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Friday, April 17, 2026

04/17 Links Pt1: Trump says Iran agreed to stop funding Terrorists, will hand over uranium; Trump’s goals in Iran have always been clear; The Lebanon Cease-fire and the Long Game

From Ian:

Seth Mandel: The Lebanon Cease-fire and the Long Game
The cease-fire went into effect this evening and will have an initial time period of 10 days. According to the State Department, “This initial period may be extended by mutual agreement between Lebanon and Israel if progress is demonstrated in the negotiations and as Lebanon effectively demonstrates its ability to assert its sovereignty.”

In other words, Lebanon has to make tangible progress in disarming Hezbollah in order to earn the renewal of the cease-fire after 10 days. Then there’s this: “Israel shall preserve its right to take all necessary measures in self-defense, at any time, against planned, imminent, or ongoing attacks. This shall not be impeded by the cessation of hostilities.”

Israel has a fair amount of freedom of action, then, during the 10-day period. While that is something of a concession from Beirut, in truth it mostly means that Israel will be available to help Lebanon move the needle against Hezbollah, which would then enable the extension of the cease-fire, which is what Lebanon wants anyway.

Finally, the statement says this: “Israel and Lebanon request that the United States facilitate further direct negotiations between the two countries with the objective of resolving all remaining issues, including demarcation of the international land boundary.”

That’s another way of saying Israel’s interests in South Lebanon are legitimate and—in contrast to Hezbollah—the IDF should not be considered a hostile occupier but rather an ally engaged in constructive efforts to restore Lebanese sovereignty.

For Israel, these terms offset much of the risk of pausing attacks on Hezbollah for 10 days. For the Lebanese, the text is an announcement that the existing government is capable of getting Israel to halt its attacks through the diplomatic process, undercutting Hezbollah’s claim that it must stay armed to protect Lebanon from Israel. For Netanyahu specifically, it virtually guarantees that, by election time, Israel will be in a stronger position against Hezbollah than it is now.
Douglas Murray: Trump’s goals in Iran have always been clear
Each time Trump ran for the presidency, a large part of his platform was that he would stop America getting involved in ‘stupid’ wars in the Middle East. Just as Obama had upped America’s drone programme, so Trump developed his own doctrine. The killing of the Iranian terror chief Qasem Soleimani in 2020 was perhaps the first time that Trump showed he could effectively take out an enemy of the United States and deter his opponent from any significant retaliatory strikes. Then earlier this year the US military on his orders carried out the daring raid on Caracas which brought the corrupt Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro to face justice in New York. Trump’s critics complain that the success of that mission has led him to the hubris of Iran.

But if you listen to what the President, his Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, and others have said since the start of this mission, the confusion is on the part of his listeners, not of the administration. From the beginning Trump has made a number of justifications for the action. But the one non-negotiable has been that Iran must not be allowed nuclear weapons. Given that the Iranian side actually boasted to the US negotiating team that they were weeks away from nuclear breakout, it isn’t hard to understand why the US chose this moment to strike. The fact that the Iranians learned from Osirak and spread out their nuclear sites is why this intervention has taken longer than two minutes.

Nevertheless there is chaff being thrown in the air from all sides. Yes at the start Trump suggested to the Iranian people that they rise up and overthrow the regime of the mullahs if they could. But the killing of tens of thousands of people by the religious militias in January has obviously had an effect. ‘Ha ha,’ say Trump’s critics. ‘You see – you tried regime change and failed. Now you will have to – once again – “put boots on the ground”.’ But the President is committed to doing no such thing.

Doubtless he would have liked to have seen the regime receive more opposition internally. But the hope that the Islamic Revolutionary government falls is the maximalist policy. The minimalist one is simply to ensure that for the foreseeable future Iran does not have any capacity to develop nuclear weapons.

I’m slightly surprised by some of the obfuscation and pretence of befuddlement that many national and international observers seem to be displaying in the face of this objective. ‘He hasn’t made it clear,’ they say again and again. But he has. The aim of Trump’s war in Iran is indeed to replay the Iraq intervention. But it is the intervention of 1981, not 2003.
Richard Kemp: Even Iran’s European appeasers now can’t deny the ayatollahs are losing
The regime has been brought to this point only by Trump’s blockade of Iranian ports, which has hit them with economic pressure to the tune of hundreds of millions of dollars a day. This is unsustainable for an already devastated economy. And Trump has made clear that, despite opening the Strait, the blockade will not be lifted until Tehran accepts his other demands.

