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Thursday, October 06, 2022

10/06 Links Pt1: The Palestinian Authority cannot meet the most basic requirement for statehood; Lapid rejects Hashemite Kingdom of Palestine solution

From Ian:

The Palestinian Authority cannot meet the most basic requirement for statehood
The supreme test for a stable, sustainable and legitimate state is a monopoly on the use of force within the territories it controls. In the case of the P.A., this territory is currently composed of Areas A and B of Judea and Samaria—constituting around 40% of the area. The P.A. does not have the capability or willingness to confront the armed factions in these areas, never mind an expanded area provided for a Palestinian state. Moreover, the P.A. does not control an inch of the Gaza Strip, which is under the control of the terrorist entity Hamas, which sometimes appears to hate the P.A. and its chief Mahmoud Abbas even more than the Jews.

According to Melanne Civic and Michael Miklaucic in their book Monopoly of Force, “While no state has an absolute monopoly of force, to be accountable for actions taken within its borders, a state must have at least a preponderance of force; it must be able to prevent hostile acts toward other states. This is a minimum assumption of effective sovereignty.” The belief that the P.A. would be capable of this minimal level of sovereignty is wishful thinking.

The current unrest in Judea and Samaria is a perfect example of the P.A.’s ineptitude. The cities of Jenin and Nablus in Area A and B are lawless spaces controlled by a toxic mixture of armed elements of Abbas’ Fatah Party, Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, among others. If Israel were not doing the P.A.’s dirty work, these groups would not only attack citizens of the Jewish state but, within a short time, overthrow the P.A. itself.

According to Efraim Inbar, the president of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, “To a significant extent, the P.A. is a failed state, defined by the lack of a monopoly on the use of force. … Abbas shied away from confronting the armed gangs and failed to centralize the security services. Indeed, the P.A. lost control of Gaza to Hamas and has continuous difficulties dismantling militias in the territory under its formal control.”

Ordinary Palestinian citizens are responding to this by arming themselves—a logical decision under the circumstances. As former U.S. Secretary of Defense James Mattis said, “We need to recognize that in an imperfect world, we cannot blame a man for wanting to maintain his arms for the protection of his family, land and community when all around him is chaos, lawlessness and corruption, with little or no opportunity.” This is the environment created by an impotent P.A. The vacuum is being filled by terrorists, thugs and Islamist fanatics.

The willful delusion that the P.A. would have a monopoly of force in any proposed state would be laughable if it were not so dangerous. Indeed, the most likely outcome of the creation of a Palestinian state is a Hamas coup. One can support the two-state solution, but refusing to acknowledge that there is no entity capable of a monopoly of force in a Palestinian state—except perhaps for Hamas—is a danger to Israel’s existence and undermines American interests, which depend on a stable Israel. For the foreseeable future, the only realistic option is the status quo.
Jordan Is the Reason There Is No Palestinian State and Minorities Are Threatened
Clearly, the Jordanians have a poor record when it comes to safeguarding the rights of non-Muslims. Thus, it is quite hypocritical for the current Jordanian monarch to criticize Israel’s policies on religious freedom, especially since the Jewish state lifted the aforementioned discriminatory laws imposed on non-Muslim religious minorities once it assumed control over the West Bank and reunified Jerusalem.

Unfortunately, King Abdullah II’s hypocrisy is not limited to the matter of protecting religious freedom. The Hashemite ruler also used his speech at the General Assembly to call for a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, saying that the Palestinians “cannot be denied the right to self-determination.” But who has been denying the Palestinians their right to self-determination? Not Israel, whose leaders have offered the Palestinians statehood on several occasions, only to be turned down and met with terrorist violence at the urging of the Palestinian leadership. In fact, if anyone has been standing in the way of the Palestinians’ right to self-determination, it is King Abdullah II’s Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan.

The Palestinians could have had a country of their own as far back as 1921, when the British literally handed the territory of their Mandate of Palestine east of the Jordan River to King Abdullah II’s Hashemite clan, instead of giving it to the Palestinian Arab population for which it was originally intended. Then, during the 1948 war, the Jordanians captured what they labeled the West Bank, including eastern Jerusalem and all its holy places. But did they end up giving this territory to the Palestinians so that they would have a country of their own? Nope. Instead, the Jordanians annexed the newly-conquered territory — an annexation that was not even recognized by the other Arab states.

The bottom line is that King Abdullah II and his Hashemite clan have stood in the way of Palestinian statehood, not Israel. The king’s diatribe about a two-state solution is as hypocritical as his argument that the Jewish state threatens the rights of Christians. Besides, without Israeli support, the Jordanian monarch would probably not have his kingdom, so I think it’s time he stopped biting the hand that feeds him.
David Singer: Lapid rejects Hashemite Kingdom of Palestine solution
The emergence of the Saudi Solution offered these reticent politicians a real choice – yet not one of them has had the intestinal fortitude finally – if belatedly and unrealistically – displayed by Lapid.

