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Tuesday, April 19, 2022

04/19 Links Pt1: How Palestinians Desecrate Everyone's Holy Sites, Including Their Own; A Revived Iran Deal Is Bad News for Democracy

From Ian:

How Palestinians Desecrate Everyone's Holy Sites, Including Their Own
"We salute every drop of blood spilled for the sake of Jerusalem. This blood is clean, pure blood, shed for the sake of Allah. Every martyr will be placed in Paradise, and all the wounded will be rewarded by Allah." — Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, MEMRI, September 16, 2015.

The small number of Jews who have peacefully toured the outdoor Temple Mount area in the past few years have never even set foot inside the Aqsa Mosque or on the nearby Dome of the Rock. The Jewish visitors do not go there to assault or humiliate Muslims. They go there as part of organized tours that are coordinated with the Israeli authorities.

Blinken's remarks show that he considers the construction of new homes for Jews more dangerous than the murder of Israelis on the streets of Israeli cities.

This is all happening while the Biden administration airily disregards endless Palestinian blood libels and vicious incitement against both Israel and the Jews.

Prominently, Blinken did not threaten to suspend US financial aid to the Palestinians over the payments to the families of terrorists who murdered Jews and the ongoing incitement to attack Israelis.

Take note: as long as Blinken considers the construction of apartments for Jews a greater threat than shooting and stabbing Israeli men and women at shopping malls and bars, the Palestinians will not cease their blood payments and murderous incitement.

Unless the US administration makes it unmistakably clear that the Palestinians will pay dearly for continuing to reward terrorists and their families, the Palestinians will not even slow down either desecrating holy sites or committing their terror attacks.
David Singer: Jew-hatred in Jerusalem
Jordan’s failure to promote interfaith relations between Muslims and Jews has once again witnessed rioting on the Temple Mount in Jerusalem.

More than 400 Arabs were arrested and more than 150 wounded by Israeli police – reacting to lethal rocks and other objects being stockpiled inside the Mosque and stones being thrown at Jews worshipping below at Judaism’s holiest site – the Western Wall.

Jordan and Israel committed to undertake the following obligations under the terms of article 9 of their 1994 Peace Treaty:

1.Each Party will provide freedom of access to places of religious and historical significance.

2.In this regard, in accordance with the Washington Declaration, Israel respects the present special role of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan in Muslim Holy shrines in Jerusalem. When negotiations on the permanent status will take place, Israel will give high priority to the Jordanian historic role in these shrines.

3.The Parties will act together to promote interfaith relations among the three monotheistic religions, with the aim of working towards religious understanding, moral commitment, freedom of religious worship, and tolerance and peace.

Jordan has done little to promote interfaith relations with Jews – whilst actively promoting interfaith relations with Christians.
Hamas-Led Militant Groups Create Strife at Al-Aqsa Mosque
Having partially succeeded in creating a short-lived crisis on Friday, militant groups refrained from responding militarily after their self-imposed red lines were crossed by Israeli police activity on the grounds and inside Al-Aqsa Mosque.

It remains unclear if it was behind the scenes mediation, effective handling of the rioting or both that prevented the clashes from snowballing into a wider conflict.

However, a Western official who spoke to FDD’s Long War Journal cautioned there could be more violence in the coming days.

Hamas often exploits events in the West Bank and Israel. Added to the recent anti-terrorism operations by Israeli security forces that has claimed the lives of a number of militants, manufacturing a crisis at Al-Aqsa Mosque benefits Hamas by further destabilizing the already tense security situation left in the wake of four high-profile terrorist attacks inside of Israel.

Though Palestinian militant organizations seem to have been careful in not responding militarily from Gaza, it’s unlikely these conditions will remain if further violence continues.

Hamas official Zaher Jabarin echoed this assessment on Hezbollah-linked Al-Mayadeen on Sunday when he warned that if Israel continued to cross red lines at Al-Aqsa Mosque, the organization would respond militarily.

Zaher added the response would not necessarily come from Gaza or the West Bank, suggesting the Resistance Axis in Lebanon, Syria, Yemen or Iraq could also launch an assault.


