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Monday, February 01, 2021

02/01 Links Pt1: Kushner, Berkowitz, Friedman nominated for Nobel Peace Prize for Israel deals; Muslim-majority Kosovo forges ties with Israel - will open embassy in Jerusalem; The Apartheid state of Lebanon.

From Ian:

Kushner, Berkowitz, Friedman nominated for Nobel Peace Prize for Israel deals
Former White House senior adviser Jared Kushner and his deputy, Avi Berkowitz, as well as former US Ambassador to Israel David Friedman and former Israeli Ambassador to the US Ron Dermer were nominated on Sunday for the Nobel Peace Prize for their role in negotiating four normalization deals between Israel and Arab nations known as the "Abraham Accords."

Nominating the pair of former deputies to then-President Donald Trump was American attorney Alan Dershowitz, who was eligible to do so in his capacity as a professor emeritus of Harvard Law School.

In his nomination letter, Dershowitz wrote that he strongly believes that the singular event that warrants the Nobel Peace Prize for this past year is the Abraham Accords.

"These Accords, which have brought about normalization between Israel and several Sunni Arab nations, fulfill all the criteria for the prize. They hold the promise of an even broader peace in the Middle East between Israel, the Palestinians and other Arab nations. They are a giant step forward in bringing peace and stability to the region, and even to the world," he continued.

Dershowitz added that he wanted to "emphasize the enormous contributions to peace made by Jared Kushner, Avrahm Berkowitz, David Friedman and Ron Dermer," insisting that "these men played especially important roles."

"Kushner and Berkowitz traveled all over the region, meeting with leaders and their associates, advocating for peace and nailing down all the details."


Muslim-majority Kosovo forges ties with Israel; will open embassy in Jerusalem
Israel and Kosovo formally established diplomatic ties on Monday, with the Muslim-majority territory also recognizing Jerusalem as the Jewish state’s capital — putting it at odds with the rest of the Islamic world.

In a ceremony held over Zoom in Jerusalem and Pristina, Foreign Minister Gabi Ashkenazi and his counterpart from Kosovo, Meliza Haradinaj Stublla, signed a joint declaration establishing ties.

Travel restrictions to curb the spread of COVID-19, including the closure of Ben Gurion Airport, made an in-person ceremony impossible. It was the first time Israel established relations with a country virtually.

Ashkenazi said he had approved Kosovo’s “formal request to open an embassy in Jerusalem.”

“The establishment of relations between Israel and Kosovo is an important and moving historical step that reflects the many changes the region has experienced in recent months,” Ashkenazi said.

“Today, Kosovo officially joins the circle of countries that aspire to peace and stability and recognize Israel, and Jerusalem as its capital.”

The foreign ministers signed two cooperation agreements — one to establish their diplomatic relations and the other relating to the activities of Israel’s international development agency Mashav. They will send each other copies via email, each to be signed by their counterpart, according to the Foreign Ministry.

The ceremony was broadcast live on the Foreign Ministry’s Facebook page.

US State Department spokesman Ned Price praised the sides for the “historic day.”

“When our partners are united, the United States is stronger. Deeper international ties help further peace and stability in the Balkans and Middle East,” he said.




Seth Frantzman: Explained: Inside Israel’s Plans to Fight the Next Major War
The concept Israel is pushing is called “multi-dimensional” combat. Combining more abilities to units. This means that soldiers will have more technology and fire support at their fingertips. Units, by combining more abilities, will look more like the US Marine Corps, which has its own air assets and ships.

Multi-dimensional units and concepts of command will be applied to make Israel’s army also seek a more decisive win over opponents, and do it quickly, taking into account the time factor mentioned above. One issue that commanders in the IDF know are that while Israel performed well in the 1967 Six-Day-Day, it also lost hundreds of soldiers in battle. These high casualties would not be considered acceptable today to civilians watching the war at home. Enemies also understand this.

Overcoming enemies that use terror or seek to strike at vulnerable points, like tunneling into civilian areas, means Israel needs to have better ways to expose the enemy. This could mean better drones or artificial intelligence applied to persistent wide-area surveillance and automatic target recognition, the technologies that Israel’s defense experts are working on. Soldiers are also trained to make use of this technology. That means that an infantry soldier doesn’t merely carry several magazines in his tactical vest, but will also have access to more airborne assets and with the click of a finger have more knowledge about the enemy in front of him.

