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Monday, June 23, 2025

06/23 Links Pt1: Trump announces Israel-Iran ceasefire; Iran Brought This On Itself; True stories of espionage, sabotage—and Divine Providence.

From Ian:

Jake Wallis Simons: Trump has just secured the best chance for global peace
Thank God somebody hasn’t forgotten their courage. In civil society, meanwhile, we were yesterday treated to the embarrassing spectacle of crowds protesting in London in support of the Ayatollah. Women who enjoyed equal rights and men who took free expression for granted raised placards showing the face of the tyrant, along with the slogan, “choose the right side of history”. It is tempting to conclude that Britain is lost.

As I wrote in these pages last week, this is Israel’s century. The countries that will not only survive but thrive will be those with conviction in their values and the courage and resilience to defend them. Now is the time to rouse ourselves from the post-Cold War torpor of identity politics and self-hatred. Yet our bankrupt leaders refuse to release us. Israel and the United States can hold their heads high today, while we must hang ours in shame.

How must the airmen of the RAF feel as they watch this great victory unfold from the sidelines? What about all the decent Britons? Oh, for the chance to feel proud of our country again. So much for us. This morning, however, we should spare a thought for the Israeli people.

Over the last one-and-a-half years, they have suffered trauma, fear, uncertainty and bereavement, not to mention the hatred of the world. Hundreds of thousands of men from all walks of life have served on the frontlines and many have failed to return home. The propaganda against them has been overwhelming. Yet the country has refused to be defeated.

Even after more than 600 days of war in Gaza, when Netanyahu ordered the attacks on Iran, public support stood at more than 90 per cent, despite knowing that life would be horribly disrupted, missiles would fall on their homes and some of their people would die.

While European leaders wagged their fingers and quivered in their beds, the citizens of the Middle East’s only democracy demonstrated what may be achieved in a country that has not discarded its old loves of flag, faith and family, as we have done. This is a lesson for the West either to learn or to ignore. As the Zionist leader Ze’ev Jabotinsky put it: “We were not created in order to teach morals and manners to our enemies.”

For our own sakes, however, and for those of our children, we must learn this lesson fast. The centrist fundamentalism that has so disfigured our societies since the Cold War has run its course. Those who persist in pursuing it – Starmer, Macron and the rest – have been outstripped by history, even if they do not yet know it. Israel’s pride is our shame. This is Jerusalem’s century and we must decide where to plant our feet.
Eli Lake: What Happens If Iran’s Regime Collapses?
Mariam Memarsadeghi, a senior fellow at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute and the founder and director of the Cyrus Forum for Iran’s Future, also sees very little hope in a democratic transition as Israel wages war in Iran. “The opposition, unfortunately, is not ready,” she said. “I don’t like saying that but it’s the truth. Pahlavi talks about having a plan to maintain security and stability, but I just don’t see how that can be possible. At the very least, he is going to need foreign help.”

That foreign help will not be coming from America. Despite the president’s MIGA post, there is no serious conversation inside the Trump administration about another nation-building war in the Middle East. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on Sunday told reporters that America’s war aims did not include “regime change.” As one Trump administration official told me, “There is no chance we go in for nation-building when this thing is done.”

For different reasons, Israel will also not be stabilizing a post-Khamenei Iran. Israel would welcome a democratic Iran but will settle for a weakened one. The Jewish state is far too small—with a population of just over 10 million—to put significant boots on the ground in a country of more than 90 million people if Khamenei was deposed. Nonetheless, its intelligence service, Mossad, has cultivated networks now being used for targeting nuclear and military sites and other kinds of sabotage. Two former U.S. national security officials who worked closely with Israel while in government said those networks can be repurposed to support an Iranian uprising should the need arise.

Mark Dubowitz, the CEO of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told The Free Press, “What is going to get Iranians back to the streets in great numbers will be support from the West; that means Israel. The security apparatus is weakened. There is an internet blackout. It’s early days. I think the opportunity is there.”

Dave Wurmser, a former national security council staffer in Trump’s first term who also worked at the Pentagon and State Department under George W. Bush, said Israeli war planners were aware that a byproduct of the campaign could “destabilize the regime to the point where it could fall.”

Some former U.S. intelligence analysts, however, see the prospects of a democratic uprising in the near term to be slim. Jonathan Panikoff, the former deputy national intelligence officer for the Middle East, told me that even if Iran’s supreme leader was taken out, the regime may not collapse. “I would love nothing more than democracy in Iran, but it’s much more likely that you get IRGC-istan,” he said, a reference to the Revolutionary Guard Corps that has amassed extraordinary domestic power over the last 25 years. “At the end of the day, guns trump words. We’ve seen that play out in 2009, in 2017 in the Woman, Life, Freedom movement. It’s more likely it’s a different kind of authoritarian state, a military junta with a fig leaf government, a Pakistan on steroids.”

Reuel Marc Gerecht, a former Iranian targets officer for the CIA, also said he was not expecting a democratic transition in Iran in the near term. “I would expect some form of anarchy; that is always the case in Iran when the central government goes down,” he said. One of the problems for the internal opposition is that “the regime has done an excellent job of locating individuals who have charisma and neutralizing them. The opposition is there, but it’s not cohesive,” Gerecht added. That said, he stressed that there were too many factors that were unknown to really predict what would come next if Khamenei was toppled.

The most salient factor that will determine if a democratic transition in Iran is possible is how many mid-level officers in the internal security agencies of the state, like the Basij militia and the intelligence ministry, are willing to break ranks with their superiors and refuse to fire on protesters.

Gerecht said that the apparatus that arrested and killed demonstrators in the Woman, Life, Freedom demonstrations in 2022 and 2023 will likely carry out such orders. Sazegara, the former deputy prime minister, is optimistic that at least some of them can be turned. “Our strategy is, as much as possible, to support dissidents inside the IRGC and the army and the intelligence services to join the people,” he said. But any chance for such an uprising will have to wait until the war is over.
Seth Mandel: Iran Brought This On Itself
On January 28, 2024, Iran killed three American soldiers on a base in Jordan, injuring more than 40. On October 19, 2023, an Iranian militia in Yemen engaged the USS Carney destroyer in what the Wall Street Journal described as “the most intense combat a U.S. Navy warship had seen in the better part of a century, shooting down more than a dozen drones and four fast-flying cruise missiles.”

