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Wednesday, January 21, 2015

Did Obama really "halt the progress" of Iran towards nukes?

In President Obama's State of the Union address, he said:

Our diplomacy is at work with respect to Iran, where, for the first time in a decade, we’ve halted the progress of its nuclear program and reduced its stockpile of nuclear material. Between now and this spring, we have a chance to negotiate a comprehensive agreement that prevents a nuclear-armed Iran; secures America and our allies - including Israel; while avoiding yet another Middle East conflict. There are no guarantees that negotiations will succeed, and I keep all options on the table to prevent a nuclear Iran. But new sanctions passed by this Congress, at this moment in time, will all but guarantee that diplomacy fails - alienating America from its allies; and ensuring that Iran starts up its nuclear program again. It doesn’t make sense. That is why I will veto any new sanctions bill that threatens to undo this progress. The American people expect us to only go to war as a last resort, and I intend to stay true to that wisdom.

The fact is that the interim agreement included loopholes for Iran to continue its quest for nuclear weapons - and the delivery systems for them.

Here's a chart that describes it with footnotes:

[1] http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2013/11/23/fact-sheet-first-step-understandings-regarding-islamic-republic-iran-s-n
[2] http://hibbs.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1748/reconverting-irans-u3o8-to-uf6
[3] http://isis-online.org/isis-reports/detail/analysis-of-status-of-irans-compliance-with-the-joint-plan-of-action/ 
[4] http://freebeacon.com/national-security/iran-americans-have-very-clearly-surrendered/
[5] http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/dpb/2015/01/236076.htm
[6] http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/world/2015-01/11/c_133911462.htm
[7] http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.aspx?nn=13931023001531
[8] http://www.businessweek.com/ap/2013-11-27/us-backs-iran-claim-that-some-work-ok-at-arak-site
[9] http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/27/us-iran-nuclear-arak-idUSBRE9AQ0U120131127
[10] http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/11/27/uk-iran-nuclear-arak-idUKBRE9AQ0AC20131127
[11] http://freebeacon.com/national-security/white-house-iranian-ballistic-missile-test-not-a-deal-killer/
[12] http://freebeacon.com/national-security/iran-still-on-track-for-2015-icbm-flight-test/

Obama is also not being honest about the nature of the "new sanctions" being considered in Congress. Josh Block of The Israel project responds (received via email):
Those are ridiculous claims. First, the bill imposes no sanctions on Iran during talks whatsoever. If there is a deal by 6/30 -- a deadline the president set and says will tell us if Iran is willing to make a deal or not -- there are no sanctions.

Second, it is totally counter-intuitive to suggest that Iran will walk away nuclear talks it desperately needs to save its broken economy because of some sanctions that will never come into being if there is an agreement -- which they claim they want.

Like past dire claims -- like central bank sanctions will drive the world into recession or oil prices will soar to $250 a barrel (yes they really said these things) these latest inexplicable claims are worthless and false.

(Chart courtesy TIP)