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Monday, July 18, 2022

07/18 Links Pt1: The "Two-State Solution" as Panacea Never Fades Away; The Saudis see Israel as key to regional stability; PA Spy Chief To Head Delegation At UN Torture Committee Review of PA Record

From Ian:

Seth Frantzman: Eight things that happened during the Biden's Middle East trip
From I2U2 to Centcom and Morocco
Israel, India, the UAE and US are now working on a new framework called I2U2, which brings together countries with common interests. The move was announced during Biden’s trip and during a virtual summit. This was a major accomplishment. It remains to be seen if a new air defense pact in the region will also bring together Israel and the Gulf countries.

At the same time, Israel’s chief of staff is heading to Morocco after meeting the head of US Central Command on Sunday. All of these moves show the rapid integration of Israel into the region and new regional systems of partnerships.

Russia-Iran drone story grows
Russia may be seeking to use Iranian drones against Ukraine. The US alleged that Iran would provide Moscow with armed drones before Biden’s visit took place. As the president traveled the region, this story grew. Although Iran and Russia appeared to downplay the reports, US media continues to grow the story.

“A Russian delegation has visited an airfield in central Iran at least twice in the last month to examine weapons-capable drones, according to National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and satellite imagery obtained exclusively by CNN,” the network reports. “Iran began showcasing the Shahed-191 and Shahed-129 drones, also known as UAVs or Unmanned Aerial Vehicles, to Russia at Kashan Airfield south of Tehran in June, US officials told CNN. Both types of drones are capable of carrying precision-guided missiles.”

It remains to be seen if evidence emerges of an actual drone transfer. Russia could use Iranian drones to try to attack US-supplied weapons to Ukraine, such as the HIMARs systems. Ukraine would need to boost air defenses against any rising drone threat. Russia’s leader is expected to come to the region this week, and it will be important to see if he comes out with any concrete steps with his Iranian and Turkish counterparts regarding things like drones or Turkish threats to invade Syria.
Seth Frantzman: Morocco-Israel relationship is a huge beneficiary of new peace era
Moroccan ties also look to be good news for defense and trade
Globes reported in February that “Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) will provide the Moroccan army with the Barak MX air and missile defense system in a deal worth more than $500 million, according to international sources involved in the defense system trade.”

According to the same report, “Morocco has already purchased Heron UAVs from IAI and other UAVs from IAI unit Bluebird, as well as robot patrol vehicle systems from Elbit Systems and drone interceptors from Skylock. All these purchases from Israeli companies were carried out through third parties.”

Gantz has said that Israeli defense trade with the Abraham Accords countries is in the billions of dollars. Morocco appears to be a key to that large amount of trade.

The number of tourists is also growing. The Economist reported in June that Morocco expected 200,000 Israeli tourists. The tourism industry is backed by ads that have appeared in Jerusalem and aboard flights.

In June, Israel’s Foreign Ministry also said that “the gead of the Foreign Ministry’s Political Strategic Division, Ambassador Alon Bar, is currently holding a working visit to Morocco, during which he will hold a political dialogue with his Moroccan counterpart and meet with the director-general of the Moroccan Foreign Ministry, Fouad Yazur.”

The report noted that “the head of the Middle East Division at the Moroccan Foreign Ministry, Fouad Ahraf, led the political dialogue on the Moroccan side. The goal of the dialogue was to discuss the ways in which bilateral cooperation can be deepened between the two countries, with an emphasis placed on bringing Moroccan workers to Israel, encouraging investment and mutual tourism, and encouraging trade between the two countries.”

The overall context of Israel-Morocco ties, from defense to tourism, culture and diplomatic relations, appears to be one of the major fruits of the Abraham Accords. So far, it also appears to lack the controversy and complexity that can erupt in the Gulf due to the Iranian issue.

That does not mean it is not without its hurdles.

The issue of Western Sahara has ruffled feathers. US President Donald Trump moved to recognize the disputed area as part of Morocco.

That did not go well with everyone in Washington. However, the website Morocco World News said in March that for “lobbyists still hoping that the Biden administration will at some point repudiate the US’ pro-Morocco policy on the Western Sahara dispute, the US Consolidated Appropriations Bill signed into law by President Joe Biden on March 15 is the latest indication that the recognition of Morocco’s sovereignty over Western Sahara is now official US policy.”
Survey: Growing Minority in Gulf Countries Approve of Informal Ties With Israelis
A new poll from the Washington Institute found that although more members of the Gulf region disapprove of the US-brokered Abraham Accords than before, there are growing sentiments toward allowing informal contact with Israelis.

