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Jake Wallis Simons writes in TheJC:
If there has been one message to have emerged in intelligence circles in recent weeks it is that Iran’s feared “axis of resistance” was not all it was cracked up to be. Did Russia and China come to Iran’s defence when Israeli planes attacked? They did not. When Tehran rained missiles on the Jewish state last April, however, a coalition of friendly democracies pitched in. It is clear where the true alliance lies.For years, the Biden administration has been trying to appease the despots of Tehran. Why? It has never been any match for Western might. The time is approaching to point out that the emperor has no nukes.For now. History may never repeat itself but certain lessons may be drawn. If Iran is allowed to go nuclear, there are two possible futures. Either the regime gets to wield its new atomic muscle across the region or it collapses under the weight of its own brutality and the weapons fall into chaotic hands. For Israel, neither would be tolerable.The recent constellation of events has led Iran to its weakest position in decades. The regime is desperate. This week, Rafael Grossi, head of the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency, said that Tehran had drastically escalated its uranium enrichment programme. A wounded animal is most dangerous when cornered.Whether the White House will get onboard or not, Jerusalem must rip apart the paper tiger of Tehran before it crosses the atomic threshold. Remember when the late John McCain sang “bomb bomb Iran” on the campaign trail? That was 16 years ago. Why the delay? The Begin doctrine worked in Iraq and Syria. It is time to dust it off once again.
There are a couple of other reasons for Israel to consider action now.
One is that Biden is the lamest in the history of lame duck presidents. Right now the US is rudderless. Any worries about the US turning against Israel at this point, with Trump entering the White House, are almost nonexistent.
But beyond that:
I recently looked at Iranian media to see what they were saying about the promised reprisal against Israel for last October's attack by Israel on Iran. Iranian officials and media are still promising that the attack is coming, and the emphasize that when Khamenei makes a promise, they will make sure it happens.
One analyst asked what is taking so long -in mid-November.
The first possibility is that Iran is trying to repair the gaps and strengthen its defense systems before attacking Israel, and this solid work may take a little time. For example, the Bavar 373 defense and defense system has proven to be very effective, but its number of missiles is limited. The Russian S-300 system is probably not up to expectations; Perhaps there is a greater need for electronic defense systems. For example, in order to repel the next Israeli attacks, a new generation of Russian or Chinese fighters may be needed, or for any other reason that Iranian defense officials want to patiently and intelligently organize and work hard.
Iran saw its weaknesses from Israel's October attack and is probably busily looking for all the help it can get to patch them. It knows that if it gives Israel an excuse, Israel's next attack will be much larger and more devastating. It doesn't want to attack when Israel's next response will hurt it much more than it can hurt Israel.
Why should Israel play Iran's game? They have publicly promised to attack Israel. (The UN seems strangely uninterested in that promise.) Israel has every right under the theory of self-defense to take the initiative this time. Why wait until Iran is closer to a nuke, until Iran shores up its defenses?
Israel has the ability not only to damage Iran's nuclear program (which is still mostly underground) but to cripple Iran's economy much faster than Trump's sanctions will. Iran can't count on too many friends to help it out.
While Israel may want to wait for a clearer reason to attack, the daily threats from Iran must be taken seriously. They didn't lie the last two times and they are not lying now. Waiting is what Iran is assuming Israel will do. There is no reason to play by their rules.
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