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Thursday, January 16, 2025

01/16 Links Pt1: In Israel, Rage, Disgust and Relief Follow Gaza Hostage Deal; Is Trump Pushing Israel toward a Bad Deal?; VDH: What We Have Forgotten About War

From Ian:

Aviva Klompas: In Israel, Rage, Disgust and Relief Follow Gaza Hostage Deal
Hamas is not a political organization seeking reconciliation. It is a genocidal terror group. Its charter calls for the annihilation of Israel and the murder of Jews. Can you imagine the United States negotiating with the Taliban as equals just 15 months after the Sept. 11 attacks? I can't.

For Hamas, this deal is a victory. The group will boast that it outmaneuvered Israel, extracted concessions, and reaffirmed that terrorism works.

In Gaza, people are already dancing in the streets. Khalil al-Haya, a senior Hamas leader, has already declared that the Oct. 7 attacks will "forever be a source of pride" and promised another assault. "Our people will expel the occupation from our lands and from Jerusalem in the earliest time possible," he said.

We've heard these threats before. We've seen what follows.

The grim reality is that some families will remain in agonizing limbo because Hamas knows it can ensure its survival by holding onto hostages and extracting more concessions from Israel.

Still, despite the immense cost and risk, I believe Israel must bring its hostages home.

There is no doubt that Israel has made significant military gains since the start of the war. It has destroyed most of Hamas's battalions, wiped out the top leadership of Hamas and Hezbollah, humiliated Iran, and restored its regional deterrence.

But for all those gains, Israel remains frozen in time on Oct. 7 — the day 1,200 people were slaughtered. The country is desperate to save the lives of those who can still be saved. The state has a duty to bring home the civilians who were ripped from their homes and the soldiers who were sent to protect the state. Prioritizing life is an agonizing choice, but it is the right one.

But the world must understand the dangerous precedent this deal has set. For 15 months, the terrorists watched as Israel, a democratic nation subjected to atrocities by a brutal terror organization, was castigated in international courts and demonized in the court of public opinion. Israel was restrained militarily and made to negotiate with its terrorist attackers.

This moral equivalence is wildly dangerous. Today, it is Israeli civilians. Tomorrow, it will be others. Hamas's existence isn't just a threat to Israel—it's a threat to all of us. And it will come at a cost we cannot yet fully comprehend.

The return of hostages is not a victory. It is a tragic necessity.
Victor Davis Hanson: What We Have Forgotten About War
All of Israel’s current terrorist enemies are supplied and guided by Iran. After sending 500 projectiles into Israel, and after, in response, Israel had dismantled Iran’s supposedly formidable air defenses, what might have followed had Israel invested another week in destroying Iran’s nuclear capability, with threats to continue on with its military bases and energy sector? Would Iran have been able or willing to supply any further its diminished terrorist appendages?

What if 100 percent of Gaza has been entered, disarmed, occupied, and purged of Hamas terrorists, in the manner that much of it had already? Would Israel have eventually destroyed the entire Hamas leadership, dismantled the entire subterranean labyrinth, and taught the population that Hamas would be a longer politically viable?

Would neighboring so-called “moderate” Arab countries have been more or less willing to ally with a formidable, and unpredictable Israel? And would the United States, even under the sanctimonious and sermonizing Biden administration, privately have been more willing to aid Israelis under such vast geopolitical transformations?

Would hostile enclaves and nations, whether in Egypt, Iraq, Qatar, or Yemen, been more or less willing to negotiate with Israel in a post-Hizballah, post-Hamas, and even post-theocratic-Iran era?

I believe Baratz is right not because I wish him to be, but because I think he has a better understanding of human nature than do his opponents, in that he understands that the revolution in military affairs, new weaponry, artificial intelligence, cyberwar, and smart bombs and shells have changed not the rules of war, but merely the velocity and lethality of it.

The more sophisticated we become, the more difficult it becomes to remember that war is fought collectively by humans. Human nature stays constant across time and space. And thus, it remains predictable and subject to universal laws that, if only understood, can mitigate the violence of war—through strategic victory.
Seth Mandel: A Soldier’s Perspective on the Ceasefire
Hundreds of thousands of Israelis have fought in the war against Hamas since October 2003, yet the perspective of the Israeli soldier is often missing from the discussions of the conflict. A friend of mine who is serving his fourth tour in Gaza in this war alone yesterday posted his perspective on this week’s ceasefire deal, and it’s worth considering, since it addresses some of the skepticism toward the deal. G. is a master sergeant, a reservist, and makes two arguments worth grappling with.

