Zaher Jabarin, who is Hamas' official in charge of prisoners in Israel, went on Turkey's TRT yesterday.
According to the Meir Amit ITIC, he said that Israeli hostages will be held until all estimated 8,500 Palestinian prisoners are released. He said the number of abductees held by the “resistance” was large enough that it could impose all its conditions.
That means that the 3-1 ratio of prisoners for hostages will end very soon.
As I've mentioned before, the women and children and foreign hostages are a headache for Hamas, and they lose nothing by releasing them. They always intended to hold onto men and soldiers, remembering the absurd 1000-1 trade of prisoners for Gilad Shalit, and hoping Israelis will keep pressure on the government to keep releasing prisoners.
At what point would the price become too high?
Clearly domestic politics and Israeli pressure is part of the equation. It is less costly and risky to keep a ceasefire going and get 10 hostages a day than to attempt to rescue them.
But at some point Israel has to draw a bright red line: for example, no prisoners who were convicted of murder. No prisoners who were ringleaders of attacks should ever be released. No one with a life sentence.
If Israel hadn't released Yahya Sinwar in the Shalit deal, 10/7 may never have happened. Every life is precious, but Shalit's life in 2011 was not worth 1,200 dead Israelis in 2023.
Hindsight is 20/20 but it can help predict the future, too. Prisoners who have any chance of leading future terror attacks must be off the table.
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