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Friday, May 01, 2026

05/01 Links Pt1: Trump ‘not satisfied’ with latest Iranian proposal to end war; The Gaza Numbers Debate: Who Was Right?; The World's Shameful Silence on Hamas

From Ian:

Trump ‘not satisfied’ with latest Iranian proposal to end war
U.S. President Donald Trump told reporters at the White House on Friday that he is “not satisfied” with Iran’s latest proposal to end the ongoing conflict.

“They want to make a deal, but I don’t. I’m not satisfied with it, so we’ll see what happens,” Trump said. “Iran wants to make a deal, because they have no military left.”

“They’re asking for things that I can’t agree to,” he added.

Iran sent the proposal through mediators on Thursday, though details remain unclear. “They want to make a deal so badly, but they’re not there yet,” Trump told reporters. “In my opinion, they’re not there.”

“Do you want to go blast the hell out of ’em and finish them forever, or do we want to try and make a deal?” he said.

The president added that he’d prefer not to continue military strikes. “On a human basis, I’d prefer not, but that’s the option,” he told reporters.

Asked if he was considering new strikes on Iran, Trump said, “Why would I tell you that?

“Right now, we have negotiations going on,” the president said. “They’re not getting there. They are very disjointed. They’re extremely disjointed. They’re not able to get along with each other as leaders. They don’t know who the leader is.”

Trump noted that this puts the United States “in a bad position,” because separate groups in Iranian leadership want different deals.

The president dismissed the need for congressional authorization for further U.S. military action against Iran, arguing that other presidents have considered the War Powers Resolution “unconstitutional” and “exceeded” the law’s 60-day limit. Trump added that the current ceasefire reset the timeline.


US pulling 5,000 troops from Germany amid spat with Trump over Iran war
The United States is withdrawing 5,000 troops from NATO ally Germany, the Pentagon announced on Friday, as a rift over the Iran war widens between US President Donald Trump and Europe.

Trump had threatened a drawdown in forces earlier this week after sparring with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who said on Monday the Iranians were humiliating the US in talks to end the two-month-old war and that he did not see what exit strategy Washington was pursuing.

A senior Pentagon official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said recent German rhetoric had been “inappropriate and unhelpful.”

“The president is rightly reacting to these counterproductive remarks,” the official said.

The Pentagon said the withdrawal was expected to be completed over the next six to 12 months. Germany is home to some 35,000 active-duty US military personnel, more than anywhere else in Europe.

The official said the drawdown would bring US troop levels in Europe back to roughly pre-2022 levels, before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine triggered a buildup by then-president Joe Biden.

The official also cast the decision in terms of the Trump administration’s push for Europe to become the main security provider on the continent. But it is nonetheless another potent reminder of Trump’s willingness to respond to perceived disloyalty by allies.
IDF official says Iran war will be ‘one big failure’ if enriched uranium not removed
A senior Israeli military official said on Friday that if Iran’s stockpile of more than 400 kilograms of highly enriched uranium is not removed from the country in the wake of the recent war, the campaign could be considered “one big failure.”

Israeli officials have said that this stockpile is sufficient for 11 nuclear bombs if enriched further. Iran has long maintained that its program is peaceful, despite enriching uranium at near-weapons-grade levels.

Israel launched its campaign against Iran on February 28, alongside the United States, to degrade the Iranian regime’s military capabilities, distance threats posed by Iran — including its nuclear and ballistic missile programs — and “create the conditions” for the Iranian people to topple the regime, the military and other Israeli leaders have said.

The senior officer said that if, under the ongoing negotiations between the US and Iran, no agreement is reached to remove the uranium stockpile and halt enrichment in the country, the achievements of the 40 days of fighting will have been for nothing.

“If the nuclear objective is not achieved, then everything we did in Iran will be one big failure. The evil Iranian regime can pounce on the nuclear program,” the official said during a briefing for reporters, speaking on condition of anonymity.

The officer added that “if the uranium is removed from Iran through diplomatic means, we have done our part.” However, if that does not happen, Israel would need to launch another operation in Iran to achieve the objective.


Comedy Cellar USA: The Gaza Numbers Debate: Who Was Right? | Salo @Aizenberg55
Today we had Salo Aizenberg on to talk through one of the most difficult and contentious subjects of the war: Gaza casualty numbers, what Hamas reports, what the UN repeats, what the media accepts, and what can actually be known.

