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Tuesday, June 24, 2025

06/24 Links Pt1: Winners and Losers of the 12-Day Israel–Iran War; The Failed Soothsayers of Armageddon; UN Nuclear Watchdog Chief: ‘Night and Day’ Difference Between Iran’s Nuclear Capabilities

From Ian:

John Spencer: Winners and Losers of the 12-Day Israel–Iran War
“War is thus an act of force to compel our enemy to do our will.” — Carl von Clausewitz War is not chaos. It is the deliberate application of force in pursuit of political objectives. Every modern conflict must be judged according to those objectives. In the 12-day war between Israel and Iran, three major actors pursued distinct goals: Israel, Iran, and the United States. Based on what can be objectively and openly assessed, Israel and the United States achieved overwhelming success at the tactical, operational, and strategic levels. Iran, while executing limited retaliation, suffered a decisive defeat. Most importantly, the world is now safer, because Iran is no longer as close to acquiring a nuclear weapon.

Israel: Precision, Superiority, and Clarity of Purpose
From the outset of Operation Rising Lion, Israel’s political objective was clear. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared on day one that Israel would no longer accept the threat of a near-term nuclear-armed Iran. Within the first 72 hours, Israel conducted one of the most sophisticated preemptive strike campaigns in modern history.

Over 300 guided munitions were launched in five synchronized waves. Israel struck dozens of critical Iranian targets including nuclear facilities, air bases, missile launchers, drone hubs, and leadership compounds. This was done while Israel was simultaneously conducting a major ground operation in Gaza, deterring Hezbollah and defending its own civilians from daily missile attacks.

Israel did more than strike deep. It dominated Iranian skies. The Israeli Air Force operated freely over Iranian territory. No Israeli aircraft were shot down. Not a single pilot was forced to eject or be rescued. Iran’s air defenses, including Russian-built systems, failed to stop any manned aircraft. Israel demonstrated complete air superiority and the operational freedom to hit any target, anywhere inside Iran, without interference.

This display of power shattered the myth of Iran’s invulnerability. For years, the Islamic Republic built a perception of strength based on its nuclear program, missile arsenal, and proxy network. In 12 days, Israel dismantled that illusion. Its actions signaled to the region and to the world that Iran can be struck, its infrastructure can be broken, and its leadership can be targeted without hesitation.

Strategic Decapitation and Nuclear Disruption

Israel's operation focused not only on infrastructure, but also on people. Over 20 senior Iranian military commanders were killed, including:
Hossein Salami, Commander-in-Chief of the IRGC
Mohammad Bagheri, Chief of Staff of Iran’s Armed Forces
Gholamali Rashid, head of Khatam al-Anbia Headquarters
Amir Ali Hajizadeh, IRGC Aerospace Commander
Saeed Izadi and Mohammad Shahriari, senior Quds Force officers
IRGC intelligence chief Mohammad Kazemi and his deputy Hassan Mohaqiq
In parallel, at least 14 nuclear scientists were eliminated. These included Fereydoun Abbasi-Davani, former head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization, and physicist Mohammad Mehdi Tehranchi. Their deaths dealt a devastating blow to Iran’s nuclear weapons capability.

Major nuclear facilities were heavily damaged or degraded:
Natanz suffered destruction of its above-ground pilot enrichment plant and possible damage to underground centrifuges
Isfahan, struck twice, saw nuclear research infrastructure destroyed
Explosions near Fordow suggest the deeply buried site was severely damaged, especially with U.S. support using bunker-busting munitions
Tehran-based administrative and centrifuge production sites were also hit

Initial assessments indicate that Israel destroyed up to 1,000 ballistic missiles on the ground. Roughly 65 percent of Iran’s launchers were neutralized. Airfields, storage depots, and radar installations across western Iran were wiped out.
The Failed Soothsayers of Armageddon By Abe Greenwald
Via Commentary Podcast sign up here. Where do the doomsday prognosticators about Israel’s attack on Iran go from here? Before Israel and the U.S. destroyed Iran’s nuclear program, these hysterics had made frightful predictions. They warned of everything from a prolonged nation-building slog to a new migrant crisis to a world-wide financial collapse to a global (possibly nuclear) war. They predicted that thousands of Americans would die in a week. And they got everything wrong.

Here's what happened: In 12 days, Israel and the U.S. wiped out Iran’s ability to make a nuclear weapon. Iran launched some missiles and drones at Israel (and an American base), most of which were intercepted. No one else got involved. Donald Trump instituted a cease-fire and has been nominated for a Nobel Peace Prize that he will never win. But you can expect more good news to come out of the region soon, because an enfeebled Iran opens up a world of possibilities.

It's bad enough to be proven spectacularly wrong immediately and before the entire world. But it’s worse to then be stuck on the losing side as the victors advance the common good. This can force you to say very stupid things. For example, before Donald Trump sent in the B-2s, Matt Duss, former foreign-policy adviser to Bernie Sanders and forever critic of Israel, wrote that he was “in horror at the prospect of a direct conflict between Iran and America.” He now acknowledges the catastrophe that wasn’t thus: “Not for the first time, it seems that lots of people aren’t going to die because Iran showed more restraint than the US and Israel.” Some claims are too disconnected from reality to merit debunking. But they do merit laughter.