War Within a War
The war within a war, the one that means combining the knowledge that there are limited time and a need to be more precise and lethal while reducing casualties, means finding and pinpointing enemies faster. This asymmetric war is not new to western militaries. The US soldiers in Vietnam had access to massive firepower. But Israel can’t use the kind of tactics the US used in Vietnam, it must use precision munitions and deal with a kind of asymmetric challenge that is kind of doubled on the battlefield.

Implementing the kinds of technological applications Israel wants to put on the battlefield will take many forms, the IDF officials say. That means more drones and artificial intelligence. More technology is in the hand of the common soldier as well, not just officers. Enemies also have better technology, like their own drones and smartphones, so Israel must confront this.

While some of the terminologies Israel uses are general and conceptual, the outcome is a new method of preparing soldiers to be able to take advantage of new technologies as they arrive. Militaries have sometimes been slow to introduce new drones or use tablet computers or lasers because procurement is slow. In addition, army radios need to be robust, rugged, and encrypted. That means radios often appeared to lag behind civilian technology. Israel indicates that its doctrine has leaped in the last several years. This creates a kind of open architecture, the kind Israel’s defense companies also like to build with, that will allow new technology to plug into ground forces units. Israel believes this will fundamentally change the individual soldier and how they go into battle in the coming years.
MEMRI: Arab League Head Ahmed Abu Al-Gheit: Any Resolution Of The 'Iranian file' Must Consider Arab Concerns, Unlike The Obama Administration's Nuclear Deal
In a January 26, 2021 interview with the London-based Saudi daily Al-Sharq Al-Awsat, Arab League Secretary-General Ahmed Abu Al-Gheit addresses the situation in the Middle East, and expresses his hopes regarding the future U.S. policy there, which he says must differ from America's policy in the past.

Noting that the gravest problem facing the region is the ongoing internal conflicts in Yemen, Syria, Libya and Lebanon, which are causing extreme human suffering, Abu Al-Gheit states that a common factor discernable in all these conflicts is "the malicious regional interference" of Iran and Turkey, which, in some cases, involves actual armed intervention in these countries. All these conflict, he says, will benefit from U.S. diplomacy to neutralize the Iranian and Turkish influence and push for peaceful political solutions.

Abu Al-Gheit stresses Iran and its nuclear file represent a major challenge to US foreign policy, but that any response to this challenge must be different from the approach advanced by the Obama administration. Specifically, it must involve the Arabs and address their fears and concerns, thereby ensuring the long-term viability of any agreement or deal with Iran.

Abu Al-Gheit notes further that many Arab leaders are making intensive efforts to modernize and reform their countries while facing dangerous forces of extremism and violence that threaten their security and social fabric. In this struggle, he adds, the U.S. must surely take the side of those who advocate modernity, rationality and the values of citizenship, rather than the side of their rivals. He warns, however, that intense Western pressure to accelerate the pace of change has in the past led to catastrophes in the Arab world, and expresses confidence that the Biden administration will be able to take a prudent path that avoids this.

Addressing the Palestinian issue, the Arab League secretary-general expresses hope that the U.S. will be able to restore its role as a neutral mediator and revive the two-state solution, and stresses that, while the recent peace agreements between Israel and some Arab states can help accelerate the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, they cannot be regarded as a substitute for this process.
Israeli Ambassador Expresses Heartfelt Thanks to ‘Our Friends in India’ Following Embassy Bombing
Israel’s ambassador to India expressed heartfelt thanks to “our friends in India” for their support following Friday’s terror attack on the Israeli embassy in New Delhi.

The explosion outside the embassy was caused by a bomb concealed in a flowerpot. It injured no one, but local media reported that an organization called Jaish-Ul-Hind had claimed responsibility, and separately cited a possible link to Iran in a message pledging further attacks.

The letter, found at the scene of the explosion, mentioned two “Iranian martyrs,” an apparent reference to the terror mastermind Qassem Soleimani and top nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh.

The former Revolutionary Guard leader Soleimani was assassinated in January, 2020 in a US drone strike, and Fakhrizadeh was killed in November in a shooting widely attributed to the Mossad.