The Saudi Solution – in distinct contrast to the United Nations Solution – offers Israel the following concessions before negotiations are even commenced on implementing the proposal:
· -Jerusalem will be the capital of Israel only
· - No new State will be created between Israel and Jordan
· - The right of return by Palestinian Arabs to Israel will be abandoned
· -Jewish sovereignty in part of Judea and Samaria ('West Bank') will be recognised for the first time in 3000 years
· -Saudi Peace proposals made in 1981 and 2002 that were unacceptable to Israel will be superseded.

The universal silence by Israeli politicians on the Saudi Solution since its publication almost four months ago is shameful.

One cannot expect every Israeli politician to embrace the Saudi Solution, but then they should publicly state their opposition.

But is there not one Israeli politician – Jew or Arab – other than Lapid - prepared to express his own opinion on conducting negotiations to determine if agreement can be reached on the Saudi Solutions’ groundbreaking proposals?

In particular why have the leaders of sixteen of the major Israeli political parties contesting the elections – Netanyahu, Gantz, Sa’ar, Smotrich, Ben-Gvir, Deri, Litzman, Gafni, Shehadeh,Odeh, Tibi, Michaeli, Galon, Abbas, Shaked, Liberman and Hendel - refused to comment on the Saudi Solution since its publication?

Hopefully these leaders - like Lapid – will break their silence on the Saudi Solution well before November 1.

Leaders lead from the front – not cower and huddle silently together behind the voters whose votes they seek.


Khaled Abu Toameh: Biden Administration's Nuke Deal: Ensuring Russian and Iranian Terrorist Hegemony Over the Whole Arab World
US President Joe Biden and his administration have, it appears, decided to sacrifice not only the brave people of Iran now risking their lives in a bid for decent governance, but also the Arabs. This betrayal of longtime allies is taking place, it seems, to appease Russia, ever eager to keep the price of oil at a premium, and its new close ally, Iran.

Russia has been the chief negotiator for the US in the "Iranian nuclear deal" talks; the Americans are not even allowed in the room.

By dropping the two demands [curbing Iranian-backed terrorism in the region and Iran's ballistic missile program], "Biden has practically decided to acquiesce in Iran and its entire terrorist expansion project in the Arab region.... This is a dangerous development. The issue is not whether the agreement is signed or not.... The matter is not limited to these concessions made by Biden; there is something more dangerous than this: Biden has completely abandoned the Arabs, allies and non-allies alike." — Sayed Zahra, deputy editor of the Gulf's Akhbar Al-Khaleej newspaper, August 20, 2022.

"The collapse of this [expansionist] project means the collapse of the regime, similar to the collapse of the Soviet Union." — Lebanese journalist Kheirallah Kheirallah.

"In Iraq, Iran refuses to admit that it is rejected by the majority of the Iraqi people, who expressed this in the last legislative elections. Iran refuses to acknowledge the defeat of its supporters in these elections. We see it currently seeking to overturn the results of those elections, starting with disrupting the formation of a new government and political life in the entire country." — Kheirallah Kheirallah, Lebanese journalist, Annahar, August 17, 2022.

"A return to the nuclear deal will enhance Iran's capabilities because it allows it to interact with the outside world, export oil and gas, and develop sectors of the Iranian economy instead of being under severe and comprehensive punishments.... [Iran] is trying to exploit the current international conditions to develop its military capabilities, nuclear and conventional, and its ballistic missiles, for the sake of regional hegemony." — Hamid Al-Kaifaey, Iraqi author, Sky News Arabia, August 14, 2022.

The Arabs' biggest fear is that this policy will embolden the mullahs to proceed with their plan to "export our revolution" and expand their control over the whole Arab world.
The Pinsker Center PodCast: Ep. 29 - Modern Israeli Security Challenges - with Sarit Zehavi
In this episode of People Talk… Politics, Pinsker Policy Fellow Mackenzie France interviews Lieutenant Colonel (Res.) Sarit Zehavi. Sarit is the founder and president of Alma – a nonprofit independent research and education centre specialising in Israel’s security challenges on the Northern border. Following the conversation about Alma, its focus, mission and recent work, they discuss security threats facing Israel and how these should be addressed. Sarit and Mackenzie also discuss the implications of Iran acquiring nuclear weapons and reflect on the August 2022 operation Breaking Dawn, evaluating its successes and failures.
Anthony Browne MP UK: Beyond the Weary Stalemate, Something Is Happening in the Middle East
There is no active Israeli-Palestinian peace process, but that doesn't mean things aren't changing. The plate tectonics of the Middle East are shifting quickly. Speaking to political and business leaders on both the Israeli and Palestinian side on a trip a few weeks ago, there is increasing speculation that there is a pathway for the previously unresolvable conflict to be resolved. "There is a new game in town," as one long-time observer put it.