And you can laugh at this, too. In the New York Times, Ali Vaez, Iran director for the International Crisis Group, told reporter Farnaz Fassihi that everyone—Israel, the U.S., and Iran—can claim a win here: “The United States can say it has set back Iran’s nuclear program,” he said. “Israel can say it has weakened Iran, a regional adversary, and Iran can say it has survived and pushed back against much stronger military powers.”

And I can say that I’m the pope, but that won’t transport me to the Vatican.

The truth is that Israel and the United States are the victors, and Iran is the loser. No one, including Ali Vaez and Ayatollah Khamenei himself, believes otherwise.
Did Iran Just Blink
Critics of the American bombing raid on Iran have warned that it could lead to dangerous retaliation, and risk dragging the U.S. into a broader conflict. (How this could be a greater risk than allowing the murderous fanatics who govern Iran to have nuclear weapons is a separate question.) Yesterday, Iran indeed retaliated. Noah Rothman writes:
On Monday, Iranian state media released a high-production-value video revealing [the government’s] intention to strike U.S. forces inside neighboring Qatar. A bombastic statement from Iran’s Supreme National Security Council accompanying the video claimed that Iran had launched a salvo of ten missiles at the U.S.-manned Al Udeid Air Base, which “pulverized” American forces. In reality, the missiles seem to have all been intercepted before they reached their targets. No casualties have been reported.

In fact, the Iranians quietly gave Qatar—the Gulf state with which they have the best relations—advance warning of the attack, knowing that the Qataris would then pass it on to the U.S. Thus prepared, American forces were able to minimize the damage. Rothman continues:
So far, Iran’s retaliatory response to U.S. strikes on its nuclear program looks a lot like its reaction to the 2020 attack that killed the Revolutionary Guard commander Qassem Suleimani—which is to say that it seems like Tehran is seeking an offramp to avoid a potentially existential conflict with the United States.

Now, it’s important to note that this is only a face-saving climb-down if that’s how we want to interpret it. The only reason why we remember the Iranian operation aimed at avenging Soleimani’s death as a cease-fire overture is because we decided to take it that way. We didn’t have to do that. One-hundred-and-ten U.S. service personnel were treated for injuries as a result of that direct and unprecedented ballistic-missile attack on U.S. forces in Iraq. . . . The U.S. could have regarded that strike as an unacceptable precedent, but the Trump administration had made its point. By simply deeming deterrence to have been restored, the U.S. helped bring that condition about.

It appears that is precisely what the U.S. has done this time. Last night both Washington and Tehran announced a cease-fire, one that includes Israel. Whether it will hold remains to be seen; Iran already managed to get in a deadly, eleventh-hour attack on civilians in Beersheba. If Jerusalem knew such an arrangement was in the cards—and there is every reason to think it did—then its military activities over the past few days start to make a great deal of sense.

Since June 13, there has been some lack of clarity about whether Israel’s goal is to destroy Iran’s nuclear and ballistic-missile capabilities, or to destabilize the regime. Now it seems that the IDF has been doing precisely what it has done in the final phase of almost every prior war: try to inflict as much damage as possible upon the enemy’s military infrastructure before the U.S. blows the whistle and declares the war over—thus reestablishing deterrence and leaving its enemy’s offensive capabilities severely weakened.

In the next item, I’ll turn to some of the nonmilitary targets Israel chose.


Amit Segal: The Nuclear Threat that Loomed over Israel Has Been Eliminated
History will remember these eleven days as one of the greatest diplomatic and military achievements in Israel's history.

The murder on Tuesday of four civilians in Beersheba leaves a bitter taste in the mouth, just as the murder of 25 peaceful civilians who paid with their lives, and the thousands left homeless or severely affected, does.

But in terms of results, the nuclear threat that loomed over Israel - one that would have certainly led to the Jewish state's destruction - has been eliminated.

A regime willing to target civilians with conventional explosives would have done so without hesitation using a nuclear missile. And it was accomplished without a single aircraft being downed, with all our planes returning safely to base - contrary to all forecasts.

The number of casualties on the home front was 97% lower than initial estimates, thanks to the practical dismantling of the ballistic missile system, which will take years to rebuild.

Those who experience a miracle don't always recognize it as such, especially not in the hours when survivors are still being searched for under the rubble. But with time, the historical significance of what happened here will become clear. And so will the fact that Israel stood firm on the Begin Doctrine: never to allow any country to acquire nuclear weapons.
UN Nuclear Watchdog Chief: ‘Night and Day’ Difference Between Iran’s Nuclear Capabilities Before and After US Strikes
The U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities set back the Islamic Republic’s program "significantly," the head of the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog organization said Tuesday.

"I think the Iranian nuclear program has been set back significantly, significantly," International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) director general Rafael Grossi said in a Fox News interview. He noted that "it is clear that there is one Iran—before June 13, nuclear Iran—and one now," describing the difference as "night and day."

Just before the Tuesday afternoon interview, the IAEA revealed that it detected "extensive damage at several nuclear sites in Iran, including its uranium conversion and enrichment facilities." That damage caused a radioactive release, according to the organization.

"Our assessment is that there has been some localized radioactive as well as chemical release inside the affected facilities that contained nuclear material—mainly uranium enriched to varying degrees—but there has been no report of increased off-site radiation levels," Grossi said in the IAEA statement. The organization observed "two impact holes from the U.S. strikes" at Iran’s Natanz enrichment site above "the underground halls that had been used for enrichment as well as for storage," according to the statement, in which Grossi also said he saw "extensive damage at several nuclear sites in Iran, including its uranium conversion and enrichment facilities."