That “10-hour engagement” came, of course, just 12 days after Iran’s militia in Gaza invaded Israel, murdering 1,200—of which 41 were Americans.

Lost in Iran’s modern slaughter was the fact that October 2023 coincided with the 40th anniversary of a kind of villainous origin story for Tehran: the October 1983 bombing of the Marine barracks in Beirut, which killed 241 American servicemembers. In the intervening decades, that killing continued. But the bookends of 1983 and 2023 served as fitting brackets for a period of history run red with the blood of Americans. Iran’s attacks—as noted above—didn’t end. But Tehran had overplayed its hand and set in motion a great American backlash, leading to President Trump’s history-making order to strike at the heart of the Iranian nuclear-weapons program.

The Iranian threat, in other words, has not subsided. American civilians and soldiers live in a world made more dangerous by Iran’s constant plotting to harm them.

And so the idea that bombing a facility in Iran that had been evacuated of people but not of weaponizable nuclear material was an “escalation” is risible. More absurd still is the belief, apparently held by a growing number of Democratic politicians and an endless supply of Republican social-media jugheads, that Trump is hereby solely responsible for future Iranian militia threats to Americans abroad.

“Donald Trump shoulders complete and total responsibility for any adverse consequences that flow from his unilateral military action,” announced Hakeem Jeffries, the highest ranking Democrat in the House.

Jeffries is therefore predicting Iranian violence against Americans while at the same time freeing Iran from culpability for that violence. This man intends to be the next speaker of the House.

Adam Smith, ranking Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee, had this to say: “The path that the President has chosen risks unleashing a wider war in the region that is both incredibly unpredictable and treacherous and that threatens the safety and security of the United States, Israel, and ultimately the world.”

That statement is somewhat more reasonable than Jeffries’s, but again—this is the path Iran has chosen. Additionally, it will not make the world a more dangerous place than it would have been with a nuclear-armed Iran. Lastly, the presumptuousness to lecture Israelis on their own safety, especially in this case when they are telling us overwhelmingly the opposite of what Smith says, is poor form—as is, of course, blaming America for Iran’s aggression.
True stories of espionage, sabotage—and Divine Providence.
In the aftermath of yet another stunning Israeli operation inside Iran, many are wondering: how does the Mossad keep pulling this off?

How does a tiny nation, roughly the size of New Jersey and under constant existential threat, manage to penetrate the most hostile regime in the world time and again—slipping past the Revolutionary Guard, sabotaging nuclear ambitions, and rescuing lives in ways that would make a Hollywood screenwriter blush, or seem too far-fetched even for the big screen?

Of course, the professionalism, ingenuity, and sheer courage of Israel’s agents—combined with the cutting-edge innovation of the Startup Nation—play a central role. But from a Jewish perspective, there’s another truth too essential to ignore: hashgacha pratit, Divine providence—the belief that God guides history not only in sweeping arcs but also through intimate, hidden threads. And sometimes, the outcomes are so precise, so improbable, that we’re left with no plausible explanation—at least not one that leaves God out of the story.

Much of what we know about this shadow war comes from The Secret War with Iran by veteran Israeli journalist and intelligence expert Ronen Bergman. Drawing on hundreds of sources and interviews, his research offers a rare window into the secret victories that shaped the last four decades.

Below are five real-life operations, stretching from the Islamic Revolution in 1979 to the nuclear age, that show the fingerprints of both human brilliance and something greater. 1. The Escape from Iran (1979–1981): Smuggling a Community to Safety
After the fall of the Shah in 1979, Iran’s Jews faced a terrifying new reality. The Islamic regime labeled Zionism a capital offense, executed Jewish leader Habib Elghanian, and sowed fear among the country’s ancient Jewish community.

In response, Israeli intelligence launched a quiet, high-stakes operation to help Jews flee. Agents and collaborators smuggled thousands across borders using forged documents, bribes, and covert routes through Pakistan and Turkey. In one case, a rescuer even posed as a senior Pakistani official to escort families to safety.

Roughly 10,000 Jews escaped through these clandestine efforts, while tens of thousands more fled via informal means. To protect those still inside Iran, Israel kept its role secret.

It wasn’t just a logistical feat—it was a modern-day Exodus. In a time of chaos and persecution, Jewish lives were saved by a mix of courage, ingenuity, and, perhaps, something greater moving quietly behind the scenes.


Trump announces Israel-Iran ceasefire
U.S. President Donald Trump announced on Monday that Israel and Iran have agreed to a ceasefire and an end to the war between the two countries.

Trump said the ceasefire would begin in about six hours, at approximately midnight Eastern time, when both sides would conclude any ongoing military operations.

“It has been fully agreed by and between Israel and Iran that there will be a complete and total ceasefire,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform. “During each ceasefire, the other side will remain peaceful and respectful.”

“On the assumption that everything works as it should, which it will, I would like to congratulate both countries, Israel and Iran, on having the stamina, courage and intelligence to end what should be called ‘the 12-Day War,’” Trump said. “This is a war that could have gone on for years, and destroyed the entire Middle East, but it didn’t, and never will.”

“Congratulations, world, it’s time for peace,” he wrote in a second message.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, have not yet commented on the ceasefire agreement.


How the U.S. Attack on Iran Hurts Russia and China
The View from Washington
Israel’s successes, followed by America’s brief but effective bombing raid, has shattered the anti-American coalition of Tehran, Moscow, and Beijing. Iran faces a devastating collapse: its defenses pierced, its leadership eliminated, and its regional influence so weakened that its proxy, Hizballah, cannot muster the strength to confront Israel. For Moscow, this is a severe blow to a critical battlefield ally that supplied drones, technical expertise, and ideological unity. For Beijing, it upends the core of its Middle East strategy, which relies on affordable Iranian oil, access to Gulf trade routes, and a steadfast partner entirely outside the U.S. alliance system.

By striking Iran’s vital nuclear facilities, President Trump has seized this critical moment not only to support Israel but also to reverse a decade of decline that began under the Obama administration. That period allowed Russia, Iran, and China to expand their influence across the Middle East, capitalizing on perceptions of American withdrawal. For years, these adversaries exploited Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen as bases to project power, undermine U.S. interests, and weaken regional allies. Last weekend’s decisive strikes halt this trend, restoring American preeminence.

