Moshe Arens on the "demographic threat"

In Ha'aretz:

Many of the important decisions taken in the life of individuals or nations are not based on objective probabilities attached to future events. That information is usually nonexistent, and we may have recourse to game theoretic considerations or intuition in making decisions. When probabilities are introduced, they generally are on pretty shaky ground.

That is the case with the demographic projections that are promoted by those urging an Israeli withdrawal from Judea and Samaria. Here we are advised by some that we should be prepared to cut out parts of the Land of Israel − Judea and Samaria, the biblical heartland − based on certain demographic prognostications indicating that in time the Jewish population would constitute a minority in the State of Israel unless this decision was taken now.

The Danish-Jewish physicist Niels Bohr famously said that prediction is very difficult, especially about the future. That is certainly true in this case. Most past demographic forecasts in Israel have turned out to be wrong.

If this was no more than an academic exercise, there would be nothing to get excited about; the forecasts could be published in an academic journal and we could revisit the data in another 10 or 20 years. But those using these demographic forecasts hold them as a Damocles sword above our heads, insisting that we take a decision now and abandon Judea and Samaria, a decision that would be irreversible.

Yet it might turn out in the years to come that their forecasts were off by 10, 20, maybe 30 percent. Hurry, they shout, there’s no time to lose − the window of opportunity is closing. They are not talking about a mastectomy, they are talking about cutting the heart out of the Land of Israel.

Not very good advice.