Mark Dubowitz and Richard Goldberg: Glimpsing Victory in Iran
As military pressure intensifies, the political dimension becomes increasingly important. Washington is targeting its messaging to IRGC personnel, military officers, and senior officials: Surrender brings amnesty; continued loyalty risks ruin. That logic may already be visible in what appears to be Phase 2. Roughly 3,000 members of an elite protest-suppression unit reportedly received warning messages that they were being targeted. Within a day, their headquarters near Tehran’s Azadi Stadium lay in ruins.Josh Hammer: What is Victory in Operation Epic Fury?
Phase 1 degrades military power and holds hostage the regime’s economic lifelines. Phase 2 raises the cost of repression inside Iran. Drones operating over Tehran have reportedly struck and killed IRGC and Basij personnel manning checkpoint units. For the first time, repression forces may fear for their own survival just as protesters have for years.
Phase 3 could present itself in more ways than sudden collapse—perhaps looking more like sustained erosion: a weakened regime, tightening economic pressure, diplomatic isolation, and eventually internal upheaval. The announced selection of Mojtaba Khamenei as the new supreme leader may accelerate that erosion rather than stabilize it. A polished cleric in the mold of Hassan Rouhani could again provide the IRGC political cover and revive illusions of moderation abroad. Mojtaba offers no such illusion. His elevation signals a harsher, weaker, more corrupt order—and therefore a more fragile one.
Phase 3, however, belongs to the Iranian people. Without sustained American pressure, Mojtaba and the IRGC will declare victory. That cannot be allowed. The regime has always feared domestic unrest more than external attack, which is why it repeatedly shuts down internet access during protests. Restoring connectivity would give Iranians a tool that the regime understands all too well.
Protesters also need the means of self-defense. January’s massacre of more than 30,000 Iranians by regime security forces remains a brutal reminder of what peaceful demonstrators face when confronting a coercive state. The United States should declare its commitment to Iran’s territorial integrity while arming the opposition—not only among Kurdish, Baluchi, and Arab minorities in the periphery, where local resistance could tie down security forces, but also among Persians in major cities.
With continued dominance in the air and deep penetration on the ground, Israel should continue striking the repression apparatus while America supports the political conditions for internal fracture.
The Islamic Republic has survived for 47 years because it has proved adaptive, ruthless, and willing to absorb immense pain. But it has never faced simultaneous leadership decapitation, military degradation, economic strangulation, regional isolation, and internal legitimacy collapse on this scale. That does not guarantee the regime’s end. It does mean that something once improbable is now imaginable: The long arc of the Islamic Republic may finally be bending toward an end. If that happens, military force will have created the opening.
Operation Epic Fury is only two weeks old. The campaign has already delivered major wins for American national security, and more are likely to emerge in coming days. But something much bigger and more historic is starting to come into view—something that can be unlocked with a little more patience from the American public as the United States degrades Tehran’s ability to wage war outside its borders and Israel degrades the regime’s ability to wage war against its own people.
Victory can be defined in many ways when a campaign delivers multiple layers of success in destroying capabilities that threaten the United States. But the ultimate goal should be enabling the Iranian people to rid the world of this radical, terror-sponsoring regime. And achieving that goal—total victory—seems ever more possible.
At this point in the campaign, it is uncontested that wholesale regime change is the most desirable outcome. The pursuit of regime change as a goal unto itself is often now disparaged, coming in the aftermath of the failed neoconservative boondoggles earlier this century. But it ought to be axiomatic that there are some foreign regimes that behave in a manner that redounds to the American national interest, and there are some foreign regimes that behave in a manner that is contrary to the American national interest. It is natural and logical that we would wish for the latter types of regime to be heavily reformed or outright replaced — especially with the local populace leading the way.Mojtaba Khamenei escaped death by seconds in same strike that killed his father
Perhaps even more to the point: One does not take out a 37-year-ruling despot like Ali Khamenei, as the American and Israeli militaries did in the opening hours of the present operation, and not hope for full-scale regime change. Indeed, all people of goodwill should be hoping for that outcome — for the Iranian people to rise up like lions and throw the yoke of tyranny off their necks once and for all, delivering a long-sought victory for the American national interest in the process.
But it’s entirely possible that full-scale regime change won’t happen. The people of Iran just witnessed tens of thousands of their countrymen brutally gunned down during the anti-regime uprisings of late December and early January. They are an unarmed populace facing Nazi-esque regime jackboots, in the form of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Basij paramilitary.
All of that, then, raises one final question: Is it possible for there to be victory in Operation Epic Fury, and for the Iranian regime to be neutralized as a threat to the United States and our interests, if there isn’t full-scale regime change in Tehran?
In theory, the answer is yes. Venezuela provides a model. But in practice, the answer is murkier.
Delcy Rodriguez, the current leader, is a hardened Marxist-Leninist in the mold of her two immediate predecessors, Hugo Chavez and Nicolas Maduro. But Rodriguez has been fully cooperative with the United States since the astonishing January operation to extract Maduro for the simple reason that she has no real choice in the matter: She remains in power, yes, but only on the condition of an “offer” presented by Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio that, to borrow from Vito Corleone in “The Godfather,” she “can’t refuse.” Accordingly, Rodriguez has thus far been fully cooperative in areas such as American oil extraction and the reestablishment of diplomatic relations with the United States.