On Sunday, the Israeli Ambassador to India and Sri Lanka, Dr. Ron Malka, tweeted, “We are grateful for the heartwarming support we’ve received from our friends in India, Israel, and across the world regarding Friday’s terrorist attack, while celebrating the 29th anniversary of diplomatic relations between Israel and India.”

“Our genuine friendship will continue to thrive!” he said.
‘Count the days’: Death threat against Israeli envoy left at site of India blast
A letter found close to the scene of a blast outside the Israeli embassy in New Delhi last week was a death threat to the ambassador that warned he was being constantly being watched and could be attacked at any time, Channel 13 news reported Sunday.

The handwritten note, in English, but riddled with grammatical and spelling errors, was addressed to Israel’s ambassador, Ron Malka, and referred to him as a “terrorist of the terrorist nation.”

It claimed to be from the “India Hizbollah,” a group that is not previously known, according to the report, which included a photo of the letter. Lebanese Hezbollah is an Iran-backed terror organization that is sworn to Israel’s destruction.

“This is just a trailer presented to you, that how we can observe you,” even when “eating your pie,” the letter began.

Warning that Malka is in their crosshairs, the letter said “you cannot stop anyway no matter how hard you would pick, we can end your life anytime anywhere.”

It said that while the attackers want to destroy Malka “we don’t want [to] flow the blood of innocent people around you.”

Declaring that all “participants and partners” of Israeli “terrorist ideology will be no more in existence” the letter warned: “now get ready for a big and better revenge for our heroes.”
Israel’s Growing Importance to NATO
The NATO 2030: United for a New Era report envisages a holistic understanding of security for both the East and the South to address “the growing presence of Russia, and to a lesser extent China” in parallel with traditional threats and new risks. In so doing, it advises the careful management of differences among allies and a better definition of the relationship between multiple frameworks and activities. It considers collaboration with NATO partners crucial.

In that regard, the role of Israel is highly significant. Cooperation ranges from cyber defense, efforts to counter the proliferation of missiles and weapons of mass destruction, and intelligence related to the fight against terrorism.

A few weeks ago, Commander of NATO Maritime Command Vice Admiral Keith Blount said, “Israel has been an important partner to NATO for more than 20 years as well as an active member of [the] Mediterranean Dialogue.” He made the remarks after the completion of a training exercise in the Eastern Mediterranean between Israel and a Greek-led task group for the current NATO operation Sea Guardian. The Greek frigate Spetsai and the Bulgarian Smeli linked up with Israeli maritime units Lahav and Romah to go through challenging medical evacuation and search and rescue scenarios. As part of the scenario, air units transported personnel simulating injury to a local Israeli hospital.

Above all, the new political dynamics in the Middle East and the Eastern Mediterranean will have to be carefully assessed by NATO if it is to promote a stable South in the coming years. The normalization of ties between Israel and the UAE and Bahrain creates new possibilities for the alliance’s engagement with the Gulf Cooperation Council. This is also true of NATO’s coordination with the African Union following the recognition of Israel by Sudan and Morocco. The Abraham Accords have the potential to usher in a new period that goes beyond benefits for the signatories themselves to the future interaction between NATO and regional organizations.
Watch: Israel Successfully Completes Tests on Advanced Version of Iron Dome
The Israel Missile Defense Organization (IMDO), in the Directorate for Defense R&D of the Israel Ministry of Defense, and Rafael Advanced Defense Systems completed a successful series of flight tests of the Iron Dome weapon system. The Israeli Air Force (IAF) and Navy also participated in the test, which was conducted in a base in central Israel.

The test was an important milestone for the new, advanced version of the missile defense system.

The test campaign was held in a number of scenarios simulating advanced threats with which the Iron Dome is expected to contend during times of conflict – whether on land or in the sea.

The new and upgraded version of the Iron Dome is expected to be delivered to the IAF for operational use. It will also be integrated and installed on the Navy’s Sa’ar 6 corvettes and will be central to the defense of Israel’s economic waters (EEZ).


