The "occupy Gaza" gambit may be paying off

Last week, I floated the idea that Netanyahu's plan to re-occupy Gaza might have been a Trumpian negotiation ploy to get a better deal from Hamas. The risk/reward ratio did not make sense otherwise, and Netanyahu is no fool. He has never shown the slightest interest in entering Israel in a permanent Vietnam-style quagmire; every decision made since the start of the war was meant for victory, and the world put constraints on (like not allowing refugees to flee or insisting on prioritizing aid in an active war zone, which is unprecedented) which has kept it going for this long. The Hezbollah and Iranian battles are far more his style. 

But in true Trump fashion, Bibi called up reserves, announced an immediate plan to occupy Gaza City, and used the world's antipathy to him as a means to make a very risky plan sound like something he would really do even though his history shows that he is a much more cautious player than his rhetoric implies. And he has used that to his advantage in the past, both domestically and internationally.

The stated plan to occupy Gaza opens up the field to allow a worse outcome for Gaza than had been seen as a possibility the week before. 

If it was a gambit, it looks like it may be paying off. Times of Israel writes:

Sky News in Arabic reports that Hamas negotiators are being presented with a new Gaza ceasefire proposal put together by Egypt and Qatar, with Turkish help, which would include an end to the war and the release of all hostages.

According to the report, the deal would see all hostages living and dead released in exchange for Palestinian prisoners, while Israel would pull its military back “under Arab-American supervision” until an agreement is reached regarding disarming Hamas and its exit from governing Gaza.

During the interim phase, Turkey and other mediators would guarantee that Hamas freeze any military activities, allowing for talks on a permanent end to the war.

The last sentence is the key:

Sky News presents the proposal as designed to “strip any excuse for occupying Gaza from [Prime Minister] Benjamin Netanyahu.”

The Arab world is convinced - against all evidence and logic - that Israel plans to conquer everything from the Nile to the Euphrates. Turkish media and leaders also routinely say that they are in Israel's expansionist crosshairs as well. When Israel says it plans to occupy what they consider Arab land, they believe it. 

Netanyahu uses their own antisemitism to Israel's advantage.

It is too early to say how Hamas will respond, but last week all the momentum was on Hamas' side - Western nations recognizing "Palestine" without putting any conditions on this recognition was the biggest political victory possible and it gave Hamas no incentive to make any concessions on hostages or its military control of Gaza. 

Bibi's plan changed the calculus completely: it added a downside for Hamas that simply didn't exist before. 

And while Hamas might want to tough it out, its sponsors are not as keen on risking "Greater Israel." 

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Buy EoZ's books  on Amazon! "He's an Anti-Zionist Too!" cartoon book (December 2024) PROTOCOLS: Exposing Modern Antisemitism (February 2022)