UN Security Council to hold emergency consultation on Jerusalem unrest
The UN Security Council will convene an emergency closed-door session Tuesday to discuss recent unrest in Jerusalem, a UN diplomat said Monday.

The meeting comes as tensions in the region have spiraled, with several days of intense clashes between Palestinian rioters and Israeli police on the Temple Mount sparking fears that a wider conflagration could be ignited.

On Monday evening, violence threatened to ramp up further, as Israeli communities near the Gaza border came under rocket attack from Palestinian enclave, with the projectile intercepted by the Iron Dome defense system.

Requests for the Security Council meeting were made by France, China, Ireland, Norway, and the United Arab Emirates, the UN diplomat told The Times of Israel, speaking on condition of anonymity.

The Israeli and Palestinian envoys will not be invited to the meeting, and no draft resolution on the situation is being discussed or is expected to be proposed, diplomats said.

Instead, the meeting will largely serve as an opportunity for member states to receive an update on the situation from the UN’s envoy for the Mideast peace process Tor Wennesland, two diplomats on the council told The Times of Israel.

On Friday, Wennesland urged “both sides to immediately de-escalate the situation and prevent any further provocations by radical actors,” following the fiercest clashes seen in over a year at the flashpoint Al-Aqsa Mosque on the Temple Mount.
Seth Frantzman: Despite talk of reconciliation, Turkish state media is anti-Israel
This is how Ankara tries to play both sides: it puts out hints that it shares Israel’s views regarding Iran, but doesn’t mention Iran by name.

Meanwhile, Turkey’s real face is shown in its statements.

“Turkey: Israeli-Palestinian tensions could jeopardize relations with Israel,” was a recent headline on Ynet. This is the real Ankara message. Ankara stands firmly with the Palestinians, and has tended to prefer Hamas to the Palestinian Authority.

Ankara’s state media TRT regularly incites against Israel. This week it claimed that “settlers storm al-Aqsa compound as Israeli police force worshipers out.” This is part of the wave of incitement being pushed by Hamas, Iran and other extremists trying to inflame tensions in Jerusalem. Ankara and the right-wing ruling party in Turkey are particularly supportive of messages that want to make “al-Aqsa” an issue.

In the past, voices in the AKP sought to compare the “liberation” of al-Aqsa with Turkey’s recent decision to turn Hagia Sophia into a mosque. Turkish media also highlights other voices that back the Palestinians, such as Qatar’s claim that “Israeli raids on al-Aqsa Mosque must end.”

The statements in Turkish media and by its ruling party show that although there was talk of reconciliation last month, Ankara does nothing to calm tensions in Jerusalem. Ankara prefers to stoke the tensions and print misleading articles than to push for some kind of peace in Jerusalem. In this, Ankara continues to show its Janus-face: it shows one face in Washington, where it tries to pretend that Ankara and Jerusalem share interests, and shows another face to Hamas, Iran and extremists in the region.

Some say that Turkey merely “compartmentalizes” these issues, backing and inflaming Palestinian factions with one hand while wanting more energy ties and deals with Israel with the other. However, Ankara has had ample time to change its tune in its state-controlled media. Because the media takes marching orders directly from the government, the articles in TRT and other media and the words used, such as “storming,” are evidence that Ankara has not changed its real stance.
Will Israeli soccer fans be safe at the Qatar World Cup?
Almost 15,000 Israelis have already purchases tickets for the 2022 Qatar World Cup, and sports travel agencies estimate that 25,000-30,000 Israelis will travel to Qatar for the event. But Israel and Qatar still do not have formal diplomatic relations, and multiple reports have said that Qatar is supporting Hamas.

Next week, the National Security Council is due to discuss the possible dangers for Israelis in Qatar, especially since Iranian officials are expected to attend the tournament and there is concern that attacks might be plotted against any Israelis present.

The Qatar World Cup is scheduled to begin on Nov. 21.

An official involved in the matter told Israel Hayom that "This is a complicated security challenge, that requires cooperation with all the Qatari authorities, something we aren't certain will happen.