First, he writes, “As the military campaign reaches a turning point, it is crucial for Israeli society to begin moving forward. In my opinion, the time has come to focus on healing the nation, supporting those who have suffered, and rebuilding the foundations of strength and resilience. This includes addressing the needs of bereaved families, aiding displaced communities, reuniting a society that has endured immense strain, and supporting soldiers, reservists, and their families in returning to routine, managing trauma, and recovering from life-changing injuries. The long-term stability and strength of Israel depend on repairing the societal fabric that has been tested during this prolonged war.”

That last sentence is similar to one of the practical arguments that helps explain Israel’s determination to redeem its captives even at the cost of incentivizing the continued practice of hostage-taking. Simply put, the Israeli people have made a pact with the state that they will send them their grown children when they reach the age of military service, and the state is to return them home when their service is up.

In that vein, the social fabric of Israeli society cannot be allowed to unravel, because (from a strategic perspective) it would threaten the foundation of Israel’s security. On the other hand, so would permitting Hamas to regroup. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is fond of saying that in politics, leadership often requires choosing between two bad choices. This would be one explanation for Netanyahu’s thought process behind the deal.

There is also the question of war aims: Although under the terms of the deal, Israel retains the prerogative to resume military operations if Hamas violates the ceasefire, the agreement suggests an implicit acceptance of a new policy in which Hamas’s total defeat is no longer a primary Israeli goal. But if Hamas’s continued existence isn’t a dealbreaker, why couldn’t an agreement along these lines have been signed earlier in the war? After all, the details don’t appear to have changed significantly from the outline the Biden administration first advanced in May 2024.


Brendan O'Neill: Is this peace or appeasement?
Here’s a pretty good rule for international affairs: if a deal pleases neo-fascists, it’s probably a bad deal. If an agreement gets an army of anti-Semites dancing in the streets, it’s likely a poor agreement. That was my first thought upon seeing the Jew-killers of Hamas emerge from their tunnels in Gaza last night to celebrate the ceasefire deal struck with Israel: if they like it, then those of us who side with civilisation over the regressive tyranny of such merciless Islamists probably will not.

Of course there’s a thinness to Hamas’s bravado. Its crowing disguises the profound losses it has suffered in this war it started with its pogrom of 7 October 2023. Thousands of its militants are dead. Its leaders are too. Its allies in Hezbollah have been pummelled into insignificance. All Hamas has to show for its fascistic onslaught against the Jewish nation a year-and-a-half ago is the depletion of its racist army and the ruination of vast swathes of Gaza.

And yet its instinct to laud the deal is not wholly wrong. For it does seem to benefit Israel’s foes more than Israel. The Associated Press has seen a draft. It will be enacted in three phases. In the first phase, which will last for 42 days, hostilities will cease and Hamas will release just 33 of the 94 hostages it still holds. In return, Israel will set free around a thousand Palestinian prisoners, including hundreds of terrorists. As AP says, Israel is required to release ‘30 Palestinian prisoners for each civilian hostage and 50 for each female soldier’. Anyone who thinks it is a fair deal to swap 30 detainees, many of whom will be terrorists, for one child stolen from his home almost 470 days ago is in urgent need of a moral compass.

Israel will also commit to removing its troops from ‘populated areas’ and staying on the ‘edges of the Gaza Strip’. It is in those populated areas, of course, that Hamas militants are gathered. The overnight withdrawal of the opposing army will benefit them enormously. In Phase 2, which will also last 42 days, Hamas will release the remaining hostages in return for a ‘yet to be negotiated number of Palestinian prisoners’ and the IDF will initiate a ‘full withdrawal’ from Gaza. In Phase 3, the final act of the deal will take place: the bodies of deceased Israeli hostages will be returned to their grieving families.

We have to be honest: for those of us who support the Jewish nation against the medieval militants that wish to destroy it, this is a bad deal. It is hard to see it as anything other than a boon for Hamas and a blow to Israel. Over the next month, Israel will secure the return of 33 hostages, but Hamas will secure immeasurably more from the deal. Alongside the release of dangerous prisoners, Hamas will watch the IDF withdraw from Gaza’s fighting zones. It will win the breathing space to regroup, rearm and refortify after 15 months of war. Is this peace or appeasement?
Michael Oren: The Hostage Deal Is the Price of Israel's Weakness on Oct. 7
Israel could not simultaneously destroy Hamas and secure all of the hostages' release. The terrorists who regarded the hostages as the key to their survival would hardly give them up for less than an Israeli commitment to end the war.

Israel believed that by increasing military pressure on Hamas, it could compel the terrorists to free the hostages. The strategy appeared to work when, in November 2023, Hamas released 105 of its 251 hostages in exchange for a weeklong ceasefire and the freeing of 240 Palestinian prisoners from Israeli jails. Israel reasonably assumed that ratcheting up its operations in Gaza, especially in Hamas's Rafah stronghold, would yield similar results.