This has left the European appeasers even further behind the curve than they were before. At the very moment Iran announced its decision, Starmer, Macron and other leaders were meeting in Paris to find a diplomatic solution to opening the Strait. They and their like have repeatedly argued that diplomacy is the only way to resolve the problem of Iran and yet again they have been proved completely wrong.

Those who are not blinded by an allergy to the use of military force to prevent threats have always known that. Decades of diplomacy with the ayatollahs have only ever resulted in them running rings round those who tried it. The threat has only increased, predictably.

Characteristically, the regime has tried to show some kind of defiance in the face of defeat, pretending that the opening of the Strait was their response to a temporary ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Trump has made it clear that the two actions are unconnected.

He also said today: “Iran has agreed to never close the Strait of Hormuz again. It will no longer be used as a weapon against the World!” Here he is being unduly optimistic. Whatever they may or may not have said to him, this regime will always need a heavy stick raised against it, with the clear political will to use it.

That will only work while the occupant of the White House maintains such a will, and we don’t know what we will see from his successor. That is why it is essential that, irrespective of any forthcoming agreement, work continues to remove the regime in Tehran during his term.

The prospects of that happening – at some point – just increased with Tehran displaying further weakness by today’s tacit acceptance of American hegemony.


Amit Segal: Quiet in the Middle East
A person who recently participated in talks with Hamas returned somewhat confused. He discovered that the terrorist organization, which has been at the center of global attention for the past two years and sparked a regional war with international repercussions, is led by a mediocre, panicked and inarticulate bunch. All the way home, he wondered whether Yahya Sinwar and Mohammed Deif were of a higher caliber but were eliminated, or if this is merely a collection of local murderers that Israel, through its failures and blindness, turned into a terrifying and sophisticated monster.

The war in Iran seemingly saved Hamas, temporarily. The deadline set for dismantling the organization has passed, 600 trucks loaded with goods enter Gaza every day, and the organization’s terrorists still rule the roost in western Gaza.

Hamas leaders, however, do not think so. In talks in Cairo, terror is evident on their faces. Qatar has abandoned them to their fate, out of fear of Trump and anger over the backing the organization’s leaders gave to Iran while being hosted in Doha’s luxury hotels. With Iran, the situation is even worse. Hamas has repeatedly pleaded with Tehran to be included in the ceasefire agreement, but unlike Hezbollah, the Iranians do not even bother to reply with a negative answer.

Hamas complains in the talks that Israel violated the agreement, yet pays no price for it; quite the opposite. The organization is beginning to internalize that no one will let them off the hook regarding demilitarization, and that even the most basic weapons must be handed over rather than kept for self-defense. The negotiators have identified a change in their strategy, aimed at stalling for time. Perhaps somehow the world will take an interest in them again. In the meantime, even the planned flotilla to Gaza is suffering from sparse registration. Greta’s attention has drifted elsewhere.
Trump says Iran agreed to stop funding Hamas, Hezbollah, will hand over uranium
US President Donald Trump told CBS on Friday that Iran has agreed to cease funding Hamas and Hezbollah, and will work with the United States to remove its enriched uranium.

Iran has "agreed to everything," said Trump, insisting that "our people" will be involved in the retrieval of Iranian uranium.

Trump noted that the uranium would be brought to the US, emphasizing that no US ground troops would be involved in its retrieval.

"No troops," said Trump. "...Our people, together with the Iranians, are going to work together to go get it. And then we'll take it to the United States."

Trump added that a meeting between Iran and the US is planned for this weekend, with the current US blockade against Iranian traffic in the Strait of Hormuz to remain until a deal is reached. Trump had stated in a Truth Social post earlier on Friday that the US will maintain its blockade on Iranian ports until an agreement is finalized.

Trump further denied reports that the US would be releasing frozen Iranian assets as part of a deal, saying that the US would not pay Iran "10 cents" for its enriched uranium. Reuters reported later on Friday that Trump said no money would change hands as part of a deal being negotiated to end the war in Iran.

Iran is believed to possess more than 900 pounds of uranium enriched up to 60% purity. Iran's nuclear program has been one of the thorniest issues in the negotiations. Trump has said a primary reason for the war was to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon. Iran says its enrichment of uranium, a process that produces fuel for power plants and nuclear warheads depending on its duration, is strictly for peaceful civilian use.

