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Thursday, December 03, 2020

12/03 Links Pt1: Joe Biden’s Dream of a Worse Iran Nuclear Deal; WB goods to be labeled Israeli in Bahrain; U.N. Targets Israel in 5 Resolutions, Rest of the World 0

From Ian:

Noah Rothman: Joe Biden’s Dream of a Worse Iran Nuclear Deal
In the final days of the Obama administration, it was fashionable for the deal’s defenders to dismiss its critics by contending that Iran was in full compliance with the terms of the accords. But those critics did not disagree. Their problem was always that “full compliance” was not difficult to achieve.

Iran provided inspectors access to declared nuclear sites but not military sites where illicit activities were likeliest to occur. A subsequent agreement allowed inspectors the opportunity to access suspect sites but only with at least 24-days-notice—enough to dispose of the evidence of small-scale work on components related to a bomb. But functionally, that 24-day timeline could be reset by Iran, which could stretch the delays out for weeks—ample time to deceive inspectors.

The IAEA routinely insisted that they had ample access to sites like Natanz and Fordow, though the uranium-enriching centrifuges at those sites were only mothballed and could be quickly restored (as they were last year). But inspectors were blocked from accessing sites like the Parchin military complex, where Iran allegedly conducted nuclear explosives and hydrodynamic testing before bulldozing the area and layering it with asphalt. To satisfy observers unnerved by Iran’s intrigues, Tehran was allowed to use its own inspectors to take environmental samples from around Parchin. Shocking though it may be, neither the Iranians nor the IAEA inspectors who checked their work found anything untoward.

The IAEA also insisted that it regularly conducted snap inspections of various civilian and military sites, but Western diplomats noted that nearly all of those inspections were of places like university laboratories or manufacturing plants with little sensitive intelligence value. When pressed by the former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley in 2017 to reinspect some suspicious military sites to satisfy the Trump administration’s concerns, the IAEA declined—insisting, correctly, that the terms of the deal required a specific and credible basis to request such intrusive inspections.

The deference afforded to Iran didn’t end there. In 2018, a spectacularly successful Israeli intelligence operation recovered a cache of documents related to the Iranian weapons program that clearly illustrates the extensive work the Islamic Republic had done in pursuit of a fissionable device. Those documents were hidden away, presumably to be pulled out of storage after the deal had expired and Iran’s pursuit of a nuclear weapon had been fully legitimized. But Iran was under no obligation to disclose those documents, even though it had repeatedly claimed (and former secretary of State John Kerry affirmed) that all of Iran’s past nuclear-weapons work was on the table.

The JCPOA was never designed to prevent Iran from achieving nuclear-nation status. It was only aimed at dragging that process out while reshuffling the region’s geopolitical deck in Iran’s favor and ultimately providing a patina of legitimacy to Tehran’s nuclear ambitions. Any talk about exhuming and reanimating this agreement that glosses over its weak verification regime suggests that the Biden administration, like the Obama administration, will settle for any deal—even a bad one. When Iran is on the ropes, it’s Joe Biden who is committed to negotiating from a position of weakness.


Iran's Mullahs Want the "Nuclear Deal", So Does Biden
Iran's mullahs love the nuclear deal because of its fundamental flaws, especially the sunset clauses that remove restrictions on Iran's nuclear program after the deal expires soon. The nuclear deal, rather than preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, as it was falsely touted to do, in fact paves the way for Tehran to become a legitimized nuclear state.

With the nuclear deal, the regime would gain global legitimacy, making it even more difficult to hold Iran's leaders accountable for any malign behavior or terror activity across the world.

Finally, Iran's ruling clerics want immediately to rejoin the nuclear deal because it would again alienate other governments in the Middle East and inevitably lead to a worsening of relations between the US and its traditional allies, especially Israel, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states.

This flawed deal, in favor of Iran, failed to recognize the rightful concerns of other countries in the region about Iran's potential nuclear capability, missile proliferation or funding of violent proxies -- both within and next door to their territories.
Iran’s Guardian Council Approves Law on Hardening Nuclear Stance, Halting UN Inspections
Iran‘s Guardian Council watchdog body approved a law on Wednesday that obliges the government to halt UN inspections of its nuclear sites and step up uranium enrichment beyond the limit set under Tehran’s 2015 nuclear deal if sanctions are not eased in two months.

In retaliation for the killing last week of Iran‘s top nuclear scientist, which Tehran has blamed on Israel, Iran‘s hardline-dominated parliament on Tuesday approved the bill with a strong majority that will harden Iran‘s nuclear stance.