But Hamas, convinced that mounting international condemnation of the war's conduct would soon force the Israelis to surrender, dug in its heels. Israeli forces entered Rafah and several refugee camps, killed senior Hamas leaders, and dispelled Hamas's hope of opening a second front with Hizbullah in Lebanon - yet no new hostage deal ensued. Instead of buckling to military pressure and releasing hostages, the terrorists shot them.

If and when the ceasefire breaks down, the Israeli government is counting on the Trump administration's unbridled support in completing the destruction of Hamas.

Perhaps this outcome was unavoidable from the beginning. Perhaps the deal is the only way of reconciling Israel's goals of annihilating Hamas and repatriating the hostages. Perhaps, despite Israel's subsequent military triumph, this is the price for the failures of Oct. 7.
Andrew Fox: Without the Hostages, the Gaza War Would Have Been Over Months Ago, with an IDF Victory
If all goes to plan, a terrible war will be over, innocent civilians on both sides can start to rebuild their lives, and the hostages will be free. These are objectively Good Things. On a human, compassionate level we should all be delighted.

Tactically, Hamas have taken a severe beating, having lost as much as 90% of military capability and 80% of manpower, although they have boosted their numbers with untrained recruits. Sinwar, Deif and most other key leaders are dead. However, Hamas retains administrative control of Gaza.

Strategically, Hamas will consider this deal to be a victory. Unrestricted inflow of aid, coupled with reduced Israeli oversight and reconnaissance, will allow Hamas to rebuild in short order. Qatar, Turkey and Egypt will support Hamas's rebuild to a significant extent. This deal exponentially increases the risk of a Muslim Brotherhood hegemony filling the void left by Iran's Shia Crescent of proxies in Syria and Lebanon.

Internationally, Hamas have won the most resounding victory imaginable in the world's media, in Western states, and on the internet. The international press has ultimately handed Hamas a win through the fact of their continued survival and eventual rebuild. Hamas has seen booming popularity in Judea and Samaria/West Bank. The stock of the Palestinian cause rides high internationally.

This deal completely validates Hamas's strategy of taking hostages. Without the hostages, this war would have been over months ago, with a convincing IDF victory. The IDF rank-and-file have won every fight. Yet, Israel appears to have seized defeat in Gaza from the jaws of victory. Due to international political pressure, the IDF has been operating with the handbrake on throughout this campaign. In the long term, it is unlikely that Hamas will remain dismantled, or that Israel's borders will be any safer from future attacks in decades to come.
Is Trump Pushing Israel toward a Bad Deal?
The hostage deal currently taking shape stipulates that an unspecified number of hostages kidnapped on Oct. 7 will be returned to their families in exchange for Hamas's military, economic, and governmental rehabilitation.

According to senior Israeli officials, Trump's rigid expectation for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to finalize a deal before his presidential inauguration is what compelled Netanyahu to accept the current framework.

The agreement will undoubtedly bolster Hamas. Despite suffering substantial losses, Hamas stands to receive at least 1,000 new operatives directly from Israeli prisons. This influx of "new blood" is likely to reignite violence. These released prisoners, some of whom are particularly violent offenders, have undergone years of ideological reinforcement and organizational consolidation while in Israeli custody, preparing for their eventual return to terrorist activities.

Historically, mass releases of prisoners have consistently triggered waves of renewed terror. The newly freed operatives are expected to quickly integrate into Hamas's extensive network across Judea and Samaria, Gaza, Qatar, and Turkey, from where they will likely orchestrate new attacks.

Furthermore, the Hamas deal encompasses a substantial increase in the flow of goods and fuel into Gaza, bolstering the group's military and economic capabilities.
Israel-Hamas deal back on track, chair of Israel’s Shas Party says
The hostage deal with Hamas is on, Aryeh Deri, the chairman of Israel’s ultra-Orthodox Shas Party who previously served as an observer on the War Cabinet, announced on Thursday night.

“A few minutes ago, I received the final word that all obstacles have been overcome and that the agreement is underway,” the Sephardic haredi politician declared in a speech at his party’s annual conference in Jerusalem. “Now they are working on the final technical wording.

“I want to congratulate Prime Minister [Benjamin] Netanyahu; he is responsible for the agreement,” Deri told attendees.

Minutes after Deri’s announcement, the Axios news outlet cited a U.S. government source as confirming that the final disputes holding up the ceasefire-for-hostages-and-terrorists-release deal were resolved, “and the agreement is now done.”

The Israeli Security Cabinet is now scheduled to meet on Friday morning to green-light the deal with Hamas, followed by a vote in the full Cabinet, an Israeli official told the Kan News public broadcaster. The agreement is still expected to go into effect at 12:15 p.m. on Sunday, the official said.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken told reporters during a press conference in Washington that the Biden administration likewise remains “confident” that the deal will be implemented on Sunday.

