The Council on American Islamic Relations (CAIR) issued a final pre-election poll on November 1 showing a slight lead for Green Party candidate Jill Stein over Kamala Harris among registers American Muslim voters.
This virtual tie between Harris and Stein was seen in their earlier polls as well.
So how did Muslims end up voting? It wasn't anything close to the poll.
According to the Fox News exit polls, among Muslims, Harris got 63% compared to Trump's 32%, with all others at 4%.
According to AP's exit polls, 61% of Muslims voted for Harris and 30% for Trump. Stein could not have gotten more than 9%.
Why did CAIR get it so completely wrong?
CAIR described their polling methodology in their August survey:
The LLC has no Internet presence. It has not done any surveys besides for CAIR that I can find.
Jihad Watch looked at Mo Maraqa in September and found that he was the head of three other shady companies, all of which have no Internet presence. One is "American Third Pillar Charities, " another is "Jasmine LLC." The third is called, no kidding, "ISIS Research Group."
The address for all of them is an apartment house in Washington DC.
Maraqa was a panelist at Arabcon in Dearborn in September at an Election Strategy Session - along with Linda Sarsour. He also led a session called "Empowering American Voters to Advocate for Palestinian Human Rights."
Maraqa is also involved with the American-Arab Anti-Discrimination Committee, and Molitico jointly created an initiative called "Arab.Vote" with the ADC and CAIR.
From everything we can see, Molitico is a one person operation whose polling techniques are provably unreliable, yet its only member is prominent in the Arab community. Maraqa's creation of multiple organizations, and his claims of being involved with several more, indicate that he is a scammer.
But are CAIR and the ADC in on the scams? Is it possible that CAIR hired a polling firm without any track record whose address is an residential apartment? Or did they choose a company of someone they knew and not care at all about accuracy?
Even if we assume that the poll itself is what Molitico says it is, it is inherently a bad poll. Molitico says the survey was done via SMS messages to tens of thousands of Muslim voters. It only received 1,500 responses. Which means that the poll is worthless - only people who want to respond are counted, and people who respond to SMS polls do not represent the electorate at all. It is a self-selecting sample, and any pollster worth their salt would never create such a poorly designed poll.
But a poll like that could be done by a single person, as opposed to legitimate polls that require teams of people.
Today, at 10 AM, CAIR will announce their own exit poll and analysis. Almost certainly, Mo Maraqa is the one behind the exit polls. It will be interesting to see what happens.
UPDATE: The live video of the exit poll analysis seems to have been scrapped. As of 10:15, it cannot be found on the Facebook site they pointed to.
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