The Guardian Council is charged with ensuring draft laws do not contradict Shi’ite Islamic laws or Iran’s constitution. However, the stance of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has the last word on all matters of state, is not known.

“Today in a letter, the parliament speaker officially asked the president to implement the new law,” Iran‘s semi-official Fars news agency reported.

Under the new law, Tehran would give two months to the deal’s European parties to ease sanctions on Iran‘s oil and financial sectors, imposed after Washington quit the pact between Tehran and six powers in 2018.

In reaction to US President Donald Trump’s “maximum pressure” policy on Tehran, Iran has gradually reduced its compliance with the deal.

The law pushed by hardline lawmakers would make it harder for US President-elect Joe Biden, who will take office on Jan. 20, to rejoin the agreement.


UAE and Israel's Whirlwind Honeymoon Has Gone Beyond Normalization
Likewise, the fig leaf of Arab unity and solidarity withered up and blew away years ago. The Palestinian cause, once sacrosanct, has become a nuisance, particularly for the Gulf states.

Israel, once the official arch-nemesis of the Arab states, has been replaced by another.

"Both the US and Israel want Arab countries to think their main enemy is Iran," says veteran Palestinian activist and legislator Mustafa Barghouti, commenting on Emirati-Israeli normalization.

The UAE, however, insists its normalization agreement with Israel will benefit the Palestinians. The accord, says Emirati Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah Bin Zayed, "will enable us to continue to stand by the Palestinian people, and realize their hopes for an independent state within a stable and prosperous region."

The Gulf monarchies have always been wary of the Palestinians. They needed skilled Palestinians to build their countries and educate their children in the early years of the oil boom, but were never comfortable with the revolutionary ideologies many Palestinians brought with them.

Not long ago in the Arab world there was a modicum of unanimity on the primacy of the Palestinian cause. The Arab League endorsed the late Saudi King Abdullah's 2002 Arab peace initiative which offered full normalization of ties with Israel in exchange for an Israeli withdrawal from the territories occupied in the 1967 war.

That initiative is all but dead. With Palestinians divided between an isolated Hamas ruling Gaza and an aging, aid-dependent Palestinian Authority with limited sway in parts of the West Bank, both pitted against an Israel that has enjoyed, especially for the last four years, a blank check from Washington, support for the Palestinians might seem like a waste to many Arab regimes.

Wary of Iran, the UAE is following in the footsteps of President Donald Trump, who in his inauguration made clear he was putting his country, the United States, first. Narrow self-interest has beaten out old alliances and causes. Trump's days as president are numbered, but his doctrine has found fertile ground in the Gulf.
UAE Ambassador Tells Algemeiner ‘J100’ Gala: Peace With Israel Requires ‘Courage’ and ‘Boldness’
Making peace with Israel required “courage” and “boldness,” the UAE’s representative in the US, Yousef Al Otaiba, said during an appearance on Tuesday at the 7th annual Algemeiner “J100” gala, held virtually from New York City and broadcast to a global audience.

In an interview with philanthropist and activist Sander Gerber, Ambassador Al Otaiba discussed the recently-signed “Abraham Accords,” noting, “Normalizing with Israel, in the face of the conventional wisdom that is we must have progress on the Palestinian track first, is not an easy decision.”

However, he pointed out, “This is ultimately good for both countries.”

“It’s good for stability, it’s good for prosperity, it’s good for creating jobs, it’s good for technology, it’s good for COVID research, it’s good for our tourism industry,” he added. “It’s good for young Emiratis and Israelis, to grow up understanding and believing that they are not adversaries, that they are not enemies.”


Visiting Bahrain minister says he ‘snuck out’ to tour Jerusalem, feel its spirit
The Abraham Accords have brought to Israel a steady stream of dignitaries from the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, visiting the country to hammer out diplomatic agreements or advance trade ties. While they always emphasize their respective countries’ respect for religious tolerance, they usually steer away from discussing in public their personal feelings about being in the Holy Land.

Not so Zayed R. Alzayani, Bahrain’s minister for industry, commerce and tourism, who spent three days in Israel this week — including a stroll through Jerusalem’s Old City, which he described as a spiritual highlight.

“I’ve always spoken to people who’ve been to Jerusalem. And they always told me: It’s probably the most spiritual city in the world. I felt it last night. I felt it,” he told The Times of Israel on Thursday during a briefing for Israeli journalists. “And the closer you get to the holy sites — I don’t know, maybe it was a weird feeling, maybe it’s just me — I felt there’s more spirit.”