First, the military alignment with Israel proves that U.S. allies will not face existential threats alone. This commitment rebuilds global trust in America’s security guarantees, signaling that partnerships with Washington are backed by unwavering force.

Second, the strikes demolish the myth of the multipolar order promoted by China and Russia, a system presented as stable and respectful of sovereignty—but in fact reliant on fragile regimes like Iran’s. Tehran’s disintegration under pressure exposes the inherent weakness of this alternative framework.

Russia and China have long presented themselves to smaller nations as dependable alternatives to U.S. power, offering partnerships free of pressure or entanglement. Yet when the crisis arrived, they stood absent. Today, Khamenei faces an onslaught, and neither Moscow nor Beijing has rushed to his aid. Countries like Israel can count on America in moments of crisis, but Iran—like the Assad regime before it—can’t count on Russia or China when the going gets tough.

By supporting, leveraging, and ultimately joining in Israel’s campaign, President Trump has reasserted U.S. leadership at a rare moment of strategic opportunity, reestablishing America’s influence as the region’s defining power. The U.S.-Israel campaign has also opened the door to a new Middle East. By dismantling Tehran’s military and ideological foundations, this offensive has shattered the regional order that empowered anti-American proxies and emboldened America’s adversaries. With Iran weakened, the U.S. has an opportunity to strengthen its alliances with the moderate Arab states, while cementing Washington and Jerusalem as the architects of a revitalized regional balance.

After years of battling the so-called Shiite crescent—the alliance of Iranian proxies and satellites stretching from southern Lebanon to Syria and into Iraq—the U.S. and Israel have now replaced it with full-scale strategic encirclement. Trump’s coordination with Israel, the collapse of the Assad regime, and the pro-Western and even pro-Israeli inclinations of the Gulf States have trapped Iran and significantly weakened Russia and China’s position in the region. This has not only denied the latter powers strategic depth—the ability to project power through proxies and buffer zones—but also triggered a wider strategic dislocation: a breakdown in their capacity to coordinate military, political, and ideological efforts across the Middle East. The axis they built around Tehran is now fragmented and on the defensive.

Washington must now sustain this momentum. It should elevate Israel from a key regional ally to a central pillar of American power, not only in the Middle East but also in the global arena of great-power competition. This requires expanded joint-military planning, deeper coordination in intelligence and defense, and a reinforced commitment to the credibility only the United States can deliver. This is how America reminds the world who stands firm when it matters, and who does not.
Matti Friedman: After the Bombs
Reading Lolita in Tehran, the 2003 bestseller by Azar Nafisi, recounts her experience reading forbidden literature with Iranian women after the revolution. The new movie version was shot by the veteran Israeli director Eran Riklis, with Rome standing in for Tehran. (The film was released in Israel and part of Europe, and has garnered prizes and applause at several festivals, but doesn’t yet have a U.S. distributor.) The stars are seven striking Iranian actresses, with the lead played by Golshifteh Farahani, who had to flee regime persecution after starring in Ridley Scott’s Body of Lies, and who now lives in France. “Working with an Israeli director was like another page being added to my dossier in the courts of the Islamic Republic,” Farahani said in an interview released with the movie. “I just understood that if I’m afraid of that, then I cannot expect the world to go toward peace.”

When I watched the film at home on Saturday night—unaware that American B-2s were flying toward their targets in Iran with their history-altering bunker busters—I had to mute a scene set in 1988 where air-raid sirens wail in Tehran in the Iran-Iraq war in order to avoid sending my own family running toward our shelter in Jerusalem in June 2025. The real siren sounded in our city a few hours later.

After the American attacks early Sunday, I called Riklis, the director, and found him in Paris—stranded abroad, like many thousands of Israelis, because of the closure of our airspace. There have been Iranian missile strikes near his Tel Aviv home, and the building that houses his office was damaged. How does he see his Israeli-Iranian movie at this unprecedented Israeli-Iranian moment?

He has always known, he said, that there are similarities between Israelis and Iranians. Making a movie with Iranian actresses only strengthened this feeling. “Both societies have fanatics, but in a fundamental way we both love life, and we both come from cultures that are old, deep, and complex,” Riklis told me. “There’s a connection between us that transcends this war, and there is incredible potential between these two peoples.”

The clerical regime, he said, is not just the enemy of Israelis, but of the rebellious and independent women in the film. The connection between Israelis and Iranians is personified onscreen by the actress cast in the role of Nezhat, the main character’s mother—the most famous Iranian in this country, Rita Jahan Foruz, a beloved Israeli diva who was born in Tehran, and who is known here only by her first name.

At 70, Riklis is old enough to have fought the Egyptians as a 19-year-old soldier in the Yom Kippur War of 1973, and then to have flown to Cairo as a civilian after a peace agreement was signed less than a decade later. He knows that things can change. The past 20 months have been awful, one of the worst periods in Israel’s history. But as I write these lines, with Israel’s enemies and friends digesting the stunning deployment of American power last night, and after an Israeli campaign that has crippled our enemies and altered the Middle East, the possibility of something better seems possible.

In the past 10 days of war, the line between Israel and Iran has been violated—even erased. Our pilots fly freely in Iranian skies. Our streets are littered with Iranian shrapnel. Over my roof, every night, I see fiery projectiles launched a few minutes earlier by someone in Iran—perhaps by a person who would rather be doing something else, like reading Lolita. If the lines have been blurred in this way, maybe they can be blurred in others.
My Pacifist Grandfather Was Murdered by Iran. Here’s What the World Should Know.
Albert Votaw—for whom I am named—was born in 1925 in Media, Pennsylvania, the first son of my great-grandmother, who had immigrated from Russia, and my great-grandfather, Ernest, whose Pennsylvania Quaker family had been in the United States since the late 1600s. From his upbringing he inherited a rock-ribbed Quaker pacifism, which led him to become a conscientious objector as a young man during World War II. His service to our country was to be a medical test subject rather than carrying arms against his religious beliefs.