Seth Frantzman: U.S. Army Gets a Look at Israel’s SPIKE SR Anti-tank Missile
The U.S. Army is looking for new technologies and increasing lethality for the future battlefield. As it is assessing advanced technologies it got a look at Israel’s Spike SR, a short-range anti-tank missile from Rafael Advanced Defense Systems. “As a portable, electro-optical guided missile, designed for today's modern infantry, Spike SR is especially well-suited to enhance soldier lethality, one of the six priorities,” Rafael said. This assessment was the first live-fire demonstration of SPIKE SR on U.S. soil.

The live-fire demonstration is part of the US Army Expeditionary Warrior Experiment 2021. The AEWE looks at “cross domain maneuver” capabilities in support of “multi-domain operations,” according to a U.S. Army explanation. That means expanding lethal and nonlethal capabilities for small unit modernization. The live-fire demonstration shows the missile striking vehicles and blowing them up accurately. “We were greatly honored to present the advanced SPIKE SR missile system for assessment by the AEWE team. This light-weight system can greatly enhance squad-level soldier lethality, a core capability of the Army,” said Joe Anderson, President and CEO of Rafael Systems Global Sustainment.

Rafael is one of Israel’s three major defense companies and the traditional research and development pioneer for Israeli military technology. It has supplied two Iron Dome air defense batteries to the U.S. Army in the last year and also supplies the Trophy defense systems for U.S. Abrams tanks. Rafael’s missiles and new technologies increasingly incorporate artificial intelligence and better target recognition. Rafael sells Spike in Europe and is building Iron Dome with Raytheon in the United States. As such this new demonstration is another important development for the Israeli defense relationship with the U.S. military and for Rafael in particular.
Netanyahu appeals to European leaders not to outlaw kosher slaughter
European leaders must speak out about protections for religious minorities after the European Union Court of Justice (EUJC) decision to uphold a ban on ritual slaughter, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wrote in a letter to European leaders this week.

“I… would be very grateful if you announce that the freedom of religion of minorities will continue to be secure, and that religious slaughter will continue to be permitted,” Netanyahu wrote. “As a pivotal leader, your voice will send a powerful message throughout Europe.”

Netanyahu sent the letter to the leaders of France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Hungary, Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Finland, as well as to the presidents of the European Commission and the European Council.

The message came about six weeks after the European Union Court of Justice upheld a ban on kosher and halal slaughter in Belgium. The court dismissed arguments by Jewish and Muslim groups that Belgium is infringing on their religious freedom by requiring them to stun animals in the process of slaughtering them for meat, which would be contrary to their religious precepts. The ruling set a precedent that could lead to more EU member states passing laws against shechita, Jewish ritual slaughter.

Netanyahu wrote that the “decision threatens the religious freedom of Jews throughout Europe.”

“The leaders and institutions of European Jewry have expressed their shock at this decision and its harmful effect on the viability of Jewish life in the EU,” the prime minister wrote. “As the Government of Israel, we stand for religious freedom for all. Jews around the world should be able to live full Jewish lives wherever they choose to reside.”
Netanyahu to meet with UAE Crown Prince in Abu Dhabi next week
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to visit the United Arab Emirates next week for the first time since the Abraham Accords were announced last August.

He plans to meet with the country’s ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, in Abu Dhabi, which is one of the Emirates and the capital of the UAE.

Iran is expected to be at the top of their agenda.

US President Joe Biden has indicated his desire for the US to rejoin the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or Iran deal, and to bring Tehran back to compliance.

Both Israel and the UAE view Iran as a major threat. Netanyahu’s public stance against the Iran deal in 2015 helped bring the countries closer, eventually leading to the Abraham Accords of peace and normalization.
Lithuania MP who blamed Jews for Holocaust quits parliament memorial commission
A Lithuanian lawmaker who had suggested that Jews share the blame for the Holocaust resigned as chair of the parliament’s historical memory commission.

Valdas Rakutis faced criticism over his comments, made during a speech in parliament on International Holocaust Remembrance Day, including a rare rebuke from the US ambassador.

Rakutis cited his desire to “reduce tensions between home and abroad” when he announced his resignation on Saturday. He also said he had not meant to place blame on Jewish victims of the Nazi genocide.

“There was no shortage of Holocaust perpetrators among the Jews themselves, especially in the ghetto self-government structures,” Rakutis had said in the speech. “We need to name these people out loud and try not to have people like them again.”

