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Wednesday, June 10, 2026

06/09 Links Pt1: US strikes Iran after Trump vows retaliation for downing of US helicopter; Bombing Iran is the perfect way to celebrate Pride; NJ man charged with planning ISIS attack on synagogue

From Ian:

Ben-Dror Yemini: In a War Against Ideology, Calculations of Military Balance Become Less Relevant
Israel faces a special kind of enemy - an ideology built on destruction and victimhood. When Hizbullah fired its first rockets in the current round on March 2, against the will of most Lebanese, it knew that whatever damage it caused Israel, the damage to Lebanon itself would be 100 times greater. Because of Hizbullah, most villages in southern Lebanon are destroyed and close to a million people have been displaced.

Iran and Hizbullah are one entity with one ideology. In a war against an ideology, calculations about the balance of power become less relevant. Iran's ideology of destruction extends as far as its reach allows. With the power it still has left, Tehran is managing to damage the global economy by closing the Strait of Hormuz. Despite the ceasefire, last week it seriously damaged Kuwait's airport and a nuclear power plant in the UAE.

Iran feels it is on top. Public pressure is lining up in full force alongside Hamas, Hizbullah and Iran. Had World War II been fought the way wars against jihad, Iran and terrorism are fought today, the Allies would have been accused of war crimes and the Nazis would be ruling the world.

Iran and its proxies must be defeated. Israel's war is just. But it is a difficult war. It is not over. Not even close. More is coming. But giving up is not an option. This is a Sisyphean war. Hizbullah can and must be isolated through a diplomatic chokehold, together with Lebanon's leadership and the Lebanese people, who are ready for a peace agreement.
Dennis Ross: The War in Iran May Yet Lead, in Time, to Genuine Change
In the short term, Iran has proven surprisingly deft at using its leverage. But over the long haul, the internal incoherence and deep-rooted failures of the Islamic Republic may yet lead to historic changes for the better in Tehran.

Iran has two powerful levers it did not think to apply before this conflict: disrupting transit through the Strait of Hormuz and attacking its Gulf Arab neighbors' oil facilities. But Iran has also suffered profound losses to its military capabilities and defense industrial base, not to mention to an economy that is near collapse. Much will depend on how much of an economic lifeline Trump provides to Iran. A smart deal would limit sanctions relief as much as possible. Relief would only buy the regime time.

The regime's endemic corruption and massive mismanagement will be compounded by its new leadership's attempts to rebuild its military and defense industrial base. That will require huge resources, which won't be reconcilable with the needs of the civilian economy, the current crisis of mass unemployment, and the regime's chronic inability to deliver water, electricity, and a currency that has any value.
Israel Seeks a Decisive Resolution but Iran Still Remains a Threat
Although Iran has been significantly weakened, it still retains substantial levers of power. Jerusalem Center analysts assess that, despite the recent escalation, the current situation does not necessarily signal the start of a large-scale war.

Dr. Jacques Neriah believes both sides are engaged in a relatively limited round of fighting. He cautions that Iran continues to operate, the Houthis have resumed attacks on Israel, and Hizbullah retains significant military capabilities.

Ella Rosenberg notes that while Iran's overall economy has suffered greatly, the Revolutionary Guards have not only preserved their power but, in some areas, even strengthened it. They continue to benefit from diverse revenue streams, including oil sales, financial networks, and illicit activities.

Yoni Ben Menachem said that the prolonged absence of the Houthis from the fighting was due to an Iranian decision to preserve them for the right moment. The Houthis can disrupt the critical shipping route through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at any time.

Oded Ailam sees the current moment as a rare opportunity to weaken Hizbullah's grip on Lebanon and empower local actors seeking to reduce Tehran's influence.


Jonathan Sacerdoti: Bombing Iran is the perfect way to celebrate Pride
It is estimated that 4,000-6,000 executions have been carried out for homosexual acts since the 1979 Revolution, but exact numbers are hard to verify due to lack of official transparency. Charges are also often bundled with “corruption on earth” (ifsad fil-ard), rape, or political offenses.