In countries where the Abraham Accords — a series of normalizations between Israel and Arab countries — were initially unpopular, those attitudes have hardened. For example, those who see the accords as “very negative” in Lebanon increased from 41 percent in November 2020 to 66 percent in March 2022.

Of the Arab populations interviewed, the least likely to express a negative viewpoint of the Abraham Accords were the Palestinians. When asked in June 2022, almost half (48 percent) of those living in eastern Jerusalem saw the Abraham Accords in at least a somewhat positive light.

Only 39 percent of Gazans expressed a negative opinion of the Abraham Accords.

While more than two-thirds of citizens in Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE view the Abraham Accords unfavorably, the idea of ties with Israelis is becoming increasingly popular in Gulf countries. Forty percent of Saudis now agree that informal business or sports ties with Israelis should be allowed.

Allowing such ties with Israelis remained at 85 percent in Egypt and 87 percent in Jordan, despite longstanding official relations. A resounding 94 percent of Kuwaitis and 93 percent of Lebanese surveyed disagreed with the idea of ties with Israelis.


Elliot Abrams: Why Biden’s Jerusalem Declaration Matters
Biden also fully embraces in this declaration the “Abraham Accords” — an agreement between Israel and various Arab states negotiated by the Trump administration. Initially, Biden was cool to this Trump achievement. But in this declaration, he is entirely committed: The Accords “are important to the future of the Middle East region and to the cause of regional security, prosperity, and peace.”

Second, Biden’s repetition of pledges to Israel that previous presidents have made is consequential because it is 2022, and the Democratic Party is drifting into an anti-Israel position. The most recent Pew poll finds that while Republicans view Israel more favorably than they view Palestinians by a two-to-one margin, Democrats view Palestinians slightly more favorably — and this is just one in a series of polls going back years and tracing the evolution of Democrats away from support for Israel. There is now a group of Democrats in the House of Representatives whose hostility to Israel is displayed frequently in votes and speeches.

In that context, Biden’s adherence to the “old religion,” the support for Israel that used to characterize Democrats when he was a younger man, is a valuable antidote to recent trends. From the viewpoint of Israel and its supporters, there is some utility in having a Democratic president who is 79 years old and knew Golda Meir and Yitzhak Rabin. Still, how powerful that antidote proves is simply unknowable — as is Biden’s ability to affect the views of Democratic voters, especially younger ones, about U.S.–Israeli relations.

Biden will be in office next year when Israel celebrates its 75th anniversary. He can proudly tell the story of how his Democrat predecessor, Harry Truman, recognized the infant state within minutes of its declaration of independence.

Whether this “Jerusalem Declaration” will eventually be seen as just one in a series of such collegial U.S.–Israel statements or as an anachronism reflecting an aged president who no longer represented the views of his party will be clear only long after Biden has passed from the scene.
Elliot Abrams: The "Two-State Solution" as Panacea Never Fades Away
Biden did add that “the ground is not ripe at this moment to restart negotiations.” But absent from his statements, and from Friedman’s own pontification, was the essential problem: security in the West Bank after a Palestinian state is established. As should be obvious, the Palestinian Authority’s security forces are no match for those of Hamas, which easily booted the much larger PA/PLO/Fatah forces out of Gaza in 2007. An “independent, sovereign” Palestinian state would quickly become a great security threat not only to Israel but to Jordan as well. That is why calls for an independent Palestinian state are empty gestures or simple virtue-signaling unless they confront the security challenge. If you don’t have a solution for the problem of keeping Hamas and other terrorists groups out of power in a new Palestinian state, your demands to establish one are irresponsible. And that is precisely why the “peace camp” in Israel has fared so poorly for the last 20 years.

Today, PA security forces work hard at combatting Hamas’s efforts in the West Bank but there isn’t even a credible argument that they could do so alone, without Israeli intervention. If there were no IDF, Mossad, and Shin Bet (or Jordanian, but that’s another story) activity in the West Bank, there’s little doubt that Hamas would steadily gain power. Hamas control of the West Bank would mean that Islamists in Jordan would have a base for political and terrorist activities that would quickly threaten stability there. And just as Gaza is a base for terrorist activities against Israel, so would the West Bank become one. But that would be far more dangerous than Hamas control of Gaza, due to the geography: Gaza is not adjacent to Israel’s international airport, nor does it look down on the coastal plain where most of Israel’s population and industry are located. These facts are all well understood by Israelis and have been discussed by American and Israeli experts for decades, so it’s almost embarrassing to have to recite them again.