We get into the dispute over total deaths, civilian/combatant ratios, natural deaths, starvation claims, Hamas’s use of human shields, fighters posing as journalists, and the larger genocide accusation against Israel. We also talk about Ken Roth, Omer Bartov, Netanyahu’s statements, proportionality, Hamas not wearing uniforms, and why so much of this debate turns on whether people are willing to ask the next obvious question.

Chapters:
00:00 Intro and the Cary Elwes photo controversy
08:09 Salo Aizenberg joins: Gaza casualty numbers and the early Hamas reporting
18:36 The “70% women and children” claim, statistical challenges, and UN revisions
22:21 Removed names, natural deaths, false claims, and what the Gaza lists may actually include
34:22 Why civilian/combatant ratios matter, and why “how they died” matters even more
41:57 Hamas’s strategy, human shields, uniforms, and Israel’s security dilemma
50:10 Starvation, famine claims, malnutrition deaths, and the fight over what’s true
56:11 Salo’s current view of the Gaza death numbers
58:17 Gaza “journalists,” Hamas/PIJ fighters, martyr notices, and open-source evidence
01:03:44 Genocide accusations, Ken Roth, Omer Bartov, Netanyahu’s statements, and proportionality
01:13:05 Hostages, ceasefire logic, one-state fantasies, Jewish psychology, and the broader Israel debate
01:19:30 Settler violence, Israel’s own mistakes, and wrap-up


The great disconnect: Why Israel is losing America while winning in Iran
The strategic communications battlefield
How did a president who is arguably one of the greatest “media masters” of all time, who has praised Israel “left and right,” end up presiding over a rapidly shrinking pool of public popularity for America’s best ally? The reasons suggest that Israel is losing a “long game” played by its detractors who are now enjoying the fruits of their labors.

Is it the money and influence of Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Russia, and China that is tipping the scales? Qatar is not merely a wealthy diplomatic player. It owns and funds one of the most effective propaganda machines in the world: Al Jazeera.

The network says it reaches more than 430 million homes in over 150 countries; by comparison, CNN averaged about 573,000 US primetime viewers in 2025, while Fox News averaged around 2-3 million depending on the period measured. That is not a normal media imbalance. It is a strategic communications battlefield, and it is one where Israel is currently outgunned and outmaneuvered.

While Israel is a leading hi-tech partner keeping America at the edge, its adversaries are winning the war of narratives in the palm of the American voter’s hand.

The Democratic Party has moved so far that some factions appear competitive with Hezbollah in their anti-Israel stance. But when even the Republican Party, beyond just the isolationist fringes of Tucker Carlson or Candace Owens, shows a “dramatic” drop-off in support, the alarm bells should be deafening.

The Narrative Deficit
We cannot ignore the personal impact of leadership or the shift in moral framing. Benjamin Netanyahu’s favorability has plummeted to a net plus 2 among young Republicans, a ghost of the plus 40 favorability he enjoys with those over 35.

For many young Americans, the decline in support for the nation of Israel is inextricably tied to their negative view of its prime minister, which is being further undermined by his detractors at home.

Furthermore, the next great test may not be Gaza or Iran, but Lebanon. If Israel concludes that it has no choice but to do in Lebanon what it was forced to do in Gaza, dismantle embedded Iranian proxy infrastructure inside civilian areas, the military logic may be sound, but the media framing will be brutal.

Major Western outlets will not lead with Hezbollah’s strategic entrenchment; they will lead with destruction, displacement, and civilian suffering. Israel may again win the battlefield while losing the screen.

A house divided and exported
And this pressure will only intensify as Israel moves toward elections. Every domestic Israeli argument, hostage policy, Gaza, Lebanon, Iran, judicial reform, Netanyahu, the opposition, the role of the IDF, the role of the courts, will be exported instantly into the American media ecosystem.

Israel’s internal political divisions will not remain internal. They will become content, ammunition, and narrative fuel in the US battle over Israel’s legitimacy.

This generational decline is both a result of and a catalyst for a much wider, more visceral debate in America about nationalism and whether US interests remain compatible with its old alliance commitments.

Young Republicans are moving in a direction that is less automatically pro-Israel and more conditional, cost-conscious, and suspicious of elite foreign-policy consensus. If the “special relationship” is only special to the ambassadors and the generals, but a burden to the taxpayers and the youth, it will not survive the decade.

Israel may be winning with Washington, with the Pentagon, and even on the Iran battlefield. But if it loses the American public, especially the rising, influential next generation of Republicans, it may discover too late that strategic victory without narrative legitimacy is only a temporary victory.