The seismic changes are the Abraham Accords. Now at Tel Aviv airport a large proportion of departure signs are to Arab nations - there are over 30 flights a week from Israel to the UAE. The excitement of Arab and Israeli business people about the opportunities is almost tangible. This normalization process is expected to continue across the Arab world.

This widening Arab recognition of Israel changes the dynamics of the Middle East. The standoff is no longer between the Arab world and Israel, but between Palestinians and Israel. The Abraham Accords give permission to Arabs and Jews to say they like each other. Most importantly, it creates a belief that a peaceful solution is possible. That belief is a precondition for peace.


Turkey names former Jerusalem envoy as new ambassador to Israel
Turkey appointed Sakir Ozkan Torunlar as its new ambassador to Israel late on Wednesday following a mutual decision taken last month to restore full diplomatic ties, two Turkish foreign ministry officials said.

Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu briefed Torunlar on Wednesday night as part of the ministry's new appointments abroad, the officials told Reuters.

A career diplomat with decades of experience, Torunlar was Turkish Consul General in Jerusalem from 2010 until 2013.

Israel has already named Irit Lillian as its next ambassador to Ankara.

Relations between Turkey and Israel have been rocky since 2011 when Ankara expelled Israel's ambassador following a 2010 Israeli raid on the Mavi Marmara aid ship to Gaza, which killed nine Turkish citizens.

The rift healed when full diplomatic relations were restored in 2016 and the two countries exchanged ambassadors.

Tensions escalated again in 2018 when Israeli forces killed a number of Palestinians who had taken part in the "March of Return" protests in the Gaza Strip.
Israel rejects Lebanon amendments to deal, Gantz warns of escalation
Prime Minister Yair Lapid rejected the changes Lebanon proposed to a maritime border agreement drafted by the US, a senior diplomatic source said on Thursday.

US Energy Envoy Amos Hochstein’s draft, presented to Israel and Lebanon last week, was meant to be close to the final version of an agreement settling the dispute over the countries’ economic waters. Lebanon submitted its comments on the draft on Tuesday.

Lapid assessed some of the demands to be new and significant, and instructed the negotiating team to reject them.

“Prime Minister Lapid made clear that he will not compromise on Israel’s security and economic interests even if it means there will not be an agreement soon,” the source said.

More specifically, the source said, one of the demands from Lebanon that Lapid rejected is that Total Energy, the French company with the license to develop the Kana gas field, buy out the portion of the reservoir in Israeli waters, whereas the proposal to which Israel agreed had Total pay royalties for the gas extracted from its waters.

Exploration has not yet begun in Kana and the amount of gas in the reservoir remains unknown, such that an immediate buyout could fall short of the actual value of the gas in Israeli waters.

Another element that Lapid rejected is Lebanon's refusal to accept the "buoy line" as a border. The line in question is an obstacle extending 5 km. into the sea from Rosh Hanikra, on the border with Lebanon. The government has argued the line was vulnerable because Israel had established it unilaterally as a zone necessary for the Jewish state to have freedom of action for its security, and the agreement with Lebanon will anchor that line in international law.

The "buoy line" is what Lapid's government has presented as the primary achievement of the negotiations in terms of Israeli security. However, in the ensuing days, Lebanon asked to change the language describing the "buoy line" to avoid accepting it as an international border.

Even as Israel rejects those demands, it “will extract gas from the Karish rig at the moment that it will be possible,” the source stated.

Karish, an Israeli gas field, is adjacent to Kana, a reservoir that spans Lebanese and Israeli waters, as well as the area in dispute. Energean, which holds the Israeli license for Karish, set up a rig about 70 km from Haifa’s shores in June and has worked towards extracting gas, while Iran-backed Lebanese terrorist group Hezbollah threatened to attack if Karish becomes operative.

“If Hezbollah or someone else tries to harm Karish or threaten us, the negotiations on the maritime line will stop immediately and [Hezbollah leader] Hassan Nasrallah will have to explain to the citizens of Lebanon why they don’t have a gas rig and an economic future,” the source added.
"Israel Discovers Another Natural Gas Field"
A new natural gas reservoir has been discovered off Israel’s coast, giving another significant boost to Israel’s rapidly developing energy industry.

The Greek Energean Oil and Gas PLC company said Thursday that it is “pleased to announce that the Hermes exploration well has made a commercial gas discovery of between 7 and 15 billion cubic meters (BCM).”

