Here is a sample timeline of Iranian threats to attack Israel since August 1. Note that the rationale for not actually attacking Israel as promised keep morphing, first to say that it will be a surprise, then to say that Iran wants to give negotiations with Hamas a chance, then to say that it might not be a traditional military response at all.
(All text from Institute for the Study of War daily Iran Updates.)
August 1: "Senior Iranian security officials, including Armed Forces General Staff Chief Major General Mohammad Bagheri and Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Akbar Ahmadian, suggested that both Iran and the Axis of Resistance will retaliate against Israel"August 4: " Iran told unspecified Arab diplomats on August 3 that it does not care if its retaliation triggers a war, according to the Wall Street Journal. This report comes immediately after Iranian Acting Foreign Affairs Minister Ali Bagheri Kani held his multiple phone calls with his Egyptian and Jordanian counterparts, during which he emphasized Iran’s “serious determination to hold [Israel] accountable.”August 7: "Acting Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani defended Iran’s impending retaliatory strike against Israel while signaling that Iran seeks to avoid a regional war during an Organization of Islamic Cooperation meeting in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, on August 7. Bagheri Kani argued that Iran “has no choice” but to exercise its right to self-defense and restore deterrence against Israel.August 11: " Iranian armed forces-run outlet Defa Press claimed on August 11 that Iran is conducting a 'flawless psychological war' against Israel by drawing out its retaliation.."August 13: " Three anonymous senior Iranian officials speaking to Reuters on August 13 claimed that Iran and Lebanese Hezbollah would refrain from attacking Israel if it reached a ceasefire-hostage agreement with Hamas.[1] One of the senior Iranian officials claimed that Iran and Hezbollah would attack Israel if ceasefire-hostage talks fail or if Israel delays negotiations."August 15: "An IRGC-affiliated outlet published a graphic on August 15 boasting that the ambiguity surrounding the timing of the attack is just as harmful as the strike itself will be"August 20: "IRGC Deputy Commander Brigadier General Ali Fadavi warned on August 20 that Iran will 'definitely' retaliate against Israel 'at the suitable time and place.'August 28: "Iranian Armed Forces General Staff Chief Major General Mohammad Bagheri restated on August 28 the Iranian intent to attack Israel in retaliation for killing Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.["September 1: "IRGC-affiliated media indicated on August 31 that some elements of the Iranian regime are likely continuing to try to delay a retaliatory strike on Israel until the ongoing ceasefire-hostage negotiations conclude. Basirat claimed that Iran’s response to Israel killing Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh will be “strong, decisive, and deterrent,” but noted that Iran does not seek to derail the ongoing ceasefire talks"September 4: "Senior Iranian military officials have continued to signal that Iran will attack Israel directly in response to Israel killing several senior Axis of Resistance leaders.... Armed Forces General Staff Coordination Deputy Brigadier General Ali Abdollahi Ali Abadi claimed on September 4 that Israel “must bury [its] dream that Iran will not respond” to Haniyeh's death. Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Quds Force Operations Deputy Brigadier General Mohsen Chizari separately warned that Iran will “definitely” give a “crushing response” to IsraelSeptember 9: "The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) commander said on September 8 that Iran would take “revenge” for Israel’s “evils” in a “different” way. IRGC Commander Major General Hossein Salami said that Israel is "shaken" by the "nightmare of Iran's decisive action" and that "Israelis will taste the bitter taste of revenge.""September 19: "Iranian officials stated that there will be a response to the Israeli operation that detonated pagers belonging to Hezbollah fighters in Lebanon on September 17. Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Commander Hossein Salami vowed a “crushing response” from the Axis of Resistance in a message to Lebanese Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah on September 19. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian reiterated his condemnation for the attack in Lebanon and stated on X (Twitter) that “God...takes revenge and [Israel] will definitely be punished justly”
Now, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has changed the narrative yet again, claiming that Iran's failure to attack is really because it loves peace and was practicing amazing restraint and wants to put down its weapons, contradicting literally everything said beforehand - including by Pezeshkian himself:
Pezeshkian considered that the Israeli occupation state assassinated the elected Palestinian Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh in the Iranian capital, Tehran, with the aim of “dragging Iran into a regional war, but we exercised the utmost restraint.”He stressed that Tehran has sufficient capability to strike the Israeli occupation state, explaining that the response to the assassination of Haniyeh in Tehran "will be at the appropriate time and in the appropriate manner."The Iranian president expressed his country's readiness to "work to reduce tensions in the region," but "Israel does not want that and is escalating and expanding the war," he said.He also expressed Iran's readiness to "put aside all its weapons," considering that "the question is to what extent Israel is prepared to do the same."
In other words, Iran and Hezbollah are losing and Iran is pivoting from "we'll destroy the infidel Jews" to "don't attack us! Please!"
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