israel on October 7, 2023.

In the weeks and months that followed, investigations into UNRWA found that up to 1,200 UNRWA employees in Gaza (10% of the organization’s workforce in the coastal enclave) were reported to have ties to the two main Palestinian terror groups in the area, Hamas and Islamic Jihad.

In addition, it was recently reported that 101 UNRWA employees were referred for suspension or debarment from receiving U.S. aid funds due to their active membership in Hamas or participation in the October 7 atrocities, including attacking Israeli targets and participating in the abduction of Israelis to Gaza.

Instead of taking seriously the close terror ties of its employees in Gaza and other areas where the organization is active, UNRWA has belittled these findings and diminished its responsibility in weeding out the terror supporters among its ranks.

In addition, a recent study has shown that UNRWA has not reformed its schools and continues to disseminate material that is antisemitic and glorifies terrorism.

Due to its perpetuation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, relations between its employees and terrorist organizations, and continued distribution of inflammatory educational materials, Israel finally cut ties with UNRWA in October 2024, barring the organization from operating within its borders, including Jerusalem.


Israel hits back at 15 countries, EU over criticism of UNRWA compound seizure
The Foreign Ministry on Thursday sharply criticized a joint statement by 15 countries and the European Union condemning Israel’s entry into a UNRWA training center in Kalandia and the seizure of the agency’s facilities in eastern Jerusalem two days earlier.

The countries called on Israel to “honor its commitments” and immediately stop what they described as interference with UNRWA’s operations.

The statement, signed by the UK, France, Germany, Canada, Italy, Spain, Japan, and other countries, reaffirmed their support for UNRWA and argued that Israel’s entry into the facilities was illegal. They said UN facilities are protected under international law and called on Israel to allow UNRWA to carry out its work without obstruction.

In response, the Israeli Foreign Ministry said: “Your facts are wrong. You support an organization that is a breeding ground for terrorism, and you prefer to attack Israel with baseless accusations instead of acting for the benefit of Arab children in Kafr Akab. This is a disgrace.”

The ministry also claimed that, according to a report by the USAID Office of Inspector General, which US President Donald Trump referenced on Thursday, more than 100 UNRWA employees participated in the October 7 Hamas attack.

UNRWA never had permission to use site, ministry claims
“UNRWA employees served as terror operatives, and UNRWA facilities were systematically used for terror purposes,” the ministry said.

The Foreign Ministry said this was the reason UNRWA operations in Israel were banned, adding that “all Israeli actions were carried out in accordance with Israeli law and international law.”

The ministry further claimed that UNRWA never had property rights over the compound and that the organization had been using the site unlawfully. According to the ministry, the compound is planned to become a school and community center for children in the Kafr Akab neighborhood.

The dispute comes two days after police forces raided a UNRWA training compound in Kafr Akab , following an announcement by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that “in accordance with my directive and following the law we passed, the evacuation of the UNRWA compound in Kafr Akab in Jerusalem begins today.”

Netanyahu later clarified: “The State of Israel will not allow an organization whose employees were involved in terrorism and the October 7 massacre to operate in its territory and will act against it using all available tools.”

According to statements from both sides, the compound targeted in the raid was a “training compound.” UNRWA said the site housed refugees and hosted workshops and classes. Following the raid, the Israeli Foreign Ministry said the Jerusalem Municipality had already begun work at the site to convert it into an educational center.

The Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee previously approved legislation aimed at ending UNRWA’s operations in Israel. The laws stipulate, among other measures, that UNRWA will not be permitted to operate a representative office, provide services, or conduct activities within Israel’s sovereign territory.

The legislation also calls for revoking the organization’s diplomatic status and canceling diplomatic visas for UNRWA personnel.


US clears Strait of Hormuz as 50,000 troops maintain blockade of Iran, CENTCOM chief says
The US military has cleared Iranian sea mines from internationally recognized shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz, US Central Command (CENTCOM) commander Adm. Brad Cooper said in an operational update on Thursday evening.