The Hermes exploration well, at Block 31, is off Israel’s northern coast, just south of the Karish rig, which is being threatened by Lebanon’s Iranian proxy terror group, Hezbollah.

The company noted that the discovery at Hermes also increases the likelihood of gas findings in the nearby Poseidon and Orpheus fields.

Israel’s economy has received a significant enhancement from discoveries of the energy resource in around 20 Mediterranean gas fields.

The gas fields are not only important to Israel economically, but politically as well. In 2013, under the administration of then-Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli government decided that the country should export 40 percent of its gas production and invest the profits in economic development.

Israel has signed contracts to supply gas to Jordan and Egypt, and plans to build a pipeline through Cyprus to Greece to provide Europe with gas.

In June of this year, Israel signed an historic Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with the European Union (EU) and Egypt on cooperation regarding trade, transportation, and export of natural gas from Israel to EU member states, as part of the Regional Gas Forum of the Eastern Mediterranean Countries (EMGF) in Egypt.

According to the Natural Gas Authority, the Israeli economy has saved about NIS 65 billion in the last year alone due to the transition to the use of natural gas. Its price in Israel continues to be significantly lower than in the rest of the world.
IDF probe finds no connection between soldiers and Palestinian boy's death
The Israeli military has ruled out any connection between troop activity and the death of a 7 year-old Palestinian boy at the end of September in the West Bank village of Tuqu.

Rayan Yasser Sliman died suddenly in disputed circumstances after IDF troops showed up at his home in the village south of Bethlehem, looking for children who had been throwing stones at Israeli vehicles.

The Palestinian Authority Health Ministry immediately blamed Israel for his death, saying first that he died after falling from a height, but later shifted its narrative during the course of the day, saying that the boy fell and his heart stopped as a result, and then later said that he died due to heart failure after being chased by troops who then threatened his family.

According to the investigation by the IDF, the force entered the village and went to several buildings in order to identify the suspects. In one of the homes, the officer “recognized” the father of the family from the window of his house and called on him to come out of the house along with his children in order to be questioned.

The military said that the father came along with two of his children and had a “short conversation, conducted in a respectful manner, without any contact and certainly without the use of verbal or physical violence” with the company commander.

The statement said that it was not possible to determine if Rayan Sliman was with the father during the conversation or the two older brothers who may have been the ones who threw the stones.


Palestinian gunman killed in exchange of fire with IDF
One Palestinian gunman was killed and several wounded on Wednesday during a firefight that erupted during an Israeli arrest raid in the the town of Deir al-Hatab, near Nablus.

Israeli forces had entered the town to apprehend Hamas member Salman Amran in connection with a terror attack near Itamar on Sunday, according to the Israel Defense Forces. Amran has served multiple prison sentences for plotting attacks on Israelis.

According to the IDF, Amran opened fire on Israeli forces after they surrounded his residential building. The troops returned fire, deploying fragmentation grenades and a bulldozer. Amran’s brother, who was outside of the suspect’s apartment, was wounded in the exchange, according to the military.

At this point, Palestinian gunmen in multiple locations opened fire on the IDF forces, who returned fire, killing one gunman, the IDF said in a statement.

The Palestinian Authority-run WAFA news agency named the casualty as Alaa Nasser, stating that he died in a hospital in Nablus, known in Israel as Shechem.

Following the exchange of fire, Amran surrendered, according to the IDF.

WAFA also reported that a cameraman from Palestine TV was shot in the hand, and that an additional person was hit in the leg. Both are in stable condition, according to the report.
Gay Palestinian living under asylum in Israel murdered, beheaded in Hebron
A gay Palestinian man living under asylum in Israel was murdered and beheaded Wednesday in the West Bank city of Hebron. The unnamed suspect, who was arrested by police near the scene of the crime soon after committing it, recorded the act in a video that he uploaded to social media before his capture.

The victim was 25-year-old Ahmad Abu Murkhiyeh, who according to reports on Ynet and Channel 12 had been living in Israel for the past two years as an asylum-seeker after authorities acknowledged his life would be in danger if he returned to Palestinian territory.

It was not immediately clear how or why the young man ended up in Hebron. Friends of Abu Murkhiyeh in Israel alleged he was likely kidnapped to the West Bank before his murder, though it was not clear that they had evidence of this.

Rita Petrenko, founder of Al-Bayt Al-Mukhtalif, a non-profit organization for the empowerment of the Arab LGBT community, said that she had helped to arrange for Abu Murkhiyeh’s asylum papers in preparation for his eventual resettlement in Canada and that he’d actively participated in LGBT discussion groups. Describing the young man as “hard-working and intelligent,” Petrenko regretted that he had not been transferred to safety in Canada before his life was brutally taken from him.