David Albright of the Institute for Science and International Security, meanwhile, released a post-attack battle damage assessment based on satellite imagery of the targeted Iranian facilities as well as reporting from the IAEA and Israel Defense Forces (IDF). He determined that the U.S. and Israeli strikes "effectively destroyed Iran's centrifuge enrichment program."

"It will be a long time before Iran comes anywhere near the capability it had before the attack," Albright's report states.

The assessments from the IAEA and Albright align with proclamations from members of the Trump administration, including President Donald Trump himself, who have described the state of the Iranian nuclear program as "devastated" and "obliterated" after the United States’ Saturday evening bombing run. But they contradict reporting from CNN that suggested the strikes did not destroy significant portions of Iran’s nuclear program and only set the Islamic Republic back in its quest to develop a bomb by a few months.

CNN cited "four people briefed on" a Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) assessment. One claimed that Iran’s centrifuges are still "intact" and that the U.S. strikes "set [Iran] back maybe a few months, tops," according to the network.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt pushed back on the report, calling the assessment "flat-out wrong" and arguing that the leak appeared to be "a clear attempt to demean President Trump, and discredit the brave fighter pilots who conducted a perfectly executed mission to obliterate Iran’s nuclear program."

CNN did not disclose in its report that the DIA assessment was low-confidence and based on satellite imagery.


The Israel-Iran war by the numbers, after 12 days of fighting
With a shaky ceasefire between Israel and Iran taking effect on Tuesday morning, the full scope of the 12 days of fighting, which started with a surprise Israeli operation against Tehran’s nuclear program, began to emerge.

Two hours into the ceasefire declared by US President Donald Trump, Iran launched two more ballistic missiles at Israel, setting off sirens in northern Israel. Both projectiles were intercepted, and the Israel Defense Forces in response struck an Iranian radar north of Tehran, seemingly ending the conflict. The civilian toll

Iran’s ballistic missile attacks on Israel during the 12 days of war claimed the lives of 28 people — all but one of them civilians — and wounded over 3,000 people.

Israel’s Health Ministry said a total of 3,238 people were hospitalized, including 23 who were seriously injured, 111 moderately, 2,933 lightly, 138 who suffered from acute anxiety, and another 30 whose conditions have not been determined.

The vast majority of the casualties were civilians, with the IDF reporting just seven soldiers hurt in one missile impact in central Israel and an off-duty soldier killed in Beersheba.

Israeli authorities have said more than 9,000 people have been displaced from their homes, dozens of which were damaged or destroyed by the Iranian attacks.

Missiles and drones
Iran launched between some 550 ballistic missiles and around 1,000 drones at Israel during the war, according to the IDF.

Most of the missiles were intercepted by Israeli and American air defenses at an interception rate of around 90 percent, similar to the rate in Iran’s April and October 2024 attacks on Israel.

At least 31 ballistic missile impacts were reported in populated areas or critical infrastructure sites, including a power station in southern Israel, an oil refinery in Haifa, and a university in central Israel. Dozens of other missiles struck open areas, without causing significant damage.

The vast majority of the 1,000 drones, which are slower-moving but harder to track, failed to even make it to Israel’s borders.
Seth Frantzman: After the Ceasefire, Will Iran Abandon its ‘Axis of Resistance’?
Key Points – The recent ceasefire deal, brokered after US and Israeli strikes crippled Iran’s nuclear and military infrastructure, presents Tehran with an opportunity to abandon its long-held ambitions for regional hegemony.

-For years, Iran successfully projected power through its “axis of resistance,” a network of proxies in Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq, and Syria.

-However, this network has crumbled over the past year with the weakening of Hezbollah and the fall of the Assad regime.

-The recent war exposed Iran’s conventional military vulnerabilities, forcing it into a face-saving, limited missile strike on Qatar.

-This ceasefire could be a turning point, compelling Iran to scale back its costly foreign interventions. The Decline of Iran’s Proxies: How Tehran’s Regional Power Crumbled

On June 23, Iran launched a ballistic missile attack targeting the US Al-Udeid base in Qatar. The United States was well prepared for the attack. The State Department had urged Americans to shelter in place, and US Central Command coordinated closely with the Qataris to intercept the threats.

Iran carried out the attack in response to the US airstrikes on three Iranian nuclear sites on June 22.
Netanyahu’s Gamble: Why He Finally Struck Iran
In this conversation, Daniel Mael and Seth Frantzman discuss the recent military operations led by Israel under Netanyahu's leadership, particularly in the context of the October 7th tragedy. They explore the implications of military preparedness, the dynamics of Israel's strategy against Iran, and the complexities of negotiating hostage situations. The discussion also touches on internal political challenges, the role of national unity, and the ongoing divisions within Israeli society.


Gerald Steinberg: Iran, Israel and Trump: What’s Next?
At 7 AM IDT on June 24, 2025, and after 12 days of war, Israel and Iran agreed to a ceasefire, under the direction of US President Trump. If the ceasefire holds, the “battle damage assessment” (BDA) will start. Here are the key questions and issues to look for:

1) In Iran, the BDA will focus first on regime survival. Are popular opposition forces strong and organized enough to replace the fanatics that took power in 1979? Did Israeli strikes on internal repression centers open options for a wider revolt?

2) Regarding Iran’s conventional military including IRGC – the IDF killed a large segment of senior officers – the command structure is severely weakened, and training replacements will take time. Also, key assets were destroyed – air defense, antique mini-airforce, drone and missile production, etc. This leaves Iran even more vulnerable, and forces the regime to either divert massive funds to restoring at least parts of the conventional military, or abandoning these security dimensions.