“I fully expect that implementation will begin, as we said, on Sunday. Look, it’s not exactly surprising that in a process, in a negotiation, that has been this challenging, this fraught, you may get a loose end,” he said.

“We’re tying up that loose end as we speak; I’ve been on the phone, in one way or another, all morning with [U.S. National Security Council Coordinator for the Middle East and North Africa] Brett McGurk, with our Qatari friends, and I am very confident this is moving forward,” Blinken said.
Ben Gvir says party to quit government if cabinet approves hostage-ceasefire deal
National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir announced on Thursday evening that his far-right Otzma Yehudit party will withdraw from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s ruling coalition if the cabinet approves the hostage-ceasefire deal with Hamas in the Gaza Strip, as it is expected to do over the weekend.

At the same time, Ben Gvir told reporters in Jerusalem that even if the far-right party should quit the coalition, it would be willing to return should the war eventually resume.

Netanyahu’s Likud party blasted the minister’s threat, saying, “Anyone who dissolves the right-wing government will be remembered as an eternal disgrace.”

Netanyahu’s coalition will maintain a Knesset majority even without Ben Gvir’s party, though if fellow far-right minister Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism also follows through on threats to depart, it would fall to a minority.

In addition to Ben Gvir and Smotrich, Diaspora Affairs Minister Amichai Chikli (Likud) vowed on Thursday evening to resign from the government if the ceasefire becomes permanent, and Israel withdraws from the border between Gaza and Egypt before the war goals are achieved.

Flanked by members of his party, Ben Gvir told reporters in Jerusalem that the agreement, which includes the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, will enable the rehabilitation of terror groups in Gaza and bring back the threat to residents in border areas.

The “reckless deal” will lead to “the release of hundreds of murderous terrorists,” “effectively erase the achievements of the war” and “seal the fate of the hostages who remain [beyond those freed in the first phase],” leaving Hamas “with a significant ability to rebuild itself,” he insisted.
Religious Zionism says will quit coalition if no return to war after deal’s 1st phase
Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich’s far-right Religious Zionism party reiterated its opposition to a ceasefire-hostage agreement in Gaza on Thursday afternoon, and insisted that its continued membership in the government hinges upon the war not ending without the complete military defeat of Hamas.

“The faction stands behind the demands of the party chairman, Minister Bezalel Smotrich, to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, to ensure Israel’s return to the war to destroy Hamas and the return of all the hostages, including a change in the concept of decisive victory, immediately upon the conclusion of the first phase of the deal,” the party declared in a statement, adding that this was the “condition for the party to remain in the government and coalition.”

According to multiple Hebrew-language media reports, Smotrich demanded up-front guarantees from Netanyahu before the deal was signed. However, if the prime minister were to make such assurances, it would throw a wrench into negotiations and could scupper the agreement entirely.

The party’s statement followed what media reports indicated was an inconclusive faction meeting convened to discuss whether or not to quit the coalition.

Speaking to national broadcaster Kan ahead of the meeting, Religious Zionism MK Zvi Sukkot said that “in all likelihood, we will resign from the government,” adding that his party was “here to change the DNA of the State of Israel,” not just to fill seats in the coalition.

According to media reports, MK Simcha Rothman and Settlements and National Projects Minister Orit Strock support withdrawing from the coalition. Rothman and Sukkot did not respond to multiple requests for comment on Thursday.

Thursday’s ultimatum came a day after Smotrich denounced the agreement as a “bad and dangerous deal for the national security of the State of Israel” and conditioned his party’s continued membership in the coalition on Israel restarting its campaign against Hamas until “complete victory.”

“The prime minister and I have been conducting hectic talks on the matter. He knows what the detailed demands of Religious Zionism are, and the ball is in his hands,” Smotrich said Wednesday.
Everything to Know about the Israel-Hamas Hostage Deal | Caroline Glick In-Focus
If you’re confused about the impending Hamas-Israel ceasefire agreement, you aren’t alone. JNS senior contributing editor Caroline Glick has all the details and analysis on the deal and breaks it down in this episode of "In-Focus."


MEMRI: Senior Hamas Official Khalil Al-Hayya Upon Signing Ceasefire Agreement: October 7 Will Continue To Be A Source Of Pride; Our People Served As An 'Impenetrable Shield' For The Resistance; Israel's Supporters Will Be Punished, Even If It Takes Time
On the backdrop of a deal between Israel and Hamas that will include a ceasefire in Gaza and the release of dozens of Israeli hostages captured and taken to Gaza during the October 7, 2023 Hamas-led invasion and massacres in southern Israel, Hamas Political Bureau member Khalil Al-Hayya said in a January 15, 2025 statement aired on Al-Jazeera Network (Qatar): "We salute our martyred leaders, whose body parts were scattered all over in this war." He said that Hamas will continue in their footsteps until victory or martyrdom are achieved, and he described October 7 as a "miracle and accomplishment" that will remain a "source of pride" for the Palestinian people and their "resistance" for generations to come.