But it is apparently necessary. It’s all too easy for Americans to lecture Israelis on the danger of “maintaining the occupation” which after all is “untenable” or “unsustainable.” But after 55 years, why conclude that it is unsustainable—unless a better option now exists that is also realistic and safe? And why lecture Israelis on its dangers (which certainly exist) when it is they, not Americans, who will bear the risks of coping with a terrorist-controlled West Bank? Israel has faced repeated rounds of conflict in Gaza—even after leaving there in 2005. Those awful little wars would pale in destructiveness compared to a conflict in the West Bank, and the death toll on both sides would be far higher. It’s too easy to repeat old formulas about two states. First, tell us how security for Jordan and Israel would be achieved and maintained. Then give your lecture.
The Saudis See Israel as Key to Regional Stability
Anyone who expected a dramatic breakthrough in Israel-Saudi relations during U.S. President Joe Biden’s visit to the kingdom was disappointed, as was predictable. The Saudis still aren’t ready for far-reaching moves and want to take things slowly. On the face of it, they are also sticking to their standard policy of recent years—the assertion that progress toward normalization will be achievable only after the Saudi peace proposal is implemented, including the establishment of a Palestinian state with eastern Jerusalem as its capital.

But behind this official stance, there is another Saudi Arabia. One proof of this is the approval it gave on Friday for Israeli flights to use its airspace. Other evidence is still under wraps, from senior Israeli officials visiting Saudi Arabia to a long series of deals, mostly related to security and technology.

The thawed ties between Biden and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) will certainly help continue this process. Officially, of course, both sides stuck to their guns: Biden said in a briefing that he scolded MBS about the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, and MBS’s staff said that the crown prince had taken the president to task for the death of Al Jazeera reporter Shireen Abu Akleh.

We can assume that notwithstanding these official accounts, the atmosphere of the meeting was productive. The U.S. wants the Saudis to increase their oil output to help bring down global fuel prices, and the Saudis want improved relations with Washington. They see Israel as a vital conduit to the Americans and a key player in regional stability. The two countries—along with most of the nations in the region, whose leaders took part in a conference with Biden—will try to promote an alliance against hostile entities in the Middle East, primarily Iran.

While Saudi Arabia is careful to keep its ties with Israel a secret, the states that belong to the Abraham Accords continue to enhance them. IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Aviv Kochavi’s upcoming visit to Morocco is another expression of the growing bilateral security ties between Israel and Morocco. Like his visit to Bahrain, Kochavi will be welcomed as an honored guest in Rabat. Morocco wants aid from Israel and approval for business deals in a variety of fields, some of which will move ahead during the visit.
Ruthie Blum: The disgraceful disruption of the Abraham Accords
In one fell swoop, Blinken resuscitated the faux centrality of Palestinian centrality to peace—and he did so as terrorists were slaughtering innocent people in the streets of Hadera (and other cities prior to and immediately after the gathering in Sde Boker).

Hence, for the past year and a half, they've had reason to be nervous about putting their faith in a US-led, anti-Iran coalition with Israel at the forefront. There is no other explanation for the UAE to take the opportunity of Biden's Israel-Saudi sojourn to reveal that it is trying to mend fences with Iran; that and Biden's reiteration of the "two-state solution" mantra and pilgrimage to the P.A. to meet with and promise lots of money to head honcho Mahmoud "pay-for-slay" Abbas.

Team Biden's behavior also sheds light on the Saudis' tired lip service to the kingdom's "requirements for peace" being "a two-state settlement with a Palestinian state in the occupied territories with east Jerusalem as its capital."

This is what Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir said on Saturday, echoing the "Jeddah Communique" between the United States and Saudi Arabia that was signed and released on Saturday. Yet, two days earlier, the Saudi General Authority of Civil Aviation opened the country's airspace to all civil aircraft, including Israel's.

It's no small gesture, and no thanks to Biden, whose foreign-policy moves undermine and threaten the Abraham Accords that Trump and Netanyahu carefully crafted. Nevertheless, he is simultaneously taking credit for the paradigm shift and trying to undo it.