There is widespread discrimination, harassment by morality police, family “honour” killings, and prison rape and abuse of gay detainees. Gay people have no legal protections. Pro-gay activism is suppressed, and open expression risks arrest.

Somewhat peculiarly, Iran stands out in the Muslim world for permitting and even partially subsidising so-called sex reassignment surgery, following a fatwa by Ayatollah Khomeini in the 1980s. It has one of the highest numbers of such surgeries globally, because the regime views ‘gender dysphoria’ as a medical issue solvable by surgery. Many gay and lesbian individuals face pressure from families, clerics, or authorities to undergo surgery as a cure, to avoid homosexuality charges, effectively forcing them to undergo sterilisation and genital mutilation. ‘Trans’ people still face discrimination and violence.

Rape and sexual violence have been systematically employed as tools of torture, humiliation, and political control in Iran’s prisons, particularly in notorious facilities such as Evin and Kahrizak. Human rights organisations have documented numerous credible testimonies from survivours detailing gang rapes of both male and female detainees by IRGC, Basij, and intelligence agents, often involving multiple perpetrators, batons, or other objects to inflict maximum pain and trauma. These abuses surged during crackdowns like the 2009 Green Movement protests and the 2022-2023 Woman, Life, Freedom uprising, where prisoners were subjected to sexual assault to extract confessions, break spirits, or punish perceived opposition.

Male victims frequently endure anal rape framed as domination rather than homosexuality under the regime’s Sharia-based logic, while female prisoners face vaginal and anal violations, sometimes justified through twisted religious pretexts.

Despite consistent international reporting and survivor accounts, Iranian authorities usually deny or dismiss these practices, with near-total impunity for perpetrators, underscoring the regime’s use of sexual terror as an instrument of authoritarian governance.

So while the Tel Aviv pride parade hasn’t yet been officially cancelled, I for one can see no better replacement for the traditional drug-fuelled display of sexual vulgarity than the continued thrashing of the horrific Iranian regime. I’m not sure the Gays for Palestine or Zack Polanski’s Islamist-aligned go-go dancers will agree, but this seems a far more meaningful way to stand up for non-heteronormative rights.
Billions in aid handed to terrorists and criminals
Terrorists, hostile states and gangsters have been given more than £28bn of taxpayers’ money, including through aid payments, according to a secret government report.

The Telegraph can reveal details of a dossier showing that billions of pounds went to organised crime, with millions going to Russia and Islamic State.

It demonstrates that foreign aid and Covid relief loans were appropriated on a vast scale by Britain’s enemies, with the money beyond reach and those who took it unpunished.

More than £28bn ended up in the hands of those wishing to harm Britain between 2015 and 2021, according to the report, which was commissioned and produced by the Cabinet Office but was buried during the previous government.

Sources said it was never made public to save the government from the political embarrassment of revealing the huge scale of misdirected funds.

The Telegraph can reveal the existence of the document, believed to be the first assessment of how much taxpayer money has gone on to fund national security threats. It includes:
Grants given to companies linked to the Russian state
Covid loans sent to Islamic State terrorists
Investment in research for companies linked to the Chinese military

Rebecca Harding, of the Centre for Economic Security, said the dossier should be a wake-up call that “economic warfare and economic security are more important than ever before – there have been threats from adversaries, state actors and non-state actors that go through the business system”.

She added: “One of the problems is we have assumed that everybody wants the same thing as us. What we haven’t realised is, when it comes to other countries... [some] want to project their economic power in a way that undermines our economic power.

“It is economic warfare, and we have been naive about all of this.”
New Jersey man charged with planning ISIS attack on synagogue
Mohamed Sagha, 22, of Passaic County, N.J., was charged with aiding a foreign terror group for allegedly planning to carry out an ISIS attack on a synagogue, the U.S. Department of Justice said on Monday.

He faces up to 20 years in prison and a $250,000 fine.

Sagha, who lives in Wayne, discussed “potential attacks on targets within the United States, including places of worship” with an undercover source, whom he believed to be part of the terror group, in online chats from December 2025 until June 2026, the department alleged. It said that he also shared photos and videos of the alleged target sites.

