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Friday, May 08, 2026

05/07 Links Pt1: US hits Iranian launch sites, after IRGC fires on American destroyers in Strait; Hamas operatives are being trained in Turkey to launch attacks against Israel; Four more UNRWA staff found to have kidnapped Israelis on Oct. 7

From Ian:

JPost Editorial: Israel's ability to defend itself must not be infringed upon, even if US, Iran reach a deal
Despite the pummeling Iran took during the March war, however, changing its stripes and agreeing to cast aside its nuclear aspirations aimed at leveling the Jewish state is a dubious prospect at best.

An Iranian official said the proposal was “more of a wish list than a reality.” On Wednesday, the semi-official Tasnim News Agency said the text contained “unacceptable clauses” and was propaganda “aimed at justifying Trump’s retreat from his recent hostile action.”

While Israel certainly wants an end to the war with an Iran that no longer poses a threat to its existence, what’s alarming about this process is that the government in Jerusalem seems to have no say in the process and is totally relying on Trump’s negotiating team, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, to represent its interests.

Although Israeli officials said they were unsurprised by the developments, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is likely understandably concerned over the deal at hand. He worries about the likelihood that Iran will not honor the agreement, along with the implications for Israel’s ongoing efforts to remove the Hezbollah threat from its northern border.

Whether it was a coincidence or a message that Israel is not going to let its hands be tied in Lebanon, the IDF attacked Hezbollah’s Radwan special forces in Beirut on Wednesday. This was the first attack in Lebanon’s capital in weeks, following the ceasefires with Iran on April 7 and with Hezbollah on April 17.

On Thursday, the IDF confirmed the killing of Hezbollah’s Radwan commander in Beirut, Ahmed Ghaleb Balout, who had directed dozens of attacks against Israeli soldiers in southern Lebanon during the war, including anti-tank missile fire and explosive-device attacks.

Balout was also working to rebuild Radwan’s capabilities, including Hezbollah’s long-planned “Conquer the Galilee” invasion plan, the IDF said, adding that it would continue acting against threats to Israeli civilians and troops.

That’s the crux of the matter. An agreement between the US and Iran could theoretically weaken Tehran’s proxy in Lebanon, Hezbollah. But it’s far from a foregone conclusion.

That’s why, along with the impression that the Lebanese government appears unwilling or unable to do anything about Hezbollah, Israel must maintain the freedom to act to safeguard the North – even if it results in a diplomatic conflict with Trump and the US.
WSJ Editorial: U.S. Red Lines in the Deal with the Iranian Regime
In nuclear talks, the Iranians are reviewing a U.S. framework which, if accepted, would lead to 30-day negotiations on a detailed agreement. From our discussions with senior officials, here's where U.S. red lines stand in the talks:
The U.S. says it needs Iran's attestation that it doesn't seek nuclear weapons; the dismantlement of the Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan facilities; a ban on underground nuclear work; and on-demand inspections with penalties for violations. The U.S. seeks a 20-year moratorium on Iranian nuclear enrichment and demands the handover of all enriched nuclear material.

Iran would have to reopen Hormuz - gradually, as the U.S. relaxes its blockade, and then fully with the final deal. Most U.S. sanctions relief would be tied to Iran's performance of the deal, not merely its signing, though some assets could be unfrozen to begin.

Dismantlement is more important than any "moratorium" on enrichment, which the U.S. and Israel have already stopped by force. Iran can't enrich now, and while that should be banned permanently, with this regime it's essential to remove facilities and capabilities.

Iran would love to focus solely on its 440 kg. of 60%-enriched uranium. The regime's 20% stockpile may sound less dangerous, but reaching that level is already 90% of the way to weapons-grade. It, too, has to go. The regime has thousands of kg. of uranium enriched to 5% and lower, a solid basis to restart a nuclear program if left in Iran.
Clifford D. May: For Iran's True Believers, a Serious Peace Deal Is Out of the Question
During a Senate hearing, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand told Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth why she is so vehemently opposed to the use of military force to address the threat posed by Tehran: "We did not have any evidence that Iran intended to imminently attack this country in any way, shape, or form!"

How odd of her not to reckon with the fact that by the time we had such evidence, it might well have been too late to do anything about it. Or maybe no evidence would come to light, and the attack would emerge from a clear blue sky as happened on Sept. 11, 2001.

