The New York Times published an op-ed by R. David Harden and Larry Garber titled, "The U.S. Must Embrace Palestinian Statehood Now."
My immediate reaction when seeing that title was "Why reward Palestinians for overwhelmingly supporting the biggest massacre of Jews since the Holocaust?" But the article pretends to give an answer:
But the problem with the article, by pointing to the older polls, is more fundamental. A plurality of Palestinians today indeed support Hamas - by a huge margin. And a large majority hates Fatah with a passion, looking at the group as corrupt and incompetent. It is the height of stupidity, and actually a bit derogatory, to think that the US recognizing a corrupt government would give it more legitimacy for Palestinians.
Opponents may raise the moral hazard argument: Why should Washington reward Palestinians for bad behavior? By recognizing Palestine, however, the administration would demonstrate that it does not view all Palestinians as Hamas sympathizers. In fact, according to pre-Oct. 7 public opinion surveys, a majority of Palestinians said they preferred to live in an independent country at peace with Israel. A U.S. policy in support of that desire, including commitments to help rebuild Gaza and to improve the quality of life there, would give the population an incentive to choose new leaders who would work toward achieving the long-deferred Palestinian dream of independence.
The link they give for public opinion surveys goes to a paywalled article in Foreign Affairs, which makes the same claim: "Unlike Hamas, whose goal is to destroy the Israeli state, the majority of survey respondents favored a two-state solution with an independent Palestine and Israel existing side by side."
There is no link to the actual survey. They say this about it: "Arab Barometer’s survey of the West Bank and Gaza, conducted in partnership with the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research and with the support of the National Endowment for Democracy, provides a snapshot of the views of ordinary citizens on the eve of the latest conflict. " It is not published on the Arab Barometer website.
Based on previous Arab Barometer surveys, it appears that the question asked was, "What solution do you prefer for ending the Palestinian-Israeli conflict?" In 2022, 52% said a two state solution.
But the same pollsters PCPSR asked Palestinians in September 2023, "Do you support or oppose a two-state solution?" and the answers were only 32% supported and 67% opposed.
The difference is that in the Arab Barometer survey, the people were given only four choices: two state, one state for Jews and Arabs together (8%), a confederation between Israel and a Palestinian state (6%) and "other" (28%) The bulk of the "other" responses were for a single Arab state without Israel.
However, we know from other polls that when given that choice of a single Palestinian Arab state and no Israel, compared to two states, the vast majority (75% in November) prefer the single Palestinian Arab state from the river to the sea. In other words, this Arab Barometer poll was rigged against asking Palestinians what their favored solution is, and made them choose between things they didn't want.
And the pre-October PCPSR poll shows with its other questions that Palestinians do not want to live in peace with Israel. Even when asked for the best way to achieve a two state solution, the majority said "armed struggle."
In short, this article was written to shoehorn half-facts and nonsense into the authors' predefined wishes. Every single time anyone says "if you do this action, the Palestinians will respond with goodwill" they have been wrong. .