Let's hope that his endeavor is as big a failure as his presidency. Let us pray, as well, that Israelis wake up to the perils of having a government in Jerusalem that enables, if not outright espouses, the thinking that is allowing Iran to possess nuclear bombs and the P.A. to commit mass murder with impunity and international support.
Why Biden’s Visit Proves Squad Losing On Israel
Israel: One Thing Joe Biden and Donald Trump Have in Common
Biden’s praise for Israel at times sounded similar to that of his Republican predecessor Donald Trump. He enthusiastically adopted Trump’s Abraham Accords, which may be the only flagship Trump policy adopted so warmly by the Biden Administration. Indeed, he granted Levi what was billed as his first interview as president with a foreign news outlet.

While Biden and Trump agree on virtually nothing, there is one issue on which there’s seeming consensus: Israel. While there have been recent surveys indicating that this is changing, it can still be said that at a time of hyperpolarization in the US, Israel is what unites Americans with views that vary widely across the political spectrum on domestic issues.

And just like they did when Trump visited, Israelis welcomed Biden with the kind of treatment that may be otherwise reserved for the coming of the actual messiah.

The Hebrew newspaper Maariv greeted him with a rare English headline: “Welcome Mr President.” Good Morning Israel anchor Efi Triger greeted Biden with a statement about Israel being a “small, proud country” and showed off his English vocabulary by promising the president “no malarkey.”

There was one solitary Israeli protester against Biden: Yamina MK Yomtob Kalfon held an Israeli flag as the American commander-in-chief visited the Augusta Victoria Hospital in eastern Jerusalem.

Kalfon said he wanted “to remind him and especially his hosts that this place, adjacent to the Hebrew University next to the Mount of Olives Jewish cemetery is a part of unified and sovereign Jerusalem.”

As such, by ensuring that his visit would be so positive and by putting the Congresswomen of the Squad in their place, Biden proved that the US-Israel relationship continues to transcend politics in both countries.
EU-Israel Association Council to be revived after a decade
EU High Commissioner for Foreign Affairs Josep Borrell emphasized at the end of the Foreign Affairs Council that “the position of the EU has not changed with respect to the Middle East peace process and we will continue…supporting the two-state solution.”

“We know the situation on the ground in the Palestinian territories is deteriorating and I think ministers agree this association council is a good occasion to engage with Israel about these issues,” Borrell said, adding that it would be an appropriate time to think about the EU’s position in the peace process.

A date has not yet been set for the EU-Israel Association Council meeting, but it will be after member states “determine a common EU position,” Borrell said. He added that they will not necessarily wait until after the election on November 1 or for a new government to be formed after that.

“Who knows when the next Israeli government will be formed? Maybe it will be six months or a year,” Borrell said.

Some states called for more progress on peace with the Palestinians before moving towards closer EU-Israel ties.

2020 talks
EU High Commissioner for Foreign Affairs Josep Borrell and then-foreign minister Gabi Ashkenazi began talks to revive the EU-Israel Association Council in 2020, after then-prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu suspended plans to apply Israeli sovereignty to settlements in Judea and Samaria in favor of the Abraham Accords.

Prime Minister Yair Lapid set reconvening the association council as one of his top goals when he became foreign minister last year.
Top EU diplomat delaying key Israel meeting over Abu Akleh killing – official
European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell held up a key forum between Israel and the EU because of the killing of Al Jazeera journalist Shireen Abu Akleh in May, a senior European official told The Times of Israel on Monday.

The Association Council is a meeting that is meant to occur annually between Israel and the EU to cover matters of mutual concern. The last time the two sides met was in 2012, and, as foreign minister, Yair Lapid made it a goal to reconvene the forum.

At the May 16 EU Foreign Affairs Council meeting in Brussels, the 27 EU foreign ministers managed to agree on a draft of a joint statement for an Association Council with Israel, a significant hurdle to overcome before convening the forum.

“We got it,” said the official. “That was a miracle.”

The final step was to get the text on the agenda of the European Council, the body that sets the political direction of the European Union. “That depends on Josep Borrell,” recounted the official.

Borrell had been reluctant to advance an Association Council with Israel, but came around because of pressure from EU member states.
70 Percent of Gas from Israel's Leviathan Field Goes to Egypt and Jordan
Yigal Landau, CEO of Ratio Oil Exploration Ltd., which holds a 15% stake in Israel's Leviathan gas field drilling rig, said in an interview, quoting Israel Energy Ministry experts:

"In Israel's economic territorial waters...if there is more than 1,000 BCM (billion cubic meters) of natural gas in the area between the Karish, Leviathan, and Tamar fields, there is a similar amount in the ground still waiting to be found."