Since 1979, "Death to America!" has been the openly stated - and regularly chanted - policy of Iran's self-proclaimed "Islamic revolutionaries" and their terrorist proxies. Prior to the June 2025 air campaign against Iran's nuclear sites, Iran's rulers "could have built a nuclear weapon with near certainty in less than six months," according to David Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security. Is that not imminent enough?

When someone says he intends to kill you, it's essential to take him seriously. Former Iranian President Rafsanjani threatened that "the use of even one nuclear bomb inside Israel will destroy everything." Iran's rulers see themselves as jihadis fighting a holy war against the enemies of Allah. They can contemplate temporary ceasefires, periods of calm that allow them to rearm for the next battle. But a serious "peace deal" would be out of the question.


Oct. 7 Was a Psychological Awakening
After the Hamas-led massacre of 1,200 people on Oct. 7, 2023, it's no longer possible to speak about defensible borders in purely military or cartographic terms. A border is not truly defensible if the people living behind it do not believe that it can protect them. It is not defensible if parents cannot send their children to school without calculating the range of anti-tank missiles. It is not defensible if entire communities remain displaced for months, uncertain whether returning home is an act of resilience or an act of recklessness.

Most importantly, it is not defensible if citizens believe the enemy's ultimate goal is their total destruction and elimination. This is the reality now facing Israel's citizens. A psychological border is the line between a society that feels protected and a society that feels exposed. It is the internal frontier of public trust, civic endurance and collective confidence. Once that frontier is breached, concrete walls and sophisticated sensors are not enough.

Oct. 7 was a psychological awakening. Israelis all identified with each other. They understood that no one in the country is immune from the threat posed by enemies who live by a code of jihad or a national consciousness that refuses to recognize their right to exist.

For many outside observers, the Arab-Israeli conflict is still understood primarily as a territorial dispute. The assumption is that if the right lines are drawn, the right guarantees are issued and the right diplomatic pressure is applied, then stability can be restored. But this view underestimates the ideological nature of the threats Israel faces, especially from jihadist and Islamist movements that do not see the conflict as a negotiable disagreement over borders, but as a struggle over Israel's very legitimacy and existence.

In ordinary territorial conflicts, compromise can be a strategic endpoint. In jihadist frameworks, compromise is often viewed as temporary, tactical or illegitimate. Withdrawal may create space for rearmament, indoctrination and the next assault. Hamas turned Gaza into a fortified terror enclave after Israel's withdrawal in 2005.

Ballistic missiles threaten every corner of Israel. This is why Israelis need a new security reality. They need to know that the ability of Hizbullah, Hamas, Iran and Palestinians in Judea and Samaria to threaten their homes, schools and roads has been decisively reduced.

Any diplomatic arrangement that looks acceptable in Washington or Brussels, but is not trusted by the people who must live next to eliminationist forces, will not be sustainable. Diplomacy is essential, but diplomacy that ignores psychological reality will not produce security. Israel is seeking the minimum condition for national life: the ability of citizens to live securely in their own homes.
Khaled Abu Toameh: Hamas is Humiliating Trump's 'Board of Peace'
Expecting Hamas to disarm voluntarily is like expecting ISIS or Al-Qaeda to renounce jihad (holy war) and become peaceful political movements.

[D]espite these repeated rejections, the "Board of Peace" continues its embarrassing efforts to negotiate with Hamas over the surrender of its weapons. The entire spectacle has become surreal. Instead of confronting Hamas with meaningful consequences, the international mediators appear to be pleading with the terrorist group to cooperate.

The mediators, especially Qatar, Egypt and Turkey -- all of which maintain direct channels with Hamas and present themselves as key brokers in the negotiations -- also deserve scrutiny. These countries, unsurprisingly, are not exerting serious pressure on Hamas to disarm.

For Hamas, armed "resistance" is not negotiable: it is the group's very reason for existence.

The failure of Trump's Gaza plan is now becoming increasingly difficult to hide.

The continued failure to enforce disarmament damages US credibility throughout the Middle East. America now appears unable to impose its own conditions even after using repeated threats and ultimatums to Hamas. America's allies are watching closely, as are Iran and its other terror proxies.

Trump's "Board of Peace" should stop humiliating itself by chasing fantasies about Hamas moderation. The longer the negotiations continue without results, the stronger Hamas appears -- and the weaker the US appears.
Orde F. Kittrie: The Dangerous Failure to Hold Hamas Accountable for Using Human Shields
Dangerous Precedent for Future Conflicts
The implications of the UN, ICC, and ICJ disregarding Hamas’ incessant use of human shields, let alone the central role of human shields in Hamas’ strategic planning and goals, extend well beyond Gaza. The Islamic State, the Taliban, and Libyan, Serbian, and Iraqi forces have all previously used human shields in conflict with NATO and U.S. forces.