In theory, a similar arrangement is possible with a decimated, chastened regime in Tehran. And some experts predict that such an arrangement will characterize the regime in Iran a year or two from now. In practice, however, there is the ever-thorny problem that has frustrated and perplexed Westerners for decades when they attempt to reason with zealous Islamists: Radical, 72-virgins-in-heaven-aspiring Muslims do not fear death. A socialist like Rodriguez can, ultimately, be reasoned with; an Islamist like Mojtaba Khamenei (or his successor), probably not.
The cleanest solution to the Iran quagmire at this particular juncture — and the one that most clearly fulfills Trump’s “unconditional surrender” victory criterion — is indeed full-scale regime change. That is certainly the outcome that would be best for the neutralization of the Iranian threat and the corresponding advancement of the American national interest. I’m far from certain it will happen. But every alternative scenario only raises additional questions. So, like many others, I pray that the Iranian people seize this unique moment in history and take their destiny into their own hands.
Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran’s new supreme leader, survived the February 28 US-Israeli strike on Tehran’s leadership compound because he had stepped outside shortly before missiles hit his residence, according to leaked audio obtained by The Telegraph. The recording, attributed to a senior official in the office of the late Ali Khamenei, provides one of the fullest accounts yet of the strike that killed Iran’s former supreme leader and other senior regime figures.
According to the report, the compound was hit at 9:32 a.m. local time in what appeared to be a coordinated attempt to kill members of the Khamenei family and senior Iranian leadership at the same time. The Telegraph said the audio was independently verified and came from remarks delivered by Mazaher Hosseini, identified as head of protocol in Ali Khamenei’s office, during a March 12 meeting in Tehran.
Hosseini said Mojtaba Khamenei had gone into the yard moments before the strike and was heading back upstairs when the building was hit. According to the report, he suffered a leg injury, while his wife, Zahra Haddad-Adel, and their son were killed instantly.
The leaked recording also described the deaths of other people inside the compound, including Mojtaba Khamenei’s brother-in-law, Misbah al-Huda Bagheri Kani, and Mohammad Shirazi, the chief of Ali Khamenei’s military bureau. Hosseini said the strikes hit multiple parts of the office complex simultaneously, including residences associated with several members of the Khamenei family.
Jonathan Sacerdoti: Trump's Grand Strategy
The war unfolding between the U.S., Israel and Iran is not merely a Middle Eastern conflict, but part of a much wider contest over power, ideology and the future balance of the international system. Trump is nobody's fool. Tiny Israel, however formidable, cannot trick or blindside the U.S. into fighting wars against its own interests.Seth Mandel: The ‘War on Terror’ Returns
When two reliable allies reached a moment when their interests, abilities and mutual understanding aligned almost perfectly, coordination becomes not only possible but logical. Both Israel and the U.S. see strategic opportunity and necessity in confronting Iran now. Each grants the other an opportunity they may not have again for decades.
While Israel gains relief from a long-standing existential threat, the U.S. weakens a persistent adversary that has challenged its influence and threatened global trade routes for decades. Iranians themselves gain a unique opportunity to overthrow a brutal theocratic regime that has killed many thousands. Gulf states that quietly fear Iranian hegemony have found themselves aligning with Washington's campaign after Iran lashed out at them.
Demonstrating overwhelming military capability against a regional adversary sends a signal about American resolve and capacity at a moment of delicate great-power diplomacy with China. Iran offers China a useful strategic partner positioned near some of the world's most important maritime choke points. For Washington, weakening Iran serves a broader objective: preventing hostile powers from gaining leverage over critical arteries of global trade.
Trump also appears to see the conflict as a confrontation with a revolutionary regime whose worldview combines militant theology with a willingness to employ barbarity against its enemies and even its own people. It truly threatens the very core of our civilization.
Twenty-five years after 9/11, the West has returned to a point at which terrorists are essentially treated as noncombatants. This is a travesty, and it is also suicidal.Bethany Mandel: We Have to Prepare Against Attacks: Jewish Life in America Today
Without the war-on-terror framing, the only “war” on at the moment is between Iran and the U.S.-Israel alliance, with NATO countries contributing as well. But long before the war came to Iranian territory, Iran had begun the war a thousand miles away. Israel, in fact, had to fight through all those miles of Iran-aligned troops just to get to Iran itself.
The war was started in Israel by the Iran-sponsored-and-directed Hamas, based in Gaza. The second front opened up in the north, with Hezbollah. There were Iranian clients in Syria and proxies in Yemen and in Iraq, which had killed Americans in Jordan.
By the time the U.S. joined strikes on Iran proper, the war that Iran had started had been raging for two years.
It was a war waged by terror proxies. Terrorists who have cover stories, who hide among the civilian population, who militarize homes and shops and the very ground underneath their feet. What appears to have happened in Michigan last week was this: A terrorist tried to murder dozens of Jewish children in America because his terrorist-commander brother was killed in a war he started.
Hamas fighters are very rarely referred to by Western media and politicians as soldiers, but it began the October 7 war with an army of perhaps 40,000 men. Hezbollah itself is a global menace. All of these groups hide among civilians and target civilians, and part of the reason it is so effective is because political and media institutions in the West treat them as civilians.