Alzayani walked through the Old City’s Armenian, Jewish and Muslim quarters. He saw the Western Wall and the Dome of the Rock atop the Temple Mount — the third-holiest site in Islam — from afar, though his schedule didn’t allow for a visit to these holy sites.

“When I got to the balcony where you can see the Wall and Haram al-Sharif [Temple Mount], you could feel — the air was different,” he said. “It was a nice feeling. Probably the closest I felt to that was being in Mecca and Medina, as a Muslim.”
Israel Set to Officially Open Embassy in Bahrain by End of Month
Israel is set to open an official embassy in Bahrain this month, completing a decades-long process of building diplomatic relations with the Gulf country.

Ties between Israel and Bahrain have been conducted secretly for some 25 years, but have become more and more public over the past decade, including the opening of an unofficial diplomatic mission.

Bahrain officially normalized relations with Israel when the two countries signed the “Abraham Accords” in September.

Axios reported that, by the end of December, the secret diplomatic mission will be shut down and an embassy will be opened at a new site, which will be publicly labeled with an Israeli flag.

Two Israeli diplomats have reportedly already arrived in the Bahraini capital of Manama and received official accreditation. The process of choosing a site is underway, and the Israeli government wants to open the embassy as soon as possible in order to foster the burgeoning business ties between the two countries.
West Bank goods to be labeled Israeli in Bahrain
Israeli products produced over the pre-1967 lines from West Bank settlements, east Jerusalem and the Golan Heights can be labeled “Made in Israel” in Bahrain, the country’s Industry, Commerce and Tourism Minister Zayed bin Rashid Al Zayani said on Thursday.

“Without going into details and border lines, Israeli products or services... will be treated like Israeli,” Al Zayani said, when asked about the subject.

“We will recognize them as Israeli products,” he added.

Al Zayani also pointed out that much of the business between Israel and Bahrain will not necessarily be in tangible products, but rather in services from Israel’s tech sector.

His words come at a time when the Palestinians are pushing the international community to boycott Israeli products produced over the Green Line, in east Jerusalem and in the West Bank, by way of forcing Israel to withdraw to the pre-1967 lines.

Bahrain routinely supports United Nations resolutions, held to be anti-Israeli, which state that all UN member nations must treat Israeli goods produced over the pre-1967 lines if they were made outside of Israel. Just Wednesday Bahrain was one of 145 countries that approved a UN General Assembly resolution, called the “Peaceful settlement of the Question of Palestine.”
In blow to BDS movement, Norway to ignore UN 'blacklist'
The Norwegian government has decided to ignore the United Nation's "blacklist" – of over 100 companies across the globe said to be complicit in violating Palestinian human rights by operating in Israeli settlements – and allow a tourism company that appears on the list to provide services to government and other organizations inside Norway.

The decision deals a harsh blow to the anti-Israel boycott, sanctions and divestment movement and its attempts to financially harm Israeli companies and companies doing business in Israel.

The "blacklist" was published by the UN Human Rights Office in early 2020 and includes 112 Israeli and international companies that operate beyond the Green Line, in Jerusalem's environs, the Golan Heights and Judea and Samaria.

Among the companies on the list are food maker General Mills, tech and communications giants Motorola Solutions and Altice Europe, and infrastructure companies like France's Egis and Alstom, and British company JC Bamford Excavators. It also included travel firms Airbnb and Expedia, along with TripAdvisor, Booking.com and Opodo.

The list was compiled following heavy pressure from BDS groups and its publication was significant in terms of harming Israel. However, since its release, pro-Israel lobbies in Israel and abroad have worked hard to curb any practical consequences on the ground. In recent months in Norway, local BDS groups and pro-Israel lobbies have locked horns over the services provided by a company named Egencia to schools in the country. Egencia provides travel booking services and is owned by Expedia, which appears on the blacklist.
In Khartoum, Sudanese tell ToI reporter: Prosperity better than hungry idealism
Ahmed, a welder from Sudan’s capital, Khartoum, is puzzled. “I don’t understand what the Palestinians want from us,” he says. “They have all kinds of ties with Israel: Trade relations, security coordination, and medical cooperation. If the Palestinians are allowed to benefit from these ties with Israel, why should we be denied?”

My visit to Sudan this month came amid developments that are nothing less than historic. It was just a few weeks after the Sudanese and Israeli governments announced their plan to normalize ties between the two countries on October 23, and a year and a half after the April 2019 overthrow of dictator Omar al-Bashir, who ruled Sudan for the past 30 years.

