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Sunday, January 21, 2018

What is the Palestinian strategy without negotiations?



The Palestinian leadership has made it clear that they will not accept any United States involvement in the peace process.

Obviously, Israel isn't going to accept any process that does not involve the United States.

Which means that the Palestinian Arab have given up on negotiations.

So what are they planning to do?

Mahmoud Aloul, Fatah Deputy President, gives an interview that is reproduced in the Fatah Facebook page and Al Quds. And while he didn't go into any specifics, it looks like the Palestinians are pretty much continuing with their strategy of the past few years.

Aloul says that the Palestinian leadership has reviewed the actions of all previous US administrations, and decided that all of them - Obama included - were really pro-Israel  and had no interest in helping the Palestinians get a state.

Delusion continues to be official Palestinian policy.

Aloul insists, however, that the two-state solution is the only one that is being considered. Even if the Palestinian Authority dissolves. 

"We have no illusions that the United States can work for peace," Aloul said. "We washed our hands  from the United States on this subject, and so today we are looking for a means to reach the freedom of our people and to end the occupation, that is the basis. We are fed up with the United States, and that is why we are heading today to the European Union and the United Nations. We are going to the world to build an alternative international reference and to work on the elaboration of an international conference."

This is the crux of Palestinian strategy - to use the EU and UN to pressure Israel to give them a state in 100% of the Green Line territories without any compromises or promises. Which is pretty much what they had been doing for the past few years anyway, because the idea of compromise is anathema.

What about Arab nations that are trying to get closer relations with Israel? Aloul's answer shows that the Palestinian leadership has almost given up on convincing the Arab leaders otherwise:

Q: If Egypt and Saudi Arabia are making a regional peace plan, what do you do?
A: We will not do anything. Our decision is clear. We never want to expand the front of our enemies. Our main enemy is the Israeli occupation and the American policy that advocates it. We have no other enemy. We seek to have positive relations with all, with our Arab nation and with the world. If the Arab nations have another position on our cause we leave it to their people and do not open a battle with them.
If I am reading this right, the Palestinians are now more convinced of support from the Europeans than from their fellow Arabs.

This is a "burn your bridges" strategy. Palestinians are betting that the demographic issue combined with BDS and political pressure from the EU will make Israel surrender without the Palestinians having to compromise at all. Of course they won't negotiate - they don't want to make concessions. 

The Arab states have woken up years ago to the fact that their investments in the Palestinian enterprise has been a waste of money. Their support since then has been vocal and symbolic, but not very concrete. 

America is reaching the same conclusion.

For the PA to bet that the EU will not do the same thing in the next few years is a hell of a gamble.




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