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Friday, July 24, 2015

Iran claims it can use ballistic missiles under agreement

From Iran's FARS News:

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif underlined that Tehran's ballistic missile production and use is no violation of the nuclear agreement between the country and the world powers.
"Using the ballistic missiles doesn’t violate the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and it is a violation of a paragraph in the annex of the (UN Security Council) Resolution (2231) which is non-binding," Zarif said in response to questions by legislators in an open session of the parliament in Tehran on Tuesday.

"This paragraph (of the annex) speaks about missiles with nuclear warheads capability and since we don’t design any of our missiles for carrying nuclear weapons, therefore, this paragraph is not related to us at all," he added
This is yet another lie.

From the Center for Strategic and International Studies:

Iran’s Shahab 3 & 3M missiles which have a diameter of 125 cm and a range in excess of 900 km with a payload of 1,000 kg would be able to deliver a nuclear warhead to many of the Middle East capitals and high-value targets. Comparison of the potential ranges of the Iran Shahab missiles versus the Israeli Jericho 2 missile is made. It was found that if Iran launches the Shahab-3M from the Tabriz missile site, carrying a 20kt warhead, it can potentially reach Tel Aviv.
And the Shahab-3 has little military value:
Deploying Ballistic Missiles against military targets would require a number that is very likely to be beyond the current Inventory in Iran. Presently the Shahab Missile is known to have a CEP (Circular Error Probability) greater than 500m, which is large compared to the lethal radius of hardened structures, a large number of missiles with unitary warheads will be required to ensure destruction of such targets. For example a psi of 40 is required to damage a reinforced command center, with a 1000 kg TNT explosive weight the weapon, lethal radius is 21 meters. For a required damage of 0.75 the number of missiles required, if the CEP of the missile is 500 meter, is 1,286.

However, if the missiles are used against large military bases and installations, even with missiles that have large CEPs they are likely to hit something or at least cause some form of damage and disrupt activities. Ballistic missiles can also be used with success against soft targets, in open areas and cities to inflict maximum human casualties and create terror. In essence what is considered as a major component in asymmetric warfare in the form of high civilian casualties.
Accuracy isn't that important for using missiles as a terror instrument- or as a nuclear weapon delivery system.

(h/t Yoel)