After the war, Albert began a career in international aid. This was a heady period for America and our citizens abroad; our expats were helping to rebuild war-ravaged Europe and build what was then known as the developing world. With the Marshall Plan he set off to post-war France, and it was there that he met my grandmother, Estera Votaw, an exotic and charming young Hungarian who had survived the Holocaust and was now studying at the Sorbonne. Despite her experiences losing her parents and much of her extended family to the Nazis, Eszti had an irrepressible spark and a cosmopolitan flair. They married in Chicago in 1953.

Albert and Eszti would go on to have four daughters—my mother their second—but that did not stop them from adventuring. In 1966, Albert was posted to the Ivory Coast as a United States Agency for International Development (USAID) official, where my grandparents spent nearly 15 years. Then it was off to Tunisia, back to Washington, D.C., and then to Bangkok in 1981. My grandparents were an upbeat and flamboyant couple, collecting West African art, shuttling their daughters around Europe for summer vacations, and returning to the States to visit relatives with many stories to tell. Everywhere the couple went, they created wide circles of expat and international friends, hosting parties, and venturing far afield from the path of most Americans, in an era before world travel became the norm for a certain class of people.

In the spring of 1983, the U.S. government transferred Albert to Lebanon, where he was the head of the housing office for USAID.

Two weeks after he arrived, on April 18, 1983, Iranian-backed Hezbollah terrorists drove a van packed with 2,000 pounds of explosives into the U.S. embassy in downtown Beirut. They killed 17 Americans and nearly 40 Lebanese, maiming over a hundred more people. The attack shattered the glass of buildings nearly a mile away—and tore a hole in my family tree.
Over 70,000 Israelis have returned home via sea, land, air since start of Iran campaign
Since Israel launched a campaign of airstrikes in Iran to decimate its nuclear and ballistic missile programs on June 13, more than 71,608 Israelis returned home via land border crossings, the sea and the air, according to data by the Population and immigration Authority.

Israel’s airspace has been largely closed since the Israel Defense Forces began carrying out airstrikes on Iran, with exceptions only for a very limited number of approved repatriation flights during daylight hours only.

The closure has left many thousands of traveling Israelis scrambling for a way to get back home. Israeli airlines El Al, Arkia, Israir, and Air Haifa started operating repatriation flights on Wednesday to gradually bring back the more than 100,000 Israelis estimated to be stranded abroad.

Between June 13 and June 21, 39,776 people entered the country via land border crossings with Egypt and Jordan, which have remained open since the conflict with Iran started, according to data by the Population and Immigration Authority. From the sea, 6,499 Israelis traveled back, mostly from Cyprus, and 25,333 Israelis flew home on repatriation flights.

From June 13 to June 21, 33,685 Israelis left the country. About 27,920 exited via land border crossings, 2,645 via the sea, and 3,120 on flights.
John Spencer: No, US strikes on Iran are not the start of a new 'forever war' in the Middle East
This was not a prelude to war. It was a deliberate, proportional military action to send a clear signal. Iran’s path to a nuclear bomb will not be tolerated. Not diplomatically. Not politically. Not militarily. This was not a hypothetical threat. It was real, immediate, and accelerating.

Some will say military action risks escalation. That Iran will retaliate. But this moment did not begin with the United States or Israel. It began with Iran’s continued defiance of international nuclear agreements and its rapid acceleration toward a weapon. Iran has enriched uranium to near weapons grade, buried its program deep underground, and paired it with increasingly long-range ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads. This is the escalation. It is not theoretical. It is deliberate. And it has brought the region to the edge of a strategic crisis.

Waiting did not reduce the threat. It allowed it to harden. Every day of delay gave Iran more time to disperse its program, develop more advanced delivery systems, and raise the cost of future action. The window to prevent a nuclear-armed Iran was closing. Acting when we did was not escalation. It was prevention.

This is also not a partisan issue. Since World War II, nearly every US president, regardless of party, has used military force without explicit prior congressional authorization when core national security interests were at stake. President Biden did it in Syria. President Obama did it in Libya. President Reagan did it in Grenada. The War Powers Resolution has never been a meaningful constraint when the executive judged the risk to be urgent and the mission limited. President Donald Trump, as commander in chief, has acted decisively to support Israel, degrade Iran’s most dangerous capabilities, and deter further aggression. That is presidential leadership within the bounds of long-standing precedent.

So to those shouting “Iraq” or “Afghanistan” from the sidelines, I hear you. I fought in Iraq. I have studied these wars my entire adult life. But you are applying the wrong history to the wrong context. This is not a forever war. This is not occupation. This is not regime change. This is preemption. It is decisive action to prevent the single most destabilizing development in the region: A nuclear-armed Islamic Republic of Iran.

This is about stopping Iran from getting the bomb. Nothing more. But also nothing less.
Regime Change is a Strategic Necessity
Ending the 1953 Myth
NBC's article also trots out the tired mythology surrounding the 1953 CIA-backed coup against then Iranian Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadegh — an event often misrepresented as the genesis of Iran's anti-Western stance. Let's clarify the facts.

Mossadegh was not "elected by popular vote", he was appointed by the Shah, per Iran's constitutional structure at the time. When he was legally dismissed for unconstitutionally dissolving the elected parliament by a dubious disputed referendum — he refused to step down. That, not the CIA's involvement, constituted the real break with legality, or a coup. Furthermore, the clerics who later formed the Islamic Republic were no fans of Mossadegh. They feared his secularism and his ties to the Communist Tudeh Party, and they supported the Shah's reinstatement.

To say that 1953 "poisoned" the Iranian people against the West is a convenient simplification that ignores the real drivers of Iran's radicalism: the 1979 Islamic Revolution and the ideology of Khomeinism. Anti-Americanism was not born in 1953 — it was institutionalized in 1979 by Khomeini's political Islam who was vehemently opposed to Mossadegh and either executed, imprisoned or exiled Mossadgeh's supporters after he came to power.

The Stakes Now
The debate about regime change in Iran is not just academic. It's happening in real-time, in the aftermath of U.S. strikes, in the corridors of power in Tehran, and in the whispers of dissent echoing through Iranian cities.