Terrorism is a different kind of threat from traditional state warfare. It only makes sense to treat it that way. And that means recognizing the war on terror never truly went away, it was merely neglected. That neglect must end
When my children walk into our synagogue, the first person they see is a guard with a gun, standing outside. This is how Jewish life works in America today.For Israelis, There's Nothing Remote about the Danger from Iran
When we sign our kids up for summer camp, preschool or even a holiday program at our synagogue, there is always a line item on the bill labeled "security." When my daughter celebrated her bat mitzvah, we had to pay an extra fee for an armed guard outside the building.
Every now and then, something happens that reminds you exactly why that guard is there.
On Thursday in West Bloomfield, Mich., a man drove a vehicle packed with explosives into Temple Israel, one of the largest reform synagogues in the U.S.
Inside the building, 140 young children attended preschool. The attacker rammed the building and opened fire before he was ultimately stopped by armed security.
A mass-casualty attack was miraculously avoided because of the bravery and fast thinking of the armed guard.
What prevented catastrophe was preparation. Just weeks before the attack, the synagogue had hosted FBI training for staff and security personnel on how to respond to an active shooter.
Jewish institutions operate under a level of threat that most non-Jewish Americans never have to think about.
In Israel, polls show an astounding level of support for the war against Iran, with more than 80% of Israelis backing the war effort. That includes the entire political spectrum. A poll by the Israel Democracy Institute found that 93% of Israeli Jews - including 76% of self-identified leftists - support the war.
Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid told the Economist, "I have fairly earned the title of 'Netanyahu's fiercest political rival'....Yet on this military campaign, I stand behind the government and behind the operation in Iran. Why? Because this is not political - it is existential."
Most Americans view Iran as a distant, theoretical threat. Yes, Iran is a major sponsor of terrorism, it has tried to develop nuclear weapons, has funded terrorist proxies, killed Americans around the world, helped Russia kill Ukrainians, and built alliances with repressive dictatorships across the globe. But that's all far away.
For Israelis, there's nothing theoretical or remote about the danger. Israelis have listened to Iranian leaders for decades declare their intention to wipe Israel off the map and saw them install a clock in Tehran with a countdown to Israel's destruction. They have watched as Tehran built a paramilitary ring of fire around Israel with Iran-created and/or sponsored proxy militias, terrorist groups openly committed to Israel's destruction, launching thousands of rocket attacks, culminating in the Oct. 7, 2023, assault by Iran-funded Hamas.
Against this backdrop, Iran has been enriching uranium to a level that serves no other purpose than for building nuclear weapons, while developing an arsenal of missiles in preparation to take on Israel.
This year this holiday has special meaning.
— Prime Minister of Israel (@IsraeliPM) March 16, 2026
Celebrate it with your friends, your family, your loved ones.
I take this opportunity to wish you a happy Nowruz - a year of freedom.
A new beginning of hope to all of you, my dear friends.
نوروز پیروز پاینده ایران.
Iran war shows how ‘human rights’ groups now just play vile politics
Several organizations suggest that Israel’s confrontation with Iran is a tool to distract from a “genocide” against Palestinians.Jonathan Sacerdoti: Britain can learn from Trump’s moral clarity over Iran
Others claim the war is designed to eliminate Palestinian “resistance.”
No matter what happens in the Middle East, from Syria to Lebanon to Iran, the narrative circles back to the same propaganda.
And then there is the NGOs’ favorite rhetorical device: selective application of international law.
Statements warning about the erosion of the “rules-based order” appear almost instantly whenever Israel uses force.
Yet the same urgency has rarely been applied to Iran’s violations, including missile attacks, proxy warfare, and sponsorship of terrorist operations around the world.
Remember, over the past year, Iran experienced an enormous civil unrest.
Beginning in late 2025, demonstrations erupted across dozens of cities as Iranian citizens demanded political freedom and an end to government repression.
Iranian forces responded brutally, opening fire on demonstrators, carrying out mass arrests, and imposing sweeping internet blackouts to chill dissent and hide the violence.
Yet as ordinary Iranians paid with their lives for pursuing basic freedoms, the global NGO protest machine was largely mute.
No massive international mobilizations, no sustained campaigns dominating headlines, no clamor about international law. Just silence.
Now, as Iran faces accountability for its crimes, many of these organizations have suddenly rediscovered their outrage. Yet that outrage continues to flow in only one direction.
Their obvious double standards leave once-respected NGOs with a crisis of credibility.
When Iran kills its own people, the NGO world goes mute; when Israel defends itself against that same murderous regime, the megaphones come out.
That’s not human-rights advocacy. It’s anti-West, anti-Israel activism.
Yet if the Islamic Republic eventually collapses under the pressure of this confrontation, Britain may discover that its restraint looked less like prudence and more like absence. Much of Europe has spent years attempting to restrain or obstruct the very actions now weakening Tehran’s power, often in the name of diplomacy or stability. In practice this frequently preserved a regime whose ambitions openly threaten the West.Survey: Post-Oct. 7 support for Israel wanes among Democrats, younger voters
Britain itself has direct cause for concern. The Islamic Republic has issued fatwas against our authors, seized our sailors, imprisoned our citizens, sponsored attacks against our own Jewish citizens, and financed terrorist networks throughout the Middle East and beyond. Its ideology declares its mission global. It seeks the destruction of Israel and openly proclaims hostility toward the United States and the societies aligned with it. Its ideology presents its mission as global. Its eschatological vision of chaos and world domination drives its dangerous insanity.
