Fools, apparently, rush in where angels fear to go. At the same time, he who hesitates is lost. So it seems that folk wisdom doesn’t provide
obvious advice on how fast to move when military or political advantage opens
up.
As mentioned last time, timing is one
of the crucial ingredients for any sort of political or military strategy. And for a small nation such as Israel, which
has been at the center of military and political conflict since the nation’s
birth, deciding between “full-speed-ahead,” “steady-as-she-goes” and
“proceed-with-caution” is a routine decision.
At this moment in history, when a U.S. President hostile to
the Jewish state has been replaced by one respectful of its interests, there is
an understandable tendency to want to rush ahead and gain as much advantage as
possible. In some cases, this is a wise
choice, especially in places like the UN where American backing of Israel has
returned with a vengeance.
At the same time, while it might seem that this is the right
moment for Israeli politicians to push controversial legislation, or for
Israel’s supporters abroad to assume a friendly White House and Congress means
brighter days ahead, there are a number of reasons to move cautiously through
the today’s uncharted waters of US and international politics.
To begin with, the new US President has become a lightning
rod for a broad range of opposing forces, domestically and internationally. And as we have seen in recent years, such
forces have little resistance to being infiltrated – if not entirely taken over
– by anti-Israel activists ready to force their issue to the top of everyone
else’s agenda.
The mercurial nature of now President Trump also means that
assuming continued unalloyed support from this White House is as much a folly
as counting on anyone outside of ourselves to make protection of Israel’s
interests an ongoing top priority. While
it is highly unlikely we’ll see the same kind of animus we experienced with
Trump’s predecessor, there is no shortage of potential flash points Israel and
her friends need to navigate. Are we
prepared, for example, if the new President gets it into his head that he can
resolve the Israeli-Palestinian dispute with some grand bargain that has eluded
less talented “deal-makers?”
Last time, I mentioned the difference between
administrative, legislative and cultural victories which can provide a
framework for determining how to best proceed during unpredictable times.
The sorts of Executive Orders we’ve seen flowing from the
White House represent the sort of slam-bam wins that make supportive partisans
cheer and opposing ones squeal, but such “victories” tend to be highly
unstable. President Obama’s major
victories (including ObamaCare, the Iran Deal and various Executive fiats he ordered), for instance, are all
examples of victories won without widespread legislative and public
support. So it’s no accident that these
are the very issues most easily undone by his successor.
Legislative victories – especially ones that take into
account multiple perspectives – tend to be more stable and longer lived. One need only look at how bi-partisan
Congressional support prevented the Obama administration from doing even more
damage to the US-Israel relationship to see the power bi-partisan consensus
wields within a democracy.
But on the whole, the most long-lasting political victories
take place at the cultural level. Civil
rights, women’s rights, LGBQ rights, victory in the Cold War and – yes –
support for the Jewish state are societal transformations within the US that
were cultivated over decades, to the point where they are now givens threatened
more by over-reach of their supporters than by hostile forces eager to see these
examples of social progress overturned.
Anti-Israel forces assume they are playing a long game,
hoping that the violence and propaganda they have visited upon the world will
eventually translate to an abandonment of the Jewish state – if not by this generation
of Americans, then perhaps the next.
What they have failed to take into account is that Israel
and her friends are also capable of long-game strategy. Bi-partisan Congressional support, for
example, did not emerge out of thin air but was cultivated over decades by
smart, political operators within the organized Jewish community – leveraging
general support for Israel within a US public cultivated by countless other
Jewish groups and individuals dedicated to telling the truth to counter the
lies of the BDS “movement” and its antecedents.
What this means in today’s unstable world is that Israel
needs to continue to leverage the current supportive atmosphere while not
becoming joined at the hip with today’s administration – or any administration
– to the exclusion of alliances that contribute to ongoing legislative and
cultural support.
Friends of Israel happy with the new President need to
understand the cost (and potential instability) of administrative victories,
and plan accordingly. Similarly,
pro-Israel forces hostile to Trump et al need to fight within the movements
they work with to ensure the anti-Trump agenda doesn’t become yet another
progressive cause that falls to ruins after infiltration and takeover by the
ruthless foes of the Jewish state.
Winning in a long game requires forgoing
today’s single marshmallow for tomorrow’s two. In other words, it requires resisting
impatience, thinking in terms of decades, rather than weeks, and refusing to
allow foes or friends to turn support
for the Jewish state into a domestic partisan football.