In 2019, NATO Supreme Allied Commander Gen. Curtis Scaparrotti formally warned the alliance’s political and military decision-making bodies that NATO’s adversaries “have not hesitated to use the prohibited practice of human shields” as it forces NATO troops “to choose between not taking action against legitimate military targets or seeing their actions, and the overall mission, delegitimized.” He urged NATO states to strengthen national enforcement of the prohibition, including through criminalization, sanctions, and prosecutions.

Little to nothing has been done to implement Scaparrotti’s recommendations. No sanctions have been imposed pursuant to a U.S. law, enacted in 2018, which mandates sanctions against individuals involved in human shields use by Hamas or Hezbollah. Other NATO states lack comparable sanctions regimes, and there have been no documented European or Canadian convictions for human shields use, even though several NATO member states have the requisite universal jurisdiction laws to prosecute war crimes, including human shields use, even when the crime was committed abroad, by a perpetrator who is not a national of that state, against a victim who is not a national of that state.

The risk of continued inaction is considerable. If human shielding was so successful when deployed against Israel by Hamas with its relatively limited information operations, imagine how impactful it would be if wielded against Western militaries by the People’s Republic of China, with its immense media access to Western citizens and considerable disdain for the law of armed conflict.

The UN, ICC, and ICJ’s disregard of terrorist groups’ use of human shields has spurred a backlash among some American leaders. In his confirmation hearing, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, specifically citing terrorist groups’ impunity for “us[ing] civilians as human shields,” opposed both “burdensome rules of engagement that make it impossible for us to win these wars” and subjecting the U.S. military to the dictates of the UN, ICC, and ICJ.

The United States benefits from the international rule of law, especially when it comes to war, in which a race to the bottom would be horrific. Future U.S. and allied warfighters would benefit greatly from an initiative now to end impunity for human shields use.

A Path Forward
The U.S. and its allies should robustly implement the NATO supreme allied commander’s recommendations for national actions to counter shields use. They should also cooperate to ensure that the UN, ICC, and ICJ stop disregarding Hamas’ use of human shields.

The United States is the UN system’s largest financial contributor. In February 2025, President Trump ordered a review of U.S. funding of UN bodies that “act contrary to the interests of the United States while attacking our allies and propagating anti-Semitism.” The U.S. has three times previously used budgetary leverage to extract significant UN reforms. Ensuring that the UN starts addressing Hamas’ human shields use should be a top priority for the U.S.’s current budgetary leverage.

The persistent failure of the UN, ICC, and ICJ to address Hamas’ incessant, systematic, and strategic use of human shields has undermined both the overall credibility of these institutions and the accuracy of their legal and factual assessments of the Gaza war. It has also incentivized other terrorist groups, as well as authoritarian militaries, to increase their use of human shields in future conflicts. Correcting this failure—through targeted sanctions, criminal accountability, and reform of these international institutions—is essential not only for addressing the Gaza conflict but also for protecting U.S. and allied warfighters, and minimizing civilian harm, in future wars. If human shielding continues to pay strategic dividends, it will be used more often, with predictably catastrophic consequences for civilians caught in the middle.
Hamas operatives are being trained in Turkey to launch attacks against Israel
Hamas terrorists have been conducting training in areas of Turkey, Israel's public broadcaster KAN News reported on Thursday.

The operatives, who wear civilian clothing, regularly participate in training sessions on the use of small arms and tactics at public shooting clubs, as well as training in drone operations. They have even received official licenses to fly drones in Turkey, the report said.

The goal is reportedly to complete their training before transferring them to Lebanon, Jordan, and the West Bank in order to carry out attacks in future conflicts with Israel.

This is by no means the first instance of coordination between Turkey and Hamas.

Israel clamps down on Iran-backed Hamas money-laundering network in Turkey
Last December, the IDF and Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) exposed an Iranian-sponsored money laundering network run by Hamas in Turkey.

According to an IDF statement, documents from the organization indicated that Hamas operates a network of money exchange involving Gazans located in Turkey, utilizing the country's financial institutions for terroristic purposes.
Why Iran does not collapse after leadership change
As tensions in Iran continue to rise following recent interventions by the United States and Israel, questions are emerging over whether the country could descend into an Iraq-style scenario after a possible regime change. But how realistic is that comparison, and to what extent is this narrative shaped by international framing?