3) Iran’s BDA must also determine the strategic assets that remain, and then decide on what can be salvaged, and with what priority and budget? There is a great deal of speculation on the location of the HEU (highly enriched uranium) that was produced for bomb making – it may be buried, all or in part, under the remains of Fordo, Natanz or another nuclear site. Even if the regime still possesses the HEU, did the facilities and engineers for making a weapon survive Israel’s precise strikes? Can they rebuild in less than 20 years, and at what cost?

4) The quantity of Iranian missiles and launchers were depleted continuously – in the final 48 hours, they were down from 250/day to less than 20. (But each missile that hits a populated area does major damage – 28 civilians dead, many more injured, 1000s in temporary housing.) Israel is unlikely to allow any rebuilding or movement of remaining missiles. Similarly, and in contrast to the Russia war on Ukraine, almost all of the hundreds of drones were intercepted – these weapons were useless. This leaves Iran even more vulnerable, and forces the regime to either divert massive funds to restoring at least parts, or abandoning these security dimensions.
Why Israel Bombed the Gates of Iran’s Most Dreaded Prison
In recent days, Israeli jets have hit (without civilian casualties) some more symbolic targets in Iran, including the clock that putatively counts down to the destruction of the Jewish state and the doors to the notorious Evin prison. In a supreme irony, Amnesty International—an anti-American, anti-Israel organization nominally committed to freeing political prisoners—condemned Jerusalem for a strike on one of the world’s most horrifying political prisons.

Jonathan Sacerdoti comments:
We should be clear-eyed and unambiguous: this is a welcome development. Israel is striking not only to defend itself but to undermine one of the most repressive systems on earth. If Evin’s walls are breached and its victims walk free, that will be a day of liberation, for Iranians and for the foreign hostages whose only crime was to enter a country run by sadistic, ruthless hostage-takers.

Evin is infamous for holding foreign hostages and dual nationals, many of whom are detained by the regime as part of what human-rights groups call “hostage diplomacy.” It has long been associated with arbitrary detention, torture, forced confessions, and inhumane conditions, especially for political prisoners and those accused of spying or threatening national security.

The stories are harrowing. . . . The mutilated corpse of Jamshid “Jimmy” Sharmahd was recently returned to his family after the German‑Iranian journalist and software engineer had been abducted icby Islamic Republic agents from Dubai in July 2020, and reportedly held in Evin prison, enduring years of torture and the denial of medical care. He was murdered in October 2024, with neither the USA nor Germany having made appropriate efforts to free him and the other hostages.

The regime in Tehran does not act in isolation. It is emboldened by years of impunity. Western governments have, for too long, attempted to resolve these abductions quietly, bilaterally, and often secretively. The impulse is understandable: protect the hostages, avoid provocation, preserve diplomacy. But it has failed. Indeed, it has encouraged more detentions. The Islamic regime in Iran has learned that the West will negotiate, will relent, will pay. And so it has continued.
The Unsung Heroes Who Make Israeli Victory Possible
For the many IDF reservists who have spent more than 200 days in uniform since October 7, 2023, the week-and-a-half since Israel struck at Iran’s nuclear and military assets has highlighted a dissonance that has existed for two decades. Credit and glory for the Israeli army’s successes go largely to the elite members of the Israeli Air Force (IAF), army intelligence, and the Mossad, while the tens of thousands of fighters in the ground forces who contribute mightily to their country’s defenses, show extraordinary dedication, and sacrifice to an unparalleled degree remain as unsung as they are heroic. This is not to take anything away from Israel’s operations in Iran, which are somewhere between spectacular and miraculous. But anyone wanting to get a full picture of what has enabled Israel to carry out and sustain its attacks on Iran needs to look at the role of the reservists—a subject I addressed in a comprehensive essay in Mosaic published earlier this month.

As a starting point, it is necessary to recognize that Israeli reservists—army veterans who completed their full service and then entered civilian life as students, members of the work force, spouses, and parents—provided the bulk of the combat troops largely responsible for Israel’s successes during a multi-front war that has been going on for more than twenty months. Reserve brigades and reservists holding key positions in regular, conscript units played a crucial role in every stage of degrading Hamas in Gaza, especially in the critical, early months of the war when their numbers, experience, and maturity were absolutely vital—and when the number being killing and injured was at its peak.

It was reservists who did the lion’s share of defending the northern border against Hizballah until the IDF was ready to shift its resources to decapitate and defang that terror organization. They likewise played a crucial role in the ground operation against Hizballah that destroyed military assets built up over two decades and helped force it into a humiliating ceasefire. The sidelining of Hizballah, a key ally of the Assad regime in Syria, was the principal factor that rendered the Alawite-dominated government vulnerable to a rapid takeover by a coalition of groups with Sunni jihadist roots (and in many cases, commitments). Iran had long relied on Hizballah not only to terrorize the citizens and soldiers of the Jewish state, but also to serve as the principal deterrent against an Israeli attack on Iran, based on the threat that this Shiite militia would in such a scenario fire a large portion of its arsenal of 200,000 missiles and rockets at army bases and, especially, population centers throughout the Jewish state. The removal of the threat of parallel attacks by Hizballah and Hamas, other partners in the “Axis of Resistance,” coupled with creating the conditions to enable Israeli pilots to fly safely over Syrian airspace en route to and from Iran, made Iran even more vulnerable to Israeli attack. Thus the combat reservists paved the way for the recent Israeli strikes on the Islamic Republic.