"Currently, Leviathan is producing gas at the rate of 11 BCM per year, within a maximum capacity of 12. Nearly 70% of this gas goes to Egypt and Jordan, and the rest to Israel."

There are plans to expand the capacity at Leviathan to 21 BCM by 2025.
German public TV blasted for airing claim ‘Jewish lobby’ controls US Mideast policy
The airing on German public television of an interview in which a German political scientist claimed that the Biden administration’s foreign policy was controlled by the “Jewish lobby” drew sharp criticism online and in the German media.

The interview with researcher Josef Braml was conducted on Friday by ZDF television reporter Dunja Hayali. Braml is listed on the website of the German Council on Foreign Relations as an expert on the United States.

There are “domestic reasons” accounting for U.S. President Joe Biden’s Israel policies, said Braml. “It is not just the Jewish lobby, but also the Christian right. … Jerusalem plays a very important role there,” he said.

German journalist Max Mannhart wrote in Tichys Einblick magazine on Monday that “on German public television, the anti-Semitic conspiracy theory of the infiltration of U.S. politics by an alleged ‘Jewish lobby’ is openly played out.”

He noted that Hayali had chuckled as she transitioned to the next topic.

Leonard Kaminski, the American Jewish Committee’s assistant director of government affairs in Berlin, tweeted: “Didn’t want to believe my ears, but Josef Braml just invented in @morgenmagzin [ZDF], which went unchallenged, [that] the power of the “Jewish lobby” directs US politics. Classic global-conspiracy Nazi anti-Semitism is probably back in the mainstream now. Great.”

This is not the first time Braml has made controversial statements regarding the so-called Jewish lobby.

In a 2019 radio interview with Broadcast Germany, he lashed out at the “Jewish lobby” and the “pro-Israel lobby” for their alleged influence over former U.S. President Donald Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran’s nuclear weapons program.
J Street’s reaction to Lapid as prime minister: Crickets
J Street was founded in 2008 as a progressive American Jewish organization opposed to the policies of then-Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. For the next 14 years, J Street harshly criticized both Netanyahu and his right-wing successor Naftali Bennett, especially regarding West Bank settlements, relations with the Palestinian Authority, and the Iran nuclear deal.

But now, for the first time in J Street’s history, Israel has a moderate, centrist prime minister, Yair Lapid. Lapid supports the two-state solution. He has reached out to the PA. He even hosted J Street CEO Jeremy Ben-Ami and a visiting congressional delegation last November in Jerusalem while serving as Foreign Minister.

Lapid favors rebuilding ties with the Democratic Party, ties that Netanyahu jeopardized with his contempt for President Obama and his embrace of President Trump. Lapid also maintains strong relations with many Arab leaders and other important members of Arab civil society, including West Bank Palestinians.

One would think all this would lead J Street to applaud the new winds of change from Jerusalem, and to express support for Prime Minister Lapid. After all, J Street claims to be a “pro-Israel” organization, and this seems an ideal opportunity for J Street to show it truly is pro-Israel.

Unfortunately, however, this has not been the case. J Street, which issued a multitude of press releases over the years attacking Prime Ministers Netanyahu and Bennett, failed to issue a single press release congratulating Lapid on his ascension to the prime ministership earlier this month, even as it churned out a number of other, unrelated press releases in late June and early July.


U.S. Marines Integrate Iron Dome Interceptor and Launcher to Counter Cruise Missiles
The U.S. Marine Corps carried out a series of tests using its Medium-Range Intercept Capability (MRIC) prototype together with Israel's Iron Dome Tamir interceptor and launcher.

During the live-fire tests at the White Sands Missile Range in New Mexico on June 30, MRIC successfully hit several simultaneously-launched cruise missile targets from different directions and in different trajectories.

"MRIC successfully hit each target using the Tamir missile," the Marines said.

"Once again, the Iron Dome has proven its effectiveness and operational capabilities in combat scenarios," said Brig.-Gen. (res.) Pinhas Yungman, Executive Vice President of the Rafael Air & Missile Defense Division.

"American troops operated the system which functioned at optimal effectiveness against a variety of threats."
UN Watch: Palestinian Spy Chief To Head 17-Member Delegation At UN Torture Committee Review of PA Record
Palestinian interior minister and former intelligence commander Ziad Hab al-Reeh, long-time chief of the Preventive Security agency that last year beat critic Nizar Banat to death, will head a senior delegation of 17 officials from Ramallah at tomorrow’s United Nations review of the Palestinian Authority record on eradicating torture.