The idea that Iran could fragment like Iraq may seem logical at first glance; however, it overlooks the actual structure of Iranian society and the Iranian state.

Unlike Iraq or Syria, Iranian society is not defined by deep ethnic or religious fault lines that have historically led to large-scale internal conflict. Despite its cultural and ethnic diversity, Iran’s social fabric is largely shaped by a shared history and longstanding cultural traditions, contributing to a strong sense of national identity among Iranians.

Iran is dominated by a young population that, unlike previous generations, no longer broadly supports the ideology of the regime. Public dissatisfaction has existed for decades, and calls for intervention are increasingly coming from within the country itself.

At the same time, the regime has spent years promoting the narrative that regime change would inevitably lead to chaos and civil war. Increasingly, however, Iranians appear to reject the regime’s official narrative and are searching for political alternatives without abandoning their Iranian identity.

The primary tensions in Iran are directed toward the regime itself, rather than between completely fractured armed population groups.

Iran’s history shows a country that has endured invasions, wars and major battles without losing its core identity. That historical continuity is still reflected today in a strong national consciousness. Michael Axworthy, author of A History of Iran: Empire of the Mind, describes Iran as a civilization marked by remarkable resilience.
U.S. to Ease Iran Naval Blockade only if Revolutionary Guards Agree to Deal
Diplomatic sources say the Iranian political echelon conducting negotiations with the U.S. submitted a proposal under which the U.S. would release frozen Iranian funds to finance imports of basic goods, pay salaries and address collapsing infrastructure, in exchange for setting a one-month negotiation framework based on concessions on the nuclear issue. Some reports on Arab networks included a willingness to hand over enriched uranium and refrain from enrichment on Iranian soil for many years.

However, the White House refuses to open the Strait of Hormuz to Iranian ships and tankers until there is a guarantee that agreements reached by the political echelon will not be canceled by commanders of the Revolutionary Guards, including the terms on the nuclear issue.

Other substantial points of dispute include the payment Iran is demanding from ships that pass through the strait, the issue of missiles, and support for regional terrorist organizations. Therefore, this is not yet a real foundation for a full agreement to end the fighting, but only the beginning of the process.

Sources say Iran is pressing mainly on the financial aspects due to the collapsing Iranian economy, and that the dispute with the Americans concerns which entity in Iran will receive the funds. The Americans are demanding that the government and the president manage the released money, but Iran says this is an internal decision.
US hits Iranian launch sites, after Islamic Republic fires on American destroyers in Hormuz Strait
U.S. forces engaged with Iranian attackers in the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, after three U.S. guided missile destroyers came under fire in the strait.

“Three world-class American destroyers just transited, very successfully, out of the Strait of Hormuz, under fire,” stated U.S. President Donald Trump. “There was no damage done to the three destroyers, but great damage done to the Iranian attackers. They were completely destroyed along with numerous small boats, which are being used to take the place of their fully decapitated navy.”

“Missiles were shot at our destroyers and were easily knocked down,” he said. “Likewise, drones came and were incinerated while in the air. They dropped ever so beautifully down to the ocean, very much like a butterfly dropping to its grave.”

U.S. Central Command called the Iranian attacks “unprovoked.”

“Iranian forces launched multiple missiles, drones and small boats as USS Truxtun, USS Rafael Peralta and USS Mason transited the international sea passage,” CENTCOM said. “No U.S. assets were struck.”

U.S. Central Command said that its forces “eliminated inbound threats and targeted Iranian military facilities responsible for attacking U.S. forces, including missile and drone launch sites, command and control locations and intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance nodes.”

It added that it “does not seek escalation but remains positioned and ready to protect American forces.”

The attacks came as U.S. forces continue a military blockade on the strait during a ceasefire period, pending a possible deal with Iran.

“They are led by lunatics,” Trump said, of Iranian regime leaders. “If they had the chance to use a nuclear weapon, they would do it without question. But they’ll never have that opportunity and just like we knocked them out again today, we’ll knock them out a lot harder and a lot more violently in the future if they don’t get their deal signed, fast.”

Trump added that the three destroyers will rejoin the blockade, which he called a “wall of steel.”
U.S. Set Up a "Red, White and Blue Dome" over Strait of Hormuz
Secretary of War Pete Hegseth said hundreds of commercial ships are lining up to leave the Strait of Hormuz as the U.S. has erected a "red, white and blue dome" over the corridor, which has been largely closed off by Iran since the start of the war. "Iran's plan, a form of international extortion, is unacceptable," Hegseth said Tuesday.