Sudan has not historically been a friend to Israel and has been party to a decades-old Arab boycott of Israel that began following the 1967 Six Day War, when Arab leaders gathered in Khartoum to announce what became known as the “three nos”: no peace, no recognition, and no negotiations with Israel.

Decades later, some Sudanese leaders are still unconvinced the “nos” should be abandoned for deals covering agriculture, trade, aviation and migration. “Normalization contradicts Sudanese national law, and the Arab national commitment,” said former prime minister Sadiq al-Mahdi, referring to the boycott of Israel, which remains in force under Sudanese law until the formation of a provisional government. The country has not had a sitting parliament since April 2019 and the Israel-Sudan pact has yet to be formally signed.

However, Gen. Abdel-Fattah Burhan, head of the ruling sovereign council, views the normalization deal with Israel as a lifeline back to the international trade community. “We all want a Palestinian state within the 1967 borders… but we do not want to make Sudan bear full responsibility for it,” said Burhan on October 26.

Walking the streets of Khartoum and speaking with the citizenry, it becomes clear there is a real sense of change in the air. And although many locals are not sure exactly what they want, they know very well what they don’t want — and that’s more of the same.

“The last government was very busy with spreading ideas and ideologies of hatred and extremism,” Ahmed says. “But it did not worry about the daily lives of its citizens. We are fed up with the speeches about noble goals. Let me feed my family first.”
Czech Republic Announces Plans to Open Diplomatic Office in Jerusalem
The Czech Republic plans to open a diplomatic office in Jerusalem, announced Israel’s Foreign Affairs Minister Gabi Ashkenazi on Wednesday after speaking with his counterpart, Tomáš Petříček.

Ashkenazi tweeted: “I just spoke with my colleague, the Czech FM @TPetricek, and congratulated him on the decision to open an official diplomatic office in Jerusalem. This decision as well as recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital emphasizes our strong friendship and strategic partnership.”

Petříček confirmed the news in a similar tweet.

Neither Ashkenazi nor Petříček provided a time frame as to when the diplomatic office would actually open.
Zelensky Announces Ukraine-Israel Free-Trade Agreement to Take Effect in January
A free trade agreement between Israel and Ukraine will take effect beginning Jan. 1, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky posted on his Twitter account. “Relations between our countries are rising to a new level,” he wrote. “This gives a ‘green light’ to Ukraine’s export growth, and creates closer cooperation in the fields of high-tech, engineering and investment.”

Originally signed in January 2019, the agreement promotes the development of bilateral trade and economic cooperation between the two countries, and reduces tariffs on Israeli exports to Ukraine and on Ukrainian imports to Israel.

The move is expected to reduce the cost of food in Israel, particularly relevant amid the current economic crisis.

“This agreement will help lower the cost of living in both countries, and will serve to promote Ukrainian industry,” noted Israeli Ambassador to Ukraine Joel Lion, responding to the announcement.
UN Watch: U.N. Targets Israel in 5 Resolutions, Rest of the World 0
The United Nations General Assembly today adopted five resolutions against Israel, and zero on the entire rest of the world. The onslaught came in wake of yesterday’s UN Palestinian solidarity day to mark the anniversary of November 29, 1947, when Palestinian Arabs and allied Arab states rejected the UN plan to create a Palestinian Arab state alongside a Jewish state. Click here for all anticipated 2020 UN General Assembly resolutions singling out Israel.

Following are the adopted resolutions that target Israel, with full votes, excerpts and analysis: “Committee on the Exercise of the Inalienable Rights of the Palestinian People” [A/75/L.32]: Adopted by a vote of 91 – 17 – 54 Excerpt: “Noting with deep regret the passage of 52 years since the onset of the Israeli occupation and over 70 years since the adoption of resolution 181 (II) on 29 November 1947 and the Nakba without tangible progress towards a peaceful solution…”

Analysis: Biased committee is one of the veteran pillars of the UN’s anti-Israel infrastructure. It is the only GA human rights committee devoted to a single cause. Its reports systematically turn a blind eye to Palestinian terrorism against Israeli civilians. Committee’s mandate concerns Israeli actions only and is inherently prejudiced and one-sided.
UNGA approves five anti-Israel resolutions, but Palestinians lose votes
Palestinians enjoy an automatic majority at the General Assembly, so Israel often measures success in that forum even in small doses, counting each country that swings in its direction as a win.

Four of the five votes were approved with the support of less than half the 193-member plenum and because many countries abstained.

Five countries supported Israel on all five texts: Australia, Canada, Israel, Marshall Islands, Micronesia and the United States. Brazil either voted with Israel or abstained.

