Hamas is an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood - as is Al Qaeda. Most Arab states passionately hate the "Ikhwan," whose slogan is "Allah is our objective. The Prophet is our leader. Qur'an is our law. Jihad is our way. Dying in the way of Allah is our highest hope."
The Muslim Brotherhood goal, which Hamas shares, is to unify all Muslim countries into a single entity ruled by Sharia law.
This is a direct threat to most Arab governments. Yet Muslim Brotherhood-based political parties have significant support in many so-called moderate Arab states, like Jordan or Bahrain where their parties have about 10% of seats.
The biggest blow to the Muslim Brotherhood's political power in recent years was Egypt's crackdown on the group after President Sis deposed the MB's Morsi. It has been in disarray since throughout the Middle East.
If Hamas ends up with any pretense of victory - meaning if it survives in any form - all that could be reversed. It could cause an "Arab winter" where the Muslim Brotherhood would gain hundreds of thousands of followers.
Iran would take advantage of the changed dynamics, and fund the Brotherhood parties and potential allied armed groups. Regimes may topple.
The entire region could be destabilized if the Gaza Islamists remain in power.
They don't say it out loud, but Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, Tunisia and Morocco, to name a few, are silently counting on Israel to utterly destroy Hamas.
As always, Israel is forced to act alone because many of the countries that will benefit from the destruction of Hamas have populations that are 90% antisemitic.
Let me emphasize what defeating Hamas means. If they survive in Gaza, they will be regarded as victors. If Israel does a prisoner swap, Hamas will be regarded as heroes. If they are sent into exile, they will be regarded as victors. If they survive for two months, pro-Hamas media will paint that as victory as well. A ceasefire or "humanitarian pause" would help Hamas' optics tremendously in the Arab world.
Like it or not, Israel is now fighting on behalf of the moderate Arab world, and in some ways for the entire free world.
When Israel wins, the Arab world will condemn them loudly and applaud them in silence. The world will only see the condemnations.
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