JNS reports that the plans for Iran's attack have been put on hold:
The Iranian leadership decided to postpone a third direct attack on Israel following last week’s U.S. presidential election, won by Republican candidate Donald Trump, officials in Jerusalem familiar with the matter told Israel Hayom on Thursday.The Israeli report came a day after Iranian sources told Sky News that Trump’s impending return to the White House led the Tehran regime to delay the attack.
According to Israel Hayom, the Islamic Republic shelved its plans in the hope of kick-starting negotiations with the Trump administration, which will take charge at noon on Jan. 20.The Israeli sources also said that the incoming administration is drafting plans to bring down the Islamist regime, which has ruled Iran for more than four decades. Tehran’s decision to refrain from attacking Israel at this time was reportedly made to head off this scenario.
Trump's victory already appears to have had a greater effect on Iran's aggressiveness than any number of President Biden's "Don't" warnings.
But while their rhetoric has calmed down, Iranian media is still insisting that plans are moving ahead for what they call "Operation True Promise 3". Yesterday a member of Iran's Expediency Council said that "we are preparing" for the operation. An IRGC official said on Sunday night that the attack will come when Iran's Supreme Leader says it will. A cleric today said "determination, Iranian courage and Islamic honor require that the Sadiq 3 operation be carried out."
And one outlet released a movie trailer about the promised attack.
This is a far cry from the extreme warmongering rhetoric in the first week of November. There seems no doubt that Trump's victory has checked Iran's ambitions, as they know that he plans to reimpose sanctions that were loosened by the current administration and it is not politically wise to attack Israel when the incoming White House is uncompromisingly pro-Israel.
Meanwhile it appears that Israel's last attack on Iran was even more effective than reported. Axios says:
The Israeli attack on Iran in late October destroyed an active top secret nuclear weapons research facility in Parchin, according to three U.S. officials, one current Israeli official and one former Israeli official.The strike — which targeted a site previously reported to be inactive — significantly damaged Iran's effort over the past year to resume nuclear weapons research, Israeli and U.S. officials said.One former Israeli official briefed on the strike said it destroyed sophisticated equipment used to design the plastic explosives that surround uranium in a nuclear device and are needed to detonate it.
This was a way for Israel to attack Iran's nuclear program without Iran being able to deny it, since the program is not supposed to exist. It also highlights Israel's intelligence capabilities, as well as Israel's ability to identify the critical links in the supply chain necessary to build a nuclear device and damage the program without having to attack well-fortified uranium enrichment facilities or the like.
And this might be part of Iran's calculations as to when and how to attack Israel, knowing that this was a relatively easy target to destroy.
(h/t Yoel)
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