The Strait of Hormuz, which is an international shipping zone critical to the world economy, can now be transited freely, Cooper said, dubbing the achievement a "major milestone."

"Bottom line, today, international shipping lanes are open and momentum is building."

CENTCOM cleared the strait with "a combination of Navy divers, Navy SEALs, and US air power from the Army, Navy, Air Force, and Marine Corps," he said.

"The circumstances were challenging and dangerous to say the least, but we got the job done."

US hasn't allowed Iranian ships to pass strait except for humanitarian reasons, Cooper said
Moreover, nearly 1500 vessels carrying roughly 750 million barrels of crude oil have transited the strait in the past months, Cooper said, adding that this was done with the protection of US forces.

At the same time, he said, around 50,000 US troops are executing a blockade on Iran, preventing the country from shipping oil since mid-July.

"No ships have entered or left an Iranian port without our permission, and we have only allowed ships to pass through on humanitarian grounds," he maintained, crediting the "dedication and professionalism" of US sailors, Marines, and airmen.

More than 20 warships and hundreds of aircraft took part in the operations in the Strait of Hormuz, Cooper said. These forces turned around 75 vessels attempting to breach the blockade, and disabled three, he added.

"I just could not be prouder of their efforts, and I know that the American people share that same pride. So to all our service members, keep up the great work, continue to take care of one another, and Godspeed."


More than 170 terror victims, family members sue Iran, Syria over attacks
More than 170 U.S. and Israeli victims of terrorism and their family members sued Iran and Syria on Tuesday, accusing the two countries of providing material support to terrorist organizations responsible for attacks in which they or their relatives were killed or injured.

The lawsuit was filed in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia. Attorneys Gavriel Mairone and Oceane Maher, whose work focuses in part on counterterrorism, are representing the plaintiffs. The case names Iran, Syria, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the Iranian Ministry of Intelligence and Security, Bank Melli Iran and Bank Saderat as defendants, along with Hamas, Hezbollah and Palestinian Islamic Jihad.

The complaint alleges that Iran and Syria provided material support to Hamas, Hezbollah, Palestinian Islamic Jihad and the Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades, and seeks to hold the two countries liable for 29 attacks carried out by those groups between 1995 and 2023 in Israel, the Gaza Strip, Judea and Samaria and Lebanon.

The plaintiffs allege that Iran developed a “ring of fire” of “armed proxy organizations arrayed along Israel’s borders to coordinate attacks against Israel and advance Iran’s objective of destroying the Jewish state.”

Under the Assad regime, Syria was “Iran’s first and most important regional state partner” in supporting Tehran’s terror networks, the complaint states, adding that the Assad regime “facilitated the passage of Iranian personnel, funding and weapons through its territory for the benefit of Hezbollah and Palestinian terrorist organizations.”

The complaint also accuses Bank Melli Iran and Bank Saderat of serving as conduits for Iranian funds to terrorist organizations.

“The terrorist attacks were part of a systematic and widespread campaign of suicide bombings, mass shootings and other murderous attacks against the Israeli civilian population and involved the intentional use of explosives, incendiary weapons, firearms and other lethal devices in public places, government facilities and public transportation systems,” the suit states.

The lawsuit was filed under the terrorism exception to the Foreign Sovereign Immunities Act, which permits certain civil claims against foreign governments for terrorism-related injuries and deaths.
Israel and Hamas share blame for breakdown in peace process, Board of Peace rep tells UN Security Council
The Board of Peace’s public face blamed both Israel and Hamas for stalled peace efforts in Gaza in an appearance at the United Nations Security Council on Wednesday.

Nickolay Mladenov, the U.S.-backed board’s high representative for Gaza, told the council during a briefing on the Israeli-Palestinian file that “ceasefires that deliver nothing visible are not sustained by patience.”