Therefore, the Trump administration and the Israeli government must prioritize this issue and find a way to speak to the “America First” generation, or the “special relationship” may soon become a relic of the past.
Tikvah Podcast: Dr. Raphael BenLevi on Ending U.S. Aid to Israel
In the spring of 2026, Israel and the United States conducted joint offensive military operations against Iran: coordinating targets, dividing airspace, and operating with a degree of integration that has no precedent in the history of the alliance. The operation significantly degraded Iran's military capabilities, and it marked what many analysts regard as a genuine turning point, not just in the regional balance of power, but in the nature of the American-Israeli relationship itself. For decades, that relationship had been structured as a powerful patron supporting a dependent client. What the Iran war suggested to some observers is that Israel has—at least in part—outgrown that structure.

That is the backdrop for a debate that is now live in both Jerusalem and Washington: what should American military aid to Israel look like when the current memorandum of understanding between the two countries expires in 2028? The U.S. currently provides Israel with approximately $3.5 billion annually in grants, earmarked for the purchase of American-made military equipment—an arrangement that dates to the aftermath of the Yom Kippur War and that has been renewed, and periodically enlarged, ever since. For most of that period, the case for the aid seemed self-evident. First the Arab states, and then Iran and its proxies, were actively threatening Israel's existence. American military and diplomatic support was an indispensable buttress of Israel's security. Whether that case remains self-evident today, in the wake of a war that has significantly diminished Iranian capabilities, is now a serious question being debated by Israelis and Americans of good faith, with thoughtful arguments on multiple sides.

In this episode, Mosaic's editor Jonathan Silver speaks with a proud Israeli patriot who has been making the case for ending American aid for some time. Dr. Raphael BenLevi is a senior fellow at the Misgav Institute for National Security and Zionist Strategy, director of the Churchill Program for Statecraft and Security at the Argaman Institute in Jerusalem, a reserve officer in the IDF intelligence branch, and an occasional contributor to Mosaic. He recently published an essay in Foreign Affairs titled "America Should Be Israel's Partner, Not Its Patron."


Call me Back Podcast: ISRAEL VOTES: A Political Shakeup in Israel? - with Amit Segal and Nadav Eyal
Bennett and Lapid unite, but does it change anything?

On Sunday, without any prior warning, Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announced they’re joining forces, launching a new unified party called “Beyachad” — “together.” The move comes months ahead of Israel’s October elections, and it immediately raises more questions than answers.

What are they really trying to accomplish? Does this strengthen the anti-Netanyahu bloc — or unintentionally weaken it? And what does it mean for Gadi Eisenkot, who leads the other centrist party and is being pressured by Bennett to join him and Lapid?

This is already shaping up to be one of the most dramatic election cycles in Israel’s history — and one the Jewish diaspora will be watching more closely than ever.

In this episode:
Bennett and Lapid's history
Bennett's theory of the race
The role of the war in the elections
Structural strengths and weaknesses of both blocks
Gadi Eisenkot's next move
Avigdor Lieberman's strategy


Palestinian soccer chief refuses handshake with Israeli official at FIFA Congress in Canada
Palestinian Football Association President Jibril Rajoub refused to stand alongside Israel Football Association Vice President Basim Sheikh Suliman during a tense moment at the FIFA Congress in Vancouver on Thursday.

Suliman is an Arab-Israeli official who represents Israeli soccer in international forums such as FIFA and UEFA, where he has taken part in discussions involving Israeli and Palestinian soccer relations.

Both officials were invited to the stage by FIFA President Gianni Infantino, who attempted to bring them together. Rajoub declined to move closer to Suliman despite Infantino placing a hand on his arm and gesturing for him to do so, Reuters reported.

Infantino sought to defuse the situation, telling the audience: “We will work together, President Rajoub, Vice President Suliman. Let’s work together to give hope to the children. These are complex matters.”

Rajoub said afterward, according to Reuters, “From my side, I still respect and follow the legal procedure, but I think it’s time to understand that Israel should be sanctioned. The double-standard policy should stop. ... I think Gianni has the right to try to bridge gaps and bring people together but I think maybe he does not understand or does not know the deep suffering of the Palestinian people.”

The incident comes amid an ongoing dispute between the Palestinian FA and FIFA over Israeli clubs operating in Judea and Samaria. FIFA said last month it would not take action against Israel, citing the unresolved legal status of the territory under international law.