"Only after our meeting will we understand if and how we can handle this challenge. So many Israelis are scheduled to be there – it's something that has never happened in a state with which we have unstable relations, to say the least."

The official said Israel hopes that the Qataris would want to please the tournament organizers and would comply with various requests to allow it to proceed without any problems.

"If we can't agree on what we need, it's possible [Israel] might issue a warning not to travel to Qatar. This is all pragmatic, we aren't playing games," he added.

One of the security pitfalls foreseen is hotels. Six months out from the tournament, Doha is short on hotel rooms for the World Cup. Qatar is discussing the possibility of having cruise ships anchor off its coast to provide some 4,000 additional rooms.

Even now, the website of the National Security Council's Counter-Terrorism Bureau is running a warning against unnecessary travel to Qatar: "In light of the public hostility toward Israel in Qatar and the presence there of terrorist actors, Israeli citizens who travel/visit Qatar are at risk."
Seth Frantzman: The drug trade in Syria threatens Jordan amid Jerusalem tensions
The increasing power of the drug trade linked to the regime of Bashar Assad has begun to raise concerns in the region. This was clear from a BBC article detailing the way that Jordan is fighting an “undeclared war” against drug traffickers.

The growing threat of the Captagon drug trade has been detailed by Caroline Rose at New Lines Institute over the last years. (Captagon is the brand name of the addictive amphetamine-based drug generically known as fenethylline.) Her pioneering work on this issue is important, as the increased focus on the drug trade in media and by countries in the region have made that clear.

Along with Alexander Soderholm, Rose wrote in April 2022, “Over the course of 2019, 2020 and 2021, investigative reports and law enforcement systems identified that many of the largest Captagon interceptions have originated from sites that only can be accessed by Syrian Army personnel and high-level government officials, members of the Assad family’s inner circle and, as of recently, the IRGC [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps].”

Meanwhile the BBC notes that Ian Larson, a Syria analyst for the Center for Operational Analysis and Research, a Cyprus-based consultancy, said, “The areas in which Captagon production is most pronounced are those controlled by the Assad regime and close familial relations of the regime.”

The amount of money pouring into this trade is estimated in the billions. For a poor regime like Syria, or for Iran, this is big bucks.

“The pills regularly show up in ports, airports and at crossing points – often expertly hidden. They have been found inside containers of machinery and fruits – even fake ones. The Jordanian authorities have released footage of them being removed from animal carcasses,” the BBC noted.

What matters now is how the drug trade is potentially harming Jordan.
Right-wing activists plan Jerusalem flag march amid Temple Mount tensions
Right-wing activists plan to march around the walls of the Old City of Jerusalem on Wednesday afternoon, despite lacking police approval for the event.

The Old City Youth organization and other right-wing groups announced on Tuesday that police had refused to secure a flag march the groups plan to hold around the walls of the Old City on Wednesday afternoon.

According to the groups, police claimed that the request for security was made too close to the date of the event. The groups responded that they "could not have known that there would be terrorist attacks and that the Old City would be desolate during the intermediary days of the holiday which are [usually] its peak days."

The groups rejected the police's request to reschedule the march, saying "the police are essentially declaring to the citizens of Israel that there is no security in the Old City during this Passover, a worrying statement in terms of morals and security."

The groups stressed that they intend to march in any case on Wednesday at 5 p.m., telling police "you've forgotten your role. We'll march, you secure [it]."

Israel Police stressed in a statement that it had invited the organizers of the event to a meeting to reschedule the event and that the organizers had published the details of the event before receiving permission to hold the event from police. The police added that they are ready to secure the event if it's held at a later date.
Thousands March to Dismantled West Bank Settlement
In the West Bank on Tuesday, thousands of Israeli right-wing activists were marching to the dismantled settlement of Homesh, despite Israeli military objections over security concerns.

Israeli media reported that yeshiva organizers reached an agreement with the Defense Ministry which saw to it that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) secured the march, which runs just under a mile past several Palestinian villages.

