Hezbollah and Iran have been in a bind since the assassinations of their respective leaders Fouad Shukr and Ismail Haniyeh at the end of July.
They both promised a huge military response as revenge. But neither of them want an escalation, because they know that Israel can cause far more damage to them than they can to Israel.
For weeks, they both said a massive response was imminent. Finally, on August 25, Hezbollah launched a major attack on Israel that was largely thwarted by pre-emptive Israeli strikes. The attack was a failure and Arab social media lampooned Hezbollah's leader as only managing to kill chickens.
Iran and its Lebanese proxy cannot accept being shamed by Israel. But they cannot attack either. How can they restore the honor they lost?
One answer came yesterday: they claim that the August "Arbaeen Day" operation was a resounding success.
From Hezbollah's mouthpiece Al Mayadeen (English):
European security sources have reported to Al Mayadeen that the recent strikes by the Islamic Resistance in Lebanon - Hezbollah targeting the HQs of Unit 8200 in the Glilot base and the airbase of Ein Shemer have been substantially successful.According to the sources, the attack, dubbed Operation Arbaeen, has resulted in significant casualties within the Israeli intelligence unit, with fatalities reaching 22 and 74 members reported injured.
If unnamed "European security sources" said so, it must be true!
Iranian-linked media has been trumpeting this obvious lie for the past 12 hours, as it is front page news in Iran's IRNA, the IRGC's Defa, and of course Dearborn.org.
The good news is that this story may indicate that Iran has given up on its planned vengeance operation, pretending that Hezbollah's attack already taught Israel a lesson.
Which appears to show that Israel's own deterrence against Iran and Hezbollah works.