When that regime eventually falls, whether through military defeat, internal collapse or the accumulated pressure of both, history will record who pursued its weakening and who joined it in celebration of its continued existence at its London embassy. The United States and Israel have chosen confrontation. Much of Europe has chosen hesitation, negotiation and distance.
And while its downfall could benefit us all regardless of our own level of involvement, our enemies will see who faltered when it mattered, noting where to try again in future. The defence of liberty does more than secure it; it renews belief in it. When it comes to defending freedom, those who work reap the harvest, while the idle suffer hunger.
For decades Western policymakers comforted themselves with the belief that Tehran’s rulers were rational actors who could be moderated through negotiation, sanctions relief or gradual integration into the international system. That assumption shaped policy for a generation. The war now unfolding may finally bury that illusion.
In its place should come a rediscovery of moral clarity: the ability to recognise the difference between good and evil, civilisation and barbarity, and the knowledge that our freedoms never come for free. The United States has shown a renewed willingness to speak that language. The rest of the West would do well to remember it.
American goodwill toward Israel following the Hamas-led terrorist attacks in southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, has eroded with a new poll showing a plurality of U.S. voters now view the Jewish state negatively.
An NBC News survey released on Monday found 39% of registered voters hold an unfavorable opinion of Israel, compared with 32% who view it positively. In November 2023, shortly after the Hamas assault, 47% expressed positive views and 24% negative ones.
“Israel may have had major military success in its war against Hamas, but its actions have badly damaged its standing among the American people,” stated Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates, which conducted the survey jointly with Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies.
The shift has been driven largely by Democrats, independents and younger voters. Among Democrats, positive views of Israel fell from a 47%–24% advantage in 2023 to a 37%–32% negative split in the latest poll. Likewise, independent voters, who backed Israel by 40%–22% in 2023, now view the Jewish state negatively, 48%–21%.
Republican support declined more modestly, from a 63%–12% favorable margin in 2023 to 54%–18% in 2026.
Generational divides were pronounced. Just 20% of voters ages 18 to 34 now view Israel positively, down from 26% in 2023, while negative views surged to 63% from 37%. Voters ages 35 to 49 also turned net-negative for the first time, at 43% unfavorable to 20% favorable, compared with a narrow 34%–33% pro-Israel tilt three years ago.
Among voters ages 50 to 64, negative views roughly doubled, though the group still leaned positive overall at 37% favorable to 30% unfavorable, compared with 59%–15% in 2023. Seniors 65 and older likewise remained broadly supportive but less so than before, shifting from 64%–12% positive views in 2023 to 55%–21% today.
Republicans are ~the same here as they were in 2013, which is why it's incredibly confusing that so many on social media think it's strategically essential for Republicans to rush headlong towards the 13% https://t.co/nPGKz5R7Ql pic.twitter.com/umLTrWrYb2
— Charles Fain Lehman (@CharlesFLehman) March 16, 2026
Trump ‘not happy’ with UK as Starmer refuses to be drawn into ‘wider Middle East war’
Donald Trump has admitted he is “not happy” with the UK over its refusal to immediately send military reinforcements to the Strait of Hormuz, after Keir Starmer insisted this country would not be dragged into a “wider war” in the Middle East.
The US president insisted,”Some [countries] are very enthusiastic about it, and some aren’t,” as he spoke about proposals for the Strait at the White House.
“Some are countries that we’ve helped for many, many years,” he added. “We’ve protected them from horrible outside sources, and they weren’t that enthusiastic. And the level of enthusiasm matters to me.”
At a press conference at Downing Street, the PM said the UK, which is considering sending ships and mine-hunting drones to the Middle East, was working with allies on a “viable plan” to reopen shipping lanes.
“While taking the necessary action to defend ourselves and our allies, we will not be drawn into the wider war,” he said. “We will keep working towards a swift resolution that brings security and stability back to the region and stops the Iranian threat to its neighbours.”
It was notable that Trump did not name the countries that will participate in any operation on the Strait.
But Trump only expressed anger at Starmer’s response.
“Two weeks ago I said ‘why don’t you send some ships over’, and he [Keir Starmer] really didn’t want to do it,” he said.
“Then they tell us that we have a mine ship around, and they don’t want to do it. I think it’s terrible,” Trump added. “We requested two aircraft carriers, which they have, and he didn’t really want to do it.”
“I was not happy with the UK,” he said. “I think they’ll be involved maybe, but they should be involved enthusiastically.”
Joint statement by 🇬🇧 + 🇸🇦 🇦🇪 🇧🇭 🇰🇼 🇶🇦 🇴🇲 sets the predicate for joint collective action in the Strait of Hormuz. This is how coalitions are formed. https://t.co/oLIwYAWVr7 pic.twitter.com/xmobxOtM6L
— Brett McGurk (@brett_mcgurk) March 15, 2026
Update from CENTCOM Commander on Operation Epic Fury: pic.twitter.com/oGJ3QJBz5o
— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) March 16, 2026
Operation Epic Fury: March 16th Update pic.twitter.com/BjaySOYPe1
— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) March 16, 2026
UK joins allies in warning Israel against Lebanon ground assault
The UK has backed a joint statement suggesting a “significant Israeli ground offensive” in Lebanon must be averted to avoid “devastating humanitarian consequences and could lead to a protracted conflict” in the Middle East.
In a statement also signed by the leaders of Canada, France, Germany and Italy, the five countries warned that “Hezbollah’s attacks on Israel and the targeting of civilians must cease and they must disarm.”