Moreover, these same reservists have been playing a crucial role in defending the Jewish state against the threats emanating from Iran and its satellites since Israel’s devastating surprise attack of June 13. Precisely because Israel has gained control over Iranian airspace and enjoys escalation dominance in the direct conflict between the two regional powers, Iran’s strategy, alongside firing waves of missiles and drones at Israeli population centers, has been to turn up the heat on Israel from close range—through infiltration from Jordan, enlisting Hizballah in renewed hostilities, and encouraging Hamas to accelerate its terror operations in the West Bank. These efforts have been thwarted largely by a massive call-up of Israeli reservists to reinforce Israeli defenses in these areas, coupled with redeploying to these anticipated hot spots many of the reservists who had been serving in Gaza and other areas that are temporarily less of a priority.


Katz: Israel will respect ceasefire ‘as long as other side does
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz spoke with U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth on Tuesday amid the ceasefire between Israel and Iran, Katz wrote in a social media post.

Katz stated that he thanked Hegseth for U.S. President Donald Trump’s “bold decision to act with Israel against the Iranian nuclear threat.” Hegseth then “praised” Israel and the Israeli Defense Forces “for the historic achievements made.”

Katz also “emphasized that Israel will respect the ceasefire—as long as the other side does.”

Iran initially broke the ceasefire announced by Trump hours after it went into effect by launching missiles into Israel. Two launches were detected and intercepted, according to reports, shortly after Jerusalem agreed to the U.S.-brokered ceasefire.

The Israeli Defense Minister also stated that he and Hegseth “agreed to deepen the close U.S.-Israel security cooperation.”


Trump slams Israel for responding to Iranian ceasefire violation
President Donald Trump blasted Israel on Tuesday morning after it said it would respond to Iranian violations of the ceasefire, telling reporters, “I’m not happy with Iran, but I’m really not happy with Israel.”

“We have two countries that have been fighting for so long and so hard that they don’t know what the f*** they’re doing,” he continued, speaking to reporters at Joint Base Andrews before taking off to attend the NATO summit at The Hague, Netherlands.

The IDF intercepted two missiles from Iran at about 10:30 a.m. Israel time, just hours after the ceasefire announced by Trump on Monday night came into effect. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said he “instructed the IDF to respond forcefully to the violation of the ceasefire by Iran with powerful strikes against regime targets in the heart of Tehran.”

Asked about Iran’s violation of the ceasefire, Trump said, “They violated it but Israel violated it, too. Israel, as soon as we made the deal, came out and they dropped a load of bombs the likes of which I’ve never seen before. … I’m not happy with Iran, either, but I’m really not happy if Israel is going out this morning because of one rocket that didn’t land, that was shot perhaps by mistake, that didn’t land. I’m not happy about that.”

“These guys gotta calm down, it’s ridiculous,” he added later.

The Prime Minister’s Office said in a statement on Tuesday, “The ceasefire was set for 7 a.m. At 3 a.m., Israel forcefully struck at the heart of Tehran, damaging regime targets and eliminating hundreds of Basij militants and Iranian security forces. Shortly before the ceasefire went into effect, Iran sent a barrage of missiles, one of which took the lives of four of our civilians in Beersheba. At 7:00 the ceasefire went into effect. At 7:06 Iran sent one missile to Israeli territory and at 10:25, two additional missiles. The missiles were intercepted or fell in open areas with none injured and no damage.”

Shortly after he made his comments, Trump posted to Truth Social, “ISRAEL. DO NOT DROP THOSE BOMBS. IF YOU DO IT IS A MAJOR VIOLATION. BRING YOUR PILOTS HOME, NOW!”

Jerusalem sought clarifications from the Trump administration after his Truth Social post, an Israeli official told Jewish Insider, as the president had previously reassured Israel it could respond to Iranian violations of the ceasefire.


What 'Split'? 9 in 10 MAGA Voters Back Trump Strikes on Iran, Poll Shows
Ninety percent of President Donald Trump's voters support the U.S. strikes that decimated Iran's nuclear program, according to a new poll, undercutting media claims that the attack set off a "MAGA civil war."

The GrayHouse poll, conducted in the immediate wake of the Saturday strikes and obtained by the Washington Free Beacon, shows that 76 percent of Trump voters strongly support the attack, compared with 14 percent who somewhat support them. Eighty-four percent of respondents, meanwhile, agreed that the strikes were "limited military actions, not war." Eighty-two percent called the attack "a smarter, more limited operation that can achieve U.S. objectives without leading to a wider war."

Those respondents were proven right on Monday, when Iran responded to the strikes with a limited attack on a U.S. military base in Qatar that caused no significant damage and yielded no casualties. Iran gave "early notice" of the "very weak" missile barrage, according to Trump, who hours later announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran that is expected to bring the war to a close in roughly 24 hours.

The poll's findings stand in stark contrast to mainstream media coverage that warned of a "civil war" and "split" within the MAGA base over Trump's support for Israel in the war as well as his decision to strike Iran's nuclear program. Though prominent Republican isolationist voices like Tucker Carlson broke with Trump over the war, polls showed little daylight between the president and his supporters.

"President Trump kept his promise and that's why his approval is at a record high," Sen. Tom Cotton (R., Ark.) told the Free Beacon. "Republicans back Israel against our common enemy Iran and the party is united."