"As a direct gift from the U.S. to the world...American destroyers are on station, supported by hundreds of fighter jets, helicopters, drones and surveillance aircraft providing 24/7 overwatch for peaceful commercial vessels, except Iran's."

Gen. Dan Caine, chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said 22,500 mariners aboard more than 1,550 commercial vessels were trapped in the Persian Gulf, which he called the Arabian Gulf. He said 15,000 American service members were involved in creating an "enhanced security area" on the southern side of the Strait of Hormuz intended to ensure safe passage for commercial vessels.

"Out there on the surface, guided-missile destroyers and other warships are detecting and defeating Iranian threats. This includes fast boats and one-way attack drones. In the air, more than 100 fighters - attack aircraft and other manned and unmanned aircraft, synchronized by the 82nd Airborne Division - are in the air 24 hours a day, providing defensive overwatch for the enhanced security area and its approaches."


Four more UNRWA staff — including teachers — found to have kidnapped Israelis on Oct. 7, as feds weigh criminal charges
A US government watchdog has found at least four more staffers for the United Nations’ Palestinian refugee aid agency “kidnapped” Israelis and aided Hamas’ terror attack on Oct. 7, 2023, information that is likely to feed into a federal criminal probe, sources told The Post.

The USAID Office of Inspector General, in an April 30 investigative summary, cited “four additional current or former staff” at the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees, three of whom were teachers and one of whom was a social worker.

The unnamed staffers were “alleged to have participated in the holding of civilian hostages kidnapped from Israel and/or the terrorist activities in Israel on October 7, 2023,” the summary stated.

More than 100 UNRWA officials are being investigated by the IG’s office — with evidence now supporting at least 21 were affiliated with Hamas or participated in the terror group’s massacre of 1,200 in the Jewish state, including 46 US citizens. More than 250 hostages were also taken back to the Gaza Strip.

“The recent investigation by the USAID IG confirms that the UN is deficient in vetting its own staff for ties to terrorist organizations,” a senior State Department official told The Post.

“As the UN itself doesn’t consider Hamas a terrorist organization, both UN agencies and local NGOs [non-governmental organizations] may still hire Hamas-affiliated staff that place programs at high risk for diversion. This will not be tolerated.”

All 21 UNRWA staffers have since been proposed for suspension or debarment from receiving federal funds for the next decade. Past USAID OIG reports have called out the risk of hundreds of millions of dollars in US taxpayer funding to the UN agency being diverted to terror groups.

In response to the IG probe’s findings, Department of Justice senior counsel Leo Terrell also posted on X of the four most recent employees flagged for Hamas ties: “Jail them!”


Call me Back: Epic Fury has ended, now what? - with Ed Husain and Nadav Eyal
The Iran war is coming to an end. What leverage do Israel and the U.S. have for what comes next?

Dan Senor is joined by Ed Husain and Nadav Eyal to unpack the fragile aftermath of the U.S.-Israel war with Iran. As Washington signals that the operation is over, Iran is still testing the Strait of Hormuz, its nuclear program remains unresolved, and the regime’s internal fractures may now matter as much as its military capabilities. They discuss what Iran thinks it has won, what the U.S. and Israel actually achieved, and whether the next front is no longer the battlefield, but inside Iran itself.

Read Ed’s article, Iran is Not a Monolith: The Case for Exploiting the Country’s Internal Fractures

In this episode:
02:42 - What “the operation is over” actually means
06:09 - Iran’s strategy at the Strait of Hormuz
08:42 - Why Tehran may believe it won the war
13:21 - What remains of Iran’s nuclear program
20:15 - Why economic pressure may not be enough
20:54 - The IRGC’s grip on the regime
29:24 - Can Iran’s internal fractures bring down the regime?
34:18 - Israel’s return to a shadow-war strategy
34:51 - The regional alliance needed after the war
38:42 - What the U.S. must do to avoid a nuclear Iran and a closed strait


Commentary Podcast: Iran Impasse
FDD's Jonathan Schanzer joins us today to try and make sense of the latest developments in the Iran war and the implications to the larger global balance of power in advance of Trump's summit with Xi Jinping, and how all this impacts Israel's efforts in the region. Plus, the disturbing trend of insider trading on betting markets, and John recommends Nicholas Lemann's Returning.




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