Trump to Reuters: US will work with Iran to recover uranium
Trump's comments to CBS followed comments to Reuters earlier on Friday that the US will work with Iran to recover its enriched uranium and bring it back to the United States.

"We're going to get it together. We're going to go in with Iran, at a nice leisurely pace, and go down and start excavating with big machinery... We'll bring it back to the United States," Trump said during a phone interview.

He said "nuclear dust" would be retrieved "very soon," referring to what he believes remains after the United States and Israel bombed Iran's nuclear installations in June last year.


Iran’s top negotiator threatens to close Strait of Hormuz if US blockade continues
Iran will close the strategic Strait of Hormuz again if the United States continues its blockade of Iranian ports, parliament speaker and top negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf says.

“With the continuation of the blockade, the Strait of Hormuz will not remain open,” Ghalibaf writes on X, adding that passage through the waterway would depend on authorization from Iran.

Ghalibaf says Trump made seven different claims about the war within an hour, all of which were false.

The US “did not win the war with these lies, and they certainly will not get them anywhere in negotiations either,” Ghalibaf says.

The parliament speaker cites a statement from Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson who disputes each of Trump’s claims in more detail.

While Trump claimed there are no sticking points with Iran regarding a deal and that Tehran has agreed to give of its stockpiles of enriched uranium, the foreign ministry spokesperson says in a statement, “Iran’s enriched uranium is not going to be transferred anywhere under any circumstances.”


Israel prohibited from 'bombing Lebanon any longer,' warns Trump
Israel is prohibited from “bombing Lebanon any longer,” said US President Donald Trump in a Truth Social post on Friday.

Trump also confirmed that the US will work with Lebanon separately and “deal with the Hezbollah situation in an appropriate manner.”

“Enough is enough!!!” he concluded in the post.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed the ceasefire following its initial announcement on Thursday, hailing it as "an opportunity to make a historic peace agreement with Lebanon."

In a later statement, Netanyahu claimed that the agreement was accepted at Trump's request, adding that Israel will "provide an opportunity to advance an integrated diplomatic and military solution with the Lebanese government."

He also praised the US president's help in changing the Middle East and achieving "tremendous accomplishments," including removing threats both “near and distant.”

The near threat, said Netanyahu, is the infiltration of terrorists and anti-tank fire. The distant one is what “Nasrallah has built over the years: The firing of 150,000 missiles and rockets intended to destroy Israel's cities.”

The prime minister confirmed that both threats have been removed, adding that a security buffer was established along the northern border “up to Mount Hermon, through the Golan Heights, and down to the Yarmouk.” He also claimed that 90% of the terror group’s missile and rocket stockpiles were destroyed.

“They wanted to surround us with a ring of fire; we created a ring of security,” he said.

However, the job is not yet done, he clarified. “There are things we plan to do regarding the remaining rocket threat and the drone threat,” as well as the dismantling of Hezbollah. The prime minister declined to give details of the plan.


Amid truce with Israel, Aoun says Lebanon to now seek ‘permanent agreements’
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun said on Friday that his country was on the verge of a “new phase” of “permanent agreements,” after the 10-day ceasefire in the Israel-Hezbollah war went into force overnight.

The televised address was his first speech since the US brokered a ceasefire to end six weeks of fighting between Israel and the Hezbollah terror group on Thursday, with Aoun declaring his country was no longer “an arena for anyone’s wars.”

Lebanon was drawn into the Middle East conflict on March 2 when Tehran-backed Hezbollah attacked Israel to avenge the death of Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamenei, with Israel responding by firing waves of strikes Hezbollah targets and launching a ground offensive.

“Now, we all stand before a new phase,” Aoun said in his first speech to the nation since the truce.

“It is the phase of transition from working on a ceasefire to working on permanent agreements that preserve the rights of our people, the unity of our land, and the sovereignty of our nation,” he added, without specifying whether he was referring to a prospective peace deal with Israel.

He said the Lebanese government had “reclaimed Lebanon and Lebanon’s decision-making power for the first time” in nearly half a century.

“Today, we negotiate for ourselves… we are no longer a pawn in anyone’s game, nor an arena for anyone’s wars, and we never will be again,” he said, adding that he was prepared to “bear full responsibility for these choices, and I am ready to go wherever necessary to liberate my land, protect my people, and save my country.”

