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Tuesday, July 14, 2015

A bad deal

HufPo describes the just-announced nuclear deal:

Iran reached a historic deal with six world powers on Tuesday that promises to curb Tehran’s controversial nuclear program in exchange for economic sanctions relief.

The accord was announced on Tuesday by Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif and the European Union's policy chief Federica Mogherini in a joint statement in the Austrian capital.

"What we have in front of us today ... is the result of very hard work," Mogherini said.

"It is a decision that can open the way to a new chapter in international relations," she continued, "I think this is a sign of hope for the entire world."

The breakthrough comes after months of thorny negotiations between Iran and the so-called P5+1 group -- the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council and Germany.

Under the deal, Tehran’s nuclear ability would be significantly limited for more than a decade, The New York Times reported. In return, the six world powers would agree to lift international oil and financial sanctions against Iran

Tehran would also allow inspectors from the U.N's International Atomic Energy Agency to seek visits to Iranian military sites as part of their monitoring duties, a senior diplomat told The Associated Press. However, such visits could be denied or delayed by the Iranian government. In such cases, an arbitration board composed of Iran and the six world powers would have to be convened to determine the right of access.
In other words - anytime, anywhere inspections are finished. Iran can delay them indefinitely.

A joke.

In addition, Iran accepted a "snapback" plan that will restore sanctions in 65 days if it violates the accords, Reuters reported.

One that would require unwilling partners like Russia, China and even Germany (which has large financial ties with Iran) to agree with it.

A joke.

What about waiting for approval by Congress? Well, according to Iranian media, there will be an end-run around Congress by getting the UN to agree to these provisions:

The agreement, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), will, according to Iranian officials, be presented to the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), which will adopt a resolution in seven to 10 days making the JCPOA an official document.

Based on the agreement, which has been concluded with due regard for Iran’s red lines, the world powers recognize Iran’s civilian nuclear program, including the country’s right to the complete nuclear cycle.

The UNSC sanctions against the Islamic Republic, including all economic and financial bans, will be lifted at once under a mutually agreed framework and through a new UN resolution.

None of the Iranian nuclear facilities will be dismantled or decomissioned.

Furthermore, nuclear research and development activities on all types of centrifuges, including advanced IR-6 and IR-8 machines, will continue.

The nuclear-related economic and financial restrictions imposed by the United States and the European Union (EU) targeting the Iranian banking, financial, oil, gas, petrochemical, trade, insurance and transport sectors will at once be annulled with the beginning of the implementation of the agreement.

The arms embargo imposed against the Islamic Republic will be annulled and replaced with certain restrictions, which themselves will be entirely removed after a period of five years.

Additionally, tens of billions of dollars in Iranian revenue frozen in foreign banks will be unblocked.

A total of 800 natural persons and legal entities, including the Central Bank of Iran (CBI), the Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines and the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC), will be taken off sanctions lists.
No longer a joke.

A tragedy - and a blueprint for a new holocaust.

More short term, it means that Hezbollah and Syria's Assad regime will become strengthened, Hamas and Islamic Jihad will enjoy lots more cash, and Iranian state-run terrorism will accelerate worldwide. Until Iran has the weapon to launch against Israel that will make the terror attacks of the past decades seem quaint.