Netanyahu hails Israel's victory over Iran in televised speech
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hailed Israel’s victory over Iran in a televised speech on Tuesday night, saying it was of historic proportions and would be remembered for generations.

"We destroyed Iran's missile manufacturing industry—just minutes before the deadly missiles were set to be launched at Israel. Iran's malicious intent to threaten Israel has been eradicated."

As the 12-day air campaign against Iran came to a close, Netanyahu reiterated his commitment to preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons and took the opportunity to express his gratitude to US President Donald Trump, whom he called Israel’s “greatest friend” in the White House.

"We eliminated many senior officials and attacked Revolutionary Guard bases. We struck a decisive blow to the ayatollah regime, marking the hardest blow in its history. We eliminated hundreds of regime operatives in a crushing attack. I thank President Trump for his unwavering support."

Netanyahu also extended his appreciation to Israel's military and intelligence leaders, as well as the airmen, women, and ground crews who achieved the strategic victory.

"I would like to thank the Chief of Staff, the head of the Mossad, and our fighters and pilots," Netanyahu said.

Additionally, he issued a stern warning to Iran’s leadership, vowing that Israel would not hesitate to strike against any attempt to resume nuclear ambitions.

The prime minister also reflected on his recent visits to cities that had been severely impacted by missile strikes, reassuring the residents: “I promised them, we will rebuild.”


IDF soldier in training named as first military casualty in Iran missile attacks
The Israel Defense Forces announced on Tuesday night that one of its soldiers was killed by an Iranian missile launched at the Jewish state.

Cpl. Eitan Zacks, 18, from Beersheva, a member of the IDF’s elite 888 “Ghost” Multidimensional Unit, was in combat training when he was killed “as a result of a missile launched from Iran,” the IDF stated.

Four Israelis were killed on Tuesday morning when an Iranian ballistic missile struck a residential building in the southern city of Beersheva.

Hebrew media reported that Zacks and the three other casualties, who have yet to be identified, were in a bomb shelter that took a direct hit.

According to the IDF, Tehran fired six volleys totaling 12 missiles at the Jewish state over three hours, beginning at around 5 a.m. The missile launches came around seven hours after U.S. President Donald Trump announced that Jerusalem and Tehran agreed to a “complete and total ceasefire” set to take effect at 7 a.m. local time.

Since the beginning of the war on June 13, the Islamic regime has fired nearly 1,000 missiles and drones at Israeli civilians in densely populated population centers—killing 28, including Zacks, wounding dozens and displacing thousands more and causing widespread property damage.


Israel sees increasing success against Iranian drones, drone and missile attacks continue
On June 23, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said that its Spectrum Warfare 5114th Battalion had played a “significant” role in confronting the Iranian drone threat. “In recent days, the soldiers thwarted dozens of attempted infiltrations by hostile aircraft using electronic warfare. This activity constitutes an additional layer of defense leveraging advanced technological means to detect and neutralize aerial threats in real time,” the IDF said. It is one of many methods the Israeli military has employed, including manned aircraft and various types of interceptors, to stop hundreds of Iranian drones from striking Israel.

According to various reports, by June 23, more than 1,000 Iranian drones had been launched at Israel since Israeli strikes on Iran began on June 12. Iran has also launched hundreds of ballistic missiles at Israel. Iran’s initial attacks were deadly, with 24 Israelis killed and dozens injured by June 16. However, Israel has intercepted around 90 percent of the missile threats and almost all the drones from Iran. One drone, reportedly a Shahed 136, impacted Beit Shean on June 21.

The number of missiles Iran has fired per day has lessened since the first 72 hours of the conflict. By June 21, a total of 450 missiles had been launched, and there were more than 50 impact sites in Israel. A total of 2,835 people had been injured, the Israeli Ministry of Health said on the morning of June 23. The number of people displaced by the war due to missile impacts rose to more than 8,000.

Israel’s air defenses have received widespread praise from officials. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Israeli Air Force Commander Major General Tomer Bar visited an Arrow air defense system unit on June 23. “Prime Minister Netanyahu commended the array’s soldiers and officers and expressed his appreciation for their contribution in defending the skies over Israel,” the Prime Minister’s Office said. Netanyahu also received an operational briefing about the Arrow array and the “operational challenges it faces.”


US strikes on Iran nuke facilities caused more damage than first thought — as watchdog reveals possible contamination
The head of the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog group revealed even more damage from the US airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear sites after taking a closer look — including possible chemical contamination at one facility.

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) chief Rafael Grossi said Tuesday that the latest satellite images from the Fordow and Natanz facilities showed additional damage, beyond what the agency found in the first-pass review of the sites.

At Fordow, the mountain fortress just south of Tehran, officials identified additional strikes at the road leading up to the facility, as well as one of the entrances.

The US dropped 14 30,000-pound bunker-buster bombs on the facility, which includes equipment buried 300 feet underground.

Meanwhile, at Natanz, the IAEA identified “two impact holes from the U.S. strikes above the underground halls that had been used for enrichment as well as for storage.”

“Based on its knowledge of what these halls contained, the IAEA assesses that this strike may have caused localized contamination and chemical hazards,” Grossi warned.
U.S. intel found Iran did not move nuclear material from Fordo ahead of attack, Sen. Mullin says
U.S. intelligence found that Iran did not move nuclear material from its Fordo facility before American bombers blasted that site, despite a report to the contrary, Sen. Markwayne Mullin said Monday.