Efraim Zuroff, the Eastern Europe director at the Simon Wiesenthal Center, which also protested Valdas’ remarks, said he was not convinced that Rakutis’ decision to step down from the committee’s leadership reflected regret.
This Is How Israel Loses Its Sovereignty in Judea & Samaria
Last Sunday, I received a call that there was unknown construction in one of the streams near my home in Nokdim, Gush Etzion.

I immediately dropped what I was doing to go see for myself, and a few minutes later I arrived at the spot where I saw Palestinian Authority trucks and tractors hard at work.

The stream, which is located in the Israeli-controlled Area C portion of Judea & Samaria, is also located near the Arab town of Za’atara, which is under the rule of the Palestinian Authority (PA).

It is no secret that the PA aims to occupy and seize control over as much land as possible in Judea and Samaria – including state land in Area C – by illegally planting trees, building homes, and constructing roads.

In 2017, the PA began extensive work in the riverbed. Thousands of trucks poured huge quantities of dirt and construction waste from surrounding illegal buildings into the riverbed, turning it into yet another road established by the PA in recent years.

The PA established an alternative road system that it uses to smuggle weapons, drugs, and even women away from the eyes of Israel’s security forces.

But the problem is that Israel’s security forces do see how the Palestinian Authority (aided by the European Union) is stealing land and suffocating Israeli communities, but nonetheless is not taking concrete action against it.
The tragedy of Arab land theft in Judea and Samaria
Tom Nisani's recent Arutz Sheva article "This is how Israel loses its sovereignty in Judea and Samaria" shines an uncomfortable light on the problems of Moslem land theft and occupation of Jewish property, Jewish heritage destruction, and environmental depredation through garbage dumping, farm destruction and arson. These aggressions happen openly but rarely get reported.

Ancient Greeks defined tragedy as an event causing great suffering, destruction and distress to a person or nation. The key element in tragedy is that it is caused by people (as opposed to nature) not doing what they are supposed to do. Tragedies happen when people fail to do the right thing.

The Israeli government is failing to prevent this tragedy. What Israel's enemies never did on the battlefield, they now do through NGO's (Non Governmental Orginizations), corrupt judges, cowardly politicians, and the mainstream media that willfully ignores the problem.

All is not lost. There is an orginazation dedicated to countering this anti-Zionist and anti-Jewish mob. Im Tirtzu is a non-profit organization working to strengthen the values of Zionism in Israel as a Jewish and democratic state. Their mission concerning Zionism is to advance the good and to confront the bad.

Im Tirtzu has earned a reputation for its fearless calling out of anti-Zionist Israeli NGOs funded by foreign governments and the New Israel Fund, who have been seeking to harm IDF soldiers and influence the policies and positions of the Israeli government through the back door.
Shtayyeh: Palestinians will soon receive 50,000 coronavirus vaccines
The Palestinians will receive 50,000 doses of vaccines against the coronavirus from several sources, including COVAX, one of the pillars of the Access to COVID-19 Tools Accelerator, launched last year by the World Health Organization, the European Commission and France, Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh announced on Monday.

Shtayyeh, who was speaking at the beginning of the weekly meeting of the PA cabinet in Ramallah, said that the vaccination of Palestinians will start in mid-February.

The PA government will provide the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip with vaccines, he said.

He said that he expected the first shipment of vaccines that the PA government purchased would arrive at the end of February.

Shtayyeh’s announcement came as Israel began on Monday transferring vaccines to the Palestinians through the Betunia Crossing near Ramallah. The first shipment of 2,000 vaccines is intended for medical teams. The rest of the expected total of 5,000 vaccines will reportedly be transferred to the Palestinians in three more shipments.


The Apartheid state of Lebanon.
The Lebanon Budget Draft for 2021 grants permanent residency in Lebanon for any foreigner that invests in real estate. As long as the investor keeps property in their name permanent residency will be granted to the investor and their family.

Syrian and Palestinian nationals are excluded.

Over 470,000 Palestinian refugees are registered with UNRWA in Lebanon, with 45 per cent of them living in the country’s 12 refugee camps. Palestinians in Lebanon cannot work in at least 39 professions and cannot own property. The refugee status is passed down from generation to generation. Even third and fourth generation Lebanese born Palestinians do not have the rights of citizens.