Neither Israeli sources, nor the Palestinian police or the Abu Murkhiyeh family has been able to clarify if the victim and his killer had any prior relationship. No motive has yet been disclosed as a result of the Palestinian police’s investigation, but the suspect is currently being interrogated.


PMW: Fatah Jenin Secretary: “Only through the rifle will Palestine be liberated”
A few weeks ago an Israeli major was ambushed and killed by terrorists near Jenin. In recent months, several terrorists have come from the city – for years an infamous hotbed for terrorists. The attacks against Israelis are promoted by the Fatah Movement’s secretary in Jenin, who has stressed his support for terrorists and promoted additional terror attacks.

Referring to the killing of the Israeli soldier as a “heroic operation,” Fatah’s Jenin Branch Secretary Ata Abu Rmeileh announced a ”comprehensive confrontation” with Israel:
Fatah Jenin Branch Secretary Ata Abu Rmeileh: “Our Palestinian people has decided on a comprehensive confrontation with this occupation. The confrontations will not stop and the resistance will not stop… This (i.e., murder of Israeli soldier) is a heroic operation of the Al-Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades, Fatah’s military wing. This is not a strike but general mourning over the Martyrs [Ahmed Abed and Abd Al-Rahman Abed], but on the other hand there is general joy in all the streets and all the alleys.”

[Facebook page of the Fatah Commission of Culture and Information, Sept. 14, 2022]

Not only did Abu Rmeileh glorify the recent attack and murder, but in the weeks and months prior to the attack he called for bloodshed.

At an event marking the death of two other terrorists, the Jenin secretary called for Israel's destruction through terror, saying “only through the rifle will Palestine be liberated.” On the same occasion, mothers of the terrorist “Martyrs” vowed to “follow in their path”:




Algeria invites Fatah, Hamas to unity talks amid skepticism
Algeria has invited representatives of several Palestinian factions, including Fatah and Hamas, to another round of “national dialogue” in the Algerian capital next week.

Earlier this year, the Algerians hosted a similar meeting of Palestinian factions to try to bring to an end the rivalry between Fatah and Hamas, but it ended without agreement.

Palestinian sources dismissed the possibility that the upcoming intra-Palestinian discussions in Algiers would achieve a breakthrough.

In addition to Fatah and Hamas, 12 other factions, including Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) and Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine (DFLP), have agreed to send representatives to Algiers.

Previous attempts by Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt and other Arab countries to end the Fatah-Hamas feud were also unsuccessful.

The upcoming meeting comes ahead of an Arab summit scheduled for next month in Algeria. Palestinian and Arab political analysts said that the renewed effort to achieve Palestinian “reconciliation” is part of Algerian President Abdemadjid Tebboune’s attempt to bolster his country’s standing at the summit.

On Thursday, Hamas welcomed the Algerian initiative and said it was ready to work “with full force and the highest degree of national responsibility to make the Algerian efforts succeed in achieving national unity.”

Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh will head the group’s delegation to the discussions together with Khalil al-Hayya, Maher Salah and Hussam Badran, the Gaza-based group said in a statement.
Hamas to visit Syria as part of efforts to revive ties with Assad
A Hamas delegation will visit Syria later this month, two sources told Reuters on Thursday, in a move by the Palestinian Islamist group to rebuild ties after shunning President Bashar al-Assad for years over his violent crackdown on protests.

A senior Hamas official said the visit would take place after a Hamas delegation concludes an October 10 trip to Algeria to discuss reconciliation with the rival Palestinian Fatah movement of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas.

A second source, a Palestinian official familiar with the issue, confirmed details of the Syria trip.

A Palestinian source in Syria denied that a visit would take place, while Hamas officials in Gaza, the coastal enclave where the group has ruled since 2007, declined to comment. There was no immediate comment from the Syrian government. Hamas' relations with Assad's Syrian regime

Hamas leaders publicly endorsed the 2011 street uprising against Assad's dynastic rule, and vacated their Syria headquarters in Damascus in 2012, a move that angered their common ally, Iran.

Hamas's relations with Iran were later restored and Hamas officials praised the Islamic Republic for help with building up their Gaza arsenal of longer-range rockets, which they have used in fighting Israel.
The Folly of Reengaging Assad
Although the Assad regime's horrific record of war crimes and crimes against humanity is well known, several governments in the Middle East have recently pursued policies to reengage and normalize Syria's regime. While Jordan had been a longtime backer of Syria's armed anti-Assad opposition since 2012, Jordan flipped in 2017 and 2018. Amman's reasoning for turning against Syria's opposition was its desire for stability along its border, to create conditions amenable to refugee returns, and to rid southern Syria of Islamic State cells as well as an extensive Iranian and Hizbullah presence.