The New Jersey man allegedly told the source that “he was contemplating carrying out an attack of his own, possible on a National Guard location or on a Jewish place of worship” near his home, and in March 2026, he tried to travel to ISIS territory in Syria to support the terror organization, according to court filings.

“Those who seek to advance the objectives of foreign terrorist organizations should expect a swift and coordinated response from federal law enforcement,” stated Robert Frazer, U.S. attorney for the District of New Jersey.

The Justice Department alleges that Sagha purchased a virtual private network, a communications encryption tool, for the source, whom he believed to be part of ISIS.
Rubio's backing helped Israel secure Trump's green light to strike Iran
Israel and the U.S. are fully coordinated, both on the strikes in Hizbullah's Dahiyeh stronghold in Beirut and on the Israeli response to the missile fire from Iran. President Trump was persuaded that Iran must not be allowed to achieve gains as a result of its attack on Israel.

Iran decided to respond to the strike in Dahiyeh and try its luck at driving a wedge between Jerusalem and Washington by firing missiles at Israel. After Trump made public statements that he would ask Prime Minister Netanyahu not to respond, the two leaders held a fairly lengthy conversation, followed by a security and diplomatic consultation in which Secretary of State Rubio played a significant role.

Sources told Israel Hayom that Israel launched its strike on Iran after coordination and American consent. The lines were drawn for a powerful strike, but one limited to several hours. The targets were also agreed upon. Netanyahu convinced Trump that failing to launch an attack would give Iran an advantage and might even harden its positions in the negotiations with the U.S.
US strikes Iran after Trump vows retaliation for downing of US helicopter over Hormuz
The US military early Wednesday carried out strikes in Iran following the downing of a US Apache helicopter, which President Donald Trump accused Iran of shooting down and vowed retaliation, casting doubt on his previous claims that Washington and Tehran were on the verge of reaching an agreement to permanently end the fighting.

US Central Command described the “self-defense strikes against Iran” as “a proportional response to unjustified Iranian aggression. CENTCOM later announced it had completed the strikes, saying they hit Iranian air defense, ground control stations and surveillance radar sites near the Strait of Hormuz.

“US forces remain vigilant and postured to defend against unjustified Iranian aggression,” said a CENTCOM statement.

In response, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it attacked the US Fifth Fleet in Bahrain with drones, warning of “a more severe response” if what it describes as US “aggression” continues. It later announced additional attacks on US bases in Kuwait and Jordan, with the latter targeting F-35 fighter jet hangars and a command-and-control center. Jordanian armed forces said they intercepted and shot down five missiles, while Kuwait said its air defenses were engaging “hostile aerial targets.”

“The warmongering US regime attacked several points in Jask, Sirik and Qeshm early this morning under false pretexts, damaging a telecommunications mast in Sirik and destroying two water tanks in the city,” the IRGC said in a statement quoted by Iranian media.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi also threatened the US: “Our powerful armed forces will leave no attack or threat unanswered.”

“Leave our region if you want to be safe,” he wrote on X. “History of the Persian Gulf has many chapters on dire fates of intruding outsiders.” US President Donald Trump gestures as he steps off Air Force One, June 9, 2026, at Joint Base Andrews, Maryland. (AP/Mark Schiefelbein)

Trump initially downplayed the incident during a phone interview with Wall Street Journal, saying the downing of the helicopter “wasn’t a big deal” and that “the pilot is fine.” The newspaper said Trump was later convinced by US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Gen. Dan Caine to retaliate.

“I have just been informed by our great military that last night the Iranians shot down one of our highly sophisticated Apache Helicopters while patrolling over the Strait of Hormuz,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “There were two pilots involved, both are safe and uninjured.

“Nevertheless, the United States must, of necessity, respond to this attack,” he continued, without elaborating on what the response could look like.

The development came just a day after the US restored a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, although both countries hinted on Tuesday at the possibility of further military action down the road, if deemed necessary.