Lebanon is an apartheid state, and the silence of the so-called Palestinian civil society and international human rights organizations is quite telling. This is one of the 3 "Ds" of Natan Sharansky's definition of antisemitism- the double standard.
JCPA: Has Lebanon Reached the Abyss?
What Options Are Open for Lebanon and the Lebanese?

Lebanon expects a miracle, which is not going to take place. As a result, there are three potential options:
1. Drifting into a civil war. The different militias are preparing themselves for such a situation. This could be the extension of the previous civil war, which came to an end in 1990 and redistributed power between the different sectarian parties. Such a war could create a situation in which foreign powers will come to the rescue of their clients. Lebanon will be the theater where the conflict between Saudi Arabia, Iran, Russia, Israel, the United States, and other parties will be waged. The end of this scenario is not foreseeable.

2. Cantonization: with Lebanon torn apart in a civil war, it is likely that the central government will fail to impose an end to the hostilities. As a result, the territorial partition of Lebanon will surface again with Mount Lebanon being the Christian canton, the western part of Beirut, which includes the Hizbullah Dahiya neighborhood, South Lebanon, and the Bekaa Valley until the northern border with Syria would be a Shiite-dominated canton, and the Chouf (south of Mount Lebanon) would be a Druze stronghold, and the Sunnis will have parts of Beirut, Sidon, and Tripoli – the capital of the north. This partition, which reflects the present situation in Lebanon, does not mean that the central government will disappear. It will survive without any prerogatives or influence. It will remain as a symbol and will refrain from engaging troops on behalf of one or the other parties. The fear of Lebanon’s government disappearing could ignite a confrontation between the different communities over Lebanon’s political identity.

3. Open conflict over Lebanon’s identity: In such an eventuality, one could easily envision an attempt by Hizbullah to take over Beirut and impose itself on the Lebanese by means of its military power. The Lebanese army does not stand a chance in a confrontation with Hizbullah as it is itself split along sectarian military formations. In such an event, one can imagine that the Iranian patrons would bless such a venture and rush to consolidate Hizbullah’s grip on Lebanon. Such a scenario is deeply conditioned only by Israel’s reaction since at present, there is no Syrian army that can intervene as it did in 1976 when rescue was requested by then-Maronite President Suleiman Franjieh.

Lebanon is in transition. The Lebanese body politic is already looking at the next presidential and legislative elections due in 2022. Will Lebanon’s changing identity be decided by then?
Israel Says Drone Falls in Lebanese Territory, Hezbollah Says It Brought It Down
Lebanon’s Hezbollah said on Monday it brought down an Israeli drone that had entered Lebanese airspace, while the Israeli military said one of its drones had fallen inside Lebanon.

Hezbollah said in a statement carried by al-Manar television that it was now in control of the drone.

The Israeli military said the drone had fallen in Lebanese territory during an operation near the border demarcation known as the Blue Line and that there was, “no breach of information.”
Mordechai Kedar: Is Israel in Secret Contact with Syria?
Reports have appeared about secret contacts between Israel and Syria. On Dec. 23, 2020, Israeli journalist Majdi Halabi published an interview on the Arabic website Elaph with an officer of the IDF General Staff. The officer said: "Assad brought the Iranians into Syria so they would solve the problem of ISIS and the civil war, but once ISIS was defeated...Iran, which was a big plus for Syria, turned into a burden for both Syria and Russia."

The Syrians "need money to pay the Iranians to get out of Syria, and they want to solidify their regime. Assad sees the reality, and he wants to forge ties with the Sunni axis so that he can pay his debts to Iran and get them out of Syria. He sees that Israel can help him with the U.S. on the one hand and with the Gulf axis and the Sunni axis on the other. The Russians, too, see us as a bridge to the U.S., to the Gulf, and to the Sunni axis."

"Assad...is now prepared to talk with us so as to shore up his rule, defray the financial debt to Iran, and create a situation of non-belligerency with Israel....The important thing is that there's a possibility of breaking up the radical axis, the Iranian axis."


