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Monday, February 03, 2025

Why is there an Egyptian exception for Trump's freezing of foreign aid?



There is a great deal of discussion and angst about the current Trump administration's freezing of most foreign aid. Typical is this Washington Post editorial:
Foreign assistance is one of the more misunderstood items in the federal budget. In creates an enormous bang for a relatively small buck. American aid supports thousands of programs across 204 countries. It provides lifesaving drugs for millions of people afflicted with HIV/AIDS and malaria. It purifies drinking water, helps rid former war zones of leftover land mines, and trains local police to combat human trafficking and the illegal wildlife trade.

For many people around the world, aid is also the most visible symbol of U.S. power — soft power — and a tangible demonstration of America’s decency. Amounting to $68 billion in fiscal 2023, foreign aid is only about 1 percent of the federal budget. Yet it has long been in the crosshairs of some fiscal conservatives and other critics who deem it a waste of taxpayer dollars that could be better spent at home.

 One could argue about the bang for the buck of foreign aid. For example, a significant part of Jordan's GDP - more than 2.5% - comes directly from US aid. Does this prompt Jordan to vote with the US in the UN? Does it promote Jordanian respect for human rights? Does it promote a warmer peace with Israel than it would have otherwise? 

US foreign aid should be closer tied to US interests. This furtherance of US interests can of course be indirect but the programs should be monitored to see how effective they are, and not become self-sustaining programs that run only on inertia. Similarly, programs to fight disease and epidemics help the the entire world, including the US, in the long run, and should continue to be funded while they are effective. 

The funding freeze had several exceptions:

On President Donald Trump’s first day back in office, he signed an executive order suspending all foreign aid for 90 days, pending a review, saying the “foreign aid industry and bureaucracy are not aligned with American interests and in many cases antithetical to American values.” Secretary of State Marco Rubio followed up with a cable on Jan. 24 to all U.S. diplomatic outposts stopping work on most foreign aid programs during the review period, which is supposed to be completed by the time the freeze expires. Initially, exemptions were made only for emergency food aid and military assistance to Israel and Egypt — and conspicuously not for aid to Ukraine or Taiwan. Then on Tuesday, perhaps bowing to global outrage and criticism, Rubio issued an additional waiver for lifesaving humanitarian assistance.
Military aid to Israel is recognized by all fair minded observers as a great investment in US security. The technological advances that Israel achieves, its battlefield methodologies, its intelligence, all help the US defend itself and save billions of dollars. I recently linked to an article at National Defense about Israel's use of directed energy weapons, and it said:
As the report, “Directed Energy Weapon Supply Chains” published by the National Defense Industrial Association’s Emerging Technologies Institute in January 2024 pointed out, the United States has no established laser weapon industrial base to speak of — no supply chain, no factories, no cadre of workers. The U.S. military has fewer than 20 laser weapon systems, all of them built in laboratories, according to a list provided by the Pentagon’s Joint Directed Energy Transition Office.

In a briefing with reporters in early December at the headquarters of Rafael Advanced Defense Systems, company chairman Yuval Steinitz did little to mask his pride, calling the Iron Beam a scientific and technological breakthrough and emphasizing that Israel had accomplished what so many others could not.
Israel is a laboratory for defense research that the US benefits from mightily.

But why should Egypt be an exception?

Certainly the massive US aid to Egypt has come about to encourage it to keep the peace treaty with Israel. But Egypt benefits from that treaty anyway - primarily by saving the immense military expense of defending its border with Israel.

But recently, Egypt has been using the US aid to build a military capability whose purpose, to put it generously, is unclear.
 Israeli envoy to the UN Danny Danon raised concerns about Egypt’s military expansion, questioning its necessity in the absence of threats.

“They spend hundreds of millions of dollars on modern military equipment every year, yet they have no threats on their borders,” Danon said recently during a Kol BaRama radio interview. “Why do they need all these submarines and tanks? After October 7, this should raise alarm bells. We have learned our lesson. We must monitor Egypt closely and prepare for every scenario.”

Speaking to journalist Mendi Rizel on News of the Week, Danon pointed to Washington’s role in supplying Egypt’s military and urged a reevaluation of the issue.
For example, Egypt recently signed made a $4.7 million deal with the US for the refurbishment and upgrade of 555 M1A1 Abrams tanks. Military Africa reports, "This refurbishment program is expected to enhance Egypt’s main battle tank fleet, enabling it to address modern threats and align its capabilities with U.S. and allied forces. " The link to the phrase "modern threats"  points to Egypt deploying tanks in Rafah to underscore how they want to stop any Palestinians from Gaza crossing the border.

Which means that Egypt is using US military equipment to do the opposite of what the US wants Egypt to do, which is to allow Gazans to flee to Egypt.

To be sure, Egypt does need tanks to defend itself from any potential threats from Libya and Sudan, but it has a large military edge over those threats already; the need to upgrade to the most modern tanks can only be seen as a means to fight Israel.  This is clearly not in the interests of the US. 

Israel's peace with all Arab countries aligns with their own interests, with or without US aid. If they only maintain peace with Israel because of US "soft power" then there is no peace to begin with. Every country acts primarily for self interest, and the US should be no exception. 

The question is, how does supplying Egypt with advanced weapons that the US does not provide to other countries help US interests? And if it doesn't, why continue to spend that money?

(h/t Irene)



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