The resolution in which Israel achieved the most significant success was in an affirmation of the UN Committee for the Exercise of the Inalienable Rights for the Palestinian People, which Israel considers to be particularly hostile to it.

Austria, Bulgaria, Germany and Papua New Guinea all switched their votes from abstention to voting with Israel in the opposition, casting four new “no votes” and Iceland, which often votes in favor of the Palestinians, halted its support of the text this year and abstained.

The resolution was approved 92-17, compared to 92-13 last year. There were 54 abstentions, compared to 61 last year.


Sen. Cruz reintroduces act to designate Muslim Brotherhood a terrorist group
Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) reintroduced the Muslim Brotherhood Terrorist Designation Act this week, his office announced on Wednesday. The act urges the US State Department to designate the Muslim Brotherhood as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO).

“I am proud to reintroduce this bill and to advance America’s fight against radical Islamic terrorism,” said Cruz. “I commend the current administration’s work calling terrorism by its name and combating the spread of this potent threat, and I look forward to receiving the additional information this new bill requests from the Department of State.

“Many of our closest allies in the Arab world have long ago concluded that the Muslim Brotherhood is a terrorist group that seeks to sow chaos across the Middle East,” he said.

Senator Jim Inhofe (R-OK) co-sponsored the bill, saying that, “since the founding of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, Brotherhood-affiliated groups have consistently preached and incited hatred against Christians, Jews, and other Muslims while supporting designated radical terrorists.

“I am proud that under the Trump administration, we continue to call out and combat radical terrorism, and I am glad to join my colleagues today in reintroducing this legislation,” he said. “We must continue to condemn foreign terrorist organizations and hold them accountable for the evil they perpetrate.”


PMW: The moral bankruptcy of the World Bank
The Nov. 24, 2020 report analyzing the financial situation of the Palestinian Authority clearly demonstrated the moral bankruptcy of the World Bank. While the report mentioned a host of factors that will contribute to and be affected by the PA’s assessed financial shortfall of $760 million, the World Bank completely ignored the PA’s generous terror reward policy, through which the PA squanders hundreds of millions of dollars every year.

Since its creation, the PA has operated a two-pronged terror reward policy. On the one hand, the PA pays monthly salaries to terrorist prisoners and released prisoners. On the other, the PA pays monthly allowances to wounded terrorists and to the families of dead terrorists.

In 2020, the PA continues to spend hundreds of millions of shekels on the terror reward program - referred to as the PA’s “Pay-for-Slay” policy - even prioritizing the payments over purchasing potentially life saving medical equipment to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. The PA is even creating a new terror bank specifically designated to ensure the continued payment of the terror rewards whilst simultaneously trying to circumvent Israeli anti-terror legislation.

Shockingly, the World Bank chose to ignore this pugnacious policy. When it assessed the potential impact of the PA’s budgetary shortfall in its recent report, the World Bank reached the conclusion that if the international community does not provide the PA with additional aid, the PA will “be forced to further cut spending impacting basic service delivery” and that the:

“Lack of additional financing would also force the PA to scale back medical and social expenditures in response to the crisis, thereby increasing the hardship.”

[Economic Developments in the Palestinian Territories, Nov. 24, 2020]
Erdogan hosts known terror sympathizer at Turkey's presidential residence
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan met with a former grand mufti of Jerusalem and known terror supporter from the Al-Aqsa Mosque on the Temple Mount, Wednesday.

Sheikh Ekrima Sa'id Sabri, a radical religious figure known for his anti-Israel views, Holocaust denial, and support for terrorism, stayed at the republic's official presidential residence in Ankara during his visit.

In their meeting, Erdogan said, "It is Turkey's role to remove the oppression from those who are oppressed, and that first and foremost is the Palestinian people," according to Arab media reports.

Sabri emphasized the importance of the Muslim nation's support for the steadfast stance of the residents of Jerusalem.

In a recent diatribe on Oct. 8, Sabri said, "The Zionists' massacres" on Al-Aqsa were ongoing. "We have no other option other than opposition and defending the mosque with all of our might," he said.

Sabri has accused the "Israeli occupation" of repeated attacks on Al-Aqsa and the surrounding area. He has called on Muslim worshipers to defend the site, saying, "Muslims are ready to sacrifice themselves for the mosque."

Nadav Segal of the right-wing group Im Tirzu said Sabri's Turkey visit "makes it incredibly clear that Erdogan is trying to establish his grip on and involvement in Jerusalem affairs, whether through various charity organizations or diplomatic means. The visit, made to Erdogan's residence, shows the considerable importance that Erdoğan places on this issue, and how he has chosen to strengthen ties with radical pro-terror actors as a tactical method to advance his goals. This is similar to the [president's] hosting of a delegation of Hamas members and granting them Turkish citizenship a few months ago."