Yet Syria's southern province of Daraa is now arguably the most unstable region in the country, riddled with daily insurgent attacks, inter-factional strife, and targeted assassinations. Not only does Iran remain in place alongside Hizbullah and a network of local proxy militias, but Iran and its proxies have expanded their reach and influence, commanding some 150 military facilities across southern Syria. The Islamic State, too, continues to conduct sporadic attacks in the area.

In addition, there has been an enormous surge in Assad regime-sponsored drug smuggling through Jordan. Thanks to the Syrian regime's illicit production of Captagon, an amphetamine-like stimulant, Syria is now a narco-state of global significance. In 2021, $30 billion worth of Captagon was produced in Syrian facilities guarded by private military contractors. According to Jordanian officials, 16 million Captagon pills were seized on Jordanian soil coming from Syria in 2021; in the first five months of 2022, that number stood at 20 million pills, and today, that number has reached 33 million. Dozens of people have been killed in border clashes associated with the Syrian drug trade.
How Biden Can Stand With the Iranian People
Triggered by the morality police’s brutal killing of twenty-two-year-old Mahsa Amini for allegedly violating mandatory veiling laws, the latest iteration of Iran’s street protests both borrows from, and breaks with, the recent past. Unlike the 2009 Green Movement protests, which followed an election being stolen from a reformist candidate, the past half-decade of increasing Iranian protest activity is not tied to any faction or element of the regime. This is made clear in the slogans chanted at the protests, such as “reformists, principlists, the jig is up!”

Instead, these protests build on the critical evolution of demonstrations and labor strikes since 2009 away from reform and toward revolution. Starting in late 2017, Iranians began to take every available opportunity to move from “passive resistance” to active resistance. This was and continues to be done by using economic, environmental, social, and even security issues as a way to contest the Islamic Republic and, in doing so, make a larger political point about Iranians’ desire for a representative government in line with their values and interests.

In November 2019, Iranians poured onto the streets in response to high gas prices, but their slogans and aims were not about macroeconomics. While some in the West failed to comprehend this, Iran’s rulers faced no such analysis paralysis. Hiding behind an internet blackout, security forces reportedly killed 1,500 protesters in a matter of days. Yet Iranians turned out to protest less than two months later when the Islamic Republic downed a civilian airliner, killing 176 passengers. Fast forward to 2022, and the anti-regime protests that began this September actually picked up where protests sparked by high food prices this May had left off.

Yet, the increasing frequency, scale, and scope of Iranian political protests, the violence employed against protesters by authorities, and the population’s willingness to push back and continue transgressing redlines are missed in Washington’s nuclear-deal-centric framing of Iran policy.

Success for Iran’s protest movement or even the erosion of the Islamic Republic’s power could have profound consequences for stability in the Middle East and redound to America’s strategic advantage if supported correctly and carefully. After all, the Islamic Republic has never been shy about hiding its enmity for America—“the Great Satan”—and its desire to frustrate U.S. policy. This is especially true in the counterterrorism context, given Iran’s material support to terror proxies—styled by Tehran as “the Axis of Resistance”—in places like Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, and Gaza, as well as through the increasingly relevant paradigm of great power competition, where Tehran is busy tightening economic and military ties with China and Russia.

With the prospect of reform non-existent, the Iranian protests offer Washington a chance to do well by doing good. Here’s a ten-point plan to do exactly that.

First, the Biden administration should push away from nuclear negotiations, however indirect, with Tehran centered on resurrecting the 2015 Iran nuclear deal known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). So long as the JCPOA remains on the table, Tehran will know that international pressure will ultimately fade. A nuclear deal that fails to fully and permanently block Iran’s path to a nuclear weapon is, on its best day, a Faustian bargain for American national security. But having that same deal provide a regime like the Islamic Republic with a financial windfall of an estimated one trillion U.S. dollars by 2030 is sheer folly. Enabling the flow of such funding in exchange for limited and reversible concessions on select elements of Iran’s atomic infrastructure will oil the repressive apparatus that killed Mahsa Amini and her protesting compatriots. It will also permit Tehran to better back its foreign legion, thereby underwriting more, not less, bloodshed in Iran and across the Middle East.