“They are only exhausted by it,” he said.

Mladenov said that Hamas and other Gazan terror groups agreed to give up their arms and yield power to a new Palestinian governing authority, but he also decried Hamas for not living up to its commitments to disarm, based on a “roadmap” to peace to which Israel and Hamas agreed, at least in principle.

“Every weapon carried, every tunnel still worked on and every convoy still obstructed, sets the process back,” Mladenov said. “It will be Palestinian civilians, women and children, who will bear the consequences.”

Jerusalem did not emerge unscathed. He denounced Israel for continued military action in Gazan territory and for failing to use the deconfliction mechanism in place to address imminent threats.

“Will another strike on a munitions depot stop Hamas from rearming or tightening its grip on Gaza?” Mladenov asked rhetorically. “It will not.”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said that Hamas will not disarm based on the provisions of the roadmap alone. That would appear to mean Israel wouldn’t need to withdraw security forces, in a phased manner, from the Strip.

Mladenov said on Wednesday that Israel is not being asked to do anything beyond what it already obligated itself to do when it agreed to U.S. President Donald Trump’s 20-point peace plan last September.

Mladenov appeared to be most critical of issues related to shelter for Gazans.

“Winter is around the corner, and Israel’s present policy on quality shelter is not acceptable,” he said. “The Board of Peace urges the state of Israel to allow better shelter into the Strip for dignity, for health and for safety.”
Lebanese army failing to curb Hezbollah activity in south, Israeli officials tell US
Israel has conveyed a message to the United States through security channels that a pilot program in southern Lebanon, which began being implemented following the signing of a memorandum of understanding between Beirut and Jerusalem, has failed, Walla reported Thursday.

Israel provided information regarding the Lebanese Army’s activities and expressed, in no uncertain terms, its dissatisfaction with the army’s operations against Hezbollah terror infrastructure and operatives in the area.

According to security officials, "The Lebanese Army is not destroying terror infrastructure based on the coordinates provided to it by the IDF, while at the same time requesting more coordinates, even though it is not doing anything about it."

Lebanese army continues to cooperate with Hezbollah
The IDF has criticized the Lebanese Army’s performance, claiming that it is not acting effectively against Hezbollah infrastructure in southern Lebanon. According to assessments, Iran, which previously provided significant support to the organization, is currently focused on its own survival struggles and is not rushing to come to Hezbollah’s aid.

According to assessments by senior IDF officials, Lebanese Army Chief of Staff Rudolf Haykal continues to cooperate with Hezbollah, fears confrontation with commanders of the Shi’ite organization in southern Lebanon, and is ineffective in carrying out searches, locating terror infrastructure and finding weapons.

"There is no real friction between the Lebanese Army and Hezbollah. Hezbollah would not want anyone to collect its weapons or destroy its infrastructure," a senior security official said.

"The Lebanese army chief of staff is not going above and beyond. There is no real enforcement. The Lebanese Army is more focused on coordination," the official said. "It is clear that Israel is not satisfied, and therefore it is not rushing to agree on additional pilot areas."

The official added: "The Lebanese Army reached a point, entered the underground opening a few meters, turned around and left. They did not dare to go inside. We assess that they will not deal with anything. Despite this, they insist on receiving more coordinates."
IDF launches strikes on Hezbollah targets in Southern Lebanon
The Israel Defense Forces on Thursday afternoon commenced a wave of strikes on Hezbollah terrorist targets in Southern Lebanon, the military confirmed to JNS.

No further details were provided.

The announcement came shortly after the IDF confirmed that the Iranian-backed terror group launched two explosive drones at soldiers operating inside the security zone in southeastern Lebanon. There were no casualties among Israeli forces.

“The IDF will not allow the Hezbollah terrorist organization to operate against IDF soldiers in the security zone,” it stated. “The IDF is currently operating and will continue to act with determination against Hezbollah’s repeated attempts to harm IDF soldiers.”