Report: Nasrallah Moving to Iran Indefinitely Fearing Assassination
The Kuwaiti newspaper Al-Jarida [not very reliable] reported on Monday that “Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah has decided to move his residence to Tehran for an indefinite period until the tensions created following the assassination of the nuclear scientist Muhsen Fakhrizadeh ​​and the end of Trump’s term (translation: Amir Tsarfati).”

The newspaper cites intelligence sources in Lebanon that have recently intercepted massive communication between Hezbollah and the Revolutionary Guards regarding their fears of a planned assassination of the terrorist leader.

Many on the social networks have questioned the wisdom of Nasrallah’s moving from the bunker where he has been hiding successfully since 2006 to the very place where agents of all stripes have been assassinating key Iranian officials and blowing up military facilities. But if there’s one thing Sheikh Nasrallah knows how to do it’s staying alive.

Al-Manar, a pro-Hezbollah website, on Wednesday night reported that Israeli aircraft flew over Beirut at a low altitude – but they’ve been doing it frequently since 2006, and certainly since the start of the Syrian civil war in 2010, and the well-entrenched mole Nasrallah never came out to seek shelter elsewhere.
Has Hizbullah Become the Middle East's Weak Horse?
Nabatieh is Hizbullah's heartland, 15 miles from Lebanon's border with Israel. Locals say there are three types of Hizbullah members: the true ideologues, those who initially embraced Hizbullah's mission but are now embarrassed by its actions and antics, and those who just signed up for the money. Hizbullah members may still receive salaries far above the local rate, but Iran's financial troubles have led to the payments being reduced by half.

Locals also point to the 4,000 Hizbullah members dead in Syria and question why an organization that depicted itself as Lebanese allowed its members to serve as mercenaries for Iran in Syria. While some proclaim the "maximum pressure" campaign against Iran to be a failure, in the heart of Hizbullah country, residents say cash-poor Hizbullah has lost its luster.

The question is whether the new U.S. administration will snatch defeat from the jaws of victory by pumping resources into the Islamic Republic of Iran, which will benefit groups like Hizbullah.
JCPA: Iranian Security Officials Admit Intelligence Failures and Call for Cleaning House
What Are the Limits of Iran’s Restraint?

In Iran, the dilemma grows of how and where to respond to the assassination of the Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, and how far to stretch the restraint after the latest assassination that joins the long list of senior officials eliminated – in Iran and abroad. So far, Iran has not responded as it is “required” after issuing threats after the deaths of Imad Mughniyeh, Qassem Soleimani, operatives associated with the precision missile program, IRGC personnel in Syria, and important figures among the pro-Iranian militias in Iraq and others.

It is possible that Iran will continue its restraint in retaliating and will choose to strike specifically against “easier” targets that are allied to the United States and Israel, such as the oil facilities and strategic infrastructure in Saudi Arabia. Such an attack took place on September 19, 2019, with precision cruise missiles hitting the Saudi refinery in Abqaiq and Khuris.

In this regard, on November 23, 2020, the Iranian Mehr news agency broadcast a video of an Aramco oil distribution site in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, being hit by Quds-2 missiles launched by the Houthis in Yemen.7, 8 Iran could be waiting for the new U.S. administration that might limit Israel’s aggressive activities while negotiations are in the offing and test Israel-American relations, which reached new heights during Trump’s presidency.

By launching long-range precision cruise missiles at Abqaiq and Khuris and periodic Houthi missile launches against strategic targets in Saudi Arabia, Iran demonstrated that it has the operational know-how, and if it chooses, to launch surprise attacks with precision stealth cruise missiles at strategic sites, including in Israel.