He said that the attacks had dealt a "deadly blow" to Israel, that the Palestinian people will regain all their rights, that the Israeli occupation will be expelled from Palestine and Jerusalem, that this will happen soon, and that Israel's "barbaric genocide" in Gaza will forever be ingrained in the memory of the world as the "worst genocide in the modern age," declaring: "We will never forget and never forgive!" He added that the criminals involved in Israel's crimes will be punished "even if it takes time," that Israel has failed to achieve any of its goals in the war, and that Jerusalem and the Al-Aqsa Mosque will remain the goal of the Jihad and the resistance until their liberation and the establishment of an independent Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its capital.

"October 7 Will Remain A Source Of Pride To Our People And Our Resistance, And Will Be Passed Down From Generation To Generation"

Khalil Al-Hayya: "We salute our martyred leaders, whose body parts were scattered all over in this war.

"We will proceed on the path of the martyred leaders until we achieve victory or martyrdom, Allah willing.

"The security and military miracle and accomplishment of October 7, carried out by the elite forces of the Al-Qassam [Brigades], will remain a source of pride for our people and our resistance, and it will be passed down from generation to generation. The enemy entity was dealt a deadly blow. Our people will regain all their rights, Allah willing, and this occupation will be expelled from our land, our Jerusalem, and our holy places, and it will happen soon, Allah willing. The barbaric genocidal war, perpetrated by the occupation and its supporters, their Nazi crimes and their enmity to humanity, over a period of 467 days, will remain engraved in the memory of our people and the world for all eternity as the worst genocide in modern age.


Houthi leader says group will keep up attacks if Israel doesn’t abide by Gaza truce
Israel has “failed miserably” in Gaza, the leader of Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels said Thursday after Israel and the Hamas terror group finalized a hostage-ceasefire deal in the Strip.

He was speaking a day after Israeli and Hamas negotiators agreed to terms of a phased ceasefire, expected to begin at the start of next week, in which Hamas will release Israeli hostages taken captive during its October 7 attack, while Israel will release more than a thousand Palestinian security prisoners. The security cabinet and government are expected to vote to approve the deal in the coming days.

“The Israeli enemy failed to achieve its declared and clear goals, and failed miserably to recover its prisoners without an exchange deal,” Abdul Malik al-Houthi said in a televised address, insisting that Israel and the US were “obliged” to accept the deal.

“We will watch the implementation of the agreement, and if there are any Israeli breaches, massacres or attacks, we will be ready to provide military support to the Palestinian people,” the rebel leader said.

The Houthis — whose slogans call for “death to Israel” and “a curse upon the Jews” — have launched more than 40 ballistic missiles and some 320 drones at Israel since they started attacking the country in 2023, in support of fellow terror group Hamas in the Gaza Strip amid the war.
Daniel Greenfield: CAIR Celebrates Hamas Surrender Deal
Forget all the spin. The most obvious way to tell if a deal is good or bad is to see who’s celebrating it.

And, as Robert Spencer wrote in today’s article, Hamas terrorists are celebrating loudly.

“Hamas jihadis and their supporters are out in force on the streets of Gaza, celebrating the Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal as a massive victory for the jihad terrorist group over Israel and the United States. And they have ample reason to believe that the deal is indeed a victory for them.”

The current Hamas leader delivered a speech declaring victory and celebrating the Oct 7 atrocities.

CAIR, whose leader celebrated Oct 7, also issued a press release. The Muslim Brotherhood terror lobby’s press release stated that, “CAIR Action recognizes that President-elect Trump’s diplomatic engagement achieved progress, whereas the Biden administration failed despite having the leverage to do so.”

This is a horrendous deal and the incoming Trump administration has a narrow window of opportunity to dump it back on the Biden administration and walk away from what is the most obvious trap in the world.

When all the bad guys are happy, you know it’s a bad deal. And a bad deal is worse than no deal.


NY Post Editorial: Cheer for deal that’ll bring hostages home — and pray Israel is allowed to defeat Hamas once they’re back
Ultimately, Jerusalem may free more than 1,000 Palestinian prisoners, including cold-blooded murderers; some may join Hamas in new attacks, just as Yahya Sinwar planned the Oct. 7 massacre after he was freed in a hostage deal years ago.

Worse, the terror group remains alive for now and, though severely weakened, retains much power over Gaza.

Worse still, it’s been recruiting new fighters: Secretary of State Antony Blinken says the rookies have nearly replaced Hamas’ losses.

The biggest risk: Phase 2 calls for Israeli forces to leave all of Gaza to get the remaining hostages freed (for more Palestinian prisoners) as the temporary cease-fire becomes permanent.

Yet letting Hamas not only survive in Gaza, but likely control it, would be a nightmare.