US approves arms sales of over $8.6 billion for Israel and other Mideast allies
The US State Department said on Friday it was approving military sales totaling over $8.6 billion to Middle Eastern allies Israel, Qatar, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates.

The announcements came as the US and Israel’s war against Iran marked nine weeks since its start and more than three weeks since a fragile ceasefire came into effect.

Friday’s announcements by the State Department included approving military sales to Qatar of Patriot air and missile defense replenishment services costing $4.01 billion and of Advanced Precision Kill Weapon Systems (APKWS) — a laser-guided weapons kit — costing $992.4 million.

They also included approval of the sale to Kuwait of an integrated battle command system costing $2.5 billion and to Israel of Advanced Precision Kill Weapon Systems costing $992.4 million.

The State Department approved a sale to the UAE of APKWS for $147.6 million.

The principal contractor in the APKWS sales to Qatar, Israel, and the UAE was BAE Systems, the State Department said.

RTX and Lockheed Martin were the principal contractors in the integrated battle command system sale to Kuwait and in the Patriot air and missile defense replenishment sale to Qatar, the State Department added.

Northrop Grumman was also a principal contractor in the Kuwaiti sale.

Meanwhile, Washington has warned European allies, including the UK, Poland, Lithuania, and Estonia, to expect long delivery delays for US weapons as the war against Iran drains stockpiles, the Financial Times reported, citing people familiar with the matter.


Hezbollah drones wound 4 troops; IDF urges civilians to leave south Lebanon town
The IDF on Friday issued an evacuation warning for the southern Lebanese town of Habboush, near Nabatieh, after four Israeli soldiers were lightly wounded by Hezbollah drones in southern Lebanon and northern Israel.

Meanwhile, Lebanese state media reported that at least four people were killed, including a woman, in Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon on Friday afternoon. The IDF did not immediately comment.

Writing on X, IDF spokesman Col. Avichay Adraee called on Habboush residents to move at least a kilometer (0.6 miles) away from the town.

“In light of the Hezbollah terror organization’s violations of the ceasefire agreement, the IDF is forced to act against it with force and does not intend to harm you,” Adraee said.

The warning came soon after two IDF reservists were wounded in a Hezbollah drone attack near the northern Israeli border community of Misgav Am.

The two were taken to a hospital, and their families were notified. The IDF said it was investigating the attack, which it called “a violation of the ceasefire understandings by the Hezbollah terror group.”

Two other soldiers were wounded in a Hezbollah explosive drone attack in southern Lebanon on Friday morning, the military said, adding that they were taken to a hospital and their families were notified.

In separate incidents on Friday, Hezbollah also fired a rocket and an explosive drone that struck near Israeli forces stationed in southern Lebanon, the military said. Another Hezbollah drone was intercepted by the Israeli Air Force over an area of southern Lebanon where troops were deployed, according to the IDF, which said no soldiers were wounded in any of the incidents.

Earlier Friday, the Israeli Air Force also intercepted at least four Hezbollah drones, one of which crossed the border into Israel and triggered sirens in the northern community of Rosh Hanikra.


EylON the Record: Why Jordan Could Be Israel’s Most Dangerous Blind Spot | Aaron Magid
Israel’s longest border is also its quietest. But how stable is that quiet really?

In this episode of EylON the Record, Eylon Levy speaks with Aaron Magid, author of The Most American King: Abdullah of Jordan, about Israel’s cold peace with Jordan, the fragility beneath the 1994 peace treaty, and why instability in the Hashemite Kingdom would have serious consequences for Israel, the region, and the West.

In this episode, we discuss:
• Why Jordan remains one of Israel’s most important security partners despite hostile public opinion
• How King Abdullah has kept the peace treaty intact under pressure from the Jordanian street
• The role of American aid, Israeli water and gas, and Jordanian security cooperation
• Why the Muslim Brotherhood, Iran, and Palestinian politics make Jordan a critical strategic front

Beyond the headlines, this conversation is about the danger of assuming quiet borders are permanent. Jordan’s monarchy has weathered crises before, but Israel cannot afford to mistake silence for stability or cold peace for real normalization.

๐ŸŽฏ Key moment: “Two thirds of Jordanians supported the Hamas initiative.”

