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Tuesday, June 18, 2024

It isn't only casualties: The world relies on opaque, and wrong, Gaza aid statistics from @UNRWA

I reported yesterday that the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) incorrectly said Gaza was in famine partially because it discounted any data on food entering Gaza from COGAT. It classified data from the IDF COGAT unit as "R0," meaning unreliable without corroboration, while UNRWA's statistics on incoming food was considered R2, or the most accurate.

The truth is the opposite.

COGAT issued its own report on the discrepancies between UNRWA data and its own, and it found that UNRWA doesn't have the experience, ability or transparency necessary to accurately count the amount of aid going into Gaza.

The UN figures not only inconsistently record humanitarian trucks from the private sector and other NGO trucks, but is also missing data on UN aid entering Gaza. These gaps have existed throughout the war, but have become extreme since the end of April and through the month of May 2024. 

Prior to October 7, 2023, UN OCHA was responsible for collecting data and publishing reports. However, since October 7th , UNRWA has taken over data collection and reporting. Their methodology is deeply flawed, lacks transparency, and is presented in such a way that makes it nearly impossible to understand the aid numbers they record. After a thorough review and analysis of the data collected by COGAT and UNRWA – we have identified underreporting of over 8,000 trucks from the beginning of the war, with 4,880 ‘missing’ trucks in the month of May alone.

 We have previously discussed some of the discrepancies. UNRWA only seems to count  trucks once they are collected, not when they enter Gaza. UNRWA does not count trucks at all crossings. UNRWA does not count most commercial trucks.

But as the COGAT report notes, UNRWA does not even accurately count the trucks that go to UN agencies. 

Even if you discount the trucks coming from other aid organizations, donor countries or the private sector, the UNRWA data is also missing data for other UN agencies. This is significant because it means that even when it comes to tracking UN aid – ignoring all other sources of humanitarian goods entering Gaza – the UNRWA system fails to accurately track and tally the UN trucks entering Gaza. For the month of May, they are missing 1,239 UN aid trucks that entered Gaza.


Yet the UNRWA dashboard is considered the gold standard on aid statistics, and the statistics from COGAT - the only organization that counts every single truck entering Gaza - are all but ignored. 

The report is written diplomatically, but it is clear that UNRWA is incompetent at keeping these statistics.  Even COGAT's careful language shows its frustration at why the world believes a UN agency whose expertise is not data gathering.

COGAT has a daily coordination meeting every evening with representatives from the UN, the US and Egypt to review that day’s humanitarian effort, trouble-shoot and agree upon efforts for the following day. Part of this meeting is devoted to reviewing the data, specifically the trucks going through the various crossings.
Within the format of the daily coordination meetings, the UN is informed on the COGAT data and daily tally. The UN has not objected or endeavored to correct or align the COGAT data with theirs during these meetings.
UN data is used widely and considered accurate by the international community and is the basis on which professional bodies and studies evaluate the humanitarian situation and needs in Gaza. The sizable and growing gap in the reported data is contributing to an increasing disconnect between reporting and the reality on the ground There are no disclaimers on the UNRWA dashboard that would enable professional bodies or other users to understand the limitation and methodological restrictions in their data. 
UNRWA does not have the mandate or the capabilities to be collecting and presenting the aid data. Historically and according to the UN mandate, OCHA is the professional body that should be collecting this data, and they have not since Oct. 7, 2023. 

Perhaps some of this is because UNRWA uses a very sophisticated PowerBI interactive graph system while COGAT's website does not easily allow anyone to see and analyze historic data. Researching COGAT's statistics involves looking at their tweets, which do not include daily data and is not how data should be presented.  

Nevertheless, COGAT is the one central source of data for all trucks entering Gaza, and as such should be considered more reliable than UNRWA figures. FEWS is not the only organization that discounts COGAT data - newspapers and other UN agencies as well as all NGOs consider UN data to be the gold standard, and the data gathered by Israel is treated as propaganda.

It is a failure of the NGOs, the UN, the media, as well as COGAT itself for not presenting its own data in a more professional manner. 

This report is only a small step to fixing the problem, and of course it is being ignored by the organizations who profit from portraying Gaza as being worse off than it really is.




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