It added: “We condemn Hezbollah’s decision to join Iran in hostilities, which further jeopardises regional peace and security.”
But in a move confirmed shortly after another often bizarre press conference by Donald Trump from the White House, the leaders of the five countries said: “A significant Israeli ground offensive would have devastating humanitarian consequences and could lead to a protracted conflict. It must be averted.
“The humanitarian situation in Lebanon, including ongoing mass displacement, is already deeply alarming.
“We reiterate our call for the full implementation of UNSC Resolution 1701 by all parties and support the efforts of the Government of Lebanon to disarm Hezbollah, prohibit Hezbollah’s military activities, and curb their armed hostilities. We stand in solidarity with the Lebanese government and people, who have been unwillingly drawn into conflict.”
The statement said the countries support efforts by the Lebanese government to disarm the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah.
WATCH 🔴
— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) March 16, 2026
Footage shows a U.S. C-RAM successfully intercepting incoming fire targeting the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad. pic.twitter.com/Vwv8eoXy7T
More footage shows a U.S. C-RAM taking down a drone over Baghdad tonight. pic.twitter.com/U1wB3vIYQm
— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) March 17, 2026
Reports of Breakdown within Iran's Security Forces
A source inside Iran has revealed that the state's most brutal security forces are not only penetrated by enemy services and in disarray - they are turning on each other. "More than 60 incidents have been documented across virtually every branch of the regime's military and security apparatus, spanning multiple regions simultaneously."6,000 Revolutionary Guards Killed in Iran War
"There are many reports of IRGC soldiers being executed for desertion. It's happening constantly. IRGC leaders are also regularly executing subordinates for refusing to carry out orders." At the same time, bodies of regime officials showing signs of torture have been turning up dumped in streets and other public places. The victims come from across Iran's security apparatus. Opposition groups are believed to be responsible for some of the killings.
Even Iranian missile teams are penetrated, with their equipment reportedly breaking down mysteriously. Authorities suspect sabotage and the incidents are followed by investigations, arrest - and yet more executions. Paranoia is at an all-time high.
Another growing source of chaos is the regime's failure to pay its thugs. Across Iran, soldiers and security personnel have reportedly threatened to abandon their posts after months of unpaid salaries and pensions. "When the smoke clears, people will be surprised at how degraded the regime's machinery of terror is. It's only a matter of time before it starts breaking down. No one seems to understand just how much trouble the regime is now in," the source concluded.
Over 6,000 members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) have been killed, and about 15,000 have been wounded since the start of Operations Roaring Lion and Epic Fury, according to IDF intelligence.
"Senior officials are being pursued," a senior military official told Walla. "They are deleting and erasing posts on X/Twitter."
He added that Iran's firing at Turkey and Azerbaijan is "unclear," but is a sign of further problems between the political echelon and those operating on the ground.
The official added that the "hunting" and targeted eliminations of senior regime figures have led to significant pressure and confusion for those in leadership positions.
According to him, even the statement made by Mojtaba Khamenei on Thursday raised questions about the new supreme leader's health, as "if he wasn’t injured, he would have been photographed, he would have gone outside." A schoolgirl holds up a poster of Iran's new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei during an anti-US and Israel demonstration in Baghdad on March 12, 2026. Air strikes killed at least nine Iran-backed fighters in Iraq on March 12 near the Iraqi-Syrian border, two senior security officials told AFP.
Israeli Ambassador Danny Danon on Lebanon tensions:
— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) March 16, 2026
“Lebanon must restrain Hezbollah now, or we will.” pic.twitter.com/oDFYmFabdm
IDF Estimates Fighting in Lebanon Will Last Weeks
A senior military official in the IDF Northern Command said, "The expectation is that the war in the north and the efforts to eliminate and strike Hizbullah could last for weeks." The IDF's plan is to exploit the campaign against the "head of the octopus" - Iran - and once a significant portion of its objectives is achieved, to turn to severing the "arms of the octopus" - Hizbullah.Security commander of Iraq’s Kataeb Hezbollah said killed in airstrike
The IDF says the concept is forward defense, under which Israeli forces push the fighting into enemy territory. The goal is to allow normal life to return as quickly as possible to Israel's border communities that will not be evacuated and to conduct the fighting inside southern Lebanon. Israeli forces are currently operating at a depth of 7-9 km. inside Lebanese territory.
An officer in the Lebanon border sector said Hizbullah is using UN peacekeeping forces as a "human shield," launching rockets at IDF forces from near UNIFIL positions. UNIFIL's mandate is set to expire at the end of 2026.
Iraq’s powerful armed group Kataeb Hezbollah said Monday that its senior security commander, Abu Ali al-Askari, had been killed, without providing details on the circumstances of his death.
The group’s leader, Ahmad al-Hamidawi, also known as Abu Hussein al-Hamidawi, said, “We announce the martyrdom of Haj Abu Ali al-Askari,” without providing any further details.
A security official told AFP that “Abu Ali al-Askari is Abu Ali al-Amiri, the commander who was killed in a strike on Baghdad on Saturday.”
Kataeb Hezbollah referred to Askari as the group’s security chief. He was also the spokesperson in charge of issuing all key statements in the group’s name. The last was released on March 7, following the killing of Iran’s supreme leader.
According to the group’s statement, Askari will be replaced by Abou Moujahed al-Assaf as the new security chief.