“President Abbas is showing his contempt for the UN committee by sending the long-time head of an agency notorious for torturing detainees with threats of violence, solitary confinement, beatings, including lashing and whipping of the feet of detainees, forcing detainees into painful stress positions for prolonged periods, including using cables or ropes to hoist up arms behind the back,” said Hillel Neuer, executive director of the Geneva-based human rights organization UN Watch.

The UN Committee Against Torture, a panel of 10 independent experts, will meet tomorrow and Wednesday to consider Palestinian compliance with the UN convention against torture and other cruel forms of punishment.

Today, Mr. Neuer and other UN Watch representatives will meet with the UN committee to present its major new report documenting how the Palestinian Authority and Hamas routinely torture human rights activists, women, LGBT persons, political opponents, so-called “collaborators,” and Palestinians who sell land to Jews. Click here for press release
FDD: Palestinian Islamic Jihad Purportedly Establishes New Formation in the West Bank
A statement published by Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) in the West Bank officially announced the formation of Katibat Tubas after armed clashes took place in Tubas against Israel Defense Forces’ (IDF) troops on Sunday.

“We in the Tubas Brigade, announce the launch of our blessed jihad work in this clash that our mujahideen fought with the occupation forces, which led to the direct injury and damage of the occupation’s mechanisms, to confirm that we are continuing our jihad and resistance and engaging our enemy until victory and liberation,” the statement said.

The purported establishment of Katibat Tubas signals an ongoing pattern of escalation by PIJ in the West Bank. The nascent organization will be the fourth PIJ subunit to be established in the West Bank following Katibat Jenin, Nablus and Tulkarm.

FDD’s Long War Journal has been tracking the uptick in Palestinian militant activity and the establishment of the formations in West Bank cities since last year. [See FDD’s Long War Journal: Analysis: Understanding the Militant Groups Behind the Violence in the West Bank.]

Pro-Resistance Axis media in the Palestinian territories and Lebanon also reported PIJ’s announcement.

The creation of the PIJ formations in various cities in the West Bank are likely in response to several events that occurred in 2021. The cancellation of the Palestinian elections last year, the May 2021 Gaza-Israel war, and the increase in IDF operations in the West Bank all contributed to the apparent change in strategy by West Bank Palestinian militant groups.
New media outlet may have ties to Palestinian terrorist group
A new Palestinian media outlet announced on July 8 has close ties to NGOs that are allegedly fronts for the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, a recent review of the outlet's announcement materials shows.

Al Falasteniyeh Media Network is allegedly connected to the Samidoun Palestinian Prisoner Solidarity Network and the Palestinian Alternative Revolutionary Path Movement (Masar Badil), both accused of PFLP affiliation. According to Al Akhbar, US-based executive director and creative director Rumzi Taji Farooqi is close to Masar Badil.

Connections to suspected PFLP-affiliated NGOs
The announcement of the creation of Al Falasteniyeh was made simultaneously by both Samidoun and Masar Badil on the 50th anniversary of former PFLP leader Ghassan Kanafani, who is venerated by the NGOs.

“On the 50th anniversary of the assassination of Ghassan Kanafani, in honor of his legacy, and in honor of all Palestinians and Arabs who have sacrificed so much to tell our stories, we announce; Al Falasteniyeh Media Network,” Al Falasteniyeh's official announcement said.

“The reason why Ghassan Kanafani’s memory was chosen to announce this effort is not only because of the symbolism, significance and importance of the memory, but also to emphasize the revolutionary school to which the working group belongs in this new media network," an anonymous source within Al Falasteniyeh told Al Akhbar.
MEMRI: Following Rumors That Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas Is Ill, Palestinians Continue To Call For Establishing Arrangement For Transfer Of Power To New President
In the recent weeks there have been rumors that Mahmoud Abbas, the 86-year-old president of the Palestinian Authority (PA), is ill,[1] after in early June there were even rumors on social media that he had died. Amid the rumors, it was reported that Abbas has been preparing Hussein Al-Sheikh, the secretary-general of the PLO Executive Committee, to succeed him as president and is about to transfer some of his powers to Al-Sheikh. These rumors about Abbas' precarious health and about preparations for Al-Sheikh to replace him – which were vehemently denied by elements in Fatah and the PLO – rekindled the debate in the Palestinian press as to who would replace Abbas in the event of his departure or death.