“They are claiming that they moved some material,” Mullin said, referring to Israel and Iran, respectively. “Our intelligence report says they didn’t,” the Oklahoma Republican said in an interview on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”

“In fact, we actually believe they stored more of it in Fordo because they believe Fordo was impenetrable,” said Mullin, a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee. “They thought it was a safe place to be.”

But, he added, “We have the ability to destroy things that people think were undestroyable. And so we think we did a really good job.”

“However, if we find out that we didn’t, we will be working with our allies to finish the job or we will finish the job,” Mullin warned.

The Fordo facility, which is located 300 feet below a mountain southwest of Tehran, was hit by American air strikes on Saturday.


Qatar strengthens its image as US ally after defending Al Udeid from missile attack
THE REPORTS that Iran choreographed or telegraphed these attacks in advance seem to add weight to a larger plan that the Islamic Republic had to climb down from the conflict. Once Doha could step in to mediate as a friend of Tehran and Washington, then US President Donald Trump could get on board.

Qatar would burnish its image as a key ally, while Israel and Iran would appear problematic in the wake of any ceasefire violations. This has proven to be the case with Trump critiquing Israel and calling for it to stop bombing Iran. The US president cursed in a short interaction with media on Tuesday, saying that Iran and Israel didn’t know what the f*** they were doing in the wake of his peace initiative.

Trump thanked the emir of Qatar for seeking peace in the wake of the Iranian attack, which has brought Doha and Washington much closer. Israel’s actions could increase tensions with the administration.

Some Trump supporters believe Israel tried to drag Trump into a war in the region. They critique those whom they claim are “neo-cons” and “never-Trumpers” for what they believe is having a negative role in the first six months of the new administration.

In short, they want Trump to stick to the agenda of “Make America Great Again,” and they don’t think more wars in the Middle East are part of that agenda. They don’t think a conflict between the US and Iran is helpful.

Now, they are applauding the US president for moving back toward peace and de-escalation. Trump tends to see Turkey’s president, the emir of Qatar, and the leader of Saudi Arabia as key friends in the region.

While Trump has praised Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, he has also expressed concern in the past that his views are not being listened to in Jerusalem.

US Central Command praised Qatar as well. “Today, US forces, alongside our Qatari partners, successfully defended against an Iranian ballistic missile attack targeting Qatar’s Al Udeid Air Base near Doha, Qatar,” CENTCOM said.

“Thanks to the professional, competent, rapid, and coordinated response of US and Qatari forces, the ballistic missile attack was defeated by US and Qatari Patriot batteries, and there were no casualties to American or Qatari personnel. US Central Command appreciates the enduring military-to-military relationship with Qatar, a partnership that has spanned more than 50 years.”

Fox News correspondent Trey Yingst wrote on Monday night that a diplomat had briefed Fox News about the ceasefire talks. “President Trump spoke with Qatar’s emir and informed him [that] the US got Israel to agree to a ceasefire with Iran. The president asked Qatar to help persuade Iran to do the same. Following that, Vice President JD Vance coordinated with Qatar’s Prime Minister on the details.”

Doha emerges as a winner in the Iran-Israel conflict, while Jerusalem may be perceived as breaking the ceasefire or increasing tensions needlessly in the region now. The US has launched unprecedented strikes to weaken Iran’s nuclear program, but Trump will not want to see this important work undone.

Now, Qatar may play an increasing role in US-Iran talks. Oman had mediated the talks in the past, but it remains to be seen what happens next. However, it is clear that Iran’s decision to attack the US base in Qatar handed Doha a major opportunity to help with a ceasefire and possible future talks.


Ask Haviv Anything: Episode 23: Iran bows out
There's now a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. Who won the war? And what happens now?

We offer some preliminary conclusions as the dust settles.

This episode is sponsored by the Peters family, Tom, Shevi, Daniel, Ethan, Arielle, Yoni and David, in honor of BeLev Echad, an organization devoted to helping wounded Israeli veterans recover physically, medically and emotionally. To learn about how you too can help Israeli veterans recover, visit Belevechad.nyc.


Commentary PodCast: Trump's Ceasefire and Its Discontents
Eli Lake joins the podcast today to consider the president's reaction to Iran's violation of the ceasefire he had announced only hours earlier and why he leaned on Israel to respond very lightly.
Hillel Neuer on Merit TV: “The Iranian regime is at its weakest point ever.”
Hillel Neuer appeared on Merit TV with Fanchon Stinger to discuss the danger of the Iranian regime, the threat it poses to the United States, and the need to put political differences aside during this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to dismantle Iran's nuclear program.


Hillel Neuer on Fox Business: “Iran was defeated in an extraordinary way”
Hillel Neuer appeared on Fox Business with Maria Bartiromo to discuss the ceasefire between Israel and Iran, the weakness and absurdity of the United Nations, and the future ahead.


Ben Shapiro: Trump's MASTERSTROKE: What Comes Next?!
With President Trump's brave decision to destroy the Iranian nuclear facilities, all eyes turn to what comes next; the horseshoe theory Left and Right come together to caterwaul over the strike; and we talk about the permutations for American foreign policy moving forward.


Ben Shapiro: BREAKING: Iran Launches Missiles at U.S. Military Bases | Does This Mean War?
Ben Shapiro reacts to news that Iran just launched a ballistic missile salvo at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, home to the U.S.’s largest Middle East command. The Iranian attack comes as a direct retaliation for recent U.S. strikes on its nuclear facilities. Ben breaks down what triggered Iran’s self-described “mighty and successful” counterstrike and how the U.S. and its allies are responding.