Second, Washington should move to politically isolate the Islamic Republic by pushing for its removal from, or censure in, international organizations while also pressuring allies to sever or downgrade their bilateral diplomatic relations. Lest we forget, there have been a handful of times over the past four decades when European nations recalled their ambassadors from Tehran. The recent string of demarches, statements, and more by American allies is therefore welcome, but more can be done. There is no reason why, in the aftermath of the brutal killing of Mahsa Amini (as well as many other brave young women in protests), Iran should be permitted to retain its seat cost-free on the Commission on the Status of Women at the UN. Elected to the commission this spring, a regime that treats women as the Islamic Republic does not deserve to be anywhere near such a body.
Europe must trigger snapback of UN sanctions on Iran
France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States have pursued a bifurcated Iran policy: attempting to revive an expiring nuclear deal while tolerating the Islamic Republic’s brutal repression of the Iranian people. The latest protests and civil unrest in Iran raise an uncomfortable reality for the West: A new deal will provide significant sanctions relief that will fuel the regime’s violent crackdown. Tehran’s latest demands in nuclear talks have also frustrated the powers, with the Europeans noting that the regime’s foot-dragging over reviving a weaker version of the 2015 nuclear accord raises “serious doubts as to Iran’s intentions.” For 18 months, Europe and the United States negotiated in earnest, but as the months slipped by, Tehran’s outrageous demands periodically stalled the talks and provided the regime with room to expand its nuclear program.

America and the E3 — shorthand for London, Paris, and Berlin — tried the path of diplomacy, but Tehran is not interested in a deal, however generous its reported terms.

The West must now pivot from negotiations to pressure.

As the first step to shedding the remnants of the old deal and amassing necessary leverage to counter and roll back Tehran’s nuclear advances, Europe must trigger a “snapback” of prior UN Security Council (UNSC) sanctions on Iran. That step, coupled with additional diplomatic, economic, and military pressure, would frustrate Tehran’s efforts and hasten the demise of the Islamic Republic regime.

Iran has exploited negotiations over the accord, officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), to place itself at the threshold of a nuclear weapons capability. According to independent analysis of data gathered by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), if Tehran decides to produce nuclear weapons, it could make weapons-grade uranium for three atomic bombs within a month, and two additional weapons within four months.

These accelerated timelines are due to Iran’s operation of faster, more advanced centrifuges, producing uranium enriched to 60 percent — Tehran’s highest level ever — and making uranium metal, a material used in nuclear weapons. At the same time, Tehran has reduced IAEA monitoring, making it more difficult for the agency to detect a breakout.

Iran has also refused to cooperate with a nearly four-year IAEA investigation into the Islamic Republic’s suspicious atomic work. Tehran’s actions are in violation of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which supersedes its JCPOA obligations. Alarmingly, the IAEA reported last month that the agency is no longer “in a position to provide assurance that Iran’s nuclear program is exclusively peaceful.”
The US 'will see Iran's offensive might' in the Persian Gulf - IRGC navy chief
The United States "will see Iran's offensive might" if a violent altercation occurs in the Persian Gulf, senior IRGC navy commander Ramezan Zirrahi warned on Tuesday, according to Iranian state-controlled Mehr News Agency.

Speaking from the southern port city of Bushehr, the Iranian admiral reportedly boasted that the Islamic Republic's adversaries "do not dare to cross Iran's territorial waters."

"The Persian Gulf is always monitored day and night," Zirrahi said, adding that Iran's offensive, defensive and drone power in dealing with the enemies in the Persian Gulf has increased significantly."

"America and the adversary countries in the Persian Gulf do not have the power and courage to stop the vessels of the Islamic Republic of Iran, because they know that there will be a tough attack against them," the IRGC navy chief continued. Iran's maritime altercations

The US and Iran were involved in a maritime tussle earlier this year when the United States confiscated an Iranian-flagged oil tanker anchored in Greece.

In addition, Iran's navy said last month that it seized two US Navy "small data collection vessels" after it found them "abandoned on the international shipping route."

Another conflict in the Gulf involving Iran and the United Arab Emirates is their disputed claims to three contested Persian Gulf islands in the Strait of Hormuz. UAE had called for Iran to "end its occupation of the three islands" during the 77th annual United Nations General Assembly last month.
Seth Frantzman: Iran continues to attack Kurds in response to protests
Iran has continued to target Kurds in response to protests in Iran. As the protests continued for weeks the regime, decided to try to placate some of the protests at home; while striking out at the Kurdistan region of Iran and the Kurdistan region of Iraq. The Kurdistan region of Iraq is an autonomous region and Iran is seeking to destabilize it and also target Kurdish opposition groups.

Many Kurds from Iran have fled to Iraq over the years and some of them joined opposition groups, such as the PAK, PDKI and PJAK. These groups are opposed to Iran’s regime and they have different ideologies but their overall essence is the same in that they are Kurdish and also oppose the theocratic regime. There are many minority groups in Iran but Kurds have often proven to have a successful track record of resistance.

Iran’s regime fears minorities and seeks to crack down on Kurds. Part of this is because Mahsa Amini, the woman whose death sparked the protests, was Kurdish. Also Kurdish slogans about “women, life, liberty” have become common across Iran as part of the protest.

Iran has used the protests as an excuse now to carry out 12 days of bombardment of Kurdish areas in northern Iraq. This has included the use of ballistic missiles and drones, but it is mostly now confined to artillery strikes. There are also fears of a land incursion from the border region.