Organizers said that the estimated number of participants in the march to Homesh went from the original estimate of 10,000 to possibly 20,000.

In addition to the IDF, there was a local police force presence along the march route.

Right-wing members of Israel’s parliament, the Knesset, were participating in the march, including leader of the Religious Zionist party, Bezalel Smotrich; Otzma Yehudit party leader Itamar Ben-Gvir; and Idit Silman, the recently departed coalition whip who left the government.

Separately on Tuesday, the Israeli police announced that it would not secure the plan by the right-wing movement Im Tirtzu for a flag march in Jerusalem slated for Wednesday.
Israel Security Forces Arrest 11 Terror Suspects Amid Clashes With Palestinian Rioters, Jerusalem Unrest
Israeli security forces together with the IDF overnight arrested 11 Palestinian terror suspects in a number of towns across the West Bank.

The IDF said it conducted joint raids with security forces “following the recent rise in the threat of terrorism.” The Israeli army has been on high alert during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, increasing its military operations in the West Bank after a wave of terror attacks over the past month that killed 14 people.

“The main goal is to ensure security for the citizens of Israel throughout the country,” Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said during a security assessment meeting over the weekend. “The security forces are continuing to receive a free hand from the political echelon for any measure to ensure security for the citizens of Israel.”

“We are working to calm things down on the one hand and are taking vigorous action against violent individuals on the other. The security forces are ready for any scenario,” Bennett remarked.

IDF soldiers on Sunday night apprehended a terror suspect in the town of Yamun, west of Jenin in the northern West Bank. As IDF troops entered the town, they were attacked by dozens of Palestinian rioters, the army said. Two Palestinians were reported to have been critically injured, according to the Palestinian Wafa news agency.

“The rioters hurled rocks and explosive devices and fired at the soldiers, endangering their safety,” the IDF stated. “The soldiers responded with live ammunition toward the suspects who hurled explosive devices. Hits were identified.”
Canadian Muslim Group Blames Israel For Violent Palestinian Rioting
For several weeks, Israel has tried to work with relevant authorities to prevent violence at this holy time and despite the rioting, ensured that 60,000 Palestinian-Arabs could pray at Al Aqsa after the morning riots.

The NCCM eblast continued by claiming the same occurred last year: “This has happened before. Just last year in Ramadan 2021, Israeli forces came into Al Aqsa Mosque in clear violation of international human rights law. Then came the devastating war that followed.”

In 2021, during the Hamas-led war against Israel, the Al Aqsa Mosque was used by Palestinian extremists as a staging ground for violent attacks against Jewish worshipers at the Western Wall. This is not a matter of opinion, and it is not up for dispute. It is a matter of public record, supported by significant amount of photographic proof from inside the Al Aqsa Mosque, showing rocks and fireworks being kept inside the holy site by Palestinian extremists.

As such, the Palestinians injured during last year’s riots, just like the 150 estimated to be injured recently, are the fault entirely of Palestinian-Arab rioters, not of Israel.

The NCCM campaign, which encouraged readers and followers to write to Canada’s Foreign Minister, Melanie Joly, demanding a condemnation of Israel, is not only outright disinformation, but in our view, is egregious incitement.

Rather than correctly pointing the finger at the violent Palestinian rioters who are turning a revered Islamic holy site into a place of violence, the NCCM has decided to perversely engage in victim blaming. By making this argument, the NCCM, in our view, is engaging in incitement against Israel, accusing it of violating the religious rights of Muslims. This is an extraordinarily serious claim, and given that it is utter fiction, it is remarkably irresponsible and dangerous on the part of NCCM, in our eyes, to give a platform to this conspiracy theory.

During last year’s war between Hamas and Israel, Jews were randomly targeted for hate crimes by pro-Palestinian activists around the world, including in Canada. And by continuing to beat this drum of disinformation, the NCCM, in our estimation, is actively throwing gasoline on the fire of antisemitism.
BBC coverage of violence in Jerusalem – part one
Since late March several reports published on the BBC News website have included statements along the lines of:
“There are fears of further incidents in the month ahead, when the Muslim festival of Ramadan, the Jewish festival of Passover and the Christian festival of Easter coincide in a rare convergence.”

