The latest comes from an opinion piece in the Washington Post by David Ignatius:
The risk of a devastating regional war remains uncomfortably high. But White House officials said Tuesday they believe Biden’s efforts may be paying off. Iran may be reconsidering a plan for major retaliation after last Wednesday’s assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. Hezbollah, Iran’s proxy in Lebanon, is still a wild card, officials said.The Iranian response has been complicated by seeming confusion over the circumstances of Haniyeh’s death. Tehran at first claimed he was killed by an Israeli missile, requiring a similar Iranian response. But officials say that Tehran has concluded privately that he was instead eliminated by a concealed bomb, perhaps prompting a different response. The Iranian regime is said to have conducted similar targeted attacks in third countries.Tehran may also be dissuaded by the U.S. show of force this week, and secret White House communications passed via the Swiss embassy in Tehran and the Iranian mission at the United Nations. “Iran understands clearly that the United States is unwavering in its defense of our interests, our partners and our people. We have moved a significant amount of military assets to the region to underscore that principle,” a senior administration official messaged me.U.S. messages to Iran have also made clear that the risk of a major escalation is extremely high, with serious consequences for the stability of the new government of President Masoud Pezeshkian.
That's a lot of "mays" and no details on what, exactly, the consequences to Iran might be if they escalate beyond what Washington thinks is acceptable for Israel to bear. Based on the previous three years, where the US has only loosened up its position on Iran, forgive me if I don't think Iran is dissuaded by US bombers that can drop 5,000 lb explosives - but never, ever will use against Iran.
Saying Hezbollah is a wild card is an indication that Ignatius' sources are not as good as he thinks. hezbollah does what Iran tells it to. If it takes the lead in an attack ,it isn't because it is defying Iran - the only times it does that is when it does less, not more, than Iran wants.
We've already gone through lots of experts guessing what is going to happen. Two waves of attacks, where the first wave will be to test defenses? October 7 type attacks? Hezbollah taking the lead? Timing it for Tisha B'Av next Monday night/Tuesday?
No one knows.
Here's what we do know:
Iran is making the decision to attack based on regaining honor, not self defense or retaliating in kind. It was embarrassed that there was such a giant intelligence failure and wants to project strength to its "axis of resistance" partners.
Because it is driven by honor, there is no way they will not attack. To them, there is no choice. They have been sounding the war drums to their people for days - they cannot climb down that tree.
Iran is already playing a psychological war. It is enjoying Israelis' unease as they wait for the attack, and very much enjoys seeing the Tel Aviv stock market go down, for example. It knows that the longer it waits with a credible threat, it hurts Israel's economy.
Iran is winning the psychological war. While it is making public threats to Israel and its infrastructure, no one is publicly describing what the response would be, except very general statements about Lebanon, not Iran or Yemen.
Israel is, publicly at least, purely on the defensive, except for continuing to do what it has been doing in Gaza, the West Bank and Lebanon.
That's about it. Everything now is about optics, not anything real. Israel is not handling the optics as well as it should. (That's one of the reasons I wrote my post earlier today about Kharg Island - to get possibilities like that in the public radar.) Even a public statement that actions speak louder than words would be welcome.
I hope Israel has a plan to counterattack immediately in an appropriate way. Maybe unconventionally - cyberattack, another major assassination, destroying an important monument in the middle of Tehran without hurting any people, or something similar - but something that sends an unmistakable message of both high capability and a conscious choice of restraint, letting Iran know that next time there will be no limits.
But for now, everything we are reading is a combination of purposeful leaks and wishful thinking. Take it all with a grain of salt.
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