The rapid fall of the Assad regime in Syria is stunning.
There is no shortage of analysis, but essentially every "expert" in the field is warning of things that could or might happen.
What I haven't seen is any of these experts admitting that they couldn't see this coming.
The Middle East is the most watched, analyzed and studied region on Earth. Isn't it strange that no one saw the coordination necessary for the disparate Syrian rebel groups to mount this offensive? The planning must have taken weeks, if not months. Israel's escalation against Hezbollah in September would undoubtedly have either started these plans if not accelerated already existing plans.
Where were these analysts then? And - why should we believe any of them now when they didn't see this coming?
We can expect to see analysis in the coming weeks of how the signs were there all along, all ignoring that these supposed experts missed those signs.
Lesson #1: Media and academic experts are no better at predicting what will happen than anyone else.
To be sure, Western intelligence agencies appear to have been caught flat-footed as well. Any decent intel organization must go back, look at any evidence of this development that must have been visible but ignored, and ask itself where it went wrong.
Every intelligence failure that I am aware of comes not from missing the evidence, but from not connecting the dots. Intelligence agencies have to deal with massive amounts of data that they gather from tens of thousands of sources. The challenge is being able to notice patterns and properly prioritize the data coming in.
How many times have we seen after the fact that the pieces of the puzzle were always there? From Pearl Harbor to the Yom Kippur War to October 7, the data wasn't the problem. It was the refusal to believe the data, the refusal to properly prioritize the data, the overriding of the evidence with beliefs.
Perhaps artificial intelligence can overcome these issues, which are after all human blind spots. But AI is often being programmed too often with the same blind spots, at least the AIs I've been playing with. Nevertheless, it shouldn't be hard to adjust AIs to avoid bias in the models and programming to learn to put together data. Expect to see accelerated work in that arena.
Lesson #2: Even national intelligence agencies have blind spots and they need to adjust their methods of analysis.
Some of these failures come because dictatorships, whether they are Syria or China or Iran, zealously hide their weaknesses from the world and project not the truth but propaganda. Furthermore, they end up hiding the truth from themselves as well out of desire to do what the dictator wants rather than what's best for the country.
The startling speed of the Syrian coup is because of any unique set of circumstances. It could happen in any non-democratic country. (Democracies can change quite quickly as well but they are usually open enough for people to see it coming.)
This is a sobering lesson for those who rely on dictatorships as partners. Every decision a western power makes when making deals with a Saudi Arabia or a UAE or an Egypt or a Jordan must include the non-zero chance that these regimes can be replaced tomorrow with leaders with a vastly different worldview. Weapons given to prop up these regimes can fall into the hands of those who those whom the weapons were meant to fight. Personnel posted in those countries are only a bullet away from becoming hostages.
Strongmen are often not as strong as they project, nor as strong as some want to believe. Nations rely on allies, and must make educated guesses as to whom to trust, but when it comes to even seemingly enlightened dictatorships they need to hedge their bets because their allies can turn into enemies in a day,
Lesson #3: "Put not your trust in princes."
