By the way, look how prescient Slate was four days ago!
UPDATE: With 90% of the votes counted, the exit polls predicting a tie between Likud and ZU seem to have all been quite wrong:
My guess is that Israelis don't like exit pollsters and will lie to them.
But it ain't over till its over. I just find it hard to believe that even if the remaining 10% are all in Tel Aviv cafes, that the seat counts will change significantly.