The Iran-backed group, designated by Washington as a terrorist organization, is part of the umbrella movement known as the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, which has been claiming daily attacks on the US interests in Iraq and the region.
Since the start of the current war in Iran, several attacks targeting members of those groups across Iraq have been blamed on the US and Israel. Israel is not believed to be carrying out any strikes within Iraq, but US forces have hit targets there, as Iran-backed militias have been targeting US and Kurdish sites in the country. Former hostage Elizabeth Tsurkov is greeted by family and friends at Sheba Medical Center on September 10, 2025. (Yuval Yosef/GPO)
Kataeb Hezbollah was the group responsible for kidnapping Israeli Elizabeth Tsurkov in Baghdad in March 2023, and held her hostage until she was released in September 2025.
Destruction of a weapons depot and seizure of Hezbollah terrorist organization’s weapons. pic.twitter.com/212aKZOTNB
— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) March 16, 2026
The eliminated Hamas cell gets ready, get into the Toyota, start driving — and are eliminated. pic.twitter.com/0dZNcTYLtc
— Amit Segal (@AmitSegal) March 16, 2026
Cluster munitions is a central campaign for Human Rights Watch. A search of its website for this term returns 1,019 results. The org regularly calls for a “global ban on cluster munitions”. >> pic.twitter.com/YQGLvibP28
— NGO Monitor (@NGOmonitor) March 15, 2026
Don’t worry. @HRW still has time to go after Israel for specific weaponry that it doesn’t like. In a March 8 press release, it accused 🇮🇱 of illegally using white phosphorus in Lebanon. This was part of a broader campaign against 🇮🇱 self-defense, that included lobbying “Israel’s… pic.twitter.com/zbn2D9ij7s
— NGO Monitor (@NGOmonitor) March 15, 2026
@HRW has a long history of selective advocacy reflecting its extreme anti-Israel bias. Allegations against Israel trigger intense campaigning, lobbying and legal initiatives. But near silence when Israelis, and Jews, are the victims.
— NGO Monitor (@NGOmonitor) March 15, 2026
More on HRW in our research:…
The Iranian regime and its Lebanese proxy Hezbollah are targeting civilians.
— Israel Foreign Ministry (@IsraelMFA) March 16, 2026
Burning cars. Collapsing buildings. Wounded civilians. Injured children and animals.
This is the reality of their attacks on Israel. pic.twitter.com/TqY84N569l
The impact in Nahariya wounded three people.
— Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian (@manniefabian) March 16, 2026
Magen David Adom says it treated a woman aged 53 and two girls aged 16 and 18 with signs of smoke inhalation, after a fire was caused by the impact.
At another impact site, near Kibbutz Kabri, a man in his 40s is listed in…
There are only two scenarios in which they will mention it:
— AP (@Average_NY_Guy) March 16, 2026
1. If it was an Israeli missile/fragments that hit it by mistake.
2. If they can call it an Israeli false flag.
Other than that, you can wait until Mashiach before they ever mention it. https://t.co/izVs4fg9u2
This map of Jerusalem shows a black rectangle marking the Temple Mount, the site of the Dome of the Rock. The red dots indicate the approximate locations of Iranian missile impacts in Israel’s capital over the past two weeks. Could the IRGC actually be trying to hit Al Aqsa in… pic.twitter.com/CzNP8iCF5h
— Saul Sadka (@Saul_Sadka) March 16, 2026
Watch: The Iranian regime just fired at the Church of the Holy Sepulchre in the Old City of Jerusalem pic.twitter.com/JqSlp0vneI
— Oren Marmorstein (@OrenMarmorstein) March 16, 2026
Missile debris that fell in Safed today (Photo: Safed Municipality) pic.twitter.com/ek1GOJ6Gsm
— Amit Segal (@AmitSegal) March 16, 2026
Straight onto the car: footage of a fall in the Jewish Quarter in Jerusalem pic.twitter.com/oMpa0wGscc
— Amit Segal (@AmitSegal) March 16, 2026
Ben Shapiro praises Trump’s Iran strikes as ‘single bravest foreign policy move of my lifetime’
Ben Shapiro praised President Donald Trump’s military campaign against Iran as a historic turning point in U.S. foreign policy on Saturday, calling the operation "the single bravest foreign policy move of my lifetime" while arguing the Iranian regime is now in its "death throes."Ben Shapiro: This could be a GAME CHANGER
"What you're watching him [Trump] do in Iran is not only unprecedented in terms of its political courage. I think that it is and has the potential to be a true game changer for America's role in the world, not only for the next 10 or 20 years, but for the coming century," Shapiro told Lara Trump on "My View."
"What he is doing is he's reasserting American authority in the world… He's reinvigorating a vision of America [that's] strong on the world stage, and he understands that on an innate, gut level," Shapiro said.
Shapiro said the president's foreign policy approach has always been rooted in the "peace through strength" principle he espouses, adding that the "best way" to achieve peace is to make U.S. adversaries realize an iron fist rests inside the velvet glove.
"You actually have to throw your enemies off their game," Shapiro said.
"You actually have to make the hard decisions that make your opponents understand that they cannot cross us."