The question of Abbas’s successor has been occupying the Palestinian public for years.[2] Due to the constitutional crisis caused by the 2007 by the schism between Fatah and Hamas, and since no elections to the PA institutions have been held since then,[3] there is no agreed-upon mechanism for filling a vacancy in the position of president. The PA constitution states that, in the event of such a vacancy, the speaker of the Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) serves as interim president until elections are held. However, Fatah is unlikely to allow such a move, since Hamas has a majority in the PLC, and also because the PLC was officially dissolved by Abbas in 2018.[4]

Perhaps in an attempt to address this problem, Abbas has been leading a controversial strategy in the recent years, the essence of which is using the PLO institutions to bypass the PLC, on the grounds that the PLO established the PA and is therefore the source of the PA's authority.[5] In 2018, the Palestinian National Council (PNC) authorized the PLO Central Council to serve as the PLO's legislative body, and it appears that Abbas and his supporters regard the Central Council as the legislative body not only of the PLO but also of the PA. Palestinian analysts assess that it will be one of the senior PLO officials, such as PNC Speaker Rawhi Fattouh or Executive Committee Secretary-General Hussein Al-Sheikh, who will succeed Abbas on a temporary or permanent basis in the event that he becomes incapacitated.[6]

Abbas himself has not yet officially named a successor or set up a definite mechanism for appointing one, but his intentions can perhaps be inferred from his actions and from reports in the Arab and Palestinian press that is not identified with the PA. The most conspicuous development in this context is the rapid promotion of PA Civil Affairs Minister and Fatah Central Committee member Hussein Al-Sheikh, who, according to knowledgeable sources, is Abbas's intended successor.[7]
PMW: Palestinian terrorist murderer finishes MA in Israeli prison
The Palestinian Birzeit University launched its 2022 graduation ceremonies by granting an MA to Palestinian terrorist murderer Zakariya Zubeidi. Announcing the award, a university judging committee member said:
“[Zakariya Zubeidi] completed [his studies] with highest honor in implementation, and with highest honor in theoretical thinking. This is a success for Palestine, for the fighter’s rifle.

[Official PA TV, Palestine This Morning, July 3, 2022]


The official PA daily used the event as on opportunity to attack Israel - which it referred to, as usual, as “the occupation” - calling the arrest of a terrorist murderer a “violation against education”:
“Yesterday, Friday [July 1, 2022], Birzeit University began its graduation ceremony celebrations of the 47th class of its students from the legal and public administration faculty and the faculty for higher education…

The occupation’s actions and violations against education in Palestine were present at the graduation ceremony, as the student daughter of prisoner Zakariya Zubeidi who is imprisoned in the occupation’s [prison] cells, received her father’s master’s degree diploma in modern Arab studies.”

[Official PA daily Al-Hayat Al-Jadida, July 2, 2022]


Zubeidi was the head of the Al-Aqsa Martyrs' Brigades (Fatah's military wing) in the Jenin area during the 2000 – 2005 PA terror campaign. During that period, he oversaw numerous lethal attacks. Despite his terror activities, in 2007, as part of a deal with the PA, Zubeidi was taken off Israel's wanted list on condition that he refrain from further participation in terror. He was subsequently given a position in the PA Ministry of Prisoners' Affairs and made a Fatah Revolutionary Council member.

Despite having received a second chance in life, Zubeidi was arrested by Israel on Feb. 27, 2019, for again participating in shooting attacks against Israelis.


PreOccupiedTerritory: Palestinians Don’t Know Whether To Tout Dead Terrorist As ‘Journalist’ Or ‘Child’ (satire)
Divisions emerged among propagandists for the jihadist militants targeting the Jews of the Jewish homeland over the last several weeks, with one major faction insisting that their movement maintain its proven practice of referring to all fighters who get killed in confrontations with the IDF as minors, and the other urging that the movement ride the current wave of international concern for the safety of reporters in conflict zones, and refer to any such martyred fighters as such.

Palestinian activists and political figures continued their recent debate today over how to characterize dead terrorists for a credulous international news media, which will convey uncritically to their audience reports that Israel’s military has once again killed innocent noncombatants: keep calling all the dead terrorists “children” regardless of their having achieved majority and trained with terrorist organizations, in keeping with decades of Palestinian precedent; or exploit the righteous outrage over cases such as Jamal Khashoggi or Al Jazeera journalist Shireen Abu Akleh and have the same media call the dead terrorists reporters instead?

