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Thursday, April 04, 2024

Friday is "Quds Day." Will Iran start a war?

Iran has vowed to retaliate against the assassination of major Revolutionary Guards generals in Damascus, and they will be buried on Friday.

Which is "Quds Day," the holiday to "liberate Jerusalem" that the late Ayatollah Khomeini declared for the last Friday of every Ramadan.

The current Supreme Leader of Iran, Ayatollah Khamenei, isn't shy about his penchant for promoting violence. As Tehran Times reports in English, 

Central to the Leader’s vision for Quds Day is the promotion of Jihad and self-reliance in the struggle for Palestinian liberation. He has called for a referendum in Palestine to determine its future, emphasizing the restoration of Palestinian rights and the rejection of Zionism.
He's not referring to any "personal jihad." As Iran's president Raisi said Thursday night, "the Islamic Republic of Iran considers defense as the legitimate right of all resistance groups and loudly supports the movement of resistance in Palestine, Lebanon, Yemen and all Islamic countries."

Funny how he classifies what these groups are doing as "defense." 

But he also makes it clear that this is a war between all of Iran's satellites and Israel, not just Israel and Hamas. eave it to the Iranians to frame things properly while most of the Western media still gets it so wrong.

Iranian news site articles are nearly all about Israel.



But they are not beating the drumbeats of preparing their people for war, from what I can tell.

I don't think Iran will start shooting rockets at Israel tomorrow or anytime soon. They still prefer proxy wars to direct wars, and the bigger question is whether Hezbollah would risk escalating. My guess is that we will see an increase of rockets and drones from Yemen, Syria and Iraq, though. And Islamic Jihad will try to dig up some hidden short range rockets to shoot towards nearby Jewish communities to make it appear that Israel has not finished the job.

We'll see.




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