NBC, Time, the Washington Post, New York Times and those who share repetitive outlook would have us believe that all options are off the table — because mistakes were made in the past. But mistakes were made because of poor execution, not because the goals themselves were illegitimate. If we allow those errors to harden into doctrine, we are essentially conceding the field to regimes like Iran's — regimes that will not stop at repression inside their borders but will project violence far beyond them.

Regime change in Iran is not just a moral imperative. It is increasingly a strategic one. And the sooner we stop hiding behind the ghosts of Iraq and start building a smarter, more focused path forward, learning from past mistakes, the better the outcome will be — for Iranians, for the region, and for the world.
Israel and the U.S. Just Scored a Major Victory. Here’s What to Worry about Next
While the president’s decision to bomb three key components of the Iranian nuclear program was undoubtedly a wise one, and makes both America and Israel safer in the long run, it is not without risks. Mark Dubowitz and Ben Cohen explain:

[One] particular concern is the fate of more than 400 kilograms of nuclear weapons-grade uranium concealed by the regime at Isfahan. The whereabouts of this stockpile are presently unknown. . . . In addition, an even more deeply buried enrichment site than Fordow, known as Pickaxe Mountain, is now under construction at Natanz.

It’s not clear how much damage that facility—said to be immune from the massive ordinance penetrators dropped on Fordow—sustained in Saturday’s strikes. If it survived, Pickaxe Mountain could allow Iran to reconstitute its nuclear-weapons program. Outside of the nuclear program, significant risks remain on the ground.

The United States has 40,000 troops in the Middle East, now readying to both pre-empt and respond to Iranian missile attacks on their bases as well as on U.S. allies. Iran’s Houthi-rebel proxy in Yemen may resume its campaign of strikes against the U.S. naval presence and commercial shipping in the Straits of Hormuz, once again shutting down access to the Suez Canal. In Lebanon, Hizballah appears to be refraining from joining the fight but remains a threat.

Should Iran’s tottering regime reach a point of collapse, it could well decide to opt for martyrdom in a blaze of glory—with strikes against Israel, Sunni Arab nations whom it regards as “Zionist collaborators,” as well as American, Jewish, and Israeli targets in Europe, North America, and beyond. . . . What’s critical now is for the U.S. to remain engaged—using its political clout and unmatched military capabilities to defend its interests in the Middle East, in partnership with a strong Israeli ally and perhaps, one day, with a free Iran.
Top Israeli Journalist: US Strike Destroyed Iran's Centrifuges, Trapped Enriched Uranium Underground
The U.S. strike on Iranian nuclear facilities wiped out the Islamic Republic's centrifuges and buried its stockpile of highly enriched uranium deep underground, according to Amit Segal, one of Israel's most well-connected journalists.

"There isn't a single centrifuge left in Iran, as far as I understand," Segal, the chief political analyst for Israel's Channel 12, said during a Monday appearance on CNN. "Natanz is fully destroyed. So [are] Esfahan and Fordow, especially the site of the centrifuges."

Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium, meanwhile, is likely "locked" beneath the rubble at Fordow and Natanz, Segal said. "As far as I understand … most, if not all, of the enriched uranium lies under the ruins of Fordow and Esfahan."

American forces on Saturday used seven B-2 stealth bombers and dropped 14 bunker busters in the strike, according to Axios, while other reports indicate that they launched at least 30 Tomahawk cruise missiles at Esfahan and Natanz. U.S. and Israeli officials have confirmed that all three nuclear sites suffered significant damage.

"I think Iranians were not aware of how devastating this attack [was] going to be, especially the American one," Segal went on. "They didn't anticipate the Israeli attack, let alone the American one."

"One of the proofs is that the military leadership slept at their homes [on] the night where the attack began," he said. "So I think it would be fair to assume that they haven't smuggled the uranium."
How a shift to CENTCOM enabled close US-Israel coordination against Iran
The United States’ direct, devastating strikes on Iran’s three core nuclear facilities, including the heavily fortified Fordow enrichment plant, early on June 22 marked a historic turning point in the military campaign to prevent a nuclear-armed Iran.

This unprecedented American military intervention, coordinated with Israel’s ongoing “Operation Rising Lion,” was made possible by a quiet but highly significant shift that occurred years earlier: The transfer of Israel from the area of responsibility of the U.S. European Command (EUCOM) to that of the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), which is responsible for the Middle East.

The American strikes involved six U.S. Air Force B-2 “Spirit” stealth bombers flying a 37-hour nonstop mission from their base in Missouri to drop 13.5-ton GBU-57 “bunker-buster” bombs on the deeply buried Fordow facility.

Simultaneously, U.S. Navy submarines launched approximately 30 Tomahawk cruise missiles against the nuclear sites at Natanz and Isfahan, with two additional bunker busters also hitting Natanz’s underground halls. Battle damage assessments on the targets are underway.

The practical results of this new architecture have been on display even before the American strikes. During Iran’s retaliatory missile salvos, U.S. systems like the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) deployed in Israel and ship-based AEGIS missile defense systems in the region have played an important role in helping Israel with missile interceptions.

Reported offensive coordination was also seen in the strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites. According to an i24NEWS report, Israel was notified of the impending U.S. strike on June 19, when Washington requested Israeli assistance, including striking Iranian surface-to-air missile batteries to clear a path for the American bombers.

The foundation for this level of cooperation was laid in January 2021, when the Trump administration formally moved Israel into CENTCOM’s domain.


Holocaust survivor confirmed as fourth fatality of Iranian strike on Petah Tikva
A ninety-five year old Holocaust survivor has been identified as the fourth fatal victim of an Iranian ballistic missile strike on the central Israel suburb of Petah Tikva on Monday 16th June.

Yvette Shmilovitch leaves behind three granddaughters and four great-grandchildren.

Petah Tikva Mayor Rami Greenberg said he sends “a big hug to the family” to “strengthen them at this difficult time.”

According to Greenberg, “the Petah Tikva Municipality will accompany the family and assist as much as necessary, as it does with the other families who lost their loved ones in the severe attack. We bow our heads and mourn the murder of four of the city’s residents who were killed following the missile attack from Iran.”

Twenty-five people have been murdered in the Iranian regime missile attacks.


Human Rights Groups Refuse To Condemn Iran’s Strike on Israeli Hospital
Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch, and other prominent human rights groups that frequently launch baseless attacks against Israel have so far declined to condemn Iran’s strike on an Israeli hospital that injured at least 80 people.