Watch now for a breakdown of how one misstep on either side could ignite a wider war, and how America is navigating this dangerous crisis.


UKLFI: Natasha Hausdorff on Talk TV with Julia Hartley-Brewer
Julia Hartley-Brewer interviews Natasha Hausdorff, UKLFI Charitable Trust Legal Director, on Iran's breach of the ceasefire, the proposed proscription of Palestine Action, and anti-Israel activity at the British Medical Association.


Sharri Markson reacts to ‘shocking violation’ by Iran following ceasefire collapse
Sky News host Sharri Markson says the ceasefire in the Middle East is set to collapse after a “shocking violation” by Iran.

President Donald Trump's ceasefire has seemingly collapsed less than 24 hours after it was announced as Israel and Iran trade missile strikes.

“Just hours after agreeing to a ceasefire, Iran fired missiles into residential areas in northern Israel,” Ms Markson said.

“This is inexcusable; it's a clear violation of the ceasefire and Iran won't be allowed to get away with this.”


Fresh round of blasts heard across Tehran after Trump’s ceasefire announcement
A fresh round of blasts have been heard across Tehran after US President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran in a post on Truth Social.

Mr Trump said a ‘total and complete ceasefire’ would begin in ‘approximately six hours’.

Israel and Iran have not yet confirmed if they have accepted the terms of the ceasefire.


Ayaan Hirsi Ali on why the Iranian regime needs to be ‘brought down’
Author Ayaan Hirsi Ali says the Iranian regime is committed to expanding “terror” beyond its borders.

One ballistic missile has been fired into Israel from Iran after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu agreed to a bilateral ceasefire.

“The reason why it is really important, in my view, to bring this particular regime down is because it is explicitly committed to exporting the Islamic revolution beyond Iran’s borders,” Ms Hirsi Ali told Sky News host Peta Credlin.

“At this very moment, it is weak, and I think we have been doing for many decades ... a half-done job.”


Iran suffers 'humiliating defeat' following massive blows delivered by US
The Australian’s Foreign Editor Greg Sheridan discusses Iran’s “humiliating defeat” following a failed attempt to strike a US airbase in Qatar.

“Trump has come in and delivered massive blows to Iran’s three primary nuclear facilities,” Mr Sheridan told Sky News Australia.

“This ceasefire is a sign that Iran has suffered a humiliating defeat.

“It did a token strike on an American airbase in Qatar, which it told the Americans about in advance.”


Iran wrongly claims it ‘pulverised’ US military base
Newsweek Senior Editor-at-Large Josh Hammer has criticised the Iranian regime after it wrongly claimed it “pulverised” a US military base.

“The Iranian regime put out a propaganda statement after this, after none of their missiles actually landed … saying that they had pulverised the American military base,” Mr Hammer told Sky News Digital Presenter Gabriella Power.

“This is a transparent face-saving measure.

“This is a dying wounded animal that is essentially just lashing out to try to survive.”


A potential ‘internal breakdown’ in Iran may have undermined ceasefire with Israel
Liberal Senator Dave Sharma attributes the collapse of the Iran-Israel ceasefire in part to an “internal breakdown” within Iran.

“We’ve had mixed signals from Iran … they haven’t explicitly agreed to a ceasefire,” Mr Sharma told Sky News host Sharri Markson.

“There’s a possibility that there’s been a breakdown internally in Iran here too, where the leadership wanted to observe a ceasefire but elements of the IRGC did not.”


Iran ‘violated’ ceasefire negotiations
Former Israeli government spokesperson Eylon Levy discusses the future of the conflict between Israel and Iran.

Mr Levy told Sky News host Sharri Markson that Iran “violated” the ceasefire negotiations.

“With missile fire at northern Israel.”




The Babylon Bee: Trump Bombed Iran. Here's How 12 Media Outlets Covered The Story
Welp, it looks like Trump bombed Iran. The Babylon Bee has assembled headlines from various media outlets here in one place so you can pick a little bit of the truth out of each to learn the whole story.

Here's how different media outlets are covering the historic news:
New York Times — Quiet Middle Eastern Community Devastated By Unprovoked Trump Attack
Fox News — Trump Neutralizes Terrifying Iran Nuclear Threat With Mere Seconds To Spare
New York Post — AYATOLL-YA SO! Iran Out Of Luck As Trump Drops Bodacious Bunker Buster
CNN — Trump Cruelly Deprives Poor Iranian Children Of Nuclear Weapon They've Always Dreamed Of
MSNBC — Iran Is Now The George Floyd Of The Middle East
BBC News — REMINDER: Next Call To Prayer Is In One Hour. Allahu Akbar.
One America News — Yay Trump For Avoiding War - Oh Wait, He Bombed Iran? Really? I Mean, Yay Trump For Bombing Iran
Vice — I Took Fentanyl And Slept With A Penguin
Vogue — 5 Kinky Tricks You Can Try In The Bedroom To Show Your Support For Iran
Not The Bee — Trump Just Bombed The Snot Out Of Iran And The Responses Are STRAIGHT 🔥🔥🔥🤣
The Babylon Bee — Iranian Nuclear Facility Escapes Bombing By Identifying As Mar A Lago (That's Right We Just Have The One Joke)
Al-Jazeera — TRUMP JUST BOMBED OUR HEADQUARTERS!!!




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