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Sunday, March 01, 2026

Operation Epic Fury: How Long Will the World Stand With America? (Daled Amos)

By Daled Amos


The anticipated attack on Iran has begun. The general consensus was not so much focused on whether Trump was going to authorize the US attack as when. That question is no longer on the table. But even for those who considered the war a certainty, there are some surprises.

For one thing, there has been a surprising level of support for the attack among the international community. On the one hand, last month, a Quinnipiac poll found that 70% of American voters didn't want the US to take military action against Iran in response to the murder of Iranian protesters by the regime. The same amount insisted that Trump needed Congressional support first. If Americans opposed the idea in the abstract, imagine the response of other countries, especially considering the low opinion Europeans apparently have of Trump.

Yet Mark Dubowitz, CEO of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said in an interview (19:40) that there has been surprising support for Trump's decision. He noted relatively strong statements from EU officials and from the Canadian and Australian prime ministers. He also pointed to the Saudi statement condemning Iranian strikes on the UAE, Bahrain, and Kuwait.

But how long will that goodwill last?

The world's reaction to the terrorist massacre on October 7, siding with Israel, was extremely short-lived. It quickly locked onto Israel's response, using Hamas numbers and the often questionable reporting and pictures coming out of Gaza. How patient will the West be if casualties mount among the Arab states Iran is now targeting?

Andrew Fox, a former British Army officer, current research fellow at the Henry Jackson Society, and lecturer at the Royal Military Academy, pointed out Iran's continued ability to fire missiles at surrounding Arab states hosting the US military:
A broader, uncomfortable lesson emerges for everyone observing the air defence situation. It is concerning that Iran has scored successful strikes around the Gulf on targets that have had weeks to prepare their defences. Even well-equipped defence networks have vulnerabilities when faced with high volume, complexity, geography, and limited reaction time.
Iran is not picky about its targets and is likely aiming to convince Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the UAE, and others to withdraw their support for the US and Israel. And if Iran can inflict enough civilian casualties, it may replicate the world condemnation that Hamas generated. That condemnation could revolve around international law, but also could focus locally on claims of Trump's abuse of power. Fox notes:
Under international law, the justification for using force will be debated endlessly: self-defence, immediacy, proportionality, and sovereignty. Most of the world will not share Washington’s or Jerusalem’s assumptions. Domestically in the United States, the issue of authorisation is also significant: major hostilities launched without explicit congressional approval are always politically and constitutionally damaging, especially if the conflict drags on.
In his State of the Union Address, Trump pointed out Iran's nuclear threat as well as the danger of its ballistic missiles. Legal Expert Eugene Kontorovich has  weighed in on the issue, noting legal precedent and justification based on Iran's long history of animosity against the US, including assassination attempts and support for terrorism in the region:


A lot may depend on the actual length of the war. Last year, Trump declared both the start and the end of the war. Can he do that again?

One day after launching strikes on Iran that killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and embroiled the region in war, President Trump told me this morning that the country’s new leadership wants to talk with him and that he plans to do so.

“They want to talk, and I have agreed to talk, so I will be talking to them. They should have done it sooner. They should have given what was very practical and easy to do sooner. They waited too long,” Trump told me in a phone call from his Mar-a-Lago resort shortly before 9:30 a.m.

We don't know how serious Iran is about talking at this point, nor can we tell how that will affect the goal of replacing the current Islamist, terrorism-supporting regime. But the situation is a tinderbox. So far, 3 US servicemen have been killed and 5 have been seriously wounded. This is more than the number of US casualties in the 12-day war last year. That has to be a consideration, too.

The same Western governments giving support may change their mind if civilian casualties increase or if the opposition against the US and Israel gains control of the narrative. Iran could win through the erosion of support. It just needs the conflict to drag out long enough for fatigue to set in. The real question is whether the US can maintain long enough to achieve its objectives. 



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"He's an Anti-Zionist Too!" cartoon book (December 2024)

PROTOCOLS: Exposing Modern Antisemitism (February 2022)

    
 

 

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