The Washington Free Beacon reached out to over a dozen self-proclaimed human rights groups that are some of the loudest and most frequent critics of Israel to ask for comment on Iran’s airstrike on the Soroka Medical Center in southern Israel on Thursday. The bombing destroyed the hospital’s surgical ward and was one of many Iranian airstrikes to hit civilian targets since the conflict between Israel and Iran turned hot earlier this month.

Amnesty International told the Free Beacon that it was "unable to comment at present as our research team is still looking into this incident." It has not taken the same sort of caution with Israel, continuing to denounce it on social media and accusing the Jewish state of deliberately imposing "genocidal conditions against Palestinians in the occupied Gaza strip."

When Israel raided Al Shifa Hospital in Gaza—a Hamas command center—Amnesty International described the operation as "a devastating attack on human rights."

Amnesty International criticized Israel’s military action in Iran earlier this week, saying the "world must not allow Israel to use this military escalation to divert attention away from its ongoing genocide against Palestinians in the occupied Gaza Strip, its illegal occupation of the whole Occupied Palestinian Territory (OPT) and its system of apartheid against Palestinians."

Two other human rights groups, Nonviolence International and PAX for Peace, told the Free Beacon they were unable to comment because of staff holidays. Earlier this week, PAX condemned Israel "for this illegal military action" in Iran and submitted a petition to lawmakers calling for a "complete arms embargo against Israel."

The Canadian Foreign Policy Institute said Israel—not Iran—bears the blame for the attack on its hospital.

"Israel should not put civilian infrastructure near its military installations," one of the group’s board members said in an emailed statement. "Israel has bombed hospitals dozens of times in Gaza, usually claiming it is targeting Hamas."

While Iran claimed it was targeting an Israeli military command center, the outpost is located a mile away from the hospital and was not hit in the strike.

Only one group, Churches for Middle East Peace, responded with a statement that condemned Iran for the attack, saying that hospitals "must be protected as safe places where healing can occur without fear of bombardment and war." Half of the statement also criticized Israel’s actions in Gaza.

Human Rights Watch, the American Friends Service Committee, Adalah, Democracy for the Arab World Now (DAWN), CODEPINK, the Euro-Mediterranean Human Rights Monitor, Oxfam International, the International Federation for Human Rights, Just Peace Advocates, and the European Council on Foreign Relations did not respond to requests for comment.


Israeli Operatives Called Iranian Military Commanders With a Warning: Flee the Country or Die
Israeli intelligence operatives personally phoned several of Iran’s senior military commanders shortly after preemptive strikes began last week, warning them to flee the country or be assassinated along with their wives and children, according to audio messages published Monday.

During one such call, an excerpt of which was obtained by the Washington Post, an Israeli agent informed one of Tehran’s senior military leaders that he had 12 hours to leave the country or otherwise face death. The Israeli operation was meant to sow discord and fear among Tehran’s senior leadership in the hours after the assault on Iranian nuclear sites began.

"I can advise you now, you have 12 hours to escape with your wife and child," the Israeli intelligence operative says in Farsi. "Otherwise, you’re on our list right now."

"We’re closer to you than your own neck vein," the caller adds. "Put this in your head. May God protect you."

The Iranian military leader was then instructed to film and publish a video of himself publicly disavowing the country’s hardline regime.

"How should I send it to you?" the general asks.

"I will send you a Telegram ID," the Israeli agent replies. "Send it."

A second similar call was also placed to "another senior Iranian official" close to Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamenei, according to the Post, which withheld the names of those military leaders reached by Israel.

It is unclear whether the military leader made or sent the video, the Post reported.


German-Jewish cyclist held in Iran since 2024, Iran’s state media say
A German citizen identified as Marek Kaufman, who is said to be Jewish, has been under arrest in Iran for over a year on suspicion of espionage, Iran’s state-run Mehr news agency acknowledged Saturday.

Iranian authorities allege that Kaufman, who was in Iran on a tourist visa, was caught cycling near sensitive military and nuclear sites in the central province of Markazi, the report said, likely referencing Arak. The news item repeatedly referred to Kaufman as Jewish.

According to Mehr, officials accuse Kaufman of gathering information about missile installations, drone routes and air force bases. According to the London-based outlet Iran International, Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps intelligence officers apprehended him in an area marked with military warning signs.

A five-minute video aired by Mehr appears to show the German man acknowledging the presence of military zones. In the footage, he presents himself as a bicycle tourist and admits he realized he was in a restricted area where photography and filming were prohibited.

“It was definitely this, but in my memory it looked different than this. I thought that it was some military place. I also wrote that it was some military place. I only knew that it is forbidden to take videos and pictures or give information about it away,” Kaufman is seen saying in the heavily-edited video item.
Former IDF Spokesman to Newsmax: Hormuz Blockade Would Last Only Minutes
Conricus emphasized that Iran retains multiple tools for escalation, including targeting American or Israeli assets and potentially blocking the Strait of Hormuz, a key maritime chokepoint through which one-fifth of global oil passes.

"They can attack American forces. They can close the Straits of Hormuz. They can unleash the remaining ballistic missiles ... towards Israel, and they can try to hit U.S., Israeli, or Jewish targets abroad," he said. "All of those tools are at their disposal."

But he warned that any Iranian military action — particularly a move to close the strait — would be met with overwhelming force.

"It would be temporary because, militarily speaking, the Iranians are really in a very sensitive situation," Conricus said. "Israel has achieved aerial dominance. The Iranians do not have freedom of operations in Iran.

"Their Navy, their naval assets, their shore-to-sea launchers would be exposed to significant firepower of U.S. naval assets that are deployed in the region," he said. "Any Iranian naval vessel or any missile launcher, anything else that would be deployed, would be taken out, I think, quite swiftly.

"The U.S., with its tremendous military capabilities already fully deployed in the area, would be more than capable of doing it. That's why I'm saying that the smart action of the Iranians would be to de-escalate."

Still, he noted, Iran has often refused diplomacy. "They've had many off-ramps, but they haven't chosen them so far," Conricus said. "When your enemy is making mistakes, [you] don't interrupt him.