Biden even claims the cease-fire will remain in place if the parties can’t reach an agreement on Phase 2 after Phase 1 expires in 42 days, as long as negotiations continue.

Good thing Joe will be long gone by then: His scheme would let Hamas drag out talks as it rebuilds its bunkers and tunnels.

Happily, it’ll be Trump and Bibi addressing those issues.

In reality, the cease-fire is temporary until and unless Israel agrees to a permanent one: It will (unless Hamas’ fighters on the ground renege) save roughly half the remaining still-living hostages.

That’s a triumph in and of itself.

And it leaves the IDF in control of Gaza’s southern border, greatly limiting the terrorists’ ability to resupply, while offering hope that Israel can retrieve the rest of the hostages soon, and while reserving the right to resume the war thereafter if Hamas refuses to surrender.

Pray any final deal will allow the Israeli people to live in peace and prevail over the butchers once and for all.

And cheer the return of the innocents finally coming home.
Commentary Podcast: BidenGPT and More on the Deal
Dan Senor joins us today as we review the Biden farewell address and try to make sense out of the ceasefire-hostage deal.


Hostage deal to end the October 7th War. Will it stand? Will Israelis stand for it? Will President Trump underwrite it?
With his kind permission, Benjamin Anthony, CEO of the MirYam Institute has given me permission to release this momentous episode of his show on Jonny Gould's Jewish State, and you can follow his regular show here.

Benjamin is joined as always by MirYam Institute's in-house military analyst, Yaakov Lappin, as they discuss the deal's implications for Israeli society, the IDF, Israel's security and the hostage families and whether the whole thing will collapse amid the murderous bad faith of Hamas.

They also analyze what might have been offered as a "sweetener" by incoming President-Elect, Donald Trump to Prime Minister Netanyahu and whether or not U.S. collaboration around the targeting of Iran's nuclear weapons program may be what pursuaded Israel's premiere to step back from several of his stated red-lines.

While we celebrate the return of every hostage, we present our notes of caution as to the consequences that may accompany the deal.


With a Cease-Fire, Hamas Is Now Free to Resume Terrorizing Palestinians
For the past 36 hours, I’ve been reading and listening to analyses of the terms and implications of the recent hostage deal. More will appear in the coming days, and I’ll try to put the best of them in this newsletter. But today I want to share a comment made on Tuesday by the Palestinian analyst Ahmed Fouad Alkhatib. While he and I would probably disagree on numerous points about the current conflict, this analysis is spot on, and goes entirely against most arguments made by those who consider themselves pro-Palestinian, and certainly those chanting for a cease-fire at all costs:
When a cease-fire in Gaza is announced, Hamas’s fascists will do everything they can to frame this as the ultimate victory; they will wear their military uniforms, emerge from their tunnels, stop hiding in schools and displacement centers, and very quickly reassert their control over the coastal enclave. They’ll even get a few Gazans to celebrate and dance for them.

This, I should note, is exactly what has happened. Alkhatib continues:
The reality is that the Islamist terrorism of Hamas, masquerading as “resistance,” has achieved nothing for the Palestinian people except for billions of dollars in wasted resources and tens of thousands of needless deaths, with Gaza in ruins after twenty years following the withdrawal of settlements in 2005. . . . Hamas’s propaganda machine, run by Qatari state media, Al Jazeera Arabic, will work overtime to help the terror group turn a catastrophic disaster into a victory akin to the battles of Stalingrad and Leningrad.

Hamas will also start punishing anyone who criticized or worked against it, and preparing for its next attack. Perhaps Palestinians would have been better off if, instead of granting them a temporary reprieve, the IDF kept fighting until Hamas was utterly defeated.


EU's von der Leyen promises Europe will fund Palestinians to tune of €120 million in 2025
President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen announced on Thursday that Europe will channel €120 million of aid in 2025 to support Palestinians.

Denmark is planning to send over $10 million (75 million Kroner) in aid to the Gaza Strip, the country's Foreign Affairs Ministry confirmed on Thursday. "

The ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas has sparked new hope. Our new contribution will go towards urgent and life-saving efforts for the hard-hit civilian population in Gaza and support early reconstruction to the extent possible in the first phases of the ceasefire. A new momentum has been created that we are ready to seize from the Danish side, and which can hopefully lead to lasting peace. My trip to the Middle East in recent days has only confirmed this for me," said Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen.

The aid comes in addition to the 700 million Kroner provided in 2023 and 2024.


Corbyn and pro-Gaza MPs fail to mention hostages, Hamas or October 7 in ceasefire statement
Jeremy Corbyn and MPs elected on a “pro-Gaza” platform at the last general election failed to mention Hamas or the hostages held by the terror group in a statement welcoming a ceasefire in Gaza.