One way or another, Iran must conduct a thorough house-cleaning to investigate the repeated infiltrations and attacks on its security and intelligence establishments. These recurring intelligence operations have attacked Iran’s scientists, nuclear infrastructure (such as the explosion in the Natanz enrichment facility in July 2020), and sometimes its electricity and oil facilities. Like in the past, the regime will publicize in the next few weeks and in the run-up to presidential elections in June 2021 information that it arrested people involved in the attacks and espionage in Iran so that it could save a little of its honor among the Iranian people who are exposed to details of the calamities via social media, international reports, and the joyful Iranian opposition.
Assessing the Damage to Iran's Nuclear Weapons Effort
However, it is apparent that the assassination was timed to take advantage of the final winds of support in the outgoing US administration, anticipating and neutralizing expected barriers to such activity in the incoming Biden administration, and influencing its room to maneuver. The operation was also timed to narrow the risk of a significant Iranian offensive response in the near term, given the fears in Tehran of a severe offensive overreaction on the part of the Trump administration, and an Iranian desire to facilitate the resumption of contact with the Biden administration. Some even go so far as to interpret the assassination as an Israeli-American attempt to drag Iran into a "strategic ambush," that is, to bring about a harsh response that will provide the Trump administration with a pretext to attack Iran's nuclear facilities. This theory is based on reports of President Trump consulting his advisers on the issue, as well as the reported reinforcements of American aircraft carriers and bombers to the region. However, all of these can be also seen as moves aimed at deterring Iran from escalating while the United States reduces its ground presence in the region, and not necessarily as evidence of an American intent to escalate.

What will be the Iranian response? The Iranian regime has blamed Israel for the assassination, thus freeing itself from having to attack American targets and risking a powerful retaliation. However, it vowed to retaliate, as revenge and to deter further assassinations. Iran may choose to harm Israeli figures and targets in Israel and abroad, given the limitations of its ability to harm Israeli territory from the operational theaters of its proxies – Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen – and the serious consequences such action would incur. When Iran looks ahead to the Biden era, it may delay its revenge mission, despite calls for an immediate response. Expected Iranian non-military responses are in the area of the nuclear program. The Iranian parliament, the Majlis, has made a non-binding decision to raise the enrichment rate to 20 percent, place advanced centrifuges at enrichment sites, rebuild a heavy water reactor, and even withdraw from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Additional Protocol. Measures restricting IAEA inspectors, who were accused of disclosing the details of the assassinated nuclear scientists, were also proposed, along with diplomatic action against those responsible for the assassination.

What should Israel do? First, it is important that official Israel be mindful that “silence is golden,” and avoid winks and hints. The Israeli government must assume that the Iranian response will be directed mainly against Israel, and therefore commit to intelligence vigilance and immediate operational readiness in the defense arrays, including from the Red Sea. It is necessary to prepare for the possibility that Iran will use its missiles from Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen to target Israel, as well as Israeli targets abroad. Although the number of Israelis abroad has declined significantly due to the coronavirus pandemic, the Abraham Accords will increase the available Israeli targets in the Gulf states. In these contexts, coordination with the United States is important, as an essential partner and as a multiplier of intelligence, operational, and diplomatic power. Even now, communication channels must be opened up with incoming senior Biden government officials, as the crisis is expected to continue into their term. Not only should the nuclear scientists and military dimensions of the Iranian project be on the agenda, but also the enrichment infrastructure, the accumulating uranium stockpiles, the shortened time to a breakout, the options for thwarting Iran's nuclear program, the overall strategy to prevent nuclear weapons in Iran, and the overarching Israel-US cooperation in upcoming years – including the critical context of Iran's nuclear program.

In conclusion, barring narrow political considerations, whoever ordered Fakhrizadeh's assassination apparently tried to achieve three strategic objectives: damage Iran's nuclear program; obstruct the Biden administration's return to the nuclear agreement; and perhaps, though less likely, encourage an escalation that would result in a US attack on Iran's nuclear sites. The first objective seems to have been achieved, although the response to the assassination is still ahead and may exact a costly price. Attainment of the other two goals depends heavily on the Iranian response, but in any case, these are far-reaching objectives with slimmer chances of realization.
NY Sun Editorial: Europe Sends Its Condolences to Iran
Ever wonder why so many Americans share President Trump’s skepticism of Europe? Look no further than its reaction to the assassination of the mastermind of Iran’s atomic-bomb project. Moshen Fakhrizadeh was a leader of Iran’s effort to obtain an atomic bomb to use on the country in which the survivors of the Holocaust found redemption. Yet the Europeans rushed out a statement calling the attack a “criminal act.”

Plus, too, the EU, in a statement from its High Representative, Josep Borrell, extended condolences to the bomb maker’s family. We don’t dismiss the cruelty of war. Yet the European Union expresses not a syllable of appreciation for the possibility that the attack might yet buy time and safety for Israel (and Europe). Nor did it acknowledge the early warnings from Jerusalem about what Fakhrizadeh was up to.

Nor was there a particle of historical reference. No reference was made of, say, the attack on Iraq’s nuclear program in 1981. That’s when Israeli F16s suddenly wheeled out of the skies over Baghdad and destroyed the reactor the French were building to help Saddam gain the capability to use atomic weapons against Israel. That attack was condemned the world over (including, in America, by the Reagan administration*).