Iran Could Be Weeks Away From Enriching Enough Uranium for Bomb, Blinken Warns
Iran being able to enrich enough uranium to produce a nuclear bomb could be a “matter of weeks,” US State Secretary Antony Blinken told NBC in an interview published Monday.

The estimate was for the scenario where Tehran continues rolling back its commitments under the 2015 nuclear deal — something it has gradually been doing since the US pullout in 2018.

Otherwise, Iran could still develop the capacity to enrich enough uranium for a warhead within months, Blinken said.

The diplomat stressed that Washington was willing to return to the agreement if Iran was to reverse its breaches.

He also urged Iran to work with the United States and other nations on an accord that would last longer and encompass more issues and points of contention.

When pressured on the fates of Americans being held prisoner by Tehran, Blinken did not bind them to the reinstatement of the US compliance to the accord, instead saying the prisoners must be freed “irrespective” of any agreements.
Iran Rejects New Participants, Any Talks on Nuclear Deal
Iran’s foreign ministry on Saturday rejected any new negotiations or changes to the participants of Tehran’s nuclear deal with world powers after French President Emmanuel Macron said any new talks should include Saudi Arabia.

“The nuclear accord is a multilateral international agreement ratified by UN Security Council Resolution 2231, which is non-negotiable and parties to it are clear and unchangeable,” Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh was quoted by state media as saying.
U.S. Rejoining the Iran Nuclear Deal Will Make the Middle East Less Stable
President Biden undertook to rejoin the Iran nuclear deal as is, with no preliminary negotiations on extending and strengthening it or on other issues of concern. It means the U.S. will lift Trump's sanctions in return for a rollback of Iran's violations. Critics believe that a new and improved nuclear deal is required, that will extend its duration, impose limitations on Iran's missile programs, and require Iran to moderate its regional policies.

In the June 2021 presidential elections in Iran, all five contenders belong to the Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). It is not unlikely that an Iranian president who hails from the IRGC will flatly refuse to promise or even hint at any further negotiations once the U.S. has lifted sanctions.

Ever since the September 2019 devastating attack by Iranian UAVs on Saudi Arabia's oil installations, the awareness has grown among many observers that Iran's threat is not limited to its nuclear ambitions. Therefore, what is needed are limits on Iran's conventional capabilities too, including its entire spectrum of destabilizing weapon programs like ballistic missiles and UAVs.

A U.S. return to the Obama nuclear deal, with no substantial correction of its weaknesses, will justifiably be regarded by the Ayatollahs as a historic victory. Iranian prestige and standing in the region will be enhanced immensely, and Iranian coffers will overflow with income from oil exports and renewal of international trade. Iran will be stronger and more dangerous, posing a growing existential threat to Israel and other Middle Eastern countries - even if its nuclear program is delayed for a while.
Amb. Dore Gold: Why Israel is Right to Doubt that New Negotiations with Iran Will Work
In August 2002, the Iranian opposition disclosed previously unknown Iranian nuclear facilities. The U.S. at the time was busy with the weapons of mass destruction programs of Saddam Hussein in Iraq, so it left the Europeans to do the heavy lifting on Iran. The EU-3 powers (Britain, France, and Germany) struck deals with Iran in 2003-4 that would allow Iran to build more centrifuges.

The father of the Iranian diplomatic approach was Hassan Rouhani, today the president of Iran, who served as national security adviser and later as head nuclear negotiator with the EU-3. Rouhani said in 2003: "When we were negotiating with the Europeans in Tehran, we were installing equipment in parts of the facility in Isfahan." The negotiating process, in short, allowed Iran to steadily advance with its nuclear program.

The Islamic term used by the Iranians for what they were doing was Taqiya, a theological idea used by Shiite Muslims to engage in deception for self-preservation. It became a diplomatic instrument that the Iranians employed in their arms control talks with the West.

Currently, there is no evidence that Iran has really changed, nor is Iran about to alter its behavior. In the meantime, it continues to be a dangerous power with both an advanced nuclear program and expansionist policies across the Middle East.
Report Reveals Iran’s Years-Long Effort to Infiltrate Israel, Recruit Spies and Sow Terror
Iran has been engaged in a years-long effort to infiltrate Israel, set up terror cells within its borders and in the Palestinian territories, and carry out terror atrocities against Israeli civilians and infrastructure, Israeli news site Walla reported on Sunday.