Call me Back Podcast: Iran’s Economic Warfare
In a Call me Back bonus episode, we’re publishing this week’s episode of Ark Media podcast What’s Your Number, co-hosted by Yonatan Adiri and Yael Wissner-Levy. This week, despite recording between air-raid sirens and shelter runs, Yael and Yonatan break down Iran’s emerging strategy of economic warfare. Instead of matching Israel and the U.S. militarily, Iran appears to be targeting global pressure points—oil and gas infrastructure, fertilizer supply chains, financial hubs, AI data centers, and the Strait of Hormuz—to drive up global costs and force political pressure. The question: can this strategy actually move markets and reshape the conflict?
In this episode:
00:00 - Numbers of the Week
05:00 - The WYNDEX
09:00 - Big Short #1: Lebanon signals a shift on Hezbollah
11:30 - Big Short #2: Israel’s budget politics and coalition stability
14:00 - Long Play: Iran’s economic warfare and the global energy stakes
38:40 - Words of the Week
Gamblers trying to win a bet on Polymarket are vowing to kill me if I don’t rewrite an Iran missile story
On Tuesday, March 10, a massive explosion shook the city of Beit Shemesh, just outside Jerusalem, in yet another Iranian ballistic missile attack during the ongoing war.
Rescue services scrambled to the scene in search of possible casualties, though as it turned out, the projectile had struck a forested area just outside the city, around 500 meters from homes.
On The Times of Israel’s liveblog that day, I reported that the missile had hit an open area and no injuries were caused, citing the rescue services, as well as footage that emerged showing the massive explosion caused by the missile’s warhead.
But what I thought was a seemingly minor incident during the war has turned into days of harassment and death threats against me.
The saga begins
Later Tuesday, I received an unusual email, in Hebrew, from someone named Aviv.
“Regarding your Times of Israel report that described today’s launch as an ‘impact’ — Beit Shemesh Municipality and MDA (Magen David Adom) later corrected their reports to clarify that what fell was an interceptor fragment, not a full missile,” he claimed.
“I’d appreciate it if you could update your article, as in its current form it does not reflect reality. Alternatively, if you have information that it was indeed a full missile that was not intercepted, I would be glad to be corrected.”
I told Aviv that, from what I know from the Israeli military, the impact outside Beit Shemesh was indeed a missile warhead and not just fragments.
I added: “The footage also shows a massive explosion of hundreds of kilograms of explosives from the warhead. Normally, a fragment does not produce such an explosion.”
On Kuwaiti TV, an expert was asked who threatens Kuwait more: Israel or Iran.
— Israel Foreign Ministry (@IsraelMFA) March 16, 2026
His clear answer: Iran.
The Iranian regime bombs its neighbors, targets civilian infrastructure, fuels violence and instability, and arms terror proxies across the region. pic.twitter.com/kPeUlqncG9
Iranians in the UK blast a new hit song cheering on the death of Khamenei as they dance with the Cardboard Ayatollah. 🎶📦💃🏻
— The Persian Jewess (@persianjewess) March 16, 2026
pic.twitter.com/VExKl7pQEl
‘For the victims of Epstein Island’: Iran’s propaganda machine in overdrive
A man in Iran holding up a fake placard saying: 'We will defeat Epstein's agents' Regime-linked news outlets have shared imagery, much of which appears be doctored, portraying the war as a fight against Jeffrey Epstein’s allies‘Haaretz’ calls ruthless Iranian regime official ‘brilliant philosopher’
Hundreds of American soldiers have been captured across the Persian Gulf. US military bases throughout the region lie in ruins. Benjamin Netanyahu is dead or gravely wounded.
Washington officials are begging for a ceasefire while the US loses control of a war that will not end until Iran says so.
Relentless Iranian missile strikes are smashing Israel while enemies plead for mercy, and the US strike groups are rendered non-functional and forced to retreat after being hit with missiles.
This is the war as it is seen and heard on Iranian state media, the only source available to millions of people living under fire.
During a near-total communications blackout that has cut internet access, the majority of Iranians are getting their information about the war from state media.
Persian-language satellite news channels broadcasting from outside Iran have also been jammed and people who use satellite internet devices are being arrested.
What they are hearing bears limited resemblance to the war documented by human rights groups, Western media and the social media posts that occasionally break through the information blockade.
For a window into the propaganda machine, The Telegraph spent much of the last two weeks tuning into Iranian state television’s war coverage.
For several hours on Friday, the semi-official Tasnim news agency reported that Mr Netanyahu had been killed or seriously wounded in an Iranian strike.
State broadcasts spoke of the daring capture of US soldiers and airmen, with reports about shooting down a US jet every other day and a drone every other hour.
Israel’s far-left Haaretz daily ran an article on Saturday describing Iran’s Ali Larijani, believed to be responsible for ordering the killings of thousands of protesters earlier this year, as a “brilliant philosopher.”
The almost 5,000-word profile written by Haaretz‘s Gid’on Lev said Larijani’s writings, including on the Enlightenment philosopher Immanuel Kant, “reveal an elusive and multifaceted figure.”
Lev describes the top Iranian official as a “cool-headed politician” and a “brilliant thinker,” calling his arguments “genuinely thought-provoking.”
Larijani has long been a senior figure in Tehran’s power structure and currently serves as secretary of its Supreme National Security Council, which has the final say over security policies, including the nuclear program.
The Trump administration sanctioned Larijani on Jan. 15, accusing him of coordinating the Islamic Republic’s response to protests and calling for its security forces to use force against peaceful demonstrators.