However, as documented here, none of those BBC reports bothered to explain the relevant topic of the incitement put out by assorted Palestinian factions long ahead of Ramadan.

Following the terror attacks in Be’er Sheva, Hadera, Bnei Brak and Tel Aviv and subsequent counter-terrorism activities focusing mainly on the Jenin district, on March 14th the BBC News website published a report titled “Palestinian deaths mount as tensions with Israel spiral”.

Notably, the report mentions the arrest of a terrorist responsible for the attack in which Malachi Rosenfeld was murdered during Ramadan in 2015 which the BBC did not report at the time.

“One of those arrested was a fugitive member of the militant group Hamas who was accused of shooting dead an Israeli in 2015 and had recently escaped from Palestinian custody, according to Israel.”

That report once again promotes the theme of potential violence supposedly related to three religious festivals, this time mentioning rallying calls put out by Hamas and other factions but failing to clarify that non-Muslims can visit Temple Mount during limited hours only and are not allowed to pray there.


Rocket fired from Gaza, intercepted over southern border communities – IDF
A rocket fired from the Gaza Strip on Monday evening was intercepted by the Iron Dome air defense system, the military said.

Incoming rocket sirens sounded in the towns of Kissufim and Ein HaShlosha, near the border with the Strip.

The Eshkol regional council and the Magen David Adom ambulance service said there were no reports of injuries following the rocket attack. Local residents were told to stay in sealed rooms amid concerns over more potential attacks. The regional council later said there was no change in instructions for residents.

Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, Defense Minister Benny Gantz, and military chief Aviv Kohavi were slated to hold a meeting later Monday to discuss a potential response to the rocket attack, according to Hebrew-language media reports.

A video posted to social media purported to show the moment the rocket was intercepted by the Iron Dome.
Israel strikes targets in Gaza following rocket fire
The Israeli Air Force struck targets in the Gaza Strip overnight on Tuesday in response to earlier rocket fire launched towards southern Israel.

“Fighter planes attacked a number of targets and destroyed a Hamas weapons production facility," the IDF Spokesperson’s Unit said in a statement. "Israel regards Hamas as responsible for all events in and from the Strip.”

Hamas spokesperson Hazim Qassem said that there were no injuries in the strikes that targeted a site west of Khan Younis and claimed anti-aircraft fire was launched at the planes. According to reports, a Russian-made Strela (SA-7) shoulder-to-air missile was fired at Israeli jets.

“The Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades announced that its air defenses responded to the hostile Israeli warplanes at 1:35 a.m., in the skies of the Gaza Strip with surface-to-air missiles,” SAFA news agency reported.

The IDF confirmed to The Jerusalem Post that a missile had been fired at the jets.

“The attempt to hit the planes failed, there were no casualties and no damage was done to the aircraft,” the military said.


Gaza Terrorists Fired Russian Anti-Aircraft Missiles at IAF Combat Planes
Gaza terrorists fired Russian-made anti-aircraft missiles at Israeli Air Force combat planes as they carried out retaliatory air strikes shortly after midnight Tuesday morning.

IDF Destroys Hamas Weapons Factory After Gaza Rocket Attack

The Israeli air strikes were carried out to retaliate for rocket fire aimed hours earlier at southern Jewish communities.

Arab sources said Gaza terrorists “launched a number of anti-aircraft missiles” during the raid on Hamas sites in southern Gaza.

“The missile aimed at a fighter jet in southern Gaza was a Russian Strela,” Hosein Mortada wrote in a tweet. “For the first time, the resistance uses a shoulder-fired missile against enemy aircraft.”

Hamas has fired Russian-made 9K32 Strela-2 surface-to-air missiles at Israeli aircraft over Gaza on several occasions during this calendar year, although all were evaded, or missed entirely.

“This is a fairly new development that until recently, was a rare occurrence,” journalist Alex Tiffin noted.

These same anti-aircraft missiles are being used by Russian forces to defend its navy personnel in Ukraine as they continue their invasion of that country.