In a statement released on Wednesday night, the MPs said: “Over the past 15 months, human beings have endured a level of horror and inhumanity that should haunt us forever. Home by home, hospital by hospital, generation by generation – we have witnessed a genocide, aided and abetted by governments across the world, including our own”.

Without mentioning Hamas, the atrocities carried out by the terror group on October 7, 2023 or the hostages they hold, the five MPs vaguely stated that: “The announcement of a ceasefire will bring welcome and vital respite to survivors, as well as relief to all those who will be reunited with friends and family.”

They also called on the government to “cooperate fully with the International Criminal Court in pursuit of justice against all those who have committed war crimes” which they said, “includes complying with orders for arrest warrants, handing over all intelligence, and facing accountability for its own complicity in genocide.”

The so-called Independent Alliance weren’t the only MPs to fail to mention Hamas or the hostages.

Leeds East MP Richard Burgon, currently suspended by Labour for voting against the government, posted on X yesterday: “We now have to push for it to become a permanent ceasefire, for an end to the occupation and for the recognition of a Palestinian state. And we must continue to ensure that those responsible for Israel's war crimes face justice.”


Media Claim Moral Equivalence Between Terrorists and Hostages in Appalling Coverage of Ceasefire Deal
In the coming days, as the ceasefire takes effect in stages with final details still unresolved, it is crucial to remind the media of some key facts:

1. Israel has never violated a ceasefire agreement with Hamas.
2. Hamas initiated this war on October 7, 2023, when its terrorists crossed the border, massacred innocent civilians, and kidnapped hundreds of men, women, and children. These hostages have been held in inhumane conditions in Gaza’s underground tunnels.
3. There is no moral equivalence between the Israeli hostages—innocent civilians ripped from their homes—and the hundreds of terrorists legitimately held in Israeli prisons for violent offenses.
4. Israel’s war in Gaza is against Hamas, a terrorist organization sworn to Israel’s annihilation. Hamas has vowed to repeat October 7 “again and again,” while using Palestinian civilians as human shields and refusing to release the innocent people it abducted.

The media must do their job and report these facts.


Tablet PodCast: Is the Hostage Deal a Disaster? with Gadi Taub
According to reports, Israel is about to sign a ceasefire deal with Hamas that will secure the return of some hostages in return to a partial Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, paving the way to ending the war. Gadi Taub, the co-host of Tablet’s popular Israel Update podcast and one of Israel’s most influential journalists, opposes the deal. He joins Liel to shed light on the Israeli government’s challenges and missteps, on the incoming Trump administration’s potential and worrying decline in support for Israel, and on how the Israeli public is reacting to this difficult and flawed deal.


Ben Shapiro to Arutz Sheva: Hostage deal is painful, but is not a full-scale surrender



Why Hamas Will Never Stop | A Chilling Conversation with Brooke Goldstein
In this explosive episode of State of the Nation, former Israeli government spokesperson Eylon Levy sits down with civil rights attorney and filmmaker Brooke Goldstein to tackle the hard truths about radical extremism, Hamas, and the fight against global antisemitism. Brooke reveals shocking details about hate indoctrination in Palestinian schools, the misuse of international funds, and how the West’s complacency fuels extremism.

They also discuss:
The aftermath of the October 7th massacre and its global impact.
The role of UNRWA in perpetuating extremist ideologies.
Why addressing radicalism requires internal reckoning within the Muslim world.
How empowering Jewish civil rights can combat antisemitism and terrorism.

Don't miss this thought-provoking discussion that challenges conventional narratives and offers actionable solutions to some of the world's most pressing conflicts.


Netanyahu confirms hostage deal is on ‘pause’
Sky News host Sharri Markson discusses the confirmation of the “pause” with the hostage deal between Hamas and Israel.

“Confirmation from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office the hostage deal is on pause,” Ms Markson said.

“Are you surprised?”


Former IDF spokesperson speaks out about Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal
Former IDF spokesperson Jonathan Conricus says he is “very happy” 33 Israeli families of innocent hostages will be reunited due to the proposed ceasefire deal.

“I’m very happy that 33 families, hopefully, if the ceasefire is implemented and the deal is implemented that there will be comfort and solace for 33 Israeli families of hostages,” he told Sky News host Andrew Bolt.

“But that is about where my positivity ends about this deal – strategically speaking, it’s not good.”


Former IDF official on the possible process surrounding release of Palestinian prisoners
As the Israeli government prepares to release 1,200 Palestinian prisoners, including convicted terrorists, as part of a hostage deal, concerns are being raised about the impact on Israeli families who have been victims of these terrorists.

IDF hostage affairs unit former head Avi Kalo, has shed light on the process and procedures surrounding the release of these prisoners.

