Israel and the US destroyed Iran's path to a nuclear weapon. This seems like a big deal.

The Institute for Science and International Security, who are the unquestioned experts on Iran's nuclear and nuclear weapons programs, say that the June airstrikes by Israel and the US have effectively destroyed any possible path for Iran to build a nuclear weapon at this time,

The report, written by David Albright, Sarah Burkhard, and Andrea Stricker, says:

The military attacks destroyed or made inoperative all of Iran’s installed centrifuges—almost 22,000 gas centrifuges—at Iran’s three enrichment sites.  They destroyed Iran’s ability to make gas centrifuges, severely degraded its capabilities to research and develop them, and destroyed Iran’s ability to make uranium hexafluoride.  In essence, the attacks destroyed Iran’s gas centrifuge enrichment program.

With the massive destruction of its gas centrifuge program and installed centrifuge cascades, for the first time in over 15 years, Iran has no identifiable route to produce weapon-grade uranium (WGU) in its centrifuge plants.  In addition, the attacks caused immense destruction to Iran’s ability to make the nuclear weapon itself.  For the first time in over 15 years, no breakout estimate to WGU is included in the Institute reporting on the IAEA reports, since to do so would require unsubstantiated speculation about the existence and operability of centrifuges that were not destroyed in the war, such as centrifuges already made but not yet deployed, as well as about the availability of enriched uranium stocks, whether near five percent, near 20 percent, or 60 percent enriched uranium.

It is not all good news. The article goes on to say that even 60% enriched uranium that presumably Iran can still access can be used to create a cruder nuclear weapon. No one really spoke about this possibility that I could find until recently, with this article in the Bulletin for Atomic Scientists. 

It is unclear if such a weapon can be delivered with Iran's existing balletic missiles since it would be significantly heavier. it is equally unclear whether Iran's remaining nuclear scientists have the expertise to design this weapon with the lower enriched uranium. 

It is undoubtedly true, though, that Israel and the US set back Iran's nuclear weaponization program by years, not months, as a lot of ignorant people crowed in June. 

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