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Wednesday, October 02, 2024

Iran's attack proves it is a dysfunctional, unprofessional mess - and that is perhaps the scariest part



This video of some of the missiles shot from Iran towards Israel was reportedly taken from a British Airways flight to Dubai.


At 0:26, you see a large flash. Which looks a lot like one of the ballistic missiles exploded soon after launch.

Iran is proud of its domestic arms industry. But this looks more like a ballistic version of Hamas' home manufactured rockets - of which some 10% tend to fail - than the type of weapon you can export. 

The video shows another shocking piece of unprofessionalism from Iran: it didn't warn airlines not to fly in the area (a NOTAM, Notice to Airmen.)  According to the tweet with this video, the airline immediately turned around after seeing these missiles, but they are obviously a hazard to any airplane in the vicinity.

News reports show that there was infighting between Iran's IRGC and its president about whether to strike Israel.  The IRGC does not report to Iran's army - meaning there are two, independent armies. The IRGC is a designated terror group.  These missiles belonged to the IRGC, which characterized the strike not as deterrence or defensive but as "revenge."  

This is not how a professional army acts, or how a professional army speaks.  

Being unprofessional does not mean Iran isn't dangerous. It is a nuclear threshold state with an advanced military. This makes its unprofessionalism even more frightening: if ballistic missiles could explode prematurely, maybe a nuclear bomb could as well. 

Regime change would make he world - and Iran itself - a much safer place. 




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