"Probably here is this tremendous hubris that the Iranians have carried themselves with. They think that they can continue to boss around and bully around nations, countries, and people in the region. They've been used to that for many years. Israel has now put a stop to that. And the U.S. has had the final say. And I hope that the Iranians will be smart."
Iranian Attack on US Base in Qatar Falls Flat
Iran launched ballistic missiles at a major U.S. military base in Qatar and quickly claimed to have "destroyed" it. None of the missiles caused any significant damage, and the attack yielded no casualties.

Qatar’s defense ministry said it intercepted the missiles aimed at Al-Udeid Air Base near Doha, the largest U.S. military installation in the Middle East, which houses an operations center of the U.S. Central Command, the U.S. Air Force, and thousands of military personnel.

The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps praised the attack as "devastating and powerful," while Iran's national security council said it "destroyed the U.S. air base in Al-Udeid." But Qatar, which has been one of Iran’s closest allies in the region, denounced the strike as a "flagrant violation of Qatar’s sovereignty and airspace."

President Donald Trump wrote in a Truth Social post that the attack was unsuccessful.

"Iran has officially responded to our Obliteration of their Nuclear Facilities with a very weak response, which we expected, and have very effectively countered," he wrote. "There have been 14 missiles fired—13 were knocked down, and 1 was 'set free,' because it was headed in a nonthreatening direction. I am pleased to report that NO Americans were harmed, and hardly any damage was done. Most importantly, they've gotten it out of their 'system,' and there will, hopefully, be no further HATE. I want to thank Iran for giving us early notice, which made it possible for no lives to be lost, and nobody to be injured."


After Trump Talks of ‘Regime Change,’ Israel Carries Out Strikes Targeting Iranian Tools of Repression
Israel on Monday destroyed multiple targets the Iranian regime uses to stifle popular unrest and police internal dissent, potentially paving a way for the country’s repressed population to rise against its hardline rulers. The strikes came just a day after President Donald Trump put out a call to "MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN" and signaled support for regime change.

The Jewish state shifted the focus of its campaign from the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program to regime power centers and Tehran’s internal security apparatus. The strikes were meant to further destabilize a regime already on the ropes after the United States dropped massive bunker-buster bombs and tomahawk missiles on its three most significant nuclear sites.

More than 50 Israeli fighter jets struck "military command centers" across Tehran, including its Basij Headquarters, an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) outpost that enforces Islamic law and detains those who violate it, according to the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). Other targets included the Sayyid-al-Shuhada Corps, a homeland defense faction that suppresses internal unrest, and the General Intelligence Directorate of the Internal Security forces, which oversees Tehran’s domestic security wing and disseminates propaganda.

Israel also landed a direct hit on Iran’s notorious Evin prison, dramatically blowing the doors off a penitentiary the regime has long used to torture dissidents and even hold Americans hostage. Israel reportedly cut power in the area, allowing any number of political prisoners to flee the facility. Israeli leaders made clear through targeting such a powerful symbol of repression that they intend to cripple Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamenei’s centralized ruling authority.

"We warned Iran time and again: Stop targeting civilians! They continued, including this morning," Israeli foreign affairs minister Gideon Sa'ar wrote on X. "Our response: Viva la libertad, carajo!"


IAF bombs Evin Prison as Iranian missile barrage damages ‘strategic infrastructure’ in southern Israel
Israel on Monday bombed the gates of Iran’s notorious Evin Prison, where the regime holds and tortures dissidents, and conducted follow-up strikes near the Fordow nuclear facility a day after it was bombed by the U.S.

Evin has been a symbol of the regime’s oppression for decades. The Tehran prison is where the regime has incarcerated activists, protesters, journalists, dual nationals and others, and used torture methods including beatings, solitary confinement and sexual abuse. Iran expert Ben Sabti told Jewish Insider last week that Iranians have called on Israel to strike prisons so that dissident leaders held inside could escape and push for the toppling of the regime.

The strike on the prison was one of several by Israeli fighter jets, targeting “bodies of government oppression in the heart of Tehran,” Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said on Monday morning. The military struck the headquarters of the Basij, the regime’s internal enforcement arm, which has been instrumental in enforcing Islamic law and suppressing protest; the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ internal security command center; the Alborz Corps, responsible for security and regime stability in the Tehran district; and a clock in the city’s Palestine Square counting down to Israel’s destruction by 2040.

“These command centers have significant military effect and additionally they impact the regime’s ability to impose control. Striking these military targets harms the Iranian regime’s military capabilities,” the IDF Spokesperson’s Office stated.

Israel also conducted follow-up strikes on the access routes to the Fordow nuclear facility on Monday, the IDF confirmed. The strikes came a day after the U.S. struck the complex, which is under a mountain, with bunker-buster bombs.

The full extent of the damage done to the site, as well as facilities in Natanz and Isfahan, remained unclear after the strike by U.S. bombers early Sunday morning.


Call me Back Podcast: EMERGENCY EPISODE: AMERICA STRIKES IRAN - with Nadav Eyal and Amit Segal
Around 8pm ET on Saturday June 21st, President Trump announced that the U.S. launched an attack on three Iranian nuclear sites: Natanz, Esfahan, and Fordow.

At 10pm ET, in a live address from the White House, the President called the attacks on Iran a “spectacular military success” and said Iran’s three targeted nuclear facilities had been “completely and totally obliterated.”

Joining us to unpack what we know about the attack and what Iran might do next and what happens next for the U.S. and Israel are Call me Back regulars Nadav Eyal and Amit Segal.

We will be following these historic developments closely here at Call me Back. Stay tuned for more news updates and episodes this week.




U.S. strikes Iran: President Trump says 'monumental' damage done to Iranian nuclear sites
FDD's Andrea Stricker joins LiveNOW's Austin Westfall to discuss where the Iranian nuclear program stands after the United States attacked three of the country's nuclear sites on Saturday, an operation that President Trump said caused 'monumental' damage.




Commentary PodCast: Destroying Nuclear Sites Is Good, Not Bad
Today's podcast explores the strange disappointment of so-called "arms control" experts at the effort to eliminate Iran's nuclear program—which they seem to oppose on the grounds that it threatens efforts on paper to control nuclear proliferation. Also, Trump as a gift to the Jewish people and the dangers of tomorrow's NYC mayoral primary.
Ben Shapiro: BREAKING: Trump DESTROYS Iranian Nuclear Program!
The US obliterates Iran’s nuclear sites and Trump warns them to make peace.