No one has ever had any illusions about the fairweatherness of Europe’s friendship toward Israel. Just the other day, President Macron called Ben Smith of the Times to complain about the way the American press was criticizing him for his crackdown on Islamist violence. Last week at Antwerp, the trial began of Iranian terrorists who, on a tip from Jerusalem, were collared while preparing to attack France. So why is Mr. Macron silent?
FDD: Key Targets Remain for U.S. Sanctions on Iran
The U.S. Department of the Treasury last week sanctioned the Mustazafan Foundation, one of three critical holdings in the business empire of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The Trump administration, which has vowed to continue its maximum pressure campaign against Iran until the last days of its term, can build on this designation by sanctioning the following entities.

Razavi Economic Organization
The Razavi Economic Organization is the business arm of Astan Quds Razavi, another one of the three critical holdings in Khamenei’s business empire. (Treasury designated the third holding, known as the Execution of Imam Khomeini’s Order, or EIKO, in 2018.) In 2019, Khamenei appointed his longtime aid Ahmad Marvi as Astan Quds Razavi’s custodian.

One of the wealthiest entities in Iran, Astan Quds Razavi has strict control over the economies of three eastern provinces of the country. In 2016, the value of its real estate portfolio was an estimated $20 billion, according to BBC Persian. Astan Quds Razavi owns more than 3,000 square miles of land, including 43 percent of Mashhad, the country’s second-largest city.

By designating the Economic Razavi Organization, Washington will increase the pressure on Khamenei’s pocketbook.


Reviewing BBC News website reporting on the Fakhrizadeh assassination
In fact a Bulgarian court convicted two people of that attack, with the Chief Prosecutor noting that evidence “showed Hezbollah provided financial and logistical backing for the attack”.

Gardner also downplays Iran’s responsibility for previous attacks:
“Years earlier, Hezbollah and Iran were blamed for deadly attacks on Israeli interests in Argentina.”

Gardner states:
“Mr Fakhrizadeh was not only a leading nuclear scientist, he had a senior role within the defence establishment, as evidenced by the number of military figures at his funeral.”

Once again BBC audiences were not informed of Fakhrizadeh’s position as a senior officer in the IRGC in this article.

As we see only one of the BBC’s five reports on the topic bothered to mention that Fakhrizadeh was a senior officer in the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps which is designated as a terrorist organisation by the US, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain and sanctioned by the EU. While BBC audiences were not provided with the full picture concerning Fakhrizadeh’s more recent activities, Iranian talking points concerning its supposedly ‘peaceful’ nuclear programme were uncritically repeated, along with the regime’s claims concerning as yet completely unevidenced Israeli responsibility for the assassination and assorted unsupported speculations concerning motive.
Buried in Guardian coverage of Iran nuke chief's death Tehran's calls for Israel's destruction
The assassination of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh , a brigadier general in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the father of Iran’s nuclear weapons program, last week was characterised in an official Guardian editorial yesterday as “a reckless and provocative act”, “a potential breach of international law”, and a blow to “diplomacy” that will undermine Iran’s “moderates” and was likely designed to shore up Netanyahu’s “electoral prospects”.

An earlier editorial at The Observer (a Guardian sister publication) warned that the alleged “Israeli assassination” represents a “declaration of war” against the Islamic Republic, and dismissed those who characterise Iran as an “evil” regime and “existential threat” as reciting a simplistic “rightwing narrative”.

Indeed, readers who happened upon the Guardian and Observer editorials – and almost all of their coverage of Fakhrizadeh‘s killing – could easily believe that those emphasizing Iran’s threat to Israel’s existence are engaging in cynical propaganda, because absent from both pieces is any acknowledgement that Iranian military and political leaders have repeatedly threatened to annihilate the Jewish state.

You’d believe, rather, if Israel was behind the attack, that the operation was launched for no legitimate national security reason whatsoever.
Iran’s Coronavirus Cases Exceed One Million: Health Ministry
Iran’s total cases of novel coronavirus hit 1 million on Thursday with 13,922 new cases recorded in the past 24 hours, the health ministry said, as the Middle East’s worst-affected country’s death toll reached 49,348.

Ministry spokeswoman Sima Sadat Lari told state TV that 358 people had died from the coronavirus since Wednesday and that confirmed cases of COVID-19 infection had reached 1,003,494.

Iran has introduced tougher restrictions to stem a third wave of coronavirus infections, including closing non-essential businesses and travel curbs.



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