Islamic Scholar in Gaza: Goal of Jihad? Make People Convert to Islam
Abd Al-Hamid Dabbou, an Islamic scholar in the Gaza Strip, pronounced that jihad is the “pinnacle of Islam” and makes Islam “glamorous, strong and lovable.”

According to a report by the Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI), on an April 10 show on Al-Quds Al-Youm TV (Palestinan Islamic Jihad), Dabbous said that jihad is how Muslims defend their lands and spread Islam to the entire world.

He explained that Muslims don’t want to terrorize people but convert them to Islam. He said that if non-Muslims do not accept Islam and refuse to pay the jizya poll tax “in humiliation,” then they will fight them until they attain martyrdom or victory.

“Through jihad, Allah conquers lands as well as hearts and minds,” stated Dabbous. “Jihad is the means by which the Muslims, first of all, defend their lands, their lives, their honor and their religion. It is a means to spread this religion because the bottom line is that Allah sent down this religion so it would spread throughout the world until all the people become Muslims.”

The show featured footage of fighters from the Palestinian Islamic Jihad’s Al-Quds Brigades in military exercises, praying and launching rockets, as well as footage from Israeli infantry training and an Israeli military funeral.


MEMRI: Lebanese Journalist Decries Poster Of Qassem Soleimani Displayed At Beirut International Book Fair: It Represents The Culture Of Death Iran Is Trying To Spread Among Us
A furor was sparked in Lebanon recently after one of the publishers at the 63rd International Book Fair in Beirut, which opened on March 3, 2022, put up a booth devoted to Iranian General Qassem Soleimani, commander of the Qods Force of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), who was assassinated by the U.S. in January 2020.[1] Erected by the Dar Mawadda publisher, which is close to Hizbullah, the booth featured a life-sized poster of Soleimani, as well as smaller posters and figurines of him and of Iranian ayatollahs Khomeini and Khamenei. This display angered many Lebanese, especially on social media, who saw it as an Iranian takeover of Lebanese culture and said that the fair had become "an Iranian book fair in Beirut" or "the fair of the Iranian occupation."[2] Lebanese activists even tried to dismantle the booth, and one of them tried to tear down the poster, crying "Beirut is free, Iran out!" In response, other visitors attacked the activists and beat them up.[3] Attempts by elements close to Hizbullah and Iran to ban music performances at the fair evoked protest as well.[4]

The display at the fair also drew criticism from Lebanese politicians opposed to Iran. Former minister Ashraf Rifi tweeted that the poster of Soleimani was "a provocation to the Lebanese, who have been burned by the flames of Iranian occupation."[5] Khodr Ghadban, a senior member of Walid Jumblatt's Progressive Socialist Party, tweeted: "The poster of Soleimani at the Beirut International Book Fair – excuse me, the Iranian Fair for Persian Books in Beirut – is an Iranian cultural invasion of Beirut."[6]


Criticism was also expressed in Lebanese press articles. Among them was an article by Lebanese media figure 'Omar Al-Farouk Nakhal, who slammed Iran's attempts to "culturally occupy" Lebanon as a follow-up to its political occupation of this country. Iran, he wrote, is trying to spread its ideology in Lebanon, which is a "culture of death," while acting to abolish all other forms of culture, such as literature, poetry and art. This cultural war, he added, is even worse than Iran's military wars of bloodshed and killing, and the Lebanese activists were therefore right to oppose it and cry out "Beirut is free, Iran out!"

It should be noted that this is not the first time criticism is voiced in Lebanon over the commemoration and veneration of Soleimani in the country.[7]

Iran quashes Lebanon by means of its takeover of the Beirut International Book Fair (Source: Facebook.com/MajdolineBlog, March 5, 2022.

The following are translated excerpts from Nakhal's article:[8]
"It would be an injustice to sum up the poor quality of Iran's cultural scene by [referring only] to the incident at the Beirut International Book Fair, [an incident] in which activists were beaten and injured for daring to oppose the display of a poster of Qassem Soleimani at one of the Iranian booths while crying out 'Beirut is free!'. The problem is much deeper than that.