00:00 Understanding Jordan's Strategic Importance to Israel
05:09 The Dynamics of the Israel-Jordan Peace Treaty
07:54 Jordan's Internal Politics and Public Sentiment
10:44 The Role of King Abdullah and the Monarchy
13:26 The Palestinian Influence in Jordan
16:05 Recent Developments in Israeli-Jordanian Relations
18:58 Iran's Threat and Jordan's Security Measures
21:44 The Future of Jordan-Israel Relations
36:15 Outro




Board of Peace denies plans to shut down ceasefire coordination HQ in Israel’s south
US President Donald Trump’s Board of Peace has denied a report that the US will be shutting down the Civil-Military Coordination Center (CMCC), tasked with facilitating the entry of humanitarian aid into Gaza and monitoring the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.

“Any claim that the CMCC is closing is wrong. The CMCC is advancing its efforts every day to continue delivering aid at a level unprecedented in modern history,” tweeted the official X account of the Board of Peace, a US-led international body responsible for overseeing the postwar management of Gaza.

Earlier Friday, Reuters quoted seven unnamed sources familiar with the matter who claimed that the Trump administration will be shutting down the CMCC, which is based in the southern Israeli city of Kiryat Gat.

According to two sources quoted by Reuters, the CMCC will be folded into the planned International Stabilization Force (ISF). Subsequently, the CMCC is to be rebranded as the International Gaza Support Center and will be led by Major General Jasper Jeffers, the White House-appointed ISF commander.

The ISF was a key element in the 20-point plan announced by the White House on September 29 of last year, which led to the ceasefire as well as the return of all Israeli hostages to Israel.

According to the plan, the ISF is meant to gradually supplant IDF forces in areas the latter currently controls in Gaza, and to train and support a Palestinian police force that will provide long-term security to the Strip.
2 Gaza flotilla activists to be questioned in Israel as remainder released in Greece
Israeli authorities said that two activists who led an aid flotilla bound for Gaza were being brought to Israel as suspects on Friday, after the flotilla was intercepted by Israeli forces in international waters off Crete earlier in the week.

The other activists who had been aboard the flotilla and were detained when Israel intercepted many of the ships, some 175 people, disembarked on the Greek island on Friday.

Escorted by Greek coastguards, the activists, the majority of them nationals of European countries, were taken in four buses to the port of Atherinolakkos, in the southeast of the island, an AFP journalist saw.

As they approached the port, the activists chanted “Free Palestine,” AFP said.

The Foreign Ministry confirmed that the detained activists had been freed, except for the two being taken to Israel.

“Saif Abu Keshek, suspected of affiliation with a terrorist organization, and Thiago รvila, suspected of illegal activity, will be brought to Israel for questioning,” the ministry said in a tweet, without providing evidence.

Abu Keshek, a Palestinian-Spanish citizen, and รvila, a Brazilian citizen, are members of the Global Sumud Flotilla’s steering committee, which is behind the repeated attempts to break Israel’s naval blockade of Gaza and send in humanitarian aid.

The Israeli Navy intercepted the flotilla, comprised of 58 boats, overnight between Wednesday and Thursday off the coast of Crete, hundreds of nautical miles (over 1,000 kilometers) from Israel.


Bassam Tawil: The World's Shameful Silence on Hamas
Six months after the ceasefire went into effect in the Gaza Strip, Hamas remains firmly in power. Despite international promises, diplomatic initiatives, and the much-publicized "Board of Peace," the Iran-backed Islamist group has not disarmed, relinquished control, or moderated its behavior. Instead, it appears to be using the ceasefire as an opportunity to entrench its rule, regroup militarily, and tighten its grip on the Palestinian population.

The persistence of Hamas rule also raises serious questions about the Trump administration's policy. Why is Hamas still in power six months after the ceasefire? Why has Trump's "Board of Peace" failed to achieve its most basic objective: forcing Hamas to hand over its weapons and relinquish control over the Gaza Strip? If anything, the ceasefire has strengthened Hamas, giving it time to rearm, reorganize, and reassert control over the population.

Why is there insufficient pressure on key mediators such as Egypt and Qatar to hold Hamas accountable? What concrete steps will the Trump Administration take to ensure that Hamas does not remain the de facto ruler of the Gaza Strip?

Without decisive action, the current approach is legitimizing an Islamist terror regime, Hamas, committed to Israel's destruction, engaged in the systematic abuse of its own people, and, as the Trump Administration has seen with Iran, no intention whatever of giving up its rule.

So long as Hamas remains in power, there can be no positive future for the Gaza Strip.






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