The drones were launched overnight on Wednesday, according to the military. Troops deployed to the Ali al-Taher Ridge fired at the UAVs and downed one of them, according to the statement. Contact was lost with the second drone.

IDF troops over the past several weeks dismantled more than 400 terror infrastructure sites in the security zone, the military said on Wednesday.

The troops located numerous weapons, including anti-tank missiles, surface-to-air missiles, explosive devices, Kalashnikov rifles and mortars.

The IDF will not allow the Hezbollah terrorist organization to harm Israeli civilians or IDF soldiers, and it will continue to operate to remove threats while remaining committed to the ceasefire agreement, the statement added.

The United States is waiting to see what unfolds over the next two days at the Ali al-Taher Ridge, U.S. Ambassador to Lebanon Michel Issa said on Wednesday, according to Lebanon’s MTV television network.
IDF, Shin Bet kill Sinwar bodyguard who took part in Oct. 7 attack
The Israel Defense Forces and Israeli Security Agency (Shin Bet) killed a Hamas Nukhba terrorist identified by the military as a bodyguard of the late Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, in a strike in the Khan Yunis area on Monday, the agencies announced on Thursday.

Razek Sahil Suleiman Abu Shahma took part in the Oct. 7, 2023, infiltration of the IDF’s Re’im base, according to the statement.

In a separate strike in Khan Yunis on Sunday, the IDF killed Hazem Mousa, another Hamas Nukhba terrorist who the military said also infiltrated the base during the massacre. The IDF and Shin Bet said both men had been planning attacks on Israeli troops and civilians and working to rebuild Hamas’s “military” capabilities, in violation of the ceasefire.

On Monday, the IDF also targeted two Hamas terrorists in central Gaza who it said participated in the Oct. 7 massacre, confirming that Nukhba Force member Mohammad Abu Asaad was killed in Deir al-Balah. The military said they too had been planning attacks and rebuilding Hamas’s capabilities.

Also on Monday, the IDF and Shin Bet struck five Hamas weapons-storage facilities and a launch site across the Gaza Strip, including sites inside mosques and near humanitarian infrastructure. After the IDF said it had uncovered dozens of Kalashnikov rifles hidden inside Gaza mosques, Israeli Ambassador to the United States Yechiel Leiter accused Hamas of failing to disarm: “This is not disarmament.”

Israel has also responded to renewed kite launches from Gaza. Defense Minister Israel Katz said on Monday that he and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had instructed the IDF to adopt a “zero-tolerance” policy toward kites and balloons launched from Gaza into communities in the Negev. Netanyahu and Katz warned Hamas that continued launches would lead to intensified strikes against those responsible and evacuations from areas used as launch sites.

The developments came as IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir vowed during a visit to the Gaza Strip on Tuesday that Israel would prevent Hamas from rebuilding and continue pursuing those responsible for the Oct. 7 massacre. “The IDF will not return to the doctrines that prevailed on Oct. 6,” he said.


Call me Back: The Turkey-Israel Proxy War in Syria - with Nadav Eyal
Dan and Nadav Eyal analyze the shifting dynamics in the Middle East, focusing on whether Turkey’s President Erdogan aspires to become a regional superpower given the vacuum left by a weaker Iran. They discuss if Turkey’s military is trying to move further into Syria, crossing what Israel considers a “red line,” Israel’s recent response, and the emerging Sunni axis between Turkey, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia.

In this episode:
-Israel-Turkey relations and recent military friction
-President Erdogan’s strategic ambitions and desire to revive the Ottoman empire
-Turkey's influence in Syria and the potential threat to Israel
-Implications for NATO of the new Sunni axis led by Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan
-Syrian response to Israel's military strike on a Syrian airbase
-How internal politics in both countries are amplifying the tensions between Turkey and Israel







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Reclaiming the Covenant on America's 250th (May 2026)

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