NYT: Iran will dilute rather than hand over uranium stockpile as part of deal with US
The United States and Iran have honed in on four key points of negotiation during talks to permanently end the fighting that began with a joint US-Israeli offensive back in February, the New York Times reported on Tuesday.

While various key issues being discussed by the US and Iran during the Pakistan-mediated talks have already been well documented, the report, citing US officials and diplomats familiar with the matter, suggested that the sides are much closer to clinching a deal than previously suggested.

According to the newspaper, the deal will include agreements on an extended suspension of uranium enrichment by Iran; the dilution of Tehran’s existing stockpile of enriched uranium; the dismantling of Iranian nuclear sites; and the right for international nuclear watchdogs to conduct snap inspections in the Islamic Republic.

Regarding the matter of suspending uranium enrichment, US officials were quoted saying that Washington wants Iran to halt its enrichment activities for 20 years. In return, they said Iran offered to stop enrichment for 10 years. The US officials said they expect the sides to ultimately reach a compromise of 15 years, though the report noted it was unclear if President Donald Trump would be okay with that after recently saying “it’s gotta be a real 20 years.”

As for Iran’s existing enriched uranium stockpiles, the issue appeared to hit a bump last month, when Iran’s supreme leader issued a directive that the near-weapons-grade uranium should not be sent abroad.

Israeli officials told Reuters at the time that Trump had assured Israel that any peace deal would stipulate that the highly enriched uranium must be sent out of Iran.
Iran’s Quds Force commander warns US, Israel that terror proxies ‘will grab you by the throat’
The commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Quds Force on Monday threatened renewed attacks by Iran and its terrorist proxies against Israeli and U.S. targets across the region.

Esmail Ghaani, in a statement, praised the Iranian-backed Houthi terror group for its “timely and powerful” missile attacks against Israel earlier in the day.

He said the strikes showed the “intelligence of the resistance front” and warned that, “if necessary, others will also come,” according to Iran’s official IRNA outlet.

“From the Strait of Hormuz to Bab al-Mandab, and from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea, a new security belt of the resistance will be formed,” stated Ghaani, whose elite paramilitary branch is tasked with conducting covert operations outside the borders of the Islamic Republic.

“Borderless fighters are overlooking your passage chokepoints,” he warned Jerusalem and Washington. “Continue the aggression and they will grab you by the throat.”

Iran’s military warned earlier on Monday that it would carry out “far more severe and crushing” missile attacks against Israel if the Jewish state continued military operations against Hezbollah.

“The cessation of armed forces operations is hereby announced,” stated the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, Iran’s highest operational military command, according to a translation by Tehran’s Press TV outlet. The announcement came after U.S. President Donald Trump said that Israel and Iran must “immediately stop shooting.”

The regime threatened to resume attacks “if aggression and hostile acts continue, including in Southern Lebanon.”


UK, Australia, Canada, France, Norway sanction ‘extremist settlers’ in Judea and Samaria
The foreign ministers of Australia, Canada, France, Norway and the United Kingdom said on Tuesday that they were taking “coordinated action” to sanction “extremist settlers” for what they said were “horrific levels of settler violence against Palestinian civilians.”

“Extremist violent settlers, with the backing of their supporters, continue to attack Palestinians and abuse their human rights,” the countries said. “They use violence to displace Palestinians, destroy property and perpetuate the illegal settlement enterprise, undermining the viability of the state of Palestine and the prospects for peaceful coexistence.”

The five recognize a Palestinian state. Israel and the United States do not.

Yvette Cooper, the U.K. foreign secretary, said that the group is imposing sanctions on one person and six entities “involved in financing, enabling and carrying out settler violence in the occupied West Bank.” (Some refer to Judea and Samaria as the “West Bank.”)

“Those designated will face asset freezes and, where appropriate, travel bans and director disqualifications,” Cooper told Parliament. “These sanctions will disrupt the flows of finance that have allowed extremist settler groups to act with impunity in the West Bank and demonstrate the U.K.’s commitment to a two-state solution.”