“Tradition has a momentum all its own,” explained Hanan Ashrawi, a veteran Palestinian propagandist. “I see the benefit of latching onto the latest trend, since the Palestinian cause has always hitched itself to the latest issue of concern, but I would argue that sticking to the ‘Israeli Occupation Slaughters Innocent Palestinian Child’ model has served us well and has shown no signs of losing its utility, so why mess with what works? Chasing after the fickle concerns of the western liberal elite runs the risk of hitting the wrong note if one’s timing is off. The classics became the classics for good reason.”
Nasrallah Warns of a Military Clash with Israel over Mediterranean Gas
Hizbullah’s propaganda machine asserts that a new stage of the conflict with Israel has begun and that Hizbullah is in a state of operational preparedness for a wide-scale war that will not be limited to special operations. The organization published an interactive map of Israel’s energy production facilities in the Mediterranean, emphasizing that they are within Hizbullah’s striking range. Hizbullah also underlined that Israel’s IDF military command opposes military action and recommends that Israel’s political leadership show flexibility and reach an agreement with Lebanon.

Meanwhile, Mohammad Raad, head of Hizbullah’s bloc in the Lebanese parliament and a personal confidant of Nasrallah, said that Hizbullah “does not wish for war, but is ready and prepared for it…. You will see our might when you make a wrong choice and resort to aggression in the coming days.”

Hizbullah Perceives American Reluctance to Step In
Hizbullah is encouraged by the fact that the United States is not taking Israel’s side on the issues in dispute and by the fact that President Biden’s visit to Israel did not address the dispute. Furthermore, Hizbullah views transitional Prime Minister Yair Lapid’s silence in the face of Nasrallah’s threats as Israeli reluctance to be drawn into a military clash with Hizbullah. Hizbullah has put together a profile of Lapid, and it is now carefully observing his moves. Overall, it appears that Hizbullah interprets Israel’s silence as a desire to avoid a military confrontation during the election campaign for fear that it would influence the results.

Analysis of Nasrallah’s behavior indicates that he is prepared to take risks vis-à-vis Israel, which, for its part, has been sidestepping them so far. Nasrallah interprets Israel’s wariness of a confrontation as a weakness stemming from the fact that it is deterred and fearful of armed hostilities.
IDF shoots down Hezbollah drone after it crosses into Israel
The IDF has shot down a Hezbollah drone that crossed the Lebanon border into Israel on Monday evening, according to Israeli media.

The IDF confirmed that they identified the drone crossing the border earlier on Monday and shot it down. The drone was monitored by the IAF air control units throughout the incident.

Earlier this month, the IDF shot down an additional three unmanned aerial vehicles launched by Hezbollah toward Israel's economic waters over the Mediterranean Sea.

The UAVs were determined to not have been armed and did not pose a real threat. Instead, it is believed that they were launched by Hezbollah to fly over the Karish gas rig for propaganda purposes.

Recently, Defense Minister Benny Gantz stated that Hezbollah has been working with Hamas to develop military ties and deepen Hamas's control of Palestinian refugee camps in Lebanon.
Putin, Erdogan head to Iran for talks on Syria, future of Middle East
Russian President Vladimir Putin is set to meet with Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during his upcoming visit to Iran’s capital Tehran, the Russian state-owned news agency RIA reported Monday, citing spokesperson Dmitry Peskov.

The trip signifies a new era of Turkey-Iran-Russia relations, with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan also heading to Tehran to meet his Iranian and Russian counterparts this week.

This comes in the wake of US President Joe Biden visiting the region. The goal of the July 18-19 meeting in Iran is ostensibly part of the Astana process relating to Syria and could have significant ramifications for Syria which remains divided.

The Russian and Iranian-backed Syrian regime controls the major cities, while Turkey controls northwest Syria, and the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces control eastern Syria.

Russia’s goal in Syria is a stable Syrian regime. Iran’s goal is to use Syria as a base for threats against Israel and to traffic weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Turkey’s goal in Syria is to use it as a dumping ground for Syrian refugee push-backs, to cultivate pro-Turkish Syrian rebel groups, and to remove Kurds from border areas. The US goal in Syria is ostensibly to defeat ISIS, although ISIS was mostly defeated in 2019. The US overall policy remains unclear.






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