Arsen Ostrovsky, an Israeli-Australian human rights lawyer who heads the Australia/Israel & Jewish Affairs Council’s Sydney branch, accused Haaretz in an X post of becoming “more pro-Iran than the IRGC.”
In 2024, the Israeli government declared its intention to “sever all advertising ties” with Haaretz and called on all “branches, ministries, bodies, and likewise, all government corporations or entities funded by it, not to engage with the Haaretz newspaper in any way whatsoever.”
The impetus for the Nov. 24, 2024, Cabinet decision were statements made around a month earlier by Haaretz publisher Amos Schocken.
On Oct. 27, 2024, at a London conference organized by the newspaper, Schocken referred to Palestinian terrorists as “freedom fighters,” called for sanctions against Israel, accused Jerusalem of imposing apartheid rule on Arabs and claimed the IDF was carrying out ethnic cleansing.
Shiite Scholar Usama Abdulghani at Dearborn Quds Day Rally: You Once Heeded the Call of Imam Khomeini, Then the “Martyr” Khamenei, Now You Heed the Call of Imam Mojtaba Khamenei pic.twitter.com/Jqthz1oFwr
— MEMRI (@MEMRIReports) March 16, 2026
At NYC Al-Quds Day Rally Protesters Chant: “U.S.A., Go to Hell!,” “Khamenei Is the Leader,” “Death to Israel,” “Stop Eating Babies,” Praise Sinwar, Nasrallah, IRGC, and Houthis, Call on Iran and Hizbullah to Strike Tel Aviv pic.twitter.com/A2tYmEMgrW
— MEMRI (@MEMRIReports) March 16, 2026
British Imam Shakeel Begg: Epstein and His Elites Are “Devils on Earth,” but We Have Devils Too — All Communities Suffer from Child Sexual Abuse; British-Born Muslims Are Better Than Those from Muslim Countries, Less Prejudiced and Racist pic.twitter.com/BEUYiclLnw
— MEMRI (@MEMRIReports) March 16, 2026
Ali Khamenei’s Advisor and Fmr. IRGC Commander-in-Chief General Yahya Rahim-Safavi: Iran Maintains Strong Relations with China and Russia, Receives Satellite Reports on U.S. Aircraft and Fleet Movements pic.twitter.com/59Ubofet6x
— MEMRI (@MEMRIReports) March 16, 2026
Andrey Kartapolov, Chairman of the Russian State Duma Defense Committee: We Pray for Iran and Its Victory; Iran Was an Empire When American Indians Were Running Around with Hand Axes and Jews Were Mere Goat Herders; Iran and Russia Can Open New Caspian Transport Routes pic.twitter.com/EdaAdt25up
— MEMRI (@MEMRIReports) March 16, 2026
Live on Sky News today, I raised concerns about reports that officials from @Keir_Starmer government, members of the UK Foreign Office, and journalists including the international affairs editor of Sky News, attended a celebration at the Iranian Embassy in London marking the… pic.twitter.com/NpTUz7dEqT
— Masih Alinejad 🏳️ (@AlinejadMasih) March 16, 2026
If this is what @SkyNews' Lisa Holland takes away from running for cover during a missile attack on Tel Aviv, then we need to explain a few things:
— HonestReporting (@HonestReporting) March 16, 2026
1⃣ Iran’s goal IS to cause large-scale casualties
2⃣ The fact that it doesn’t achieve that aim is entirely because of Israel’s… pic.twitter.com/CESsO2MomU
This is genuinely wonderful. But my heart goes out to the other players forced to go back to Iran because of the severity of threats made to their families by the regime. https://t.co/sqmBwTFv95
— Omid Djalili (@omid9) March 16, 2026
SOME POSITIVE NEWS:
— 𝐍𝐢𝐨𝐡 𝐁𝐞𝐫𝐠 🇮🇷 ✡︎ (@NiohBerg) March 16, 2026
Iranian football players Fatemeh Pasandideh and Atefeh Ramezanizadeh have not only settled well in Australia - they're already training with the Brisbane Roar FC.
Notice how their headscarves are immediately gone when given the choice.
Awesome to see. 🇮🇷🇦🇺 pic.twitter.com/TofQlfzdEu
Why is @reuters intentionally misrepresenting the statements of two Iranian directors at the Oscars last night?
— The Persian Jewess (@persianjewess) March 16, 2026
These directors can’t get in touch with their families because the Islamic Regime has cut off internet access since January to silence Iranian voices.
But Reuters… https://t.co/4eZ5dbx9K3
You have to ask what's really going on when a former NYT/WaPo technology reporter is promoting wartime propaganda of a US enemy. pic.twitter.com/bTemZKGItg
— Ashley Rindsberg (@AshleyRindsberg) March 16, 2026
Here is the full clip in context.
— AG (@AGHamilton29) March 16, 2026
So ask yourself why accounts like @atrupar and @AFpost would intentionally lie about what is being discussed… pic.twitter.com/ykU3yzkFsR
BREAKING - New analysis of “comic” Dave Smith’s viral post, in which he justifies Islamist attacks on America, shows that roughly 90 to 95% of the accounts reposting it are foreign or radical Islamist accounts. pic.twitter.com/40dJC5pwh6
— Right Angle News Network (@Rightanglenews) March 16, 2026
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"He's an Anti-Zionist Too!" cartoon book (December 2024) PROTOCOLS: Exposing Modern Antisemitism (February 2022) |
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