Itamar Yehuda Levi and his company Eyal Hari Yehuda were sanctioned, as were the Farms Association, Ahavat Gilad, Ari Yshag, Artzenu and Shivat Zion Lerigvey Admata.

The Biden administration also sanctioned Eyal Hari Yehuda in late 2024. It previously sanctioned the wrong person, which it called a “data error.” On his first day in office, U.S. President Donald Trump revoked the prior administration’s sanctions on Judea and Samaria.

Israel said on Tuesday that it “firmly rejects” the new sanctions and a visa ban that France announced against Bezalel Smotrich, the Israeli finance minister, and “four leaders of settler organizations and 21 violent settlers.”

Gideon Sa’ar, the Israeli foreign minister, called the decision “disgraceful.”

“The real essence of these steps is the attempt to impose a political stance regarding the right of Jews to settle in the Land of Israel and concerning the Israeli-Palestinian conflict—camouflaged as measures against violence,” he stated.
Gaza talks hosted by Egypt stall as Hamas disarmament ‘remains only point of contention’
Discussions between Palestinian factions and mediators in Cairo aimed at reaching a permanent end to the war in Gaza have stalled over the pivotal question of disarming the territory and Hamas, Palestinian sources told AFP on Tuesday.

“Talks are continuing… in a context of clearly differing visions… with the issue of weapons remaining the only point of contention,” a Palestinian source familiar with the talks told AFP on condition of anonymity as he was not supposed to speak publicly about the discussions.

A second Palestinian official spoke of “progress” in the talks but added that “the weapons question was one of the most contentious issues being discussed.”

The ball was “now in Israel and mediators’ court,” he said, referring to Egypt, Qatar and Turkey.

Palestinian factions insist on the principle that any disarmament must be linked to a “complete Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip,” he said.

That prospect remains distant.

The peace plan put forward by US President Donald Trump, which has received UN endorsement, envisages a full withdrawal of Israeli troops, who currently control roughly 60 percent of the territory, only in the long term.

Israeli strikes have continued at a near-daily pace despite the ceasefire announced in October 2025 after two years of war sparked by the Hamas terror group’s October 2023 invasion of Israel, under the framework presented by Trump.


Israel arrests Haifa man over Iran spy links
Israel Police said on Tuesday they arrested a Haifa resident suspected of carrying out security-related tasks on behalf of Iranian intelligence agents.

The suspect, identified as Ra’anan Ohana, 44, was detained in May in a joint operation by the police’s Menashe central unit and the Israel Security Agency (Shin Bet), according to a police statement.

Investigators allege Ohana was in contact with operatives posing as business contacts and, between January and March 2026—including during “Operation Roaring Lion”—carried out assignments in exchange for cryptocurrency payments. The tasks reportedly included photographing sensitive sites, despite his alleged awareness that he was dealing with a foreign agent.

Police said an indictment is expected to be filed in the coming days.
IDF kills armed terrorist in northern border shootout
The Israel Defense Forces on Tuesday eliminated a terrorist who opened fire at soldiers operating in the Ramim Ridge area of the Upper Galilee, the military said.

“The soldiers returned fire and eliminated a terrorist in the area. No IDF injuries were reported,” the statement said.

The Ramim Ridge is a mountainous area in Israel’s Upper Galilee region, running parallel to the Lebanese border, with some sections lying directly adjacent to the frontier and overlooking Lebanon.

According to the Hebrew-language Channel 12 News outlet, the Lebanese terrorist opened fire after managing to approach the border fence near the Israeli community of Moshav Margaliot.

Security sources told the broadcaster the terrorist is believed to have entered the area in disguise with the goal of infiltrating Israeli territory. A knife and a rifle were reportedly found on his body.

Following the incident, residents of Margaliot, Kibbutz Misgav Am and Kibbutz Manara were told to remain indoors and avoid movement within the communities. Highway 886, which runs along the Ramim Ridge between Yiftach and Manara, was also closed to traffic.

The IDF said the incident was ongoing, with soldiers conducting searches and Israeli Air Force aircraft operating in the area.


