Excerpts:
Hezbollah’s Military Forces Are Failing in LebanonLebanese Hezbollah is attempting to obfuscate the reality that its military forces in southern Lebanon are disorganized and conducting ineffective military operations against the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). Hezbollah’s military forces have been badly damaged and disrupted by Israeli military action. Israeli forces entered Lebanon on October 1 to destroy Hezbollah’s ability to threaten northern Israeli communities. The operation has so far successfully destroyed and disrupted many of the capabilities required for Hezbollah to threaten northern Israel. Hezbollah is attempting to present itself as a competent, confident military organization, but it has so far failed to effectively execute any major military campaign at scale. Hezbollah’s degradation and severe disruption is likely temporary, however, and the group can reconstitute if Israeli operations end soon.Hezbollah likely planned to execute one of several possible tactical tasks in response to an Israeli ground operation:Hezbollah could have decided to defend key infrastructure or Shia towns along the border. A defending force aggressively seeks to hold ground or destroy the attacking force. Hezbollah would presumably decisively engage its combat forces and employ more sophisticated tactics in a defense were it executing a defense effectively. Hezbollah has engaged Israeli forces, but it has not conducted any sophisticated multi-stage ambushes. Hezbollah has instead relied upon rocket and mortar shelling to harass Israeli positions. Rockets and mortars cannot defend ground alone, and would need to be combined with infantry to effectively defend against Israeli attacks. These rocket and mortar attacks also are not limiting the IDF’s ability to maneuver on the battlefield or causing the IDF to change its overall scheme of maneuver. Coordinating between infantry forces and artillery is a difficult command-and-control task that may not be possible given the current state of Hezbollah’s communications and command network.A force conducting an orderly withdrawal evacuates or destroys its supplies to prevent the attacking force from capturing them. Hezbollah did not evacuate even its most prized, high-end supplies, like Kornet anti-tank missile launchers or night-vision goggles, instead allowing these supplies to fall into Israeli hands.Criticisms directed at the IDF’s slow pace of operations ignore Israeli operational design and lessons learned in the Gaza Strip. Some Lebanese officials implied that the Israeli operation is failing because IDF forces have not penetrated deep into Lebanon. The IDF’s slow movement is a deliberate choice designed to root out and destroy Hezbollah tunnel infrastructure methodically. This approach was presumably derived from a lesson learned in the Gaza Strip, where after a relatively rapid armored assault, the IDF slowed its pace of operations and began methodically reentering areas and ripping out subterranean and above-ground infrastructure.Israeli forces will need to undertake additional activities to maintain Hezbollah’s degradation and disruption, but current Israeli tactical and operational efforts appear to have routed Hezbollah units at least in the immediate border area. Hezbollah’s degradation and severe disruption is temporary, however, and the group will recover absent sufficient Israeli pressure. If Israeli air operations targeting Hezbollah forces and commanders behind the lines slacken—due either to an IDF decision to prioritize close air support or to a political decision to slow strikes—Hezbollah will be able to reorganize, refit, and become more effective. Persistent IDF airstrikes combined with the IDF’s advances are likely disrupting reorganization efforts, however.
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