The effort, the report states, began with the 1997 appointment of Qassem Soleimani as head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps’ Quds Force. Soleimani developed a strategy of infiltration, terrorism, subversion, and imperialism that reached the Middle East and beyond — including ambitions to infiltrate Syria, take over Lebanon, and install terror cells as far away as Europe and Africa.

Soleimani, who was killed last January in a US drone strike in Iraq, was actively attempting to infiltrate Israel as early as 2012, when three West Bank Palestinians were arrested by Israel’s Shin Bet and admitted under interrogation that they were Iranian agents.

The men were recruited via Hamas, and had secretly visited Iran via foreign countries to receive extensive military and terrorism training. The interrogation revealed that other Palestinians, mainly Hamas operatives, were also being trained there. While there, the recruits had been visited by, among others, top Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal.

These activities appear to be connected to the IRGC’s Unit 400, which was established by Soleimani in 2011 and is composed of terror cells that reach as far as Gambia and Belgium.
How Biden Could Truly ‘Fix’ the Iran Nuclear Deal
According to press reports, Iranian officials have given the Biden administration seven preconditions to meet before Tehran will join new talks on resuming compliance with the provisions of the deeply flawed 2015 nuclear deal known as the JCPOA.

These preconditions appear to be a ploy to bully Biden administration officials, who are desperate to rejoin the JCPOA, into entering an agreement that is even worse. Biden’s team should refuse to play along. Instead of being cowed into submission, it should announce its own preconditions for reaching a nuclear deal that fully addresses the JCPOA’s failings and the whole range of threats posed by Iran while also providing a way for the Islamic Republic to enter the community of nations.

Biden officials claim the president wants to return the U.S. to the JCPOA, which President Trump exited, once Iran comes into compliance with its terms. After that happens, he hopes to begin talks on a better and broader agreement. There are three problems with this position.

First, Iran has never been in compliance with the JCPOA. Israel proved massive Iranian violations of the agreement in 2018, when it revealed documents stolen from Iran’s “nuclear archive.”

Second, even if Iran had been complying with the JCPOA, the deal would still be fatally flawed, since it allowed Iran to continue nuclear-weapons-related work — including uranium enrichment — for as long as it remained in effect. We know from plentiful past experience that Iran will often use holes in such agreements to advance parts of its nuclear-weapons-program that they don’t cover, such as warhead-design work. And we know from both previous IAEA reports and the Israeli-retrieved archives that such warhead-design work has been done since the JCPOA was signed, and never fully accounted for as the deal requires.

Finally, Iranian officials have made clear that they will never agree to negotiate the kind of follow-up, improved nuclear agreement Biden seeks.
Is peace between Iran and Israel inevitable?
The recent momentum toward peace in the Middle East has been breathtaking. Multiple US-brokered deals between Israel, UAE, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco, known as the Abraham Accords, are creating a new reality in one of the world’s most combustible neighborhoods that, with US leadership, promises a more prosperous and secure future for Arabs and Jews alike.

An impetus behind this historic normalization of relations between the Jewish state and its Muslim neighbors is practical. They face a common threat from the Islamic Republic of Iran, which has been labeled by the State Department as the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism for nearly four decades.

Driven by a revolutionary theology, the Islamic Republic’s regime has been metastasizing across the region since its founding in 1979. From funding and arming anti-Israel terrorists, to blowing up Saudi oil facilities, to pirating commercial vessels in the Persian Gulf, Iran is the Middle East’s preeminent menace. Not only is it out of step with the Abraham Accords, Iran is the neighborhood’s chief purveyor of discord.

The regime in Tehran, however, does not represent the Iranian people. A glaring example of this chasm was on display after a US drone strike killed Iran’s top terrorist, Qasem Soleimani. Despite the mullahs’ efforts to turn this murderer into a martyr, Iranians ripped down the propaganda posters glorifying him. They also rejected the regime’s attempts to stir up hate against the United States and Israel. Videos from Iran showed average citizens going out of their way to avoid stepping on the US and Israeli flags printed on the ground outside of shopping malls, schools, and mosques – even on the day of Soleimani’s funeral.



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