IDF hits Hamas naval police HQ in southern Gaza
Israeli forces struck a Hamas naval police headquarters in southern Gaza on Sunday, killing several terrorists and targeting what the military said was a site used to plan attacks against Israel.

The Israel Defense Forces said the strike took place in the Khan Younis area, and identified one of the slain terrorists as Ismail al-Lahham, a cell commander in Hamas’s military wing.

“The Hamas Naval Police in the Gaza Strip operates alongside and under the authority of the terrorist organization’s military wing. It is involved in planning, directing, and executing terrorist activities against IDF troops and the State of Israel,” the IDF said. “The headquarters that was targeted was being used for Hamas’ efforts to rebuild and reconstitute its capabilities, in violation of the ceasefire agreement, including the restoration of the terrorist organization’s military infrastructure while exploiting facilities presented as civilian in nature.”

The IDF also said it had struck and dismantled three weapons storage facilities in southern Gaza over the past week that were intended for use against Israeli troops operating in the area.

Before those strikes, the military said it issued advance warnings to civilians and later identified Hamas terrorists attempting to remove weapons from the sites using vehicles. Israeli forces then targeted both the terrorists and the weapons, with secondary explosions observed, indicating the presence of munitions, according to the IDF.

The military said it took steps to reduce civilian harm, including issuing warnings, using precision-guided munitions and conducting aerial surveillance.


Commentary Podcast: Multipolar Disorder
FDD's Jonathan Schanzer is back to discuss yesterday's chain of events involving Hezbollah, Israel, and Iran, and the stream of contradictory media reports and remarks from admin officials. Plus, more on the miscalculations in conducting the war and what the endgame might look like, and a check in on Graham Platner.




The Free Press: Has the U.S. Lost the Iran War? | Niall Ferguson
On Sunday, the war with Iran reignited—yet again. Iran fired a ballistic missile barrage at Israel, a move that followed Israel’s targeting Hezbollah in Lebanon.

President Trump urged Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu not to strike back. But Netanyahu did anyway—prompting observers everywhere to ask: Did Bibi just defy the president? Did the two reach some other agreement behind closed doors? What does any of it tell us about the state of the U.S.-Israel relationship? And is this war winding down, or are we on the path to a protracted conflict? On Tuesday, Trump vowed to retaliate against Iran after an Apache helicopter went down near the Strait of Hormuz—demonstrating once again the precarious nature of the conflict.

Today I’m joined by Free Press columnist and historian Niall Ferguson to make sense of this moment.

We dig into the multiple rounds of negotiations aimed at ending the war, all of which have failed; the question of who holds the upper hand—Iran or the U.S.; whether the war was worth it; and if we are now in a more dangerous position than before it started.


JNS: Iran's Plan Against America Is So Much Deeper Than Most People Realize...
Why do groups like Hamas, Hezbollah and the IRGC keep claiming victory even when they've suffered devastating losses? In this episode, you'll learn how Islamist groups, Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah and their supporters interpret political divisions, public disagreements,and policy hesitation in Washington and the West. Veteran Middle East analysts Dan Diker and Khaled Abu Toameh explore why perception matters as much as military strength and why many in the region believe patience, not firepower, is often the deciding factor in victory. Whether you agree with their conclusions or not, this conversation offers a fascinating look into how the Middle East sees the West, and why understanding that perspective may be critical to understanding the conflicts shaping our world today.

CHAPTERS
00:00 Why America's Enemies Think They're Winning
02:15 The Political Signals Jihadists Are Watching
05:20 New York's Israel Parade Controversy Explained
08:45 Why Boycotts Backfire in the Middle East
11:50 Trump, Iran, and the Perception of Weakness
15:10 The Dangerous Cost of Mixed Messages
18:35 Why Survival Equals Victory for Iran, Hamas & Hezbollah
22:40 The Patience Strategy the West Doesn't Understand
27:05 Sunni and Shia: What Really Unites America's Adversaries
30:45 The Ideological Goal Behind Global Jihad
34:15 What Real Victory Looks Like in the Middle East
35:57 Abraham Accords, Coexistence & Hope for a New Middle East







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