The carrier strike group U.S.S. Abraham Lincoln is expected to arrive “in theater” today or tomorrow.U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to return from the Davos conference today (Friday), placing him in Washington in time for the weekend.The biggest clue: two days ago, the United States significantly increased its deployment of aerial refueling aircraft in the region. Due to their high maintenance costs and vulnerability while on the ground, such aircraft are usually deployed only in the final days before a strike, making this an especially meaningful signal. Aerial refuters are not typically used for mere misdirection due to the aforementioned cost and vulnerability.
My question is, what can the US practically do to help the protesters? Trump is not going to engage in a long war. What can be done with surgical airstrikes?
This becomes complicated by timing. The protests have mostly ended because of the brutality of the crackdown. It is unclear if anything the US can do will re-energize the protesters.
I don't believe the people who say that an attack would put the Iranian people on the regime's side. They are not that shortsighted. But, again, what can be done?
There would be some gain by attacking the IRGC buildings, which would make it harder for them to crack down on protesters. But I see a lot of the possibilities as being indirect or psychological - try to get the IRGC members to defect or refuse to enforce directions, which may be why Iran imported outside enforcers.
I think that whatever is done should be done together with a major cyber attack to disrupt communications and coordination.
Things are heating up.
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