00:00 - Intro
1:06 - Trump Obliterates Iranian Nuclear Program
17:17 - How Trump Came To The Decision
25:10 - Tehran Orders Straits of Hormuz Closed
29:06 - Russians Issue Threats
30:53 - Amit Segal
42:14 - Outro


The Free Press: The Fate of Iran’s Nuclear Program
Michael Oren, Jay Solomon, and Matti Friedman join Bari for the full briefing.


‘Wouldn’t make sense’ for Russia to support Iran in escalating conflict with Israel
Former IDF spokesperson Lieutenant Colonel Jonathan Conricus discusses the meeting between Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

“The interesting statement that apparently was released by the Kremlin is that Russia seeks to support the Iranian people, that’s an interesting statement,” Mr Conricus told Sky News host Sharri Markson.

“It wouldn’t make sense for the Russians to invest resources that they apparently don’t have a lot of after one of their allies that is apparently not doing very well on the battlefield.”




‘Straight to the Kremlin’: Putin meets with Iranian officials
Sky News host James Macpherson discusses Iran’s Foreign Minister meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

“Iran’s Foreign Minister meeting with Russian officials there and with Vladimir Putin,” Mr Macpherson said.

“How important is Iran’s relationship with Russia?”


‘A regime of hell’: Iran’s leadership is ‘hard to predict’
Bar-Ilan University Professor of Politics Gerald Steinberg says it is “hard to predict” what will happen to the Iranian regime.

“It has been a regime of hell, a regime of terror,” Mr Steinberg said.

“They built this ring of fire … that is all gone now, and they really don’t know what to do; it is hard to predict.”


Wild moment Israel’s Deputy Foreign Minister seeks cover after sirens blare in Israel
Israeli Deputy Foreign Minister Sharren Haskel speaks to Sky News Australia live from Tel Aviv, shortly after being forced to take shelter as sirens echoed through the city.


Jonathan Sacerdoti: Live from Tel Aviv: USA bombs nuclear sites in Iran. Jonathan Sacerdoti speaks as missiles strike
US strikes Iranian nuclear facilities. Jonathan Sacerdoti with live analysis from the bomb shelter in Tel Aviv.

"This was the logical and necessary conclusion of a path the Islamic Republic of Iran refused to abandon. The United States and Israel did not want this war."


travelingisrael.com: God bless America – Goodbye Islamic Iran, the Soviet Union, Nazi Germany
The United States just struck Iran.
Where this will lead — no one knows.
But one thing is clear: America did the right thing.

This video argues why this moment matters.
Why this isn’t just a military operation, but a moral statement.
Why America, despite its flaws, continues to stand on the frontlines of the global fight for freedom — just like it did against Nazi Germany, the Soviet Union, and Communist North Korea.

From Berlin to Baghdad, from Seoul to Tehran — history has shown:
When America stands firm, evil falls.

This is not a call for blind war.
It’s a call to recognize the difference between appeasing tyranny — and resisting it.

📌 Featuring historical parallels, uncomfortable truths, and one simple question:
Which side would you rather live on?

America isn’t perfect — but it still fights for freedom.
And today, it reminded the world of that.




Tucker Carlson claims Qatar doesn’t need U.S. base
As Iran targeted Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar in retaliation for the U.S. airstrikes against the Iranian nuclear program, Tucker Carlson claimed on his podcast that the air base exists to protect Israel.

“That base exists to protect Israel, by the way. I know we’re constantly, Bari Weiss is constantly attacking Qatar,” the conservative commentator said, referring to the founder and editor of The Free Press. “Qatar has done more to protect Israel. But anyway, hosting this base that they don’t need at all, it’s the richest country in the world. They’re doing it to be nice.”

According to a joint statement issued by the U.S. and Qatar in 2020, Al Udeid base supports joint operations aimed at maritime security and other regional security concerns.

As U.S. Central Command’s forward headquarters, Al Udeid has also played a critical role in nearly every U.S. operation within the Middle East and North Africa since 2009. These operations include the 2021 Afghanistan pullout, combat missions countering the Islamic State, and air missions within Iraq.

President Donald Trump recently visited the base during his tour through the Middle East and spoke to American personnel stationed there. During the speech he mentioned several new arms sales to Qatar and praised the base. “Qatar will also be investing $10 billion to support this massive base in the coming years,” Trump said. “There is no place like it, they say.”


LA Sheriff's Department Posts, Deletes Statement Mourning 'Victims' of US Strike on Iranian Nuclear Facilities
The Los Angeles County Sheriff's Department posted and then removed a statement expressing condolences over the U.S. bombing of Iran's nuclear facilities, which President Donald Trump ordered to stop the Islamic Republic from developing nuclear weapons.

"Our hearts go out to the victims and families impacted by the recent bombings in Iran," the department said in the since-deleted statement on X, which was screenshotted by Fox News's Bill Melugin. "While this tragic event occurred overseas, the Los Angeles County Sheriff's Department is closely monitoring the situation alongside our local, state, and federal partners."

After the statement drew public backlash, the sheriff's department issued an apology Sunday evening, calling the post "offensive and inappropriate."

"This post was unacceptable, made in error, and does not reflect the views of Sheriff Robert G. Luna or the Department," the department said. "As a law enforcement agency, we do not comment on foreign policy or military matters. Our mission remains solely focused on protecting public safety and serving our diverse communities."

The first post came a day after Trump announced that the United States had carried out a "very successful attack" on Iran's top three nuclear sites. American forces used 7 B-2 stealth bombers and dropped 14 bunker busters in the strikes, Axios reported, with other reports indicating that they launched at least 30 Tomahawk cruise missiles at Esfahan and Natanz. All three nuclear sites have been significantly damaged, according to U.S. and Israeli officials.

The L.A. Sheriff's Department's initial statement drew sharp criticism from the watchdog group Stop Antisemitism. "We sincerely hope your account was hacked," the group said. "There were no victims in last night's successful targeting of Iran's nuclear sites."




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