On October 5 the PAK group, which is a Kurdish Iranian group that also helped fight ISIS in Iraq for many years; tweeted that Iranian drones attacked the group on Wednesday. Commander of the PAK forces General Hussein Yazdanpana visited wounded members of his group in a hospital this week.

Reports say Iran has bolstered its forces in the Baneh border area. Two days ago those forces reportedly murdered Kurds accused of smuggling. These are informal networks of traders who bring goods over the mountains and they are known as “kolbars” and Iranian forces often shoot at these men. Two were killed, according to reports, on October 3 and others were injured on September 14.
Report: Iranian-Made Drones Hit Ukraine’s Kyiv Region for First Time
Dozens of firefighters rushed to douse blazes on Wednesday in a town near Ukraine's capital Kyiv following multiple strikes caused by what local officials said were Iranian-made loitering munitions, often known as ‘kamikaze drones'.

Six drones hit a building overnight in Bila Tserkva, around 75 km (45 miles) south of the capital, said the governor of the Kyiv region, Oleksiy Kuleba.

Ukraine has reported a spate of Russian attacks with Iranian-made Shahed-136 drones in the last three weeks, but the strike on Bila Tserkva was by far the closest to Kyiv.

Iran denies supplying the drones to Russia, while the Kremlin has not commented.

"There was a roaring noise, a piercing sound. I heard the first strike, the second I saw and heard. There was a roar and then ‘boom' followed by an explosion," said 80-year-old Volodymyr, who lives across the street from the stricken building.

Other residents told Reuters they heard four explosions in quick succession, followed by another two over an hour later.

Ukrainian forces appear to have been caught on the back foot by the drones, which Kyiv says Moscow started using on the battlefield in September.

Speaking on television on Wednesday, Ukrainian air force spokesman Yuriy Ihnat said the drones were launched from occupied areas in southern Ukraine, and that six further drones had been shot down before reaching their target.

"This is a new threat for all the defence forces (of Ukraine), and we need to use all available means to try to counter it," Ihnat said, comparing the drone's small size to an artillery shell.
France accuses Iran of staging ‘confession’ video of ‘state hostages’
Iranian state television aired Thursday what it said were “confessions” by a French couple arrested five months ago, a move the government in Paris condemned as “shameful, revolting and unacceptable.”

The French man and woman were arrested in May when Iran was the scene of demonstrations by teachers demanding pay raises and calling for the release of detained colleagues.

The broadcast of their alleged confessions comes as Iran grapples with a wave of women-led protests that erupted on September 16 following the death in custody of Iranian Kurdish woman Mahsa Amini.

Iran has repeatedly accused outside forces of stirring up the protests and last week announced that nine foreign nationals — including from France, Germany, Italy, Poland, and the Netherlands — had been arrested.

In the video broadcast Thursday on Iranian state television, a woman speaking French and identifying as Cecile Kohler is heard saying that she is an “agent of the DGSE” French intelligence service.

She said the couple was in Iran “to prepare the conditions for the revolution and the overthrow of the Iranian Islamist regime.”

She said they had planned to finance strikes and demonstrations and even use weapons “to fight against the police.”

According to her partner Jacques Paris, who was also said to be shown in the video, the DGSE’s objectives “were to put pressure on the Iranian government.”

The broadcast was strongly condemned by the French government.
'Death to Khemenei' Is This The Beginning of the End of the Iranian Regime?
Protests have been raging across Iran following the death in police custody last month of Mahsa Amini, 22, who was arrested for allegedly failing to wear her hijab properly by the country’s feared morality enforcement squad.

Authorities in the Islamic Republic have moved to shut down demonstrations, including shuttering its prestigious Sharif University of Technology in Tehran after a standoff between student protestors and disrupting social media access in various locations.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei broke three weeks of silence on Monday to condemn protestors and blamed the United States and Israel for instigating the unrest, warning that “those who foment unrest to sabotage the Islamic Republic deserve harsh prosecution and punishment.”

At least 92 people are believed to have been killed by authorities with thousands more arrested since September 16 in what marks the biggest demonstrations against the Iranian regime since the 2019 fuel riots.

The brutal crackdown has been criticized by US President Joe Biden, who promised America would do more to help protestors. “The United States is making it easier for Iranians to access the Internet, including through facilitating greater access to secure, outside platforms and services,” he said, adding: “[We are] also holding accountable Iranian officials and entities, such as the Morality Police, that are responsible for employing violence to suppress civil society.”

As the Iranian authorities continue deploying increasingly violent crowd dispersal methods and the protests show no sign of calming, many are wondering whether this could be the beginning of the end for the regime.






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