“There is a unique procedure here in Israel that deals with the aspects of a victim of terror that have been offended by those messy murders that are going to be released during this hostage deal that have the entitlement to approach the Supreme Court in Israel, who as you know, highly prestigious on the international community as well, to appeal against the government for the release of those accused murderers,” Mr Kalo said.


Hamas needs to be ‘dismantled’ before the ‘rebuilding’ of Gaza can begin
Former IDF spokesperson Jonathan Conricus claims an “alternative” Palestinian governance of Gaza is needed before building can begin.

A ceasefire agreement between Hamas and Israel has come after more than 15 months of fighting.

“Hamas will unfortunately still be in power – the horrible situation in Gaza will continue,” Mr Conricus told Sky News Australia.

“For there to be real change, for there to be real reason for optimism, then Hamas needs to be dismantled, and there needs to be an alternative Palestinian governance of Gaza, then the rebuilding will begin.”


‘The devil’: No one truly knows how long a ceasefire will hold with Hamas
Former Israeli ambassador to Australia Mark Sofer says “one never knows” how long a ceasefire will hold between Hamas and Israel.

“They are happy of course the war was coming to an end, most of us they are happy the hostages will be freed,” Mr Sofer said.

“We are talking here about Hamas, we are talking about the devil as you say and one never knows.”


Hamas ‘backing out of elements’ of hostage deal
Sky News host Sharri Markson says Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has released a statement saying Hamas is “backing out” of elements of the Hostage deal.

“This deal that was celebrated globally today is now in disarray and facing a major stumbling point,” Ms Markson said.

“The deal was scheduled to be put to the Israeli Cabinet as we speak, 11 am Israel time, but now cabinet will not meet to vote on the deal until Hamas agrees to all elements of the deal.”


Donald Trump the ‘real winner’ of Israel-Hamas ceasefire
Sky News host Andrew Bolt says the world today saw the “new world of Trump rules” following the announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.

“The real winner is not Israel … it is Donald Trump and the world has got a warning that the rules have changed,” Mr Bolt said.

“They've changed even before Trump is officially sworn in as US president again on Monday.”


‘Horrible wave’ of antisemitism ‘unleashed’ around the world
Sky News host Chris Kenny says a “horrible wave” of antisemitism has been “unleashed” around the world.

“Our Prime Minister eventually appointed a special envoy on antisemitism, but then, astoundingly, has rejected her major recommendation for a national cabinet meeting on how to tackle the scourge,” Mr Kenny said.

“Why appoint her, if you won’t listen to her?”




Stephen Pollard: Saturday’s march shows that it’s really about Jews, not Palestinians
If you’re looking for evidence that it’s Jews who are the real target of the hate marches, you might have thought it would be difficult for the Palestine Solidarity Campaign to top its demand this week that the police let it remain free to intimidate Jews on their way to and from synagogue when it marches on Saturday. (The Met have, after over a year, developed the beginnings of a backbone and ordered the marchers to change their route.)

Well, you’d be wrong.

The very fact the march is still happening, now that there is a ceasefire deal in place, shows what’s really behind the demos. Since the very first demo on October 13 2023, just six days after Hamas butchered 1200 Israelis and before a single IDF soldier had set foot in Gaza, the PSC has been screaming for a ceasefire. (An unconditional ceasefire, that is – with no mention of the need for the hostages to be released. They’re only Jews, after all.) The marches, they have insisted, have been all about humanitarian concern with Gaza and stopping ‘genocide’.

Well, there is now an agreement for a ceasefire. Assuming Hamas sticks to its word, it’s happening. Cue relief? Cue a solemn sense of hope that there may be a path now to something better? Cue scrapping a march which was arranged to call for the very thing that has now been agreed?

Of course not. Saturday’s march goes ahead – and I would bet my mortgage that the hate will be more vitriolic than ever. Because the marches have never really had anything to do with a ceasefire. They’ve never had anything to do with genuine humanitarianism or hope for the future of the Middle East. The PSC’s membership is suffused with antisemitism of the most unambiguous and blatant kind. So of course the PSC’s marches are about Jews. Of course they are marches built on hate rather than humanitarianism.

And as we have seen throughout history, when Jews are the target, anything goes. Hence the deranged accusation of genocide, which has been front and centre of the marches, when in reality it was Jews – Israelis – who were massacred by a terrorist organisation committed by charter to genocide - it to the eradication of Jews from the face of the earth.

Look at the reaction to the ceasefire to see this being demonstrated in real time. It's been only a few hours since the deal was agreed but already you can see the narrative changing. In a jarring handbrake turn, the Jew haters are now saying that the ceasefire is in fact a huge triumph for Hamas, which has survived all that Israel has thrown at it and is now triumphant. That’s quite a definition of genocide.




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"He's an Anti-Zionist Too!" cartoon book (December 2024)

PROTOCOLS: Exposing Modern Antisemitism (February 2022)

    
 

 

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