Since Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam were sworn in last year, Beirut took several unprecedented decisions against Hezbollah, including a commitment to disarm the group in August after a November 2024 ceasefire sought to end its previous conflict with Israel.


UN debates Russian, Chinese veto of Security Council resolution on Strait of Hormuz
Tareq Al Banai, the Kuwaiti ambassador to the United Nations, said on behalf of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Jordan on Thursday that the Gulf states seek to reintroduce a U.N. Security Council resolution to protect shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

Al Banai’s call came after a controversial Chinese and Russian veto of an earlier draft of the resolution on April 7. “The Gulf region lies at the heart of global economic stability,” the Kuwaiti diplomat said. “Its security is inseparable from global security.”

The six countries backed the draft that China and Russia vetoed, which “encouraged” U.N. member states to coordinate defensive measures to protect navigation through the strait. That included escorting ships and deterring attempts to disrupt maritime traffic. It also called Iran’s blockade a threat to international peace and security.

When at least one of the Security Council’s five permanent members vetoes a resolution, it triggers a General Assembly session automatically.

Al Banai said that the group will “continue coordinating closely with member states in preparation for submitting a new draft resolution” in “recognition of the seriousness of the current threats.”

Oil and gas prices have risen significantly after Iran effectively closed the strait during its war against Israel and the United States. Iranian threats to attack ships in the strait, through which nearly 20% of the world’s oil supply typically passes, have led to major disruptions of global supply chains.

Iran allowed certain vessels through at times charging hefty fees, before Washington recently announced its own blockade of the strait.

The Security Council’s failure to adopt the resolution “sends the wrong message to the world that threats to international waterways can occur without a firm collective response from the international body responsible for maintaining international peace and security,” Al Banai said.

Mike Waltz, U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, told the General Assembly that Washington stands with its Gulf allies “in this time of reckoning.”

The U.S. envoy said it was “truly unfortunate” that China and Russia vetoed the draft resolution. He also said Iran is trying “to take each of your economies hostage.”
Commentary Podcast: Beirut Canal
Contributing editor Jonathan Schanzer joins us on this episode (recorded Thursday night) to discuss whether the announced ceasefire in Lebanon heralds a positive outcome for the region or holds Israel back on the brink of a victory over Hezbollah, and how this connects to the ongoing Iran conflict.


Ben Shapiro: WINNING: Trump CRUSHES Doubters, Opens Strait of Hormuz!
Remember that time President Trump’s critics said he would never be able to pry open the Strait of Hormuz? They’re wrong again. And we’ll explain why… and what comes next.




State of Tel Aviv and Jonathan Conricus: America vs. Iran in the Strait of Hormuz
By midafternoon on Sunday in Israel we were hit with whiplash, again. Every day seems to bring a dramatic new scenario. Just a few days earlier a ceasefire went into effect between the United States and Iran, with hopes pinned on direct talks between the parties, hosted by the President of Pakistan in Islamabad. The opening negotiating session was a marathon 21 hours and ended with no agreement. United States Vice President J.D. Vance pinned responsibility for the failed initiative on Iran, which was intransigent on two key issues: abandoning its ambition to develop nuclear weapons; and their coyness about de-mining the Strait of Hormuz so that the flow of oil and gas to global markets could resume. In response, President Trump unleashed a torrent of social media messages, reinforced with a long phone-in appearance on Fox News explaining the U.S. position and response. “We’re blockading the Strait of Hormuz,” the President said, and then some.

I was fortunate to catch up with State of Tel Aviv and Beyond regular guest, Lt. Col. (Res.) Jonathan Conricus, former IDF spokesperson and senior fellow at FDD, to discuss these developments on Sunday night, Israel time. As you will hear, Conricus believes that the Iranian regime has egregiously miscalculated the resolve of President Trump to end their unilateral bullying and control of the vital shipping route. Iranian leadership has become too accustomed to western governments that are inclined to appease and pander rather than stick to principle. Conricus likens Iran’s conduct to an organized crime syndicate - brazenly resorting to extortion and bullying.

We also discuss the peculiar coverage of this ongoing war by much of the western media. And we touch on the situation in Lebanon, which is very much linked to Iran’s power. So much is in flux and uncertain and the stakes are, as always, very high.






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