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Wednesday, July 03, 2024

It might not be declared, but the statistics indicate that there is already a real war with Hezbollah

Israel's Institute for National Security Studies has been publishing regular infographics about the current fighting on all fronts. 

Even for those who follow the news from Israel closely, the aggregate numbers of the attacks to and from Lebanon and Syria are staggering.

Since October, there have been more than 4,700 missiles fired from Syria and Lebanon. 

To give some context, that is more than the number of rockets shot by Hamas in the 2009 Operation Cast lead (571) and 2014's Operation Protective Edge (3000) combined.

Their detailed map of every attack shows that there have been 110 Hezbollah attacks on the village of Kiryat Shmona alone.


Hezbollah attacks have been as far south as Afula, 35 kilometers from the border.

Israel's responses have been far more devastating. 


INSS counts over 5,900 Israeli attacks on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, including over 200 strikes on Ras al Naquora alone. 

It might be restrained, but it sure feels like a war and not a mere "operation." . Especially since more that 60,000 Israelis and 90,000 Lebanese have been forced from their homes because of the fighting. Also,  Hezbollah only admitted 250 of its members killed in the 2006 war, and more than 350 of them have been killed since October 7.

There has been an average of about 5 Hezbollah attacks every day since October 7, and about 25 Israeli responses a day.

The number of Israeli strikes on Syria is also higher than I would have guessed. No toanywhere close to the numbers in Lebanon, but 154 strikes, 234 fatalities, and the airstrikes have become daily events over the past two weeks. 



A full blown war would be devastating to both sides. But the current activity is also a war by any other yardstick. 




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