"Iran's choices are poor even when it comes to timing its cultural attacks that offend the Arab and Lebanese national sentiments. The book fair [in Beirut] has for years been providing a cultural platform for revitilizing and cultivating these sentiments through conferences, forums and dialogues that form bridges between different cultural and even political viewpoints. [But] this was before the Iranian mullahs arrived [in Lebanon] with their hammers to quash this atmosphere, while interfering in the content and messages of the fair and preventing it from holding art and music activities, which are part and parcel of any complete cultural plaform…

"The expressions of Lebanese anger and opposition to this Iranian conduct clearly reflect the war [that is currently going on] between the culture of life and the culture of death and needless killing. [This culture of death] was encapsulated in the poster of the army general [Soleimani], who belongs to the circle of bloodshed and terror and of drowning our modern culture in the ashes of devastated capitals and the blood of endless massacres.


A Revived Iran Deal Is Bad News for Democracy
Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine is a salutary reminder of the lack of restraints facing authoritarian regimes when they decide to go to war, as well as the inability of the democratic nations confronting these same regimes to prevent mass atrocities. While the Ukrainian armed forces have chalked up some important victories around Kyiv and Chernihiv in the center and north of the country, the Kremlin’s assault continues unabated in the south and east, triggering new waves of refugees with fresh stories of Russian war crimes and crimes against humanity.

Within this deadly dynamic, Western countries have, against the expectations of many observers, found a strong voice and a clear position. For Germany and Sweden, the Russian invasion has put paid to pacifistic, non-military foreign policies for the time being. Within the European Union, tough sanctions against Russia have been accompanied by an impressive resolve among the bloc’s leading executives to choke the Russian economy to its fullest extent. Meanwhile, the United States, in sharp decline as a global power for more than a decade, has found itself defending values like freedom and tolerance against Russian censorship and nationalist chauvinism.

These last developments are welcome, though it is sobering to note that it always takes a crisis or a conflict for Western nations to recognize that their systems of government are worth defending. Arguably more so now than at any other time since the 9/11 atrocities and their aftermath, the citizens of liberal democratic countries have been made acutely aware of how perilous life would be under a dictator like Vladimir Putin.

Yet the Western response to Putin’s invasion of Ukraine doesn’t quite amount to a foreign-policy reset. Particularly in Washington, DC, a profound fear remains of falling into “a mindset characterized by a preference for military action over diplomacy; a mindset that put a premium on unilateral US action over the painstaking work of building international consensus; a mindset that exaggerated threats beyond what the intelligence supported,” as former President Barack Obama put it when assessing his predecessor’s foreign policy during his announcement of the Iran nuclear deal in August 2015.
Russia’s war in Ukraine exposes Iran’s political fault lines
However, in its imperial past, Russia fought multiple wars against Persia, which ceded territory to the czar. Russia invaded Iran alongside Britain in World War II to secure oil and trade routes in their war against Germany. After the war, Russia refused to leave, sparking the first global crisis of the newly formed United Nations.

That memory hasn’t faded. Russia’s brief use of an Iranian airbase amid the war in Syria, in which both backed embattled Syrian President Bashar Assad, similarly sparked widespread anger.

Now, Iran may be feeling like a poker chip in a wider game rather than a player at the geopolitical table. A sudden demand by Russia for sanctions-relief guarantees threw negotiations in Vienna over Iran’s tattered nuclear deal into disarray. Russia’s demand seems to have eased, while now it appears American sanctions on the Guard remain the last hurdle.

Iranians have noticed Russia’s gambit.

“The point that Putin made a strategic mistake and sent forces to Ukraine and is now drowning in a Ukrainian quagmire cannot be a [logical] reason for Russia to take the deal as hostage,” the conservative daily newspaper Jomhouri Eslami said in a March editorial.

Taxi driver Abbas Najafi suggested Iran stay out of it all together.

“It is not our war. It is not our problem,” he said. “We are under the US sanctions now and we should not look for more headaches.”




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