First, it pints out something I have alluded to before: the percentage of male UNRWA worker deaths is much higher than for females, which is statistically unlikely if deaths are random since most UNRWA workers in Gaza are female:
But then comes the interesting part. The author finds that there is a high correlation between UNRWA female deaths and total named deaths reported from Gaza hospitals in Gaza in terms of deaths per thousand.
The writer then compares how this chart diverges with the supposed total of deaths has gone up in recent months:
He doesn't mention it, but look how straight that "total claimed deaths" line is since December. Almost as if people are declaring a total number of deaths to fit numbers that were made up beforehand.
This appears to further strengthen the case for using the UNRWA female staff deaths numbers, and the closely matching numbers from hospital records, as a proxy for the actual mortality numbers in Gaza. If we did this, it would suggest that around 18,000 (not 32,414) had died in Gaza since Oct 7.Alternatively, the gap between the hospital records and the total claimed numbers may be an indication of the number of Hamas combatants killed (the IDF itself estimates 13,000 combatants killed, for example). Combatants are, after all, less likely to be recorded in hospital datasets.And since the combatants are likely to be predominantly male, this could also explain the disproportionate number of male deaths in the UNRWA data.
So either there really are 32,000 deaths but Hamas is counting nearly all 13,000 militants as women and children, or there are far fewer deaths altogether.
This is at least the third report that shows the statistical anomalies of total reported deaths in Gaza, all from different angles. Any